Spurs at Hornets

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
New Orleans – 46.00% (16th)
San Antonio – 44.43% (5th)

Rebound Differential
New Orleans – +1.01 (10th)
San Antonio – +.97 (12th)

Point Differential
New Orleans – +5.28 (6th)
San Antonio – +4.79 (8th)

Shooting
New Orleans – 46.56% (8th)
San Antonio – 45.74% (14th)

3-Point Shooting
New Orleans – 38.9% (3rd)
San Antonio – 36.9% (11th)

Free Throw Shooting
New Orleans – 76.86% (11th)
San Antonio – 76.10% (15th)

Turnovers
New Orleans – 11.87 (3rd)
San Antonio – 12.62 (4th)

Fouls
New Orleans – 18.67 (1st)
San Antonio – 18.74 (2nd)

Pace Factor
New Orleans – 92.1 (26th)
San Antonio – 90.8 (28th)

Individual Match Ups

Point Guard
Chris Paul & Jannero Pargo v Tony Parker & Jacque Vaughn – This is certainly the main event as I see it. Back and forth and back forth they’ll go trying to wear each other out. These guys play basically the same type of game; breaking down defenses off the dribble; creating for their teammates; and scoring in bunches when needed. Paul is certainly the more skilled of the two, but it’s not by much right now mainly because Parker is the better mid-range shooter. And while Tony having considerably more post season experience can be overplayed at times, in a match up that figures to be this close any edge - no matter how slight - could be crucial. I look for foul trouble to be a factor for both players at least once since neither is a great on-ball defender. Without a doubt this will be very fun to watch.

The Hornets are going to need Pargo to be at his instant offense best to offset some of Ginobili’s sizable contribution. Vaughn didn’t play much in the first round, but his on-ball defense figures to be critical in helping to contain CP3.

Shooting Guard
Morris Peterson & Bonzi Wells v Michael Finley & Manu Ginobili – Mo Pete has really been relegated to a place holding kind of starter. That might have to change here because he could be one of NO’s best options to defend Manu. Finley actually played a lot versus Phoenix sliding over to SF when Ginobili checked in, but I expect Fin’s minutes to decrease against the more traditional Hornets.

Manu is going to be absolutely key for the Spurs because NO has trouble matching up with him. If the Hornets can’t find a combination that is able to keep Ginobili somewhat in check they will be in BIG trouble. As unreliable as Bonzi is these days he could be very useful if he’s able to post Manu up and put some fouls on the Argentinean.

Small Forward
Peja Stojakovic & Julian Wright v Bruce Bowen & Ime Udoka – When Peja is engaged mentally and his jumper is on the Hornets are almost unbeatable. The question is can he get it done against superior defenders like Bowen and Udoka? I kinda doubt it, but Stojakovic did shoot 60.7% from deep in round one. Bruce’s defensive prowess seems like it will go to waste in this series since it’s unlikely he can check West, and there's no way he can deal with Paul.

Ime might get a turn on West, but he too has zero chance against CP3. I anticipate the slowly rounding into form Brent Barry seeing a lot of time at SF since Peja can’t expose Brent’s poor defense off the dribble. It’s probably not realistic to expect a rookie to perform well in this role, but I think Wright will be NO’s best alternative on Ginobili. Julian has the combination of length, athleticism and quickness that could frustrate Manu into some bad shots.

Power Forward
David West & Ryan Bowen v Tim Duncan & Robert Horry – While this might seem like the main event part two, I don’t see West guarding Duncan all that much because the height and length disparity between the two is too great. This is a monumental test for David since SA can throw multiple defenders at him, all of which will be bigger, stronger and longer than he is. For West to be successful he’s going to have to put the ball on the floor a little more than he’s used to, while still knocking down mid-range jumpers when open. As long as Tim is patient on offense he should have no problem producing in this series.

Horry started to get sea legs back versus the Suns after an extended absence from the court (right knee). I’m sure he’ll get spot minutes here and there, but I don’t see him playing a big role yet. Bowen is an energizer/hustler/agitator who might get a chance on Ginobili if nothing else works. Also look for Ryan to be the designated fouler if the “Hack-a-Dunc” strategy is employed.

Center
Tyson Chandler & Hilton Armstrong v Kurt Thomas & Fabricio Oberto – Chandler has a big challenge ahead of him since he’ll be the primary defender on Duncan. It’s imperative that Ty keeps his emotions in check and doesn’t get into foul trouble because the depth chart gets mighty thin behind him. It took a while, but Thomas has finally wrestled the starting spot from Fab. Kurt’s job will be to draw Chandler away from the basket on offense by making some jumpers, and to keep Ty off the boards by always putting a body on him.

Armstrong will be needed against Tim, but I doubt the referees will let him play enough to make a difference. If Hilton falters, and Chandler has foul problems, coming off the deep pine for the Hornets would be Melvin Ely and/or Chris Andersen. Yuck! I look for Oberto’s flopping to irritate both Ty and West sooner or later. Other than that Fabby has nice hands, can stick an open J, move without the ball and perform in pressure situations.

Coach
Byron Scott v Gregg Popovich – These two really coach the same way; defense first; precision offensive sets; and mandatory intensity and smart play at all times. They both are impeccable in terms of preparation, commanding the respect of their players and diagramming plays out of huddles. Where I give Pop the slight edge is adjustments, both in game and game-to-game. That said, it’s unlikely that a coaching decision/mistake decides this series.

Overall

These two clubs split the season series 2-2, with each squad winning one at home and one on the road. NO ended up with the home court because they had a better conference record…by one game. When analyzing the box scores I noticed that the winner always shot better from the field (by an average of 10.4%) and always had more rebounds (by an average of 10 rpg). The weird thing is that every other stat was virtually even in all four contests. (With the exception of assists, which skewed toward the winner in the last two games.) To me this shows just how even these two teams are in all facets of the game.

Since these are two of the slowest paced clubs in the NBA, along with being two of the lowest turnover squads as well, these tilts should be tight, low scoring, grind it out affairs where every possession counts. They are also the top two teams in terms of fouls committed, so look for free throws to be few and far between.

Don’t worry though, the quality of the play will still be extremely high. I mean, we’re not talking Knicks-Heat late 90’s here. Not by a long shot. Think more along the lines of Utah-Houston in the opening round last year. Round ball purists will definitely love it.

The Hornets are the better shooting club, and the Spurs the superior defensive squad. CP3 and TP cancel each other out, as do West and Duncan in terms of production. So the difference really boils down to Manu. And more specifically, who can close games in crunch time better, Ginobili or Paul? As unstoppable as he is, I just see SA having a plan that works against Chris. I also envision D West struggling to get to his sweet spots on offense. And it doesn’t take a genius to know that Chandler will be in severe foul trouble at least once, if not more. I’m not even mentioning the Spurs tremendous advantage in the area of big game experience.

Prediction: NO had a great season, and has a bright future, but they just aren’t ready yet. SA in 6.

Tap Dancing & Year End Awards

The annual ‘Tap Dancing’ section is about one team too long for my liking this year. On the other hand I feel pretty good about going eight for eight in the toughest conference in the history of the league (West). All three of my misses were in the East, and I knew back in October that the bottom of the Least would be a total crapshoot. Gregory Hines has nothing on me!

I had in…

1. Chicago Bulls (33-49) – In retrospect Luol Deng and Ben Gordon turning down lucrative long term contract extensions before the season started was s sign of things to come for what turned out to be the most disappointing team in the Association. Kirk Hinrich stunk; Chris Duhon, Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah all went public with complaints; Scott Skiles was fired; and interim coach Jim Boylan was not retained. So they basically quit on two coaches and turned on each other. When these guys decide to mail it in, they really mail it in. Even with all that said, Hinrich, Thabo Sefolosha, Deng, Thomas and Noah is a decent starting five on paper…if their collective heads are on right. Things are not as bad as they seem in Chicago right now, and I see a bright future for these Bulls with a few changes.

7. Miami Heat (15-67) – Believe it or not, I knew this club would be bad before the season. The rationale being that they lost a bunch of talent from their title winning squad and didn’t replace it. Now did I think they’d be worst record in the NBA bad? Of course not, but the main reason I picked them to make the playoffs was that I really couldn’t see anybody in the East that could counter the Shaquille O’Neal/Dwyane Wade duo.

8. New Jersey Nets (34-48) – You can sum up the ’07-08 Nets in three words…“Jason Kidd quit.” It’s really that simple. Of course it didn’t help that Nenad Krstic’s recovery from a torn left ACL was insufferably slow. So much so that he still didn’t look to be moving right after appearing in 45 games. I was even more disappointed in NJ’s performance after trading Kidd. To me they should have still been able to make a push for the playoffs. I’m sure the Nets roster is in for some tweaks this summer, but a starting five of Devin Harris, Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, Josh Boone and a healthy Krstic should be enough to compete in the East.

I had out…

12. Washington Wizards (43-39) – I already admitted in the ‘Mid-Season Report’ that I was wrong about Washington. But back when I was making predictions I didn’t expect Gilbert Arenas to miss 69 games with an injured left knee. Instead of going in the tank without Gil, the Wiz played more like a “real” team. They had better ball movement on offense, more camaraderie as a group and most importantly they improved their defense and rebounding. In the two statistics that I hold most dear Washington went from 47.3% to 46.1% in defensive field goal percentage and -1.8 to +.4 in rebound differential. Those two numbers plus no Arenas made the Wiz a completely different club than I expected. President Ernie Grunfeld needs to be careful this off season though because his current group may have maxed out their potential. Sign & trades of both GA and Antawn Jamison might be the prudent course of action, and even letting them go outright probably makes more sense than resigning both of them.

13. Atlanta Hawks (37-45) – Let’s get one thing straight right from the start here, eight games under .500 does NOT mean you’re a playoff team. It’s a great story that they qualified for the playoffs for the first time since the ’98-99 season, but the truth of the matter is that this squad really isn’t that good. I also expect Atlanta to return basically the same cast of characters next year unless Director Billy Knight is replaced. While a new coach might help some if the personnel stays the same, I see the bottom of the East catching and passing the Hawks if their roster remains mostly intact.

15. Philadelphia 76ers (40-42) – The Sixers are a testament to how much success you can achieve in the NBA if you just play hard every possession of every game. Philly has a decent center (Samuel Dalembert), an above average PG (Andre Miller) and a good SF (Andre Iguodala). The rest of the guys on this club are either too young or washed up. Everybody likes to say how the Sixers run and gun, but when I watch them I don’t see it frankly. What they do is outwork you with hustle, athleticism and a never say die attitude. That’s all well and good, but it usually doesn’t last, and ultimately ends up with the coach being fired when the team’s effort begins to wane. More talent is what Philly really needs, and I’d advise GM Ed Stefanski to be very careful resigning Iguodala this summer. The reason being that no matter what spin the organization tries to put on it, rookie Thaddeus Young is not a PF. So this means that AI2 and Thad play the same position, and if they really believe Young is all that (I’m not totally sold yet myself), then a sign & trade of Iguodala for a legitimate PF makes an awful lot of sense.

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Kevin Garnett (Boston)
2. Shane Battier (Houston)
3. Tayshaun Prince (Detroit)

All-Defense Team

PG – Rajon Rondo (Boston)
SG – Shane Battier (Houston)
SF – Tayshaun Prince (Detroit)
PF – Kevin Garnett (Boston)
C – Marcus Camby (Denver)

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Manu Ginobili (San Antonio)
2. Josh Childress (Atlanta)
3. James Posey (Boston)

Executive of the Year

1. Danny Ainge (Boston)
2. Mitch Kupchak (Lakers)
3. Daryl Morey (Houston)

Coach of the Year

1. Byron Scott (New Orleans)
2. Rick Adelman (Houston)
3. Phil Jackson (Lakers)

Rookie of the Year

1. Al Horford (Atlanta)
2. Luis Scola (Houston)
3. Kevin Durant (Seattle)

All-Rookie Team

PG – Rodney Stuckey (Detroit)
SG – Kevin Durant (Seattle)
SF – Jamario Moon (Toronto)
PF – Luis Scola (Houston)
C – Al Horford (Atlanta)

Most Valuable Player

1. Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
2. Chris Paul (New Orleans)
3. LeBron James (Cleveland)
4. Kevin Garnett (Boston)
5. Dwight Howard (Orlando)

All-NBA

PG – Chris Paul (New Orleans)
SG – Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
SF – LeBron James (Cleveland)
PF – Kevin Garnett (Boston)
C – Dwight Howard (Orlando)

Second Team

PG – Deron Williams (Utah)
SG – Manu Ginobili (San Antonio)
SF – Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas)
PF – Carlos Boozer (Utah)
C – Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix)

Third Team

PG – Steve Nash (Phoenix)
SG – Allen Iverson (Denver)
SF – Paul Pierce (Boston)
PF – Chris Bosh (Toronto)
C – Tim Duncan (San Antonio)

Nuggets at Lakers

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Los Angeles – 44.53% (6th)
Denver – 45.65% (14th)

Rebound Differential
Los Angeles – +1.35 (8th)
Denver – -1.29 (21st)

Point Differential
Los Angeles – +7.25 (3rd)
Denver – +3.70 (11th)

Shooting
Los Angeles – 47.64% (3rd)
Denver – 46.99% (6th)

3-Point Shooting
Los Angeles – 37.8% (6th)
Denver – 35.5% (19th)

Free Throw Shooting
Los Angeles – 76.92% (10th)
Denver – 75.07% (19th)

Turnovers
Los Angeles – 14.09 (11th)
Denver – 14.67 (21st)

Fouls
Los Angeles – 20.62 (15th)
Denver – 21.11 (17th)

Pace Factor
Los Angeles – 98.0 (6th)
Denver – 102.3 (1st)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Derek Fisher & Jordan Farmar v Anthony Carter & Chucky Atkins – Fisher has been huge for the Lakers this season. His leadership and 3-point shooting has been key to LA’s meteoric rise, and the torn tendon in his right foot hasn’t affected his play at all. Carter is really just a place holder who makes sure the Nugs get into their offensive sets early in the first and third quarters.

The spark that Farmar brings off the pine with his athleticism, play making, finishing and shooting ability is invaluable to the Lakers success. Jordan is the perfect compliment to Derek in that he plays the game faster and is able to stay with quicker players. Atkins is still rounding back into form after missing 58 games this season. If he’s able to contribute his 3-point shooting could help.

Shooting Guard
Kobe Bryant & Sasha Vujacic v Allen Iverson & J.R. Smith – If/when Kobe and Allen are defending each other it will be must see TV. Unfortunately I don’t think Iverson will be on Bryant all that much because triple ocho will eat him alive in the mid-post. Look for Kobe to on AI down the stretch though. The story is the same for both really; when they involve their teammates consistently they have a much better chance to win.

The bench guys both are 3-point shooting specialists. The difference being that Vujacic is also a quality defender. Sasha is also an agitator which is always a nice quality in the post season. J.R. doesn’t bring much else to the table besides shooting, but if he’s on Denver is tough to beat.

Small Forward
Vladimir Radmanovic & Luke Walton v Carmelo Anthony & Linas Kleiza – When Radmanovic’s head is into the game he makes LA ultra-dangerous on offense. Besides shooting Vlad can also put it on the floor and is an underrated passer as well. That said he has ZERO chance to stop Melo. Anthony is definitely stronger that Radmanovic and he’s probably quicker too. The Lakers may have to let Melo “get his” and focus on stopping everyone else.

Linas the Menace is one of my favorite players and would probably start for a lot teams in the league. He and Smith really give the Nugs a potent bench scoring duo. Walton has been slowed by a right hamstring injury recently. Not that it’s affected his play though because he still sucks. Unfortunately I don’t expect to see Trevor Ariza (broken right foot) until the Conference Final at the earliest.

Power Forward
Lamar Odom & Ronny Turiaf v Kenyon Martin & Eduardo Najera – Odom has really settled into his niche since the arrival of Gasol. Not only is he LA’s best interior defender and rebounder, but he also shoots over 50% and can lead a fast break at 6’10. Martin is not quite the athletic finisher/rebounder he was after microfracture surgery on both knees. Nevertheless K-Mart is still an effective player and knows his role in Denver’s scheme.

The backups are almost carbon copies of each other, except Turiaf is much younger and more athletic. Najera is the better shooter with range out to deep, but Ronny is tougher around the rim and a superior shot locker. Each guy will hustle every second they are out there though.

Center
Pau Gasol & Chris Mihm v Marcus Camby & Steven Hunter – The Nugs never faced Pau this season so they’ll have to adjust to the dimension he brings to the Lakers. Fortunately for Denver Camby might be the perfect guy to defend Gasol. Marcus has the length and quickness to stay with the Spaniard everywhere on the court. However in doing this Camby will no longer be able to help off Pau and protect his teammates’ backs. Marcus’ lack of offense will help Gasol conserve energy on that end.

The bench situation is dicey for both teams. Mihm looks the best he has in a while, but he’s still hampered by a bad right foot/ankle/Achilles. If he’s not moving well enough to compete D.J. Mbenga could get the call if needed. I don’t expect Andrew Bynum (left knee) back until the second round at the earliest. Hunter is getting the call only because Nene has been slowed by a strained right groin. I doubt any of the backups play much.

Coach
Phil Jackson v George Karl – This is another old school collision, but this time I see a clear cut winner. These guys are pretty even across the board except in one area. While Karl has the edge when it comes to in game adjustments, Jackson is one of the best all time at game-to-game adjustments. Anything the Nugs have success with you can be sure won’t work in the next game.

Overall

This is going to be a fast paced, high scoring and very entertaining series. Defense might be optional at times but intensity won’t be. I expect some serious trash talking to go on too as “Team Tat” loves to bump their gums.

For Denver to have any chance they are going to have to play some defense. The reason being they can NOT outscore LA. If it turns it an up and down affair the Lakers depth will wear the Nugs out. Denver must also remember to share the ball on offense no matter the situation. Melo and especially AI must avoid the temptation to try and “take over” when things get tough. Excessive amounts of one-on-one play will not beat LA’s defense.

The plan for the Lakers is simple, execute your triangle offense and take advantage of the Nugs porous D. If LA makes three or more passes in the half court they will get layup after layup after layup. The good news for Laker fans is they are versatile enough to win an up tempo game as well.

Prediction: Enjoyable to watch but with LA in control the majority of the time. Lakers in 5.

Jazz at Rockets

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Houston – 43.25% (2nd)
Utah – 46.07% (17th)

Rebound Differential
Houston – +3.97 (2nd)
Utah – +3.07 (4th)

Point Differential
Houston – +4.68 (9th)
Utah – +6.87 (4th)

Shooting
Houston – 44.83% (21st)
Utah – 49.74% (2nd)

3-Point Shooting
Houston – 34.2% (26th)
Utah – 37.2% (10th)

Free Throw Shooting
Houston – 72.62% (25th)
Utah – 75.94% (16th)

Turnovers
Houston – 13.72 (9th)
Utah – 14.63 (19th)

Fouls
Houston – 19.62 (6th)
Utah – 24.02 (30th)

Pace Factor
Houston – 92.9 (21st)
Utah – 95.6 (11th)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Rafer Alston & Bobby Jackson v Deron Williams & Ronnie Price – Alston is expected to miss the first two games of the series with a strained right hamstring. This truly hurts the Rox because Rafer had really come into his own in terms of running a team this season. Even when Skip comes back I doubt he’ll be 100%. D Wil is dealing with a bruised tailbone himself, but should still dominate this match up thoroughly. None of Houston’s PG’s have anywhere near the size/quickness combination necessary to deal with Williams, including deep bench man Aaron Brooks.

Jackson’s best days are long, long gone and he’s a serious downgrade from Alston as a starter. Brooks is no better as a backup either, as his game is very immature at this point. Price is an instant offense energizer type who does a decent job in the few minutes he gets behind Deron.

Shooting Guard
Tracy McGrady & Luther Head v Ronnie Brewer & Kyle Korver – Mr. “Never Been Out of the First Round” is dealing with a strained left shoulder as the playoffs arrive. Not good since the Rox will need T-Mac to carry them scoring wise with Yao Ming out (broken left foot). McGrady is going to be looked to by his teammates to get them big buckets in both crunch time and when the shot clock is running down. Brewer possesses the athleticism and tenacity to bother Tracy on defense. Ronnie is also very active moving without the ball on offense, so T-Mac can’t rest on that end.

Both bench guys fill the role of 3-point shooting specialist for their clubs. Korver’s importance to the Jazz has been well documented (38-12 since his arrival), but with Rafer out Houston could need Head’s shooting just as much.

Small Forward
Shane Battier & Steve Novak v Andrei Kirilenko & Matt Harpring – Battier makes for the third Rocket to be dealing with an injury (strained right hamstring). This is unfortunate for Houston since Shane is probably their best option to contain D Wil. Utah jumps to another level when Kirilenko’s head is in the game and he’s shooting his jumper with confidence. Look for AK-47 to log a lot of minutes checking McGrady.

I don’t expect Novak to see much time unless no other Rocket is making 3-pointers. Harpring doesn’t move as well as he used to, but he’s still a gritty agitator with a reliable mid-range jumper.

Power Forward
Luis Scola & Chuck Hayes v Carlos Boozer & Paul Millsap – This is the under the radar marquee match up in my mind. Scola and Boozer actually do a lot of the same things. They move well without the ball, can make a mid-range J, score in the post and rebound. I’m hoping they end up defending each other too because it will be very intriguing to watch. Carlos has the strength advantage and Luis the quickness, so foul trouble is a possibility for both.

Hayes’ defensive ability could be extremely important for Houston with Yao out. Millsap is currently suffering from a jammed left big toe and his explosiveness to rebounds and loose balls alike isn’t right.

Center
Dikembe Mutombo & Carl Landry v Memo Okur & Jarron Collins – If Deke can’t guard Boozer then I don’t expect to see him much this series because I know he can’t check Okur. No one is probably happier that Yao Ming isn’t playing than Memo, even though the Turkish national did a fine job on Yao last year. Okur’s game has really been rounding into form lately, and when he’s on from deep the Jazz are very tough to beat.

Landry has been huge for the Rox since Yao went down aligning with Scola in a “small ball” front court. Carl is very active, not afraid to mix it up down low and has a nice touch around the basket out to mid-range. Collins is unlikely to see anything more than spot minutes.

Coach
Rick Adelman v Jerry Sloan – This in an old school clash that I’m frankly excited to see unfold. Sloan is a master at preparation, getting his squad to execute on offense and diagramming plays in huddles. Adelman’s approach is more malleable lending him to be better at adjustments, both in game and game-to-game. With Jerry you always know what you’re going to get, so it’s up to Rick to find the cracks and take advantage. Too close to call…

Overall

Even though Houston has home court advantage again as these clubs meet for the second straight year, I’m not optimistic about their chances. For openers they are going to miss all the easy buckets they get by just throwing the ball into Yao in the low post and letting him work. Beyond that though, three of their next four most important players are also dinged up. I just don’t see how home court will be enough to overcome all that.

As long as Utah executes on offense they should be fine, but I still need to see them work on a few things in this series. First off they need to match the Rockets intensity on defense. As the playoffs go on the Jazz are going to really need to step up their D and there’s no better place to start then the first round. Next they need to at least become viable on the road. I’m not saying they have to win every game away from Salt Lake, but staying close and giving themselves a chance, rather than getting blown out, would be nice.

Prediction: Not as competitive as most think. Utah in 5.

Mavericks at Hornets

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
New Orleans – 46.00% (16th)
Dallas – 44.31% (4th)

Rebound Differential
New Orleans – +1.01 (10th)
Dallas – +2.74 (5th)

Point Differential
New Orleans – +5.28 (6th)
Dallas – +4.53 (10th)

Shooting
New Orleans – 46.56% (8th)
Dallas – 46.43% (9th)

3-Point Shooting
New Orleans – 38.9% (3rd)
Dallas – 35.2% (20th)

Free Throw Shooting
New Orleans – 76.86% (11th)
Dallas – 81.45% (1st)

Turnovers
New Orleans – 11.87 (3rd)
Dallas – 12.64 (5th)

Fouls
New Orleans – 18.67 (1st)
Dallas – 21.78 (23rd)

Pace Factor
New Orleans – 92.1 (26th)
Dallas – 92.5 (24th)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Chris Paul & Mike James v Jason Kidd & Tyronn Lue – This is where Dallas fans start to miss Devin Harris. Not that anyone can stop CP3, but Harris would have had a much better chance than Kidd does. I expect Paul to absolutely destroy J Kidd, going by him at will and reeking havoc in the lane. Jason’s best move would be to post Chris up and try to get Paul into foul trouble.

The guys on the pine don’t see much action, but Lue’s defense might be necessary if CP3 is running too wild. Likewise James will get an opportunity to come in and knock down some 3’s if others aren’t making theirs.

Shooting Guard
Morris Peterson & Bonzi Wells v Jerry Stackhouse & Jason Terry – Mo Pete is mainly a defensive stopper these days as he doesn’t get many touches with the Hornets. That said Mo can still get hot from deep on occasion. Stack is just returning from a right groin injury and will be on a short leash if his offense isn’t happening right away.

Terry is really a starter and a big key to the Mavs success. Whether it be filling the lane on a fast break, making a big 3, defensive stop or clutch drive, JET always seems to the energizer when things are going well for Dallas. Bonzi has been up and down in NO (shocker!), but his playoff experience and ability to post up smaller players can’t be overlooked.

Small Forward
Peja Stojakovic & Julian Wright v Josh Howard & Eddie Jones – Howard has been a little inconsistent for the Mavs this season, and now would be a great time to turn things around. Josh has the ability and quickness to take it to Peja on both ends rendering Stojakovic useless more or less. Peja needs to do more than be a spot up 3-point shooter in this series. Something…anything…

Wright and Jones are at diametrically opposed points in their careers right now. Julian is a rookie who has just started to show some promise. His athleticism could be key in containing Howard if Stojakovic can’t get the job done. Eddie’s best days are long gone, but he’s still a crafty veteran that can make a big shot or get a key stop.

Power Forward
David West & Melvin Ely v Dirk Nowitzki & Brandon Bass – This should be a very entertaining battle. On the surface it may appear that West and Nowitzki are different players. Dirk the perimeter shooter and David the banger down low. The reality though is that both are versatile scores who get most of their points in the mid-range areas. I don’t really see an advantage for West in the post because Nowitzki is so much taller. Conversely, I don’t think David has the quickness to stay with Dirk in space. We shall see.

The backups strongly favor the Mavs. Bass has been nothing short of a revelation this year. He is a beast down low when he puts his mind to, and also plays very well off Nowitzki. Ely doesn’t see the court often but he gives the Hornets another big body.

Center
Tyson Chandler & Hilton Armstrong v Erick Dampier & Juwan Howard – Chandler’s energy, athleticism and activity are going to sorely test the plodding and frequently unmotivated Dampier. If Erick gets into early foul trouble or is sleepwalking Ty will dominate the glass and jam home at least five alley-oops a game. Then again Chandler needs to stay out of foul trouble himself because NO is not the same squad when he’s not out there as their last line of defense.

I had high hopes for Armstrong this season but he really didn’t deliver. He is a long active body though that can do some things if the refs let him. I don’t expect to see Juwan very much if at all.

Coach
Byron Scott v Avery Johnson – This tilt has a little extra added flavor since it seems Johnson’s job is on the line here if Dallas doesn’t advance. Both guys are impeccable in terms of preparation, motivation and commanding the respect of their players. Where I think Scott has the edge is adjustments, both in game and game-to-game. Avery has a tendency to panic and overreact when things aren’t going his way. Which is probably his head is on the chopping block.

Overall

This should be yet another highly competitive and hotly contested series. The questions all seem to focus on NO’s lack of experience, but it seems to me that the Mavs should be the club under scrutiny. For starters Dallas was only 12-11 over the final two months as opposed to the Hornets shiny 17-8 record. Then there’s also the question of Dirk’s high left ankle sprain. Yes he’s playing, but he doesn’t seem to be moving as well to me. Although the big German’s intensity does seem to be at all time high right now.

These teams are so evenly matched that tactics and the little things will probably make all the difference. I’d suggest that the Mavs double CP3 as soon as he crosses half court in the last five minutes of the game, sooner if need be. Dallas has to take the ball out of Paul’s hands and make someone else beat them. The Mavs also need to execute their half court offense and only fast break when the opportunity presents itself because a running game is just what NO wants.

While it’s true Chris Paul doesn’t have any post season experience, I think that talent like his transcends that kind of thing. As long as the Hornets defend like they are capable of, play under control in their half court offense and not let the bigness of the moment get to them they should be fine. I suppose that’s easier said than done, but with B Scott and CP3 running the show I have faith.

Prediction: This will be a back and forth affair where Paul steps up and becomes a guy that can win a series by himself. NO in 7.

Suns at Spurs

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
San Antonio – 44.43% (5th)
Phoenix – 45.61% (13th)

Rebound Differential
San Antonio – +.97 (12th)
Phoenix – -2.39 (25th)

Point Differential
San Antonio – +4.79 (8th)
Phoenix – +5.04 (7th)

Shooting
San Antonio – 45.74% (14th)
Phoenix – 50.02% (1st)

3-Point Shooting
San Antonio – 36.9% (11th)
Phoenix – 39.3% (1st)

Free Throw Shooting
San Antonio – 76.10% (15th)
Phoenix – 78.30% (4th)

Turnovers
San Antonio – 12.62 (4th)
Phoenix – 14.43 (15th)

Fouls
San Antonio – 18.74 (2nd)
Phoenix – 19.91 (8th)

Pace Factor
San Antonio – 90.8 (28th)
Phoenix – 99.0 (4th)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Tony Parker & Jacque Vaughn v Steve Nash & Leandro Barbosa – It feels like I’ve written about this match up a million times already. This time Nash is a year older and yet another step slower. Parker on the other hand is in his prime and as quick as ever. Containing Tony’s penetration has to be priority #1 for the Suns.

The backups couldn’t be more different in their contributions. Vaughn is a guy that can play D and run a team, but not necessarily shoot or score. Barbosa is lightning quick and tends to score in bunches or be way off. If Leandro had any interest in defense, he’d be Phoenix’s best option to check Parker.

Shooting Guard
Michael Finley & Manu Ginobili v Raja Bell & Gordan Giricek – Finley and Bell bring pretty much the same things to the table, except Raja is a better defender and shooter. Both play smart and understand “team” ball.

Ginobili is a starter in all but name and really makes the Spurs go. Manu has easily been SA’s best and most important player this season. Flat out, the Spurs are not the same team without him. That’s why his strained left groin has to be such a huge concern. Look for Bell to be at his annoying best when he’s on Ginobili. Gira is far too lackadaisical to be counted on in the playoffs, but I guess he could make a big 3 or two.

Small Forward
Bruce Bowen & Ime Udoka v Grant Hill & Eric Piatkowski – Both starters are well into the downside of their careers. These days Bowen starts but is on a very short leash if he doesn’t produce. Hill has played well this year but a nagging right groin injury has shelved him recently, and almost certainly will limit his effectiveness in this series.

Udoka has played most of the crunch time minutes for SA over the second half of the season. Ime is almost a clone of Bruce (right down the corner 3-pointers) except that Udoka has more bulk and can handle bigger guys down low. I’m not sure Ime can guard Nash like BB can though. Pike is unlikely to play even if Grant can’t go.

Power Forward
Tim Duncan & Matt Bonner v Amare Stoudemire & Boris Diaw – Ah, the marquee match up that everyone wants to see. Except that Amare rarely defends Duncan anymore. Conversely, Tim has his work cut out for him trying to slow down Stat. Stoudemire has been on a serious tear since Shaq’s arrival and Duncan is going to draw the assignment down the stretch. Amare however will be allowed to “float” on defense and clean up the boards.

Since Robert Horry is sidelined indefinitely with a bruised right knee, the Red Rocket is going to have to step up. Bonner is a better shooter than Horry, but no where near the defender. Diaw could wind up playing a huge role in this series if Hill’s groin isn’t sound. If his head is into the game Boris is definitely the Suns x-factor.

Center
Fabricio Oberto & Kurt Thomas v Shaquille O’Neal & Brian Skinner – Oberto’s minutes have been steadily declining since the arrival of Thomas, and I expect that trend to continue here. Fab is a nice role player, but he can’t defend Stoudemire or O’Neal. Shaq was brought to Phoenix specifically to defend Duncan, and in their two regular season get-togethers The Diesel did a superb job checking the Big Fundamental. Shaq on Timmy should provide some great theater in crunch time.

KT is probably the Spurs best option to contain Amare. That said Stat is way too quick for Kurt, so what Thomas has to do is play strong positional defense, which happens to be one of his strengths. KT will also be able to draw either Shaq or Amare away from the basket with his ability to hit the mid-range shot. B Skins is a banger down low and little more. He’s unlikely to see time unless foul trouble becomes a factor.

Coach
Gregg Popovich v Mike D’Antoni – Yet another match up I feel I’ve typed about ad nauseam. I don’t think there’s anything D’Antoni does better than Pop. From preparation to in game diagramming of plays, Pop is one of the all time greats. Mike still tends to get that “deer in headlights” look too often for my liking.

Overall

I’m a little surprised at how many of the experts are writing SA off already. Are the Suns really that much better than the Spurs? Looking at their records over the final two months, they aren’t really that different (Phx 16-8, SA 17-9).

So what gives then?

Well the main thing is that the Spurs have three major contributors banged up. Besides Manu and Horry, Brent Barry has been hampered by a left calf strain for most of the season. SA really misses Brent and Robert’s 3-point shooting, and if Manu can’t go the Spurs are done.

As I see it though, Phoenix still has many of the same issues they’ve had with SA over the years. Yes, Shaq does a nice job on Duncan, but who controls Parker? No one that I see on their roster. And if Amare or O’Neal get into foul trouble the Suns will struggle big time.

To me it comes down to the same old question when these two squads face off. Who can dictate the pace of play? If it’s slow, can Phoenix play the type of defense as a unit that’s needed to beat the Spurs? If the tempo is fast, can SA score enough points to hang with the Suns?

This will be another hard fought series that can go either way. I’m in the minority in that I don’t think SA is dead just yet. They still play better team defense and do a better job taking care of the boards than Phoenix does. As much as I hate to say it, a few call from the officials could decide this one.

Prediction: Bucking the trend! Spurs in 7.

Wizards at Cavaliers

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Cleveland – 45.48% (11th)
Washington – 46.12% (19th)

Rebound Differential
Cleveland – +4.15 (1st)
Washington – +.40 (14th)

Point Differential
Cleveland – -.35 (16th)
Washington – -.33 (15th)

Shooting
Cleveland – 43.86% (28th)
Washington – 44.60% (22nd)

3-Point Shooting
Cleveland – 35.8% (15th)
Washington – 35.6% (18th)

Free Throw Shooting
Cleveland – 71.66% (28th)
Washington – 78.20% (5th)

Turnovers
Cleveland – 13.96 (10th)
Washington – 13.19 (8th)

Fouls
Cleveland – 20.87 (16th)
Washington – 19.58 (5th)

Pace Factor
Cleveland – 92.5 (22nd)
Washington – 92.0 (27th)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Delonte West & Daniel Gibson v Antonio Daniels & Gilbert Arenas – The comparison between the starter’s ability to run a team isn’t even close. AD is probably one of the most underrated floor generals in the league. D West on the other hand has always been a touch overrated in my book, and is best suited for the role of third guard. On the court Daniels is also the better defender, and his size and strength advantage could effectively take Delonte out of the game.

It’s funny to say, but both bench guys are filling the “instant offense” role for their respective clubs. Arenas (still recovering from left knee surgery) will be limited to 25 minutes per game and may see as many as 30 before the series is over. While there’s no doubt that Gil is the x-factor for the Wiz, he has to try and “fit in” more than usual, so his production level is far from certain. Gibson absolutely must make open 3-pointers or he’s pretty much useless.

Shooting Guard
Devin Brown & Sasha Pavlovic v DeShawn Stevenson & Roger Mason Jr. – The off guards for each squad do many of the same things too. Both work hard, are scrappy and very streaky shooters. The biggest difference I see is that Stevenson is a superior defender.

Sasha has already been ruled of this series with a sprained left ankle. That may mean we get a Damon Jones sighting or two, but I don’t Damon being that much of a factor. Mason is another hard nosed role player, but he also possesses a nice touch from downtown. Roger played very well recently filling in while DeShawn missed time down the stretch with a sore back.

Small Forward
LeBron James & Wally Szczerbiak v Caron Butler & Dominic McGuire – Certainly the marquee match up here as The King faces off against Tough Juice. Obviously no one can stop Bron, but Butler has as good a chance as anyone. Caron must make James work on defense so LeBron can’t conserve energy on that end. Both of these guys enter the post season banged up. Bron with a sore back and Butler with a bruised right knee. Both of these situations need to be watched closely since both players are so important to their team’s success.

After I touted Wally all season as ready to help a contender, it makes sense that his jumper completely deserted him as soon as he joined Cleveland. I suppose it only takes one good game, but World has to start making shots or he won’t see the court. I like McGuire’s all around game, but as a rookie I don’t think he’s quite ready for this stage yet.

Power Forward
Ben Wallace & Joe Smith v Antawn Jamison & Darius Songaila – Jamison will have a quickness advantage over anyone the Cavs throw at him. Lucky thing for Tawn since it’s his contract year. Jamison may legitimately need to carry the Wiz too with Arenas and Butler not at 100%. Wallace has been slowed by a bad back recently, which has only accentuated his already declining skills. That said, if Big Ben can find the fountain of youth he’s probably Cleveland’s best chance to check Tawn on the perimeter.

Smith and Songaila can both finish around the rim and convert open mid-range opportunities on offense. The big difference in their games is that Joe is a better defender, rebounder and plays smarter. I have a feeling Smith may be an important player in this series before it’s over.

Center
Zydrunas Ilgauskas & Anderson Varejao v Brendan Haywood & Andray Blatche – Haywood very quietly is coming off his best season as a pro and Z is currently dealing with a sore back. So what would have been a big advantage for the Cavs isn’t anymore. Unless Ilgauskas starts feeling better I expect these two to cancel each other out.

The bench guys both provide lifts for their clubs but in completely different ways. Varejao is the consummate agitator as well as being a good defender and rebounder. Blatche, while a little too inconsistent, has massive “upside”. He can score inside and out, has the size to bang down low and the instinct to be an elite shot blocker. If Washington gets a significant contribution from Andray that might put them over the top.

Coach
Mike Brown v Eddie Jordan – Brown is a defensive coach and Jordan an offensive one. While both tried to improve the other facets of their job this year, the results were only mixed. Both of them struggle with in game and game-to-game adjustments alike. This is really a toss up as both guys are pretty flawed. I’ll give a slight edge to Mike because he’s a little better when it comes to preparation.

Overall

When squads are meeting in the first round for the third straight season, you know there’s going to be bad blood. And judging by all the smack being talked already (mostly from the Wiz though) that’s certainly the case here. Washington has lost the two previous matchups, but they were not healthy at all last year. This time around neither team is a 100% with owies up and down both rosters.

Cleveland really struggled over the last two months of the season (and really since their big trade) going 12-11. The Wiz were slightly better than that at 15-9, but what makes that mark more impressive is that they were dealing with injuries and battling for playoff positioning the entire time.

This series is really a toss up, and I won’t be surprised with whoever wins. Since the Cavs tend to have droughts on offense Washington needs to push the pace and score, score, score to be successful. In doing this though the Wiz can’t forget to play some D. Cleveland needs one of their shooters (West, Gibson, Jones, Brown or Szczerbiak) to step up nightly or they are probably going home.

In the end I give an oh so slight edge to the Cavs because of their defense, rebounding, front court depth and home court advantage. However if the games are tight in crunch time the upper hand swings to Washington because they shoot free throws so much better.

Prediction: Even though I’ll probably regret it, I can’t pick against a determined LeBron when things are this close. Cleveland in 7.

Raptors at Magic

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Orlando – 44.56% (7th)
Toronto – 45.75% (15th)

Rebound Differential
Orlando – +.29 (16th)
Toronto – -1.40 (22nd)

Point Differential
Orlando – +5.28 (6th)
Toronto – +3.06 (12th)

Shooting
Orlando – 47.45% (5th)
Toronto – 46.85% (7th)

3-Point Shooting
Orlando – 38.6% (4th)
Toronto – 39.2% (2nd)

Free Throw Shooting
Orlando – 72.23% (27th)
Toronto – 81.29% (2nd)

Turnovers
Orlando – 14.38 (14th)
Toronto – 11.67 (2nd)

Fouls
Orlando – 20.70 (15th)
Toronto – 19.38 (4th)

Pace Factor
Orlando – 95.8 (9th)
Toronto – 92.4 (25th)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Jameer Nelson & Carlos Arroyo v T.J. Ford & Jose Calderon – Jameer faces an extremely tough challenge staying in front of Ford. In fact, it’s darn near mission impossible. Nelson would be wise to stay off T.J a few steps and dare him to shoot. Then again, with the way Ford has been shooting this season that might not work either. On offense Jameer not only needs to hit open shots, but he should also try and post T.J. up a few times and maybe get Ford into some foul trouble.

The backup situation heavily favors the Raps as Calderon is a starter on most NBA teams. Arroyo is far too streaky and moody to be counted on in the playoffs.

Shooting Guard
Maurice Evans & Keyon Dooling v Anthony Parker & Carlos Delfino – Parker and Evans provide many of same things to their clubs. Both are hard workers and tough tenacious defenders. The difference between the two is that AP is a top notch 3-point marksman.

The guys on the pine play similar roles too providing energy, hustle and those intangibles coaches love. Both are inconsistent though, but when Delfino is on he can be a difference maker.

Small Forward
Hedo Turkoglu & Keith Bogans v Jamario Moon & Jason Kapono – We have two “feel good” stories going to head to head here. Hedo is a Most Improved Player candidate and Moon is the 27 year old rookie who finally made it. The series could also hinge on this battle. Jamario is a very solid defender and Turk is Orlando’s go to guy. Moon needs to crowd Hedo and use his length to bother Turk’s jumper so he doesn’t get going early. Hedo needs to vary his game to keep Jamario off balance.

Bogans is an energizer and tough defender where Kapono is a shooter extraordinaire. Keith has a propensity to take bad shots and Jason has the maddening habit of not shooting enough. Both can be x-factors in their own way though.

Power Forward
Rashard Lewis & Brian Cook v Chris Bosh & Kris Humphries – This is certainly the marquee match up on paper, but the reality is that R Lew has been a severe disappointment in his first season with the Magic. If Shard ever gets motivated and decides to play his perimeter skills could really give CB4 trouble. When Toronto has the ball Bosh needs to avoid floating around the perimeter and take either Lewis or Turkoglu down low and punish them.

I like Humphries’ activity and toughness, but I don’t expect him to see many minutes. Cook is doubtful for the series with a broken right finger.

Center
Dwight Howard & Adonal Foyle v Rasho Nesterovic & Andrea Bargnani – I know Rasho has been on fire in March and April, but he has his work cut out for him here big time. Superman should have no problem abusing and putting fouls on Nesterovic in a hurry, so much so that Primoz Brezec’s services might be required. I’m interested to see Howard perform in his second post season since the Raps have no one that can even remotely check him. I’m looking for Dwight to be dominant and completely unstoppable. Anything less and his squad might be in trouble.

Bargnani was one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA this season, and I don’t expect him to turn it around now after losing his starting gig to Rasho. Foyle is a defensive specialist down low that will get spot duty when Howard needs a blow.

Coach
Stan Van Gundy v Sam Mitchell – This is about as a big a mismatch as they come. I’m hard pressed to come up with an area where Mitchell has the edge, other than having more stylish apparel. SVG is a better motivator, tactician, adjuster and preparer. ‘Nuff said.

Overall

When analyzing the box scores of their regular season contests only one thing stood out to me. The team that won each game shot 50% or better and also always made more threes. All of the other statistics were practically even. What that tells me is these teams really aren’t that far apart and a hot shooting night is all it takes to win.

When I compared these two rosters on paper it was almost shocking how much more talent Toronto had. That said, the Raps are a paltry 9-16 in March and April, and that’s not how you want to finish the season. Now compare that to Orlando’s 15-7 over the same period and you see two clubs headed in opposite directions.

A nice little subplot to this series is that Bosh and Howard have an underrated rivalry going that could make for some interesting theater in crunch time. As a whole though I think these games will be more competitive and entertaining than people think since these squads both shoot the 3 very well. The difference is the Magic like to gun theirs in transition where the Raps get most of their attempts in the half court.

One last point to be aware of is that if things are tight down the stretch Toronto’s advantage at the free throw line could be huge.

Prediction: Sleeper series of the first round with Orlando’s superior defense and coaching making the difference. Magic in 7.

76ers at Pistons

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Detroit – 43.79% (3rd)
Philadelphia – 45.99% (17th)

Rebound Differential
Detroit – +2.30 (7th)
Philadelphia – +2.62 (6th)

Point Differential
Detroit – +7.30 (3rd)
Philadelphia – +.49 (14th)

Shooting
Detroit – 45.81% (13th)
Philadelphia – 45.95% (12th)

3-Point Shooting
Detroit – 36.5% (14th)
Philadelphia – 31.4% (30th)

Free Throw Shooting
Detroit – 76.53% (14th)
Philadelphia – 70.66% (30th)

Turnovers
Detroit – 11.63 (1st)
Philadelphia – 14.37 (13th)

Fouls
Detroit – 20.56 (13th)
Philadelphia – 19.71 (7th)

Pace Factor
Detroit – 89.9 (30th)
Philadelphia – 93.1 (20th)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Chauncey Billups & Rodney Stuckey v Andre Miller & Louis Williams – There’s no doubt that when A Mil performs well so does Philly. Consequently it’s on Chaunc to play solid defense and shut Andre down. Billups has certainly lost a step, but it’s a step that Miller never had to begin with. A Mil is not known for his D, but he’ll have to at least make an attempt to stay in front of Mr. Big Shot or things could get dicey quickly for the Sixers.

The bench match up is interesting as two quick youngsters go head to head. Stuckey has more all around game than Williams, but Lou Dub is a more explosive scorer. Neither has much interest in defending, but I give Rodney an edge there for his hustle. Williams must pay attention to Stuckey or Louis runs the risk of getting burnt to a crisp.

Shooting Guard
Richard Hamilton & Juan Dixon v Willie Green & Rodney Carney – Oh my, I apologize to my long time readers in advance. Willie Green is athletic, I’ll give him that, so if he can run through screens and stay with Rip on defense, that’ll be plenty from him. I expect Hamilton to “float” on D, looking to help or double while daring Green to shoot. This one isn’t fair.

It gets no better for Philly when comparing the 2nd unit. While the difference isn’t as vast, Juanito is still a much better option than Carney.

Small Forward
Tayshaun Prince & Jarvis Hayes v Andre Iguodala & Thaddeus Young – This series being competitive hinges on this match up. If Tay is able to shut down Andre the Sixers have no chance at all. Look for the Pistons to throw multiple defenders at AI2, even if Prince is doing the job. For Iguodala this is about a payday. If he plays well and carries the team he’ll be an extremely rich man. However, if he stinks up the joint he’ll be losing dollars by the minute.

The Sixers finally score a check mark with Thad. I have some doubts about Young long term, but there’s no debating that he contributes more than Hayes does right now. I have major concerns about Thaddeus defending Rasheed though if he plays some PF with AI2 up front.

Power Forward
Rasheed Wallace & Amir Johnson v Reggie Evans & Jason Smith – Ugh, another brutal one. Evans best shot at a contribution is to try get under Sheed’s skin relentlessly. Hopefully getting Wallace tossed or suspended. Other than that, I see no way Reggie can check Rasheed anywhere on the court. Wallace can also “float” on D if he so chooses, but he must be aware of Evans on the offensive glass.

The backups really play the same game at the moment with the difference being Johnson is an athletic super-freak. I see Amir as an x-factor later on in the playoffs, but for now as long as Smith hustles and plays smart, he should be able to hold his own with Johnson.

Center
Antonio McDyess & Jason Maxiell v Samuel Dalembert & Calvin Booth – I expect Dyess to try and draw Sam away from the basket using his mid-range jumper as the bait. If he can make a few of those that should open up the lane for drives by Chaunc, Rip and Stuckey. Dalembert *must* stay out of foul trouble, rebound and provide the last line of defense. To that end, Sammy should NOT guard Wallace unless it’s an end of game situation. (McDyess would be a great a mismatch for Dalembert if Sam had a go to post move.)

Once again the 2nd unit favors Detroit. Booth is a big time stiff, and while Maxiell is limited offensively, Jason does contribute toughness, hustle, defense and shot blocking in the role of undersized center.

Coach
Flip Saunders v Maurice Cheeks – If the games are close this should be an interesting battle since neither guy is good at in-game adjustments. I’ll give Flip the edge when it comes to preparation and tactics. However Mo has it all over him in terms of being able to motivate and having the respect of his players. In the end I give the nod to Saunders though for having coached in 70 more playoffs games than Cheeks has.

Overall

In many ways Philly is a squad that is Detroit’s nightmare opponent. I’m referring to the Sixers general attitude and the way they approach the game. Philly plays hard and never gives up…which is basically the opposite of how the Pistons go about things. While this certainly works in Philly’s favor, it won’t be enough to overcome the huge talent disparity between the two clubs.

Nevertheless, this is a good thing for the Sixers even if they get completely beat down. The reason I say that is not for the “experience” factor, but more for the weeding out of guys that can’t play. Post season pressure is different, and even though Philly is a feel good story this season, I have a feeling that some of their guys aren’t quite the players they’ve been made out to be.

Prediction: The Sixers get a game, and possibly two, but Detroit prevails. Pistons in 5.

Hawks at Celtics

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Boston – 41.88% (1st)
Atlanta – 46.11% (19th)

Rebound Differential
Boston – +3.06 (4th)
Atlanta – +1.26 (9th)

Point Differential
Boston – +10.24 (1st)
Atlanta – -1.48 (18th)

Shooting
Boston – 47.53% (4th)
Atlanta – 45.37% (16th)

3-Point Shooting
Boston – 38.0% (5th)
Atlanta – 35.7% (16th)

Free Throw Shooting
Boston – 77.07% (8th)
Atlanta – 77.25% (7th)

Turnovers
Boston – 15.22 (27th)
Atlanta – 14.92 (24th)

Fouls
Boston – 22.71 (25th)
Atlanta – 20.52 (11th)

Pace Factor
Boston – 93.3 (19th)
Atlanta – 93.5 (18th)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Rajon Rondo & Sam Cassell v Mike Bibby & Acie Law IV – While Bibby has a huge edge in post season experience over Rondo, Rajon’s quickness, length and defensive ability should bother Mike quite a bit. Bibby is by far the most playoff tested Hawk, so his leadership will be key, but for Atlanta to have any chance Mike *must* make open shots. All Rondo needs to do is play tough D, keep everyone involved and not turn the ball over.

Backup PG isn’t even a contest. Sam I Am has it all over Acie in every department except athleticism.

Shooting Guard
Ray Allen & Eddie House v Joe Johnson & Salim Stoudamire – Ray-Ray will have his work cut out for him checking JJ. In fact, if Allen tires or can’t contain the Hawks #1 scoring option, look for Pierce to step up to the challenge. Johnson won’t have it easy regardless of who’s on him though since the best defensive team in the league’s entire game plan will be designed to stop him. Ray’s offensive production might not be up to par, but if he does a good job on JJ it won’t matter.

Both bench guys are shooting specialists, and House is the better of the two.

Small Forward
Paul Pierce & James Posey v Josh Smith & Josh Childress – J Smoove is going to have to prove his mettle as a one-on-one defender in his playoff debut because PP is a very tough customer on offense. I think Paul will be best served utilizing his savvy mid-range game since Smith’s athleticism probably will take away Pierce’s driving and post up opportunities. Josh needs to be aggressive with own offense so Paul can’t rest on that end. I’d recommend Smoove forget his jump shot and strictly take it to the hoop and try to get some fouls on PP.

Posey has been a seriously underrated addition to the Celtics, and Childress is one of the most underappreciated players in the enitre NBA. The two of them really provide many of the same things too. Like sticky defense, timely shooting and hustle plays. Josh is probably the better of the two right now, but James has the edge in experience.

Power Forward
Kevin Garnett & Leon Powe v Marvin Williams & Solomon Jones – Ok, this is where it gets real ugly. KG is known for his intensity while Marvin tends to take a night off here and there. Williams’ defense is seriously lacking and Garnett is the likely Defensive Player of the Year. As long as Kevin is patient on offense he should have a field day with Marvin.

Long time readers know that I’m big Leon Powe fan, and since Jones is unlikely to play…advantage Boston.

Center
Kendrick Perkins & Glen Davis v Al Horford & Zaza Pachulia – This is actually a very intriguing match up of two young pivot men. Perk doesn’t do much of anything on offense, but he’s good post defender, rebounder and shot blocker. The same can be said about Horford, except Al has a nice post up game and touch around the rim to go with those other attributes. Look for Kendrick to try and muscle Horford off his spots and disrupt his flow. How Al responds under the bright lights of the playoffs will tell us a lot about his future.

Davis and Pachulia are their respective club’s enforcers/hard foul takers. Both have the size to be decent defenders and neither is a complete stiff on offense.

Coach
Doc Rivers v Mike Woodson – Woody is lucky to have a job, much less be in the playoffs. Seriously, I’ve never seen anything from Woodson that suggests he’s even a mediocre coach. I’m not a big fan of Doc’s either, but he’s clearly the better coach here. (Doubt I’ll be typing that again.)

Overall

Not much needs to be said here other than look at the numbers. The Celtics defend, shoot and rebound better. They also have more experienced players and a better coach. For Atlanta to have a chance to even stay close in a game they’ll have to be perfect on both ends for 48 minutes.

Prediction: Boston is on a mission and will take care of business in an orderly fashion. Celtics in 4.