Iran & Netherlands

IRAN

It’s starting to sound like a broken record, but United States Manager Gregg Berhalter (GGG) got his lineup and tactics spot-on again in the first half.  Unfortunately, he got his substitutions wrong once more and almost let the match slip away late with a misguided formation change.

Iran played slightly more aggressive than most thought very early coming out in a mid-block.  Eventually though they settled into their normal low-block and looked to hit us on the counterattack.  Regardless of Team Melli’s shape, the USMNT was dominating possession and creating quality chances galore.  It culminated with Christian Pulisic slotting home a headed cross from Sergiño Dest in the 38^th minute.

GGG was forced to make three substitutes.  Pulisic (45) and Josh Sargent (77) got hurt and Weston McKennie (65) was gassed.  Replacing them with Brenden Aaronson, Haji Wright and Kellyn Acosta was understandable given the circumstances.  Being up 1-0 Aaronson and Acosta are quality defensive subs.

Where Berhalter went off the rails was shifting to back five at 82 by inserting Shaq Moore and Walker Zimmerman for Dest and Tim Weah.  Don’t get me wrong, Serg and Timo were tired, but moving from our normal 4-3-3 formation to a 5-4-1 that we barely ever use put us at unnecessary risk.  For the final 18 minutes Iran had chance after chance and we were extremely lucky to get out of there with necessary three points.

PLAYERS

Matt Turner – Didn’t have much to do once again.  His distribution has been a revelation thus far in the World Cup (WC).  He started the 11-pass sequence that led to the goal.  Will need to have zero mental lapses and be 100% sharp on Saturday.

Jedi Robinson – Worked hard as usual.  However, his first touch was plain jackhammer-like in this one.  His crossing wasn’t much better.

Tim Ream – Another rock-solid performance.  I shudder to think where we’d be without him.

Cameron Carter-Vickers – One of two changes GGG made to the starting XI and a huge gamble.  It paid off as CCV put in a strong performance until the late formation change jumbled responsibilities at the back.

Dest – Maybe our best players on the day.  Besides the assist he consistently created danger down the right flank.  His defensive awareness was there as well.  Saturday will have some extra meaning for him playing against his birth country.

McKennie – Was not as clean on the ball or as active as he was against England.  He did have the “hockey assist” on the goal though.  We are going to need the best version of him against Holland.

Tyler Adams – There’s not much else I can say about him anymore, other than he’s “Our Captain.”

Yunus Musah – Was all over the place on his birthday.  Looking back on my last preview it was foolish to suggest breaking up the MMA Midfield.

Pulisic – Beyond scoring the goal he was once again our most dangerous attacker in only 45 minutes.  If he was able to play 90, we would have scored again.

Sargent – Even though he didn’t score this was still the best match he has ever played for the USMNT.  His defense was solid and his hold-up play was outstanding.  Sadly, something always seems to happen to him just when things are looking up.

Weah – I still can’t believe VAR didn’t pause the match to look at his goal right before halftime.  I suppose he was offside, but it was damn close.  He seems to run out of steam around 60-65 and needs to be subbed off sooner than he has been.

Aaronson – The defense and work-rate was there, but I feel like he should have been more dangerous in the attacking third.

Acosta – Was put in there for his defense and that is what he did.

Wright – Wasn’t very good.  Made a poor decision late on to try and attack when he should have taken the ball to the corner to waste time.

Shaq Moore – Shouldn’t even be on the roster.  So how he is suddenly the backup right back is beyond me?  This is the second straight match where his lack of skill almost cost us a result.  There is NO WAY he should see the pitch again in this tournament.

Walker Zimmerman – Only played the final 18 minutes and led the all players in the match with EIGHT clearances.  None bigger than the ball he cleared off the line after it slipped past Turner.  I won’t be surprised to see him back starting against the Dutch.

NETHERLANDS

Believe it or not, Holland (3) is currently ranked higher in ELO than England (8).  The general consensus among experts though is that the English are clearly more talented than the Dutch.  Then take into account that the Oranje were unimpressive in winning Group A.  They needed a late goal (84) to beat Senegal, were thoroughly out played (15 shots to 2) in their draw with Ecuador and coasted past Qatar.  There are also reports that the flu is currently running through their team.

Add all that up, and while we should have a healthy respect for the Dutch, by no means should we fear them.  In fact, TV ratings in Holland have been decreasing with each match because the people there don’t think their side has a chance to win it all.  Furthermore, the Dutch people and writers are expecting to lose to us.  Yes, you read that right.

I’m not willing to go as far as to call us the favorites, but we have a very good chance of winning.  I expect GGG to deploy some more of the 4-4-2 shape we saw against England to keep Holland’s possession at bay.  One wrinkle to that could be that the Oranje always play a 3-4-3 under Manager Louis van Gaal.  The USMNT hasn’t seen that formation yet in the WC so GGG might have something new up his sleeve.

Of course, the big question for us right now is injuries.  Pulisic was cleared to play, but how much or if he starts won’t be known until an hour before first kick.  I think it’s doubtful he can go 90.  Sargent is still day-to-day with ankle soreness.  He supposedly looked ok in the 15-minutes of training that was open to the media, but Berhalter sounded less confident Josh could go compared to CP.

Those are just the injuries we know about.  The Gio Reyna situation is the biggest mystery of the WC for us.  Berhalter’s latest spin is that since we’ve been ahead late Reyna hasn’t been needed to chase a goal.  I suppose if asked he would say the same about Luca de la Torre as well.  McKennie, Dest and even Weah also don’t seem 90-minutes fit either.

When sickos like me complain about the end of the roster this is why.  With Sargent questionable, Wright not looking up for it and Jesús Ferreira glued to the bench wouldn’t it be nice to have Ricardo Pepi sitting there ready to go?  Pepi has six goals in nine matches in the Dutch top-flight.  Did I mention we are playing Holland?

Djordje Mihailovic would also be a nice option to have since Aaronson and Acosta seem to be the only backup midfielders that GGG will play right now.  Then there is the case of 19-year-old Joe Scally.  He is somehow fourth on the right back depth chart despite being a locked-in starter for Borussia Mönchengladbach (8^th place in the Bundesliga).  The reason I complain so much on roster release day is these depth pieces always end up playing a role in a long tournament.  Not to mention that our roster suddenly looks very thin at important positions.

With that as the backdrop I think in an ideal world GGG would start the same lineup he did against Wales and Iran.  I’m guessing he leans Zimmerman over CCV, but that is the only spot up for debate assuming everyone’s health is intact.  As is right now I just don’t know?  We will certainly need all five substitutes and six if we go to extra time.  This is especially worrying because as unexpectedly good as Berhalter has been this WC, his subs have been consistently bad.  Both timing and personnel wise. 

     CP Josh Weah

 Wes Adams Musah

Jedi Ream Zimm Dest

            Turner

SUBS: Reyna, Wright, Aaronson, Jordan Morris, Scally, de la Torre

As you can see by the number of subs, I’m expecting this match to be tied after 90.  Never fear though, Gio is going to announce himself on the world’s biggest stage.  He’ll deliver the winner in the second half of extra time so we can avoid penalty kicks.