United States World Cup Preview

HISTORY

I’m not sure that all of my family, friends and acquaintances realize just how much time and effort I put in to following the United States Men’s National Team (USMNT).  How is this possible you might ask since they only play 2 games every few months or so?  Well, with modern streaming services I’m able to follow every match of all of our key players in Europe.  I even write a weekly email summing up the action for a select few.

With that as the backdrop the USMNT was extremely underwhelming in CONCACAF (Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football) World Cup Qualifying (WCQ).  We ended up finishing third.  However, if not for a blown call against Jamaica, we would have finished fourth and ended up in a playoff with New Zealand.  Thank goodness CONCACAF didn’t have VAR (video assistant referee) during that match.

When the World Cup (WC) draw was announced back in April, I thought it was a good one for the USMNT (24^th in ELO) with England (14), Iran (21) and Wales (26).  Since then, the USMNT has played six matches and has consistently performed less than the sum of their parts.  Which only continues the trend from WCQ.

We will be the second youngest team at the WC with an average age of 25.59 (Ghana 25.30), but there is no doubt that this is our most talented generation of players to date.  For my money “inexperience” is not an excuse since many top footballing countries play youngsters as well.  What is the problem then?  Plain and simple, it is our manager Gregg Berhalter (GGG).

Looking at GGG’s resume it is very underwhelming for such a high-profile job.  He started off in the second tier of Swedish football at Hammarby (2011-13) and lasted 46 matches until he was fired for "lack of attacking play."  He then went to Columbus in MLS where in five seasons (2013-18) he finished 7^th, 4^th, 18^th, 5^th and 10^th and never won a trophy of any kind. 

So how did he get the job you might ask?  Well, USMNT GM Earnie Stewart (now Sporting Director of US Soccer) only interviewed two people to be the new US manager.  That and GGG’s brother Jay was CCO of US Soccer at the time.  The reason this matters now is because GGG has a dogmatic approach to his “system.”  Meaning he chooses players that fit his “system” above all else. 

To back up a bit, the job of any and all national team managers is to identify their most talented players and develop a formation and tactics that maximize the talent at their disposal.  GGG would rather try and fit a square peg in a round hole than do that.  If some of our most talented players don’t fit the “system” he has no qualms about leaving them out of the team. 

I understand many managers around the globe have their favorite players, but there are levels of play that matter in world football.  For example, if player X is doing a job in MLS and player Y is doing a similar job at a higher level in Europe it would stand to reason that player Y gets the national team call.  Unfortunately, things don’t work like that in GGG’s head, and as you can see logically this make no sense. 

The point of all this is that our players have definitely taken notice.  During our two most recent friendlies in September it was crystal clear to me that I was a watching a team that was no longer listening to their manager’s voice.  You can only call-in lesser players and use the wrong tactics for so long before the players start trying to do everything on their own, manager be damned.

It sucks that it has come to this at the exact wrong time, but there is a silver lining.  The other teams in Group B are all having issues of their own.  Iran fired their manager in June and could be missing 2 or 3 of their best players because of injury or suspension.

England has not won a match outright since March and were recently relegated out of UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) Nations League A.  Their manager, Gareth Southgate, is probably under more fire than GGG and they have some significant injuries as well.

Wales is playing in their first WC in 64 years but they were also relegated out of UEFA Nations League A in September.  They have only won two matches since March, and both were in the playoffs of UEFA WCQ.  Gareth Bale is the name everyone knows but he’s not even a 60-minute player in MLS anymore.  Likewise, a lot of the veteran Welsh players are on their way out in a generational shift.

Another silver lining to consider is that matches in CONCACAF normally feature extremely poor pitches, worse referees and opposition tactics that consist of “kick our good players every time they get on the ball.”  In the WC the pitches will be immaculate, the refs should be of a higher quality and opponents will actually try and play legitimate football against us.

ROSTER

GGG’s biggest flaws as USMNT manager have been his roster selection, starting XI selection and frequently getting his gameday tactics wrong while being very slow to adjust them in real time.  That is why I was both shocked and pleasantly surprised when the roster was announced.  He did some very un-GGG-like things.

The biggest was not calling in goalkeeper Zack Steffen.  Truth be told I don’t think Steffen deserved to be on the roster given his lack of form over the last two years.  However, when healthy Zack was GGG’s guy all throughout WCQ and also played for Berhalter in Columbus.  All in all, this was a great call by GGG.  It was just completely unexpected and out of character for him.

The next surprise and biggest snub was the exclusion of 19-year-old striker Ricardo Pepi.  Another guy that when you look at his body of work over the past year probably didn’t deserve the call yet.  Ricardo more or less saved GGG’s job during the first WCQ window when he had a goal and two assists during the second half in Honduras.  That earned him a lot of equity when he didn’t score for club or country for almost a year after that.  However, he is scoring now and yet he somehow was left out.  This choice was maybe slightly less shocking than Steffen, but not by much.

Those two decisions aside GGG still called in nine MLS players, which is way too many in this day and age of US Soccer.  I’m pretty happy with our roster overall but there are five changes I’d make.  All are MLS players and I’d replace them with guys starting and playing first division minutes in Europe.  Of those five, three of them probably won’t play anyway.  I’m of the mind that you take young guys to get experience in those roles rather than veteran “locker room vibe” types.

Our “vibe” players are third string keeper Sean Johnson (fine with him), right back Shaq Moore, midfielder Christian Roldan and winger Jordan Morris.  In the case of Moore there is no reason to carry four right backs.  I’d prefer a fifth central defender instead and Mark McKenzie (Genk, Belgium) is that guy.  Rather than Morris I would have selected 20-year-old Malik Tillman (Rangers, Scotland).  Neither of them will see the pitch anyway but Malik at least has a future with the USMNT.  Lastly, I’m dropping Roldan for Djordje Mihailovic (AZ Alkmaar, Holland) because I trust Djordje more in a break glass in case of emergency kind of way.  Again, all this stuff is splitting hairs at the bottom of the roster.

Now to the real concerns which are striker Jesús Ferreira and central defender Aaron Long.  Both of these guys are GGG favorites who have no business being on the roster.  Worse yet, they both figure to be starters just like I feared would be the case with Steffen.  Long was simply not very good in MLS this season and you better believe ALL of our opponents will be targeting him on our backline.  I’d replace him with Erik Palmer-Brown (Troyes, France) who has the second biggest gripe for being excluded.

Ferreira’s claim to fame is that he possesses a different skill set than the rest of our central forwards.  The problem with that is he has proven time and again that his style of play does not translate at the highest level.  He has a tendency to miss sitters under pressure and is also only 5’8, so he offers no physicality and absolutely nothing in the air.  It frustrates me to no end that he is GGG’s #1.  The guy is a liability against top sides, plain and simple.  Since Jesús would not play for me in his stead I’m bringing Pepi (Groningen, Holland).  I’d rather have Ricardo get the experience on the bench than someone who will no longer be in the mix come 2026.

As far as true snubs go of guys that I haven’t mentioned yet, defender Reggie Cannon and winger Paul Arriola being left out surprised a lot of people because they were GGG favorites during WCQ.  John Brooks, Jordan Pefok, Brandon Vazquez and Eryk Williamson were never truly in the mix for Berhalter.

Finally, Miles Robinson (Achilles) and Chris Richards (hamstring) would have likely been our starting central defender pairing had they been healthy.  Sam Vines (broken leg) would have also been in the mix as our second-best left-footed fullback.

WALES

Now for some good news!  Unlike in WCQ the vast majority of our “core” guys are here should be ready to go on matchday 1.  There are some small injury concerns with keeper Matt Turner, midfielders Weston McKennie & Luca de la Torre and fullbacks Sergiño Dest & Antonee “Jedi” Robinson.  Per GGG though they are all trending to be fully fit in time.  If one of them or someone else is deemed not fit enough US Soccer can replace any player up 24 hours prior to Wales match.

When it comes to our starting XI, I’d say eight positions are pretty much locked in barring injury.  The defense will be Turner in goal, Dest at right back, Jedi at left back and Walker Zimmerman at right center back.  The “MMA Midfield” of McKennie, Yunus Musah and Tyler Adams are poised to announce themselves to the world in Qatar.  If Wes isn’t fit enough in time, I expect Brenden Aaronson to take his spot.  The frontline will be Christian Pulisic on the left and either Gio Reyna or Tim Weah on the right.

Of that core the only player that gives me pause is 29-year-old Zimmerman.  He has certainly proved himself against MLS/CONCACAF level opposition and he is good in the air.  The problem is he wasn’t great in MLS this season, is slow-footed and not a great passer.  He’s also completely untested at the highest level since he didn’t become a USMNT regular until 2021.

I saved GGG’s final roster surprise for here, and that’s 35-year-old left center back Tim Ream.  Ream’s last appearance for the USMNT was in September of 2021.  Basically, Walker replaced him on the team.  What changed to call Tim back in?  Besides injuries to Robinson and Richards, Ream has been captaining a Fulham side that currently sits 9^th in the Premier League (EPL) table.  He obviously lost his wheels long ago, but he makes up for it with smart positioning and great distribution. 

Don’t believe me?  Take Manchester City Manager Pep Guardiola’s word for it.  After City’s recent match with Fulham Guardiola walked up to Tim and said “If you were 24 instead of 34, you’d be playing for me.”  Ream replied “It’s too bad I’m not 34, I’m 35.”

I’ve been worried that Long was going to be the guy to partner with Zimmerman, but GGG made some comments on his media tour after the roster release that makes me think Ream might be that guy now.  At least in the Wales and England matches since he is familiar with all those players from his years in the EPL and English second tier (EFL).  Don’t get me wrong, Tim is not ideal but he is a far better option than Aaron for sure.

The last spot that is up for grabs is striker and there are three options; Ferreira, Josh Sargent and Haji Wright.  I’ve already stated that Jesús is GGG’s guy, but Berhalter made some similar comments about Sargent like he did with Ream.  Josh has also played in the EPL and EFL so he will know the defenders on Wales and England better than the other two.  If it was up to me, I’d start Sargent every match and use Wright as a sub when needed.  Sadly, it’s not up to me, but GGG might finally be turning a corner to logic and reality.  At least I hope he is.

When you break down both rosters the USMNT actually has more talent than Wales.  The flip side of that is Welsh Manager Rob Page is far superior to GGG.  Page gets his boys to play like a cohesive unit superior to the sum of their parts.  So even though the USMNT is more talented on paper, I don’t anticipate the match to play out like that at all.

I expect Wales to follow the script on how to beat us.  They will sit in a compressed mid-block and try and to squeeze the MMA Midfield off the ball.  This in turn will force our center backs to be distributors, which none of them are good at except Ream.  This will also compel our frontline to drop deep to get on the ball.  If you see Pulisic, Reyna, Weah and the strikers coming back into midfield to get touches you know we are in trouble.  Then the Welsh will pounce on any mistakes we make and try to burn us on a counterattack.

I’m hoping against hope that GGG comes to his senses in time and that we stop trying to build out of the back and play beautiful football.  Instead, we should play more direct and try to use our athleticism to win second balls.  We should also sit back and try and use our speed to hit teams on the counter.  Unfortunately, GGG has thus far proven to be tactically inflexible so expect us to high-press and take our chances from there.

I’ve always been of the mind that our talent dictates that we should play out of a 4-2-3-1.  However, considering that GGG always has us lined up in a 4-3-3 this is my preferred lineup if everyone is healthy.

  Pulisic Sargent Weah

McKennie Adams Musah

  Jedi Ream Zimm Dest

              Turner

SUBS: Reyna, Aaronson, Wright, Joe Scally, de la Torre

Historically when you win your first group stage match at the WC you advance to the knockout round 84% of the time.  Hence if we lose to Wales we are likely done unless we somehow manage to beat England.  A draw versus the Welsh would keep us alive but we’d be on life support.

The optimistic take is that our most talented guys have literally never all played together at the senior level.  That alone should be enough to bring a smile to any American’s face.  The pessimistic take is that we only have one player with prior WC experience (DeAndre Yedlin) and have not looked like a connected or organized group lately.  The pragmatic take obviously falls somewhere in between there. 

As someone who watches every minute of this team, I can’t ignore the way our performances have been trending since WCQ began.  My worst fear is that this promising young group gets embarrassed and looks overmatched at the biggest sporting event in the world.  I’ll be rooting as hard as I can for us to beat the Dragons at 11:00 AM Pacific on Monday 11/21.  Otherwise, we will probably be looking for a new manager come December. 

LET’S FUCKING GO!!!