Opening Night!

You know me; I never like to go overboard with the analysis too soon, but it was opening night, so here goes.

> The Lakers are going to be very, very good when they are 100% healthy. Pau Gasol might be back from his right hamstring injury Friday (10/30) against Dallas. I say take your time Pau, there’s no need to rush back and end up like your countryman Jose Calderon did last season.

> Trevor Ariza in his Houston debut had 12 points on 3-8 shooting (2-4 from three) in 33 minutes. He also had 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 4 turnovers and was -10 in a loss.

Ron Artest in his Laker debut had 10 points on 3-10 shooting (1-5 from 3) in 41 minutes. He also had 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 4 turnovers and was +14 (which led the team) in a win.

Draw your own conclusions…

> News that number one pick Blake Griffin will miss at least six weeks with a stress fracture in his left kneecap did not make me feel good about picking the Clippers to make the playoffs. Then I watched Baron Davis shoot 1-10 from the field while hobbling around on a bruised right foot…and well…I should know better than to expect good things from the Clips.

> I really liked the energy that Andre Miller, Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw brought to Portland’s second unit. If they can keep it up the change of tempo they provide will be huge for the Trail Blazers.

But not as huge as Greg Oden maintaining his level of activity. The big man was moving around the best I’d ever seen and was really into the game mentally. Yeah I know he had 7 turnovers and 5 fouls, but 12 rebounds, 5 blocks and his intimidating presence in the paint will be enough for the Blazers.

> I was really disappointed by the Mavericks performance. It’s pretty much inexcusable to come out flat in your home opener. In what may be a related story, Josh Howard (left ankle) isn’t expected back for at least two more weeks.

> Gilbert Arenas is officially back, and there’s more to it than his 29 points and 9 assists with only 3 turnovers. He was penetrating at will once again, taking and making big shots and being the fearless Agent Zero we have all become used to.

> Kevin Garnett also seemed to be back, but to a lesser degree. I didn’t see the same explosiveness from him but at his age (33) that might take a while to return.

I’m going to try and post more regularly this season, but I’m off to Festival 8 in Indio, CA tomorrow. So my next NBA post won’t be until mid-next week at the absolute earliest.

Western Conference Preview

This is the section of my yearly previews where I remind everyone of my past successes. As in I’ve predicted (in October) the eventual NBA Champion in two of the past three seasons. I’ve also had at least one team from my preseason previews make the NBA Finals in four of the past five years.

The great thing about having a blog is you can see for yourself if you don’t believe me. Just search the archives.

The West is still better than the East overall, but the bottom of the West features some truly horrid squads.

1. Los Angeles Lakers – The defending champs are stacked and primed for a repeat. Their defense will certainly be better, but the offense will take some time to come around before everyone settles into their roles. Kobe Bryant’s tyrant-like drive will keep them on course but the Lakers WILL hit a few rough patches this year. And while I think they are a lock for the best record in the West, they will have to earn the best record overall.

Eyes On – Ron Artest. What do LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce have in common? They are three guys Trevor Ariza couldn’t guard that Artest can.

Now or Never – Jordan Farmar. I’m just going to pretend like last season didn’t happen. Being the starting PG for a possible dynasty is right there for him to step up and grab.

2. Portland Trail Blazers – They added a veteran PG in Andre Miller, get Martell Webster (left foot) back from injury and both Greg Oden and Nicloas Batum are bound to improve in their second campaigns. So this team won 54 games a season ago and lost no player of importance while gaining two new pieces. If coach Nate McMillan can keep everyone on the same page and they shore up their backup PF situation, look out.

Eyes On – Rudy Fernandez. He groused about minutes twice during the summer only to say everything is fine later. He’s too important to be a disruptive influence.

Now or Never – Travis Outlaw. Has an expiring contract, hasn’t improved his game much over the years and plays a position Portland is stacked at. Can you say trade bait?

3. San Antonio Spurs – When Owner Peter Holt gave GM R.C. Buford the OK to exceed the luxury tax for the first time ever the Spurs brain trust basically admitted what everyone else was thinking…that their window is closing. The additions of Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess should keep it open a bit longer, but this is still an old bunch. That said if they are healthy for the post season they will be a very tough out.

Eyes On – Tim Duncan. He visibly slowed down as last season wore on, and right knee tendonosis doesn’t sound like something that goes away.

Now or Never – Manu Ginobili. With surgery on both ankles a thing of that past can he stay healthy enough in a contract year to earn another big payday?

4. Dallas Mavericks – I really like the squad that President Donnie Nelson has put together here. They might not be a bunch of big names but what they are is deep and versatile. It will be on coach Rick Carlisle to not only keep everyone happy but also get them to use their length and athleticism to become an elite defensive unit. I think this is the sleeper team of the entire league and if they gel they will be murder in the playoffs.

Eyes On – Josh Howard. Has a virtual expiring contract and is being moved to SG coming off left ankle and wrist surgery. If things don’t work out he’ll be the first to go.

Now or Never – Dirk Nowitzki. He’s only 31 but is an eleven-year veteran and has been trending down since ’05-06. This club can do some things if he steps up and leads them.

5. Denver Nuggets – Owner Stan Kroenke’s refusal to pay the luxury tax really tied the hands of VP Mark Warkentien this summer. Denver replaced the Dahntay Jones/Linas Kleiza combo with Arron Afflalo/Joey Graham (downgrades) and their 4th and 5th big men are Malik Allen and Johan Petro…YUCK! Couple those factors with coach George Karl being a lame duck and I see the Nugs taking a step backwards this season.

Eyes On – Chauncey Billups. He was such a massive improvement from Allen Iverson in terms of chemistry and leadership that no one really noticed he lost a step last year.

Now or Never – Carmelo Anthony. With few changes to the roster it’s up to him elevate his game another notch (ahem defense) if Denver is going to remain in the upper crust.

6. Utah Jazz – The Jazz are another team that did practically nothing in the off-season to avoid the luxury tax with rookie PG Eric Maynor being the lone addition to their roster. To make matters worse C.J. Miles (left thumb) is out indefinitely, Matt Harpring (right knee/ankle) is considering retirement and Kyle Korver (left knee surgery) will miss time too. Coach Jerry Sloan and PG Deron Williams have their work cut out for them.

Eyes On – Carlos Boozer. Can he stay healthy, be a good solider and put up big numbers in his contract year? History says no on at least two out of three so a trade is possible.

Now or Never – Ronnie Brewer. He’s the only healthy SG on the entire roster right now and he’s going to be a restricted free agent. Too bad he’s a career 22.9% shooter from 3.

7. New Orleans Hornets – I like what GM Jeff Bower did in the summer to address his squad’s lack of depth while dancing around the luxury tax line. The fact remains that the Hornets still have a huge hole at SG though. Chris Paul’s greatness and a stout defense should be enough to carry them to the post season. However coach Byron Scott is a lame duck and his style began grating on players last season, so things could get ugly fast too.

Eyes On – Emeka Okafor. Since he’s never been in a winning situation it’s only fair to question what kind of contribution he’ll be able to make.

Now or Never – Julian Wright. Being handed the starting SF spot in his third year without earning it. Since he can’t shoot it must be because of his defense.

8. Los Angeles Clippers – I know they only won 19 games last year, but I’m kind of surprised how little ink this group is getting. They are stacked with quality big men and have enough shooters and slashers as well. The one weak spot on the roster is backup PG (sorry Sebastian Telfair & Mardy Collins). But if coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. can get them to play some defense and share the ball on offense this could really be a dangerous club.

Eyes On – Rasual Butler. If he fills the role of defensive stopper/spot up 3-point shooter in his contract year he should earn himself a nice new deal.

Now or Never – Baron Davis. With no back up, a fat contract and plenty of talent around him it’s time for B Diddy to get in shape, play smart and be a leader.

9. Phoenix Suns – The one significant addition GM Steve Kerr made to their roster was Channing Frye…and he’s going to be their starting center. Then you look at their bench and the only guy worth anything is Leandro Barbosa. I don’t expect them to defend or rebound either. The only reason they are ninth is because they will have a full season under coach Alvin Gentry’s running offense and will outscore people occasionally.

Eyes On – Amar’e Stoudemire. Will he be the same player after retina surgery on his right eye? We should have an answer quickly since he’s in a virtual contract year.

Now or Never – Jason Richardson. Entering his ninth season it would be nice to see him become something besides a gunner with no interest in defense. I won’t hold my breath.

10. Oklahoma City Thunder – Everyone’s favorite young team should benefit from a full training camp under coach Scott Brooks. They also have so much young talent they can’t help but improve. To truly make the jump to playoff level though Russell Westbrook and Nenad Krstic have to step up their games. While the Thunder have a nice starting five their lack of depth and experience means they are likely still a year away.

Eyes On – Kevin Durant. Got into an online argument with a blogger about his awful +/- numbers. Hopefully at some point he realizes there’s more to the game than scoring.

Now or Never – Thabo Sefolosha. My boy better have worked on his jumper in the off-season or else restricted free agency won’t be kind to him this summer.

11. Houston Rockets – When Yao Ming (left foot) was lost for the season GM Daryl Morey went from trying to build a contender to building for the future in the blink of an eye. Can’t say that I blame him, but the Rockets are seriously undersized up front and lack a legitimate go-to scorer. That said this group will hustle, defend and try and out work their opponent. I expect they will catch many a club napping this season.

Eyes On – Aaron Brooks. Is he really a number one or two scoring option over 82 games? Can he defend and keep his teammates involved enough if he is?

Now or Never – Tracy McGrady. Coming off microfracture surgery to his left knee in a contract year doesn’t seem like a recipe for success. Is he up to the challenge mentally?

12. Golden State Warriors – This franchise is a total mess. They ran the only guy that knew what he was doing out of town (Chris Mullin) and handed the reins to coach Don Nelson. So it should come as no surprise that the Warriors are stacked with athletic swingmen who can score. Nellie does have the horses to mix and match unconventional lineups as he sees fit, but defense will be optional as always.

Eyes On – Stephen Jackson. He’s had a full season’s worth of controversy already. Think President Robert Rowell regrets that three-year $28 million extension yet?

Now or Never – Monta Ellis. Since signing his six-year $66 million contract he has done nothing but get in a moped accident. Talk is cheap son, time to earn your money.

13. Memphis Grizzlies – It’s convenient to blame GM Chris Wallace for this mess, but everyone knows that owner Michael Heisley makes the personnel decisions in Memphis. How else could you explain virtually trading Pau Gasol for Zach Randolph? Or adding cancers like Z-Bo and AI to this promising mix of youngsters? Or naming Lionel Hollins head coach? They are going to stink while being so darn entertaining. I can’t wait!

Eyes On – Allen Iverson. Tore his left hamstring in training camp, so you know he focused on basketball in the summer. Can he play a role for the first time in his career?

Now or Never – Marcus Williams. On his third team in only four years in the league. Hopefully he’s in shape and ready to play smart. Otherwise he better have a passport.

14. Minnesota Timberwolves – Al Jefferson tore his right ACL last season and Kevin Love will miss the first six to eight weeks of this season after surgery on his left hand. This franchise is either very unlucky or cursed, which is not good news for new head coach Kurt Rambis. They lack depth everywhere, won’t defend much and aren’t very experienced. President David Kahn says he has a plan, but I’m not sure I believe him.

Eyes On – Ramon Sessions. He was the free agent steal of the summer at four years $16 million. I do wonder how he’s going to take to not being the starting PG though.

Now or Never – Corey Brewer. After tearing the ACL in his right knee last year he must prove he’s not a liability on offense. A jumper, a handle, any kind of threat will do.

15. Sacramento Kings – President Geoff Petrie has put together a nice young frontcourt here in Francisco Garcia, Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes. It’s a shame that Garcia will miss four months (right forearm/wrist) after a freak physioball accident. New coach Paul Westphal really has his work cut out for him though with this mix of youngsters and has beens. They won’t play much defense or rebound but at least they’ll run and gun.

Eyes On – Kevin Martin. He was bothered by a left ankle injury all last season that slowed him noticeably. Look for him to put up massive numbers on this awful squad.

Now or Never – Sergio Rodriguez. He couldn’t ask for a better situation in his contract year. All he has to do is show some interest in defense and keep his turnovers down.

Final Four – Lakers, Dallas, San Antonio, Portland

Western Finals – Lakers, San Antonio

NBA Finals – Boston, Lakers

NBA Champion – Lakers

Eastern Conference Preview

With the computer troubles of last season a thing of the past it’s time to get back to the keyboard for some NBA analysis. Hopefully I’m over my summer of laziness too. It’s hard for me to believe that I’ve seen ELEVEN Phish shows since Hampton and reviewed NONE.

Man, is that bad.

Anyway, the East is very strong up top but the middle to the bottom still stinks.

1. Orlando Magic – This group is deep, versatile, can shoot the 3 and knows how to play team defense. Coach Stan Van Gundy can alter his lineups/rotation to match up with any kind of team. SVG’s biggest problem might be finding enough minutes to keep everyone happy. The Magic can sustain injuries to anyone on their roster (including Dwight Howard) and survive which is why I see them ending up with the best record in the East.

Eyes On – Jameer Nelson. Is he the borderline All-Star from ’05-06 and ’08-09 (pre-injury) or the mediocre PG from his three other seasons?

Now or Never – Vince Carter. He’s never been on a team as talented as this one. If he steps up in the playoffs he can silence all his critics at once.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers – These guys are built more for the post season than the grind of the regular campaign, but there is still an awful lot of depth and versatility on this roster. The acquisition of Shaquille O’Neal garnered all the attention in the summer, but I think Anthony Parker, Leon Powe and Jamario Moon will have a bigger impact over the long haul than the Diesel will. The Cavs can certainly finish atop the East if they stay healthy.

Eyes On – Delonte West. A Desperado impersonation (3 guns in a guitar case) riding a motorcycle in Maryland? I can’t to see what’s next with this guy!

Now or Never – Mo Williams. Is he really a starting PG on a championship team? I have my doubts.

3. Boston Celtics – This club goes as far as Kevin Garnett’s right knee takes them. Yes they are deeper than they have been in the past, but it’s KG’s defensive presence that really makes the Celtics special. Paul Pierce’s production has quietly been slipping since ’05-06 and Ray Allen is a 34-year-old SG. Make no mistake; these boys will be very dangerous in the playoffs, but injuries will get them at some point in the regular season.

Eyes On – Rajon Rondo. He was shopped in the summer after being Boston’s best player in the post season. How will he behave if his contract isn’t extended by 10/31?

Now or Never – Rasheed Wallace. Was he just not into it mentally in Detroit or are his skills beginning to decline? This C’s bunch doesn’t dog it, so we’ll get an answer soon.

4. Atlanta Hawks – These guys have plenty of big game experience as a unit and can play some seriously tough team defense when the pressure is on. The bad news is Mike Woodson is now a lame duck coach and their star player turned down a four-year $60 million extension in the summer. So which way are the Hawks headed? Well I’d say they are better than the rest of the East, but not good enough to crack the upper crust.

Eyes On – Joe Johnson. Entering the final year of his contract will he play team ball or try and get his? Better question, can he consistently get his for 82 games any more?

Now or Never – Jamal Crawford. He steps into the instant offense sixth man role vacated by Flip Murray. The question remains though, is Crawford a winner or a cancer?

5. Washington Wizards – New coach Flip Saunders arrives to a mostly healthy squad with some nice youth/depth as well. Saunders is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA, and this club is built for his style of offense. That said it’s not like he’s going to get them to be an elite defensive team. As long as Antawn Jamison’s right shoulder injury isn’t too serious I think Flip and the Wiz will surprise a few people.

Eyes On – Gilbert Arenas. He’s accumulated $40K worth of fines for NOT talking to media already. If he decides to become a playmaker first and scorer second, look out.

Now or Never – Randy Foye. He was handed playing time in Minnesota that he never earned, so it’s not like he needed a change of scenery to prove he can’t play.

6. Philadelphia 76ers – New coach Eddie Jordan’s task is simple; find a way to blend open court speed with a strong half court low post presence. If the Sixers can continue to play tough defense and out work their opposition while at the same time finding some balance on offense they could be better than expected. But if the D regresses or the lack of a true PG haunts them they could easily miss the playoffs.

Eyes On – Lou Williams. Guys without PG instincts don’t grow them overnight, but I suppose he deserves a chance to prove himself before I rip him.

Now or Never – Elton Brand. Looked a step slow after left Achilles surgery last season. It’s time for him to earn his money, but his teammates have to get him the ball too.

7. Chicago Bulls – The good news here is that both coach Vinny Del Negro and PG Derrick Rose should be improved from their rookie years. The bad news is they still lack a legitimate low post scoring threat. This club is relatively deep and pretty athletic but the parts don’t really fit together like they should. Much of the Bulls success this season depends on how great a leap Rose makes, and I’m betting it will be sizable.

Eyes On – Luol Deng. After losing last season to a stress fracture (right leg) he must return to his ’06-07 form, be a true #2 scoring option and start earning his paycheck.

Now or Never – Tyrus Thomas. Entering his fourth (contract) year I still don’t know what this guy is besides an athletic super-freak?

8. Toronto Raptors – GM Bryan Colangelo tore his club to the ground this summer keeping only three rotation players from the previous season. His stamp is now all over this team including coach Jay Triano. Colangelo is obviously trying to recreate his version of the Phoenix Suns. All offense, no defense, shoot threes and be soft on the glass. The Raps have the talent to make the playoffs, but will they have the chemistry?

Eyes On – Jose Calderon. He has to be 100% recovered from his injury (right hamstring) and return to his ‘07-08 form for Toronto to do anything.

Now or Never – Amir Johnson. He went from super-promising to on his way out of the league in one year. Europe will be calling after this season if he doesn’t show something

9. Indiana Pacers – These guys lost a ton of close games last year, had a bunch of injuries and still almost made the playoffs. If coach Jim O’Brien can get them to play a little better defense I think they could be thee surprise team in the East. Of course if they have injuries again they will be terrible because their bench consists of has-beens, never-weres and not-yets. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they qualify for the post season.

Eyes On – Mike Dunleavy Jr. He was very quietly on the verge of breaking out before right knee troubles derailed him. If he can find that form again Indy will be dangerous.

Now or Never – T.J. Ford. IF he can stay healthy he’s got to start being more of a pass first PG, because the fact of the matter is he’s proven not to be a great scorer/shooter.

10. Miami Heat – On paper this squad stinks. Dwyane Wade’s greatness and coach Erik Spoelstra’s smarts burned me last year, but I’m taking both of those factors into account this season. Wade will have to play in 75+ games and their defense will have to be stellar for them to have any chance to make the playoffs. This summer is really more important than the season for the Heat since they have NO ONE under contract for next season.

Eyes On – Michael Beasley. He is penciled in as their starting SF, which should be fine on offense. But I seriously doubt he can defend that position on a nightly basis.

Now or Never – Jermaine O’Neal. Can the 23 million-dollar-man stay healthy enough to earn a quarter of that on his next contract?

11. Detroit Pistons – So President Joe Dumars “rebuilding plan” called for $130 million to be handed out to Richard Hamilton, Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva and Chris Wilcox? I think it’s safe to the shine is officially off Joe D as a personnel man. Anyway, his choice to guide this group is John Kuester, who of course has no experience as a head coach. These Pistons will score points but won’t stop ANYBODY.

Eyes On – Will Bynum. In the small amount of playing time he received last season he really impressed me. Might steal Stuckey’s job if given the opportunity.

Now or Never – Rodney Stuckey. He did not make the expected jump from his rookie to sophomore campaign. In fact Detroit’s PG of the future might actually be a SG.

12. Charlotte Bobcats – What happens when you let coach Larry Brown make personnel decisions? Well you end up with a roster full of defensive minded journeymen. And that my friends is exactly what you have in Charlotte right now. There’s no doubt this team will be able to defend with the best of them. I just don’t see any way they score enough points to win on a consistent basis, much less make the playoffs.

Eyes On – Raymond Felton. After waiting all summer for a long-term contract he finally accepted the qualifying offer. This has season-long feud with LB written all over it.

Now or Never – Gerald Wallace. The highest paid returning Bobcat should be more of star/leader/scorer by now, shouldn’t he?

13. Milwaukee Bucks – This team has some talent and depth but neither is really top quality. Coach Scott Skiles likes tough defensive minded players and I don’t see many of those on the Bucks roster. Not to mention their two best players are coming off serious injuries. To me this is another squad that will struggle to score points night in and night out. They will play hard though, so that has to count for something, right?

Eyes On – Andrew Bogut. The stress fracture in his back is supposedly healed, but will it hold up for 82 games?

Now or Never – Luke Ridnour. Will entering his contract year finally give him the motivation to improve his jump shot? Probably not.

14. New Jersey Nets – This season has turmoil written all over it for the Nets. Their ownership situation is up in the air, as is the future home of the franchise. Not to mention that both President Rod Thorn and coach Lawrence Frank are in the finals years of their contracts. So we have a lame duck owner, arena, GM and coach…WOW! But hey, at least they’ve drawn well this pre-season when they’ve played in Newark.

Eyes On – Courtney Lee. Already a top-notch defender I expect his offensive game to blossom in the Swamp since he’ll be given more opportunities to score.

Now or Never – Yi Jianlian. As he enters his third year I’ve seen ZERO improvement in both his skills and physical shape. I’m starting to think he doesn’t want it bad enough.

15. New York Knicks – Since no one in their right mind is taking Eddy Curry off their hands, the only interesting thing about this bunch is whether or not President Donnie Walsh will be able to move Jared Jeffries’ contract by the trade deadline. Other than that this club won’t defend and the roster lacks the 3-point shooters that coach Mike D’Antoni’s system requires. It’s going to be another long year in Gotham.

Eyes On – Danilo Gallinari. Not the best athlete but has a very nice touch on his jumper and a high basketball IQ. Should get tons of minutes on this atrocious squad.

Now or Never – Darko Milicic. As long as he defends and rebounds he’ll be given the freedom to do whatever he wants on offense. Quite an opportunity in a contract year.

Final Four – Orlando, Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland

Eastern Finals – Orlando, Boston