Western Conference Preview

This is the section of my yearly previews where I remind everyone of my past successes. As in I’ve predicted (in October) the eventual NBA Champion in two of the past three seasons. I’ve also had at least one team from my preseason previews make the NBA Finals in four of the past five years.

The great thing about having a blog is you can see for yourself if you don’t believe me. Just search the archives.

The West is still better than the East overall, but the bottom of the West features some truly horrid squads.

1. Los Angeles Lakers – The defending champs are stacked and primed for a repeat. Their defense will certainly be better, but the offense will take some time to come around before everyone settles into their roles. Kobe Bryant’s tyrant-like drive will keep them on course but the Lakers WILL hit a few rough patches this year. And while I think they are a lock for the best record in the West, they will have to earn the best record overall.

Eyes On – Ron Artest. What do LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce have in common? They are three guys Trevor Ariza couldn’t guard that Artest can.

Now or Never – Jordan Farmar. I’m just going to pretend like last season didn’t happen. Being the starting PG for a possible dynasty is right there for him to step up and grab.

2. Portland Trail Blazers – They added a veteran PG in Andre Miller, get Martell Webster (left foot) back from injury and both Greg Oden and Nicloas Batum are bound to improve in their second campaigns. So this team won 54 games a season ago and lost no player of importance while gaining two new pieces. If coach Nate McMillan can keep everyone on the same page and they shore up their backup PF situation, look out.

Eyes On – Rudy Fernandez. He groused about minutes twice during the summer only to say everything is fine later. He’s too important to be a disruptive influence.

Now or Never – Travis Outlaw. Has an expiring contract, hasn’t improved his game much over the years and plays a position Portland is stacked at. Can you say trade bait?

3. San Antonio Spurs – When Owner Peter Holt gave GM R.C. Buford the OK to exceed the luxury tax for the first time ever the Spurs brain trust basically admitted what everyone else was thinking…that their window is closing. The additions of Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess should keep it open a bit longer, but this is still an old bunch. That said if they are healthy for the post season they will be a very tough out.

Eyes On – Tim Duncan. He visibly slowed down as last season wore on, and right knee tendonosis doesn’t sound like something that goes away.

Now or Never – Manu Ginobili. With surgery on both ankles a thing of that past can he stay healthy enough in a contract year to earn another big payday?

4. Dallas Mavericks – I really like the squad that President Donnie Nelson has put together here. They might not be a bunch of big names but what they are is deep and versatile. It will be on coach Rick Carlisle to not only keep everyone happy but also get them to use their length and athleticism to become an elite defensive unit. I think this is the sleeper team of the entire league and if they gel they will be murder in the playoffs.

Eyes On – Josh Howard. Has a virtual expiring contract and is being moved to SG coming off left ankle and wrist surgery. If things don’t work out he’ll be the first to go.

Now or Never – Dirk Nowitzki. He’s only 31 but is an eleven-year veteran and has been trending down since ’05-06. This club can do some things if he steps up and leads them.

5. Denver Nuggets – Owner Stan Kroenke’s refusal to pay the luxury tax really tied the hands of VP Mark Warkentien this summer. Denver replaced the Dahntay Jones/Linas Kleiza combo with Arron Afflalo/Joey Graham (downgrades) and their 4th and 5th big men are Malik Allen and Johan Petro…YUCK! Couple those factors with coach George Karl being a lame duck and I see the Nugs taking a step backwards this season.

Eyes On – Chauncey Billups. He was such a massive improvement from Allen Iverson in terms of chemistry and leadership that no one really noticed he lost a step last year.

Now or Never – Carmelo Anthony. With few changes to the roster it’s up to him elevate his game another notch (ahem defense) if Denver is going to remain in the upper crust.

6. Utah Jazz – The Jazz are another team that did practically nothing in the off-season to avoid the luxury tax with rookie PG Eric Maynor being the lone addition to their roster. To make matters worse C.J. Miles (left thumb) is out indefinitely, Matt Harpring (right knee/ankle) is considering retirement and Kyle Korver (left knee surgery) will miss time too. Coach Jerry Sloan and PG Deron Williams have their work cut out for them.

Eyes On – Carlos Boozer. Can he stay healthy, be a good solider and put up big numbers in his contract year? History says no on at least two out of three so a trade is possible.

Now or Never – Ronnie Brewer. He’s the only healthy SG on the entire roster right now and he’s going to be a restricted free agent. Too bad he’s a career 22.9% shooter from 3.

7. New Orleans Hornets – I like what GM Jeff Bower did in the summer to address his squad’s lack of depth while dancing around the luxury tax line. The fact remains that the Hornets still have a huge hole at SG though. Chris Paul’s greatness and a stout defense should be enough to carry them to the post season. However coach Byron Scott is a lame duck and his style began grating on players last season, so things could get ugly fast too.

Eyes On – Emeka Okafor. Since he’s never been in a winning situation it’s only fair to question what kind of contribution he’ll be able to make.

Now or Never – Julian Wright. Being handed the starting SF spot in his third year without earning it. Since he can’t shoot it must be because of his defense.

8. Los Angeles Clippers – I know they only won 19 games last year, but I’m kind of surprised how little ink this group is getting. They are stacked with quality big men and have enough shooters and slashers as well. The one weak spot on the roster is backup PG (sorry Sebastian Telfair & Mardy Collins). But if coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. can get them to play some defense and share the ball on offense this could really be a dangerous club.

Eyes On – Rasual Butler. If he fills the role of defensive stopper/spot up 3-point shooter in his contract year he should earn himself a nice new deal.

Now or Never – Baron Davis. With no back up, a fat contract and plenty of talent around him it’s time for B Diddy to get in shape, play smart and be a leader.

9. Phoenix Suns – The one significant addition GM Steve Kerr made to their roster was Channing Frye…and he’s going to be their starting center. Then you look at their bench and the only guy worth anything is Leandro Barbosa. I don’t expect them to defend or rebound either. The only reason they are ninth is because they will have a full season under coach Alvin Gentry’s running offense and will outscore people occasionally.

Eyes On – Amar’e Stoudemire. Will he be the same player after retina surgery on his right eye? We should have an answer quickly since he’s in a virtual contract year.

Now or Never – Jason Richardson. Entering his ninth season it would be nice to see him become something besides a gunner with no interest in defense. I won’t hold my breath.

10. Oklahoma City Thunder – Everyone’s favorite young team should benefit from a full training camp under coach Scott Brooks. They also have so much young talent they can’t help but improve. To truly make the jump to playoff level though Russell Westbrook and Nenad Krstic have to step up their games. While the Thunder have a nice starting five their lack of depth and experience means they are likely still a year away.

Eyes On – Kevin Durant. Got into an online argument with a blogger about his awful +/- numbers. Hopefully at some point he realizes there’s more to the game than scoring.

Now or Never – Thabo Sefolosha. My boy better have worked on his jumper in the off-season or else restricted free agency won’t be kind to him this summer.

11. Houston Rockets – When Yao Ming (left foot) was lost for the season GM Daryl Morey went from trying to build a contender to building for the future in the blink of an eye. Can’t say that I blame him, but the Rockets are seriously undersized up front and lack a legitimate go-to scorer. That said this group will hustle, defend and try and out work their opponent. I expect they will catch many a club napping this season.

Eyes On – Aaron Brooks. Is he really a number one or two scoring option over 82 games? Can he defend and keep his teammates involved enough if he is?

Now or Never – Tracy McGrady. Coming off microfracture surgery to his left knee in a contract year doesn’t seem like a recipe for success. Is he up to the challenge mentally?

12. Golden State Warriors – This franchise is a total mess. They ran the only guy that knew what he was doing out of town (Chris Mullin) and handed the reins to coach Don Nelson. So it should come as no surprise that the Warriors are stacked with athletic swingmen who can score. Nellie does have the horses to mix and match unconventional lineups as he sees fit, but defense will be optional as always.

Eyes On – Stephen Jackson. He’s had a full season’s worth of controversy already. Think President Robert Rowell regrets that three-year $28 million extension yet?

Now or Never – Monta Ellis. Since signing his six-year $66 million contract he has done nothing but get in a moped accident. Talk is cheap son, time to earn your money.

13. Memphis Grizzlies – It’s convenient to blame GM Chris Wallace for this mess, but everyone knows that owner Michael Heisley makes the personnel decisions in Memphis. How else could you explain virtually trading Pau Gasol for Zach Randolph? Or adding cancers like Z-Bo and AI to this promising mix of youngsters? Or naming Lionel Hollins head coach? They are going to stink while being so darn entertaining. I can’t wait!

Eyes On – Allen Iverson. Tore his left hamstring in training camp, so you know he focused on basketball in the summer. Can he play a role for the first time in his career?

Now or Never – Marcus Williams. On his third team in only four years in the league. Hopefully he’s in shape and ready to play smart. Otherwise he better have a passport.

14. Minnesota Timberwolves – Al Jefferson tore his right ACL last season and Kevin Love will miss the first six to eight weeks of this season after surgery on his left hand. This franchise is either very unlucky or cursed, which is not good news for new head coach Kurt Rambis. They lack depth everywhere, won’t defend much and aren’t very experienced. President David Kahn says he has a plan, but I’m not sure I believe him.

Eyes On – Ramon Sessions. He was the free agent steal of the summer at four years $16 million. I do wonder how he’s going to take to not being the starting PG though.

Now or Never – Corey Brewer. After tearing the ACL in his right knee last year he must prove he’s not a liability on offense. A jumper, a handle, any kind of threat will do.

15. Sacramento Kings – President Geoff Petrie has put together a nice young frontcourt here in Francisco Garcia, Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes. It’s a shame that Garcia will miss four months (right forearm/wrist) after a freak physioball accident. New coach Paul Westphal really has his work cut out for him though with this mix of youngsters and has beens. They won’t play much defense or rebound but at least they’ll run and gun.

Eyes On – Kevin Martin. He was bothered by a left ankle injury all last season that slowed him noticeably. Look for him to put up massive numbers on this awful squad.

Now or Never – Sergio Rodriguez. He couldn’t ask for a better situation in his contract year. All he has to do is show some interest in defense and keep his turnovers down.

Final Four – Lakers, Dallas, San Antonio, Portland

Western Finals – Lakers, San Antonio

NBA Finals – Boston, Lakers

NBA Champion – Lakers