First Round
This is becoming all too regular on my blog, but I have to apologize to my regular readers since my first round breakdowns won’t be quite as in depth as usual. A new/different format may actually be a good thing. Or maybe the old way will come back for round two? We shall see. I just flat out don’t have the energy or time to go as overboard as I usually do in one night. But I would be remiss if I didn’t give the gamblers out there the info they need to succeed.
To my growing legion of new readers, welcome.
Now let’s get down to business.
EAST
Pistons at Cavaliers
Cleveland – They have the home court, LeBron James and are relatively healthy with the exception of Ben Wallace (left knee). They also finished second in defensive field goal percentage (OPFG%), third in rebound differential (RBDF) and closed the season on a 14-3 kick. As long as they play their normal suffocating D, make open outside shots and feed off their home crowd I can’t see them having a problem.
Detroit – Even though they went 6-12 over the final month of the season, they somehow still think they will be able to “flip the switch.” Well since they haven’t been able to do that for three seasons running, don’t have Chauncey Billups anymore and have seriously downgraded at coach, I’ll go out on a limb and say that’s not happening. Then factor in that Rasheed Wallace (left calf) and Richard Hamilton (left groin) aren’t truly healthy and we’re looking at the end of an era in Motown.
The pick – Cavs in 4
Bulls at Celtics
Boston – I know Kevin Garnett (right knee) is out for the post season, but the C’s went 18-7 without him (a .720 winning percentage) and finished the last month on a 12-4 kick. They are also first in OPFG%, second in RBDF and still have Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and the vastly underrated Rajon Rondo. As long as they keep the pace of the game slow and focus on playing their brand of lockdown defense I see them sticking around for at least one more round.
Chicago – They finished 14th in OPFG% and 20th in RBDF, but closed out the season a very respectable 11-4. So they are peaking at the right time and also possess enough athleticism to give Boston fits. Conversely they don’t have a low post threat to take advantage of KG’s absence. They are also led by a rookie PG and coach and don’t pose any serious matchup problems to Boston.
The pick – Celts in 5
76ers at Magic
Orlando – They stumbled a bit over the last month going 11-6, but are an excellent defensive squad (3rd in OPFG%) and can rebound as well (9th in RBDF). They must to pound the ball into Dwight Howard excessively since Philly has no one that can even remotely check him. If Orlando does that, takes care of the ball, and makes open 3-pointers they will be just fine. The one caveat being the health of Rashard Lewis (right knee) and Hedo Turkoglu (left ankle).
Philadelphia – I must admit that I’m sick to death of this team and interim coach Tony DiLeo. They went a measly 9-10 over the last month, are 18th in OPFG% and a rather surprising 6th in RBDF. Their only chance to win is to play fast, create a bunch of turnovers and get tons of easy baskets. The problem is I don’t think their collective discipline as a unit is capable of that. I will give the Sixers this though, they will hustle and play hard until the bitter end.
The pick – Magic in 5
Heat at Hawks
Atlanta – They finished the last month of the season a rather unimpressive 9-7, are 25th in RBDF and 11th in OPFG%. What they do have going for them though is experience, athleticism and a rowdy home crowd. The Hawks normally use their plethora of athletes to “jump double” Dwyane Wade on every pick and roll, forcing him to either pass or pull back and take a jumper. The two keys for the ATL are to make someone besides Wade beat them and to play smart on offense. A healthy Marvin Williams (back) would help too.
Miami – Let’s see here…7-10 over the final month, 26th in RBDF, 13th in OPFG% and a rookie PG, coach and sixth man. Oh yeah, and Udonis Haslem (right thumb), Jermaine O’Neal (left calf), Jamario Moon (right groin) and Wade (right hip) aren’t right. I really only give the Heaters a chance because of the greatness of D Wade, otherwise the rest of their roster is pretty much slop. They have to turn each game into a slug fest, keep it close and hope Wade can save them in the end.
The pick – Hawks in 7
WEST
Jazz at Lakers
Los Angeles – Call me crazy, but I kind of feel like the Lakers aren’t getting the respect they deserve. I don’t know how that’s even possible when they went 13-4 over the last month (including a grueling 7 game road trip), are 5th in RBDF, 6th in OPFG%, played without their starting center for 32 games and only finished 1 game out of the best record overall. The one worry I do have going forward is the play of PG’s Derek Fisher (12.15 PER) and Jordan Farmar (9.93). You know things are shaky when Shannon Brown (12.95) has the best PER amongst your PG’s.
Utah – These are not your parent’s Jazz, although they still stink on the road (15-26). They backed into the playoffs on a 7-10 slide, are 20th in OPFG% and 14th in RBDF. Carlos Boozer (left knee) still doesn’t look right and C.J. Miles (left index finger) and Memo Okur (right hamstring) are also dinged up. Plus there are suddenly reports of locker room friction beginning to surface. Deron Williams can score on the Lakers whenever he wants to, but Utah’s versatile front line won’t cause LA any problems.
The pick – Lakers in 4
Hornets at Nuggets
Denver – They closed out the last month on a 12-3 tear and are 4th OPFG%. Where this club slips, as always, is on the chemistry and playing smart fronts. Yes Chauncey Billups has helped, but if things start going bad this group could implode in a hurry. And while they are a good defensive team, I don’t see them having anyone that can bother Chris Paul even slightly. They need to run and pound the ball inside as much as possible to take advantage of their superior depth.
New Orleans – They are severely banged up and sputtered to a 8-9 finish. None of Peja Stojakovic (back), Tyson Chandler (right ankle), James Posey (left elbow) or David West (left ankle) have looked right for some time. CP3 wills his team to compete though and the Hornets are 7th in OPFG%. But I really question if they have the depth up front, much less the health, to compete over a seven game series at altitude.
The pick – Nugs in 6
Mavericks at Spurs
San Antonio – No Manu Ginobili (right ankle) and a hobbled Tim Duncan (tendonosis both knees) means it’s Tony Parker time. I think it’s kind of flown under the radar, but Mr. Longoria has been carrying the Spurs over the second half of the season. That said they did only go 10-7 down the stretch, are 15th in RBDF and 9th in OPFG% (bad for them). Watching them pull out the final game of the season though I saw that there was still something left deep inside them. Their savvy, coaching and discipline combined with home court still means they will be a very tough out.
Dallas – Everyone is saying how they are peaking at the right time, but they were a very average 10-6 to close the year. Couple that with a mediocre defense (12th in OPFG%) and Josh Howard (left ankle) being hurt and it’s not actually that rosy a picture. However, SA typically has no answers for Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs are the better rebounding team (8th in RBDF). Dallas must push the tempo at all times to take advantage of their depth. If they can do that and somehow not let Parker kill them this will be an extremely competitive series.
The pick – Spurs in 7
Rockets at Trail Blazers
Portland – They finished the season on a 13-4 kick (two of the losses were in OT too) and are number one in RBDF. Yet their D can be shaky at times (17th in OPFG%) and their most experienced playoff performer amongst regulars is Steve Blake (9 games). That said they do have the horses to matchup with Yao Ming in Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden. Home court is going to be huge for such a young group, but it remains to be seen how guys like Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez will perform under post season pressure for the first time.
Houston – They really blew it on the final night of the season and I wonder if that will linger with them a little. They did play decent over the final month (10-4) and are 4th in RBDF and 5th in OPFG%. The Rockets also have some very solid defenders to throw at the Blazers’ best players. Shane Battier and Ron Artest will harass Roy and Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry will be all over Aldridge. I worry about Houston’s PG situation, their streaky outside shooting and when they “forget” to pump the ball to Yao.
The pick – Blazers in 7
To my growing legion of new readers, welcome.
Now let’s get down to business.
EAST
Pistons at Cavaliers
Cleveland – They have the home court, LeBron James and are relatively healthy with the exception of Ben Wallace (left knee). They also finished second in defensive field goal percentage (OPFG%), third in rebound differential (RBDF) and closed the season on a 14-3 kick. As long as they play their normal suffocating D, make open outside shots and feed off their home crowd I can’t see them having a problem.
Detroit – Even though they went 6-12 over the final month of the season, they somehow still think they will be able to “flip the switch.” Well since they haven’t been able to do that for three seasons running, don’t have Chauncey Billups anymore and have seriously downgraded at coach, I’ll go out on a limb and say that’s not happening. Then factor in that Rasheed Wallace (left calf) and Richard Hamilton (left groin) aren’t truly healthy and we’re looking at the end of an era in Motown.
The pick – Cavs in 4
Bulls at Celtics
Boston – I know Kevin Garnett (right knee) is out for the post season, but the C’s went 18-7 without him (a .720 winning percentage) and finished the last month on a 12-4 kick. They are also first in OPFG%, second in RBDF and still have Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and the vastly underrated Rajon Rondo. As long as they keep the pace of the game slow and focus on playing their brand of lockdown defense I see them sticking around for at least one more round.
Chicago – They finished 14th in OPFG% and 20th in RBDF, but closed out the season a very respectable 11-4. So they are peaking at the right time and also possess enough athleticism to give Boston fits. Conversely they don’t have a low post threat to take advantage of KG’s absence. They are also led by a rookie PG and coach and don’t pose any serious matchup problems to Boston.
The pick – Celts in 5
76ers at Magic
Orlando – They stumbled a bit over the last month going 11-6, but are an excellent defensive squad (3rd in OPFG%) and can rebound as well (9th in RBDF). They must to pound the ball into Dwight Howard excessively since Philly has no one that can even remotely check him. If Orlando does that, takes care of the ball, and makes open 3-pointers they will be just fine. The one caveat being the health of Rashard Lewis (right knee) and Hedo Turkoglu (left ankle).
Philadelphia – I must admit that I’m sick to death of this team and interim coach Tony DiLeo. They went a measly 9-10 over the last month, are 18th in OPFG% and a rather surprising 6th in RBDF. Their only chance to win is to play fast, create a bunch of turnovers and get tons of easy baskets. The problem is I don’t think their collective discipline as a unit is capable of that. I will give the Sixers this though, they will hustle and play hard until the bitter end.
The pick – Magic in 5
Heat at Hawks
Atlanta – They finished the last month of the season a rather unimpressive 9-7, are 25th in RBDF and 11th in OPFG%. What they do have going for them though is experience, athleticism and a rowdy home crowd. The Hawks normally use their plethora of athletes to “jump double” Dwyane Wade on every pick and roll, forcing him to either pass or pull back and take a jumper. The two keys for the ATL are to make someone besides Wade beat them and to play smart on offense. A healthy Marvin Williams (back) would help too.
Miami – Let’s see here…7-10 over the final month, 26th in RBDF, 13th in OPFG% and a rookie PG, coach and sixth man. Oh yeah, and Udonis Haslem (right thumb), Jermaine O’Neal (left calf), Jamario Moon (right groin) and Wade (right hip) aren’t right. I really only give the Heaters a chance because of the greatness of D Wade, otherwise the rest of their roster is pretty much slop. They have to turn each game into a slug fest, keep it close and hope Wade can save them in the end.
The pick – Hawks in 7
WEST
Jazz at Lakers
Los Angeles – Call me crazy, but I kind of feel like the Lakers aren’t getting the respect they deserve. I don’t know how that’s even possible when they went 13-4 over the last month (including a grueling 7 game road trip), are 5th in RBDF, 6th in OPFG%, played without their starting center for 32 games and only finished 1 game out of the best record overall. The one worry I do have going forward is the play of PG’s Derek Fisher (12.15 PER) and Jordan Farmar (9.93). You know things are shaky when Shannon Brown (12.95) has the best PER amongst your PG’s.
Utah – These are not your parent’s Jazz, although they still stink on the road (15-26). They backed into the playoffs on a 7-10 slide, are 20th in OPFG% and 14th in RBDF. Carlos Boozer (left knee) still doesn’t look right and C.J. Miles (left index finger) and Memo Okur (right hamstring) are also dinged up. Plus there are suddenly reports of locker room friction beginning to surface. Deron Williams can score on the Lakers whenever he wants to, but Utah’s versatile front line won’t cause LA any problems.
The pick – Lakers in 4
Hornets at Nuggets
Denver – They closed out the last month on a 12-3 tear and are 4th OPFG%. Where this club slips, as always, is on the chemistry and playing smart fronts. Yes Chauncey Billups has helped, but if things start going bad this group could implode in a hurry. And while they are a good defensive team, I don’t see them having anyone that can bother Chris Paul even slightly. They need to run and pound the ball inside as much as possible to take advantage of their superior depth.
New Orleans – They are severely banged up and sputtered to a 8-9 finish. None of Peja Stojakovic (back), Tyson Chandler (right ankle), James Posey (left elbow) or David West (left ankle) have looked right for some time. CP3 wills his team to compete though and the Hornets are 7th in OPFG%. But I really question if they have the depth up front, much less the health, to compete over a seven game series at altitude.
The pick – Nugs in 6
Mavericks at Spurs
San Antonio – No Manu Ginobili (right ankle) and a hobbled Tim Duncan (tendonosis both knees) means it’s Tony Parker time. I think it’s kind of flown under the radar, but Mr. Longoria has been carrying the Spurs over the second half of the season. That said they did only go 10-7 down the stretch, are 15th in RBDF and 9th in OPFG% (bad for them). Watching them pull out the final game of the season though I saw that there was still something left deep inside them. Their savvy, coaching and discipline combined with home court still means they will be a very tough out.
Dallas – Everyone is saying how they are peaking at the right time, but they were a very average 10-6 to close the year. Couple that with a mediocre defense (12th in OPFG%) and Josh Howard (left ankle) being hurt and it’s not actually that rosy a picture. However, SA typically has no answers for Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs are the better rebounding team (8th in RBDF). Dallas must push the tempo at all times to take advantage of their depth. If they can do that and somehow not let Parker kill them this will be an extremely competitive series.
The pick – Spurs in 7
Rockets at Trail Blazers
Portland – They finished the season on a 13-4 kick (two of the losses were in OT too) and are number one in RBDF. Yet their D can be shaky at times (17th in OPFG%) and their most experienced playoff performer amongst regulars is Steve Blake (9 games). That said they do have the horses to matchup with Yao Ming in Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden. Home court is going to be huge for such a young group, but it remains to be seen how guys like Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez will perform under post season pressure for the first time.
Houston – They really blew it on the final night of the season and I wonder if that will linger with them a little. They did play decent over the final month (10-4) and are 4th in RBDF and 5th in OPFG%. The Rockets also have some very solid defenders to throw at the Blazers’ best players. Shane Battier and Ron Artest will harass Roy and Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry will be all over Aldridge. I worry about Houston’s PG situation, their streaky outside shooting and when they “forget” to pump the ball to Yao.
The pick – Blazers in 7
posted by D$ at 8:32 AM
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