1.31.2009

Mid-Season Report

I honestly never thought I’d be the guy who was too busy to keep up with his own blog. But between my wife and dog being diagnosed with cancer like a month apart, the stresses of a new job, the holidays, Phish tickets going on sale (more work than you’d think) and a surprise visit from my Dad I really haven’t. I’m not proud of it, but heck five coaches have been fired and I haven’t even covered any of them.

Anyway, with all the excuses out of the way it’s time for the ‘Mid-Season Report’, albeit a week a late (New Orleans played number 41 on 1/26). I’m changing the format up a little this year for a few reasons. First is the already mentioned time constraints I feel I’m under.

Second is that there are so many quality rookies this season that I’m going to start a new annual feature called the ‘Rookie Review’. I’m going to drop that around the 62 game mark, so if I have any regular readers left they can look forward to it then. As another little side note to the loyal few, there will be no piece covering All-Star snubs this year.

On to the festivities …

(*Teams I had making the playoffs in October.)

EAST

1. *Boston Celtics (39-9) – They lead the league in defensive field goal percentage (OPPFG%) at 42.23% AND rebound differential (REBDIF) at +5.50. But my favorite thing about the C’s was when the Lakers sent their season into a tailspin on 12/25 (they then lost 7 of 9). They’re certainly a title contender, but you have to wonder how confident GM Danny Ainge is when he’s flirting with career cancer/non-winner Stephon Marbury. Everyone knows, including them it seems, that they need another piece to even have a chance of repeating.

2. *Cleveland Cavaliers (36-9) – All hail the King! The Cavs were rolling along looking practically unbeatable until Zydrunas Ilgauskas (left ankle) and Delonte West (right wrist) went down. Cleveland has come back to the pack some since, but they are still 2nd in OPPFG% (42.53%) and 3rd in REBDIF (+3.40). I think they are the cream of the East, and barring a serious injury I’m feeling very good about picking them to make the Finals.

3. *Orlando Magic (35-10) – To say they are thriving under Coach Stan Van Gundy’s post and kick system is an understatement. The Magic lead the league in both 3-pointers made (10.5 per game) and percentage (an astounding 40.0%!). Oh yeah, and they are also 3rd in OPPFG% (42.94%). With Dwight Howard anchoring the middle on both offense and defense alike Orlando is definitely for real. I worry about Jameer Nelson being able to keep his level of play this high, but if he can the Magic are going to give one of the two clubs above them all they can handle and more in the second round.

4. Atlanta Hawks (27-19) – When 100% healthy the boys from the A.T.L. are certainly a playoff squad in the East, but contender they’re not. In fact since Al Horford went down (right knee) they are a paltry 5-6. Their eight player rotation is OK, but they have to play so many minutes that I expect them to fade a little down the stretch. Not enough to miss the playoffs, but probably enough that Coach Mike Woodson loses his job.

5. Miami Heat (25-20) – Call me stubborn, or maybe unrealistic, but I’m still not sold on the Heaters. They play tough defense (5th in OPPFG% at 44.26%), give maximum effort every night and Dwyane Wade is better than I give him credit for. But teams that get by on out-hustling their opposition every night tend to hit the wall sooner or later. Hopefully for Miami fans it happens next year. I still say an injury to Wade and their season is cooked.

6. *Detroit Pistons (25-20) – I guess I shouldn’t be shocked at how these guys dog it anymore, but I am. Are they contenders for the crown? Hell no! But there’s no way on gawd’s green earth they should be behind the Hawks and Heat. You’d think they should be embarrassed, but therein lays the problem. They just don’t care. At this point I’m wondering if President Joe Dumars can really wait until summer before he reshapes this roster. Don’t be surprised if the Pistons package Allen Iverson and/or Rasheed Wallace for big name at the trade deadline.

7. *Philadelphia 76ers (23-22) – They managed to survive former coach Maurice Cheeks’ bumbling of the rotation and Elton Brand’s right shoulder injury and now sit ready to make their move. Here’s what interim Coach Tony DiLeo should be doing; Start Andre Miller, Willie Green, Andre Iguodala, Brand and Samuel Dalembert. Then bring Thaddeus Young off the bench as sixth man for Sammy D, moving EB over to center. Next sub in Lou Williams for Green. The lineup of Miller, Williams, Iguodala, Young & Brand is the Sixers most potent, so you want them out there together as much as possible. Then DiLeo can bring in Marreese Speights (kid needs a nickname badly) to spell Brand. And that’s it. No one else plays. Green comes back in for Miller and Lou Dub has to run the point some (as ugly as that might be). Royal Ivey is the 9th man and Reggie Evans the 10th, but they are to be used in emergency situations only. If Philly does this over the second half of the season the 4th seed is not out of reach for them.

8. Milwaukee Bucks (23-27) – When Michael Redd went down for the rest of the year with a torn ACL and MCL in his left knee, the Bucks playoff hopes probably went with him. I know Andrew Bogut has returned from his back injury, but he looks like he put on some serious pounds while he missed 12 of 15 games. I actually couldn’t believe how fat he got when I saw him play last night. Anyway, I’d have to say the season has gone pretty well for Milwaukee, even if they do miss the post season.

New York Knicks (20-25) – Entertaining says what? Sure they don’t play any defense or rebound at all (28th in both OPPFG% & REBDIF), but that’s the great thing about Coach Mike D’Antoni’s system. As long as you run and shoot 3’s you are bound to win some games. Then you factor in catching other squad’s on off nights, and gentlemen I give you the 2008-09 NY Knicks. I have a very hard time seeing them making the playoffs, but I expect they’ll be on the fringes of the race for 8th the rest of the way.

Chicago Bulls (20-27) – Check out this quote from Owner Jerry Reinsdorf when asked to grade his franchise’s performance thus far; “What's the lowest grade you can give? This has been a disaster. It's embarrassing.” If you are VP John Paxson or Coach Vinny Del Negro you can’t like hearing that. The Bulls roster is way too imbalanced, with repetition everywhere, for them to make the playoffs. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Del Negro was fired before end of the season either. But the fact of the matter is he never should have been hired in the first place. That falls squarely on Paxson. As does trading LaMarcus Aldridge for Tyrus Thomas and NOT trading for Kevin Garnett or Pau Gasol to keep this “core” together. I’m sure you can see where I’m going with this, starting house hunting Pax.

New Jersey Nets (20-27) – Devin Harris, Vince Carter and Brook Lopez have all been pleasant surprises to varying degrees, but the rest of the Nets just aren’t that talented. Coach Lawrence Frank has done a great job here of tailoring his system to the strengths of Harris’ drive and kick game. NJ won’t have enough to make the playoffs though, or even be in the hunt realistically.

*Indiana Pacers (19-28) – I still have confidence in my Pacers making the playoffs. I’m not sure why I like this team so much, but they have won 7 in a row at home. The return of Mike Dunleavy Jr. (right knee) has given their depth, as well as their confidence, a much needed boost. Now if President Larry Bird could parlay some of his many assets into a back-to-the-basket low post scorer Indy would really be in business. If their personnel stays the same though, they MUST start playing with some real effort and intensity on the defensive end.

Charlotte Bobcats (19-28) – Ugh. I can already hear the accolades Coach Larry Brown will get for making this group a middling contender for the 8th seed. I will say that I’m surprised at the production he’s gotten out of both Raja Bell and Boris Diaw since their arrival from Phoenix. But that and 50 cents gets you a bag of chips and a seat in front of the TV come the post season.

*Toronto Raptors (19-29) – Hands down the most disappointing team in the NBA…and it’s not even close. There’s no way they should be this bad. Seriously. I can’t believe I’m typing this, but it’s probably time for GM Bryan Colangelo to start taking some heat. I also think it’s safe to say that former Coach Sam Mitchell wasn’t the problem. Missing Jose Calderon (right hamstring) for 10 of 11 games didn’t do them any favors. Nor did missing Jermaine O’Neal (right knee) for practically the same 10 of 11. Can they make a run for the playoffs? Sure. Will they? I doubt it.

*Washington Wizards (9-37) – The Wiz get the award for the first club to pack it in and quit for good. I don’t know what else to say about them, other than interim Coach Ed Tapscott should play his youngsters more. Guys like Andray Blatche, Nick Young, JaVale McGee, Oleksiy Pecherov and especially Javaris Crittenton should be playing big time minutes the rest of the way. I mean, what do they have to lose?

WEST

1. *Los Angeles Lakers (36-9) – My boys got fully healthy just in the nick of time. The Lakers just started a stretch that will see them play 22 of 31 on the road until 4/1. I suppose it’s possible they could lose their stranglehold on the West, but it’s not very likely. What I’m interested to see is how hard they push for the best record overall through all of February and March. Is it even worth it for that matter? Only time will tell…

2. *San Antonio Spurs (31-14) – The Spurs are like a cagey, veteran prize fighter that knows his way around the ring but whose knockout punch lacks the power it once had. Yeah they are tough and play smart, but they are obviously aging and no longer dominant on D (18th in OPPFG% at 45.61%). Their annual “Rodeo Trip” starts on 2/2 and will see them play 11 of 14 away from SA. I expect them to be a very tough out in the playoffs, but their window is only open a sliver unless GM R.C. Buford adds some more youth and athleticism to their mix.

3. Denver Nuggets (31-16) – The Nugs did very well to tread water while Carmelo Anthony (right hand) missed 10 games. Much of the credit goes to their stingy defense (4th in OPPFG% at 44.22%). Of course Chauncey Billups deserves his share too. If his addition to Denver doesn’t show you the importance of having a “real” PG I don’t know what will. The Nugs ceiling is probably the Conference Finals, but given a poor matchup they could also lose in the first round. Such is life in the West.

4. *New Orleans Hornets (28-15) – I think it’s safe to say that there is a rift between the players and Coach Byron Scott at this point. The Hornets just don’t play as hard as they did last season. It’s not just one guy either, which to me means they are no longer listening to B Scott. Not that it really matters because they aren’t winning the Championship without some more depth up front (ahem…Brandon Bass) and a real live starting SG (ahem…J.R. Smith). I forget, who didn’t like those two guys again???

5. *Portland Trail Blazers (28-17) – I really wish I had something more to say about these guys, but the fact is that I hardly ever get to see them. I mean at all. I pretty much watch the NBA whenever I have time. Meaning it’s not appointment TV for me, and that’s what I have to do to see the Blazers these days. How weird is it that I live in Oregon and can’t see our lone professional sports team play?

6. *Houston Rockets (28-19) – I expected this group to have injury problems, but chemistry problems…that don’t involve Ron Artest…not so much. It seems Tracy McGrady’s act has worn thin on everyone in Houston. From the owner to the GM to the coach to the players; everyone is pretty much like “Whatever T-Mac” these days. That’s a shame too because I still think this unit can be very dangerous (if healthy) come playoff time. Like scare the Lakers good.

7. *Dallas Mavericks (26-19) – The question I have about the Mavs is how desperate will Owner Mark Cuban get? If it isn’t already obvious, they aren’t going anywhere as presently constructed. So does Cuban give the go ahead to President Donnie Nelson to shop the enigmatic Josh Howard? It would have to be a heck of a deal to unload Howard, and even then would it really make them any better? Probably not, so if Dallas does get into the tournament they are one and done. Too bad they can’t undo that disastrous Devin Harris-Jason Kidd trade.

8. *Phoenix Suns (25-19) – I don’t think we’ve seen the best from the Suns yet. We’ve seen flashes, but they really haven’t put it together consistently yet. They have a new coach, new system, new important player (Jason Richardson) to go along with them still learning to play with Shaquille O’Neal. I expect Phoenix to make a run over the second half of the season. How high they climb will depend a lot on if they ratchet up their defense a few levels. But much the Rockets, I wouldn’t want to see the Suns in the first round.

*Utah Jazz (26-21) – Everyone said injuries would decide which squad misses the playoffs in the West, and it’s looking very true. Without Carlos Boozer (left knee) and Andrei Kirilenko (right foot) the Jazz suddenly aren’t very deep up front. Both should be back before it’s all said and done, but Utah will have to go on a serious run (which means winning on the road) to qualify for the post season. Unless of course Dallas completely falls apart or another team has multiple injuries.

Minnesota Timberwolves (16-29) – Maybe Kevin McHale’s true calling all this time was really coaching? If only Owner Glen Taylor would’ve recognized it sooner. After a rough start to the McHale on the sidelines era (0-8), the Wolves rallied to a 10-4 January. Other than Al Jefferson’s continued stellar play the biggest factor has been ending the Randy Foye as a PG experiment. With Foye allowed to gun at will Minne has a decent one-two punch for the first time since Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell left town.

Golden State Warriors (15-32) – Speaking of gunning at will, hello Warriors! I’m aware that Coach Don Nelson is crafty and knows a few things, but the job he’s doing here is a complete joke. It’s a shame too because GS does have some talent. Now would they make the playoffs if they were coached more “traditionally?” Probably not, but at least they would be more competitive. All this lends credence to what many are whispering…that Nellie is trying to get fired since he got his contract extension.

Memphis Grizzlies (11-34) – I was all for the firing of former Coach Mark Iavaroni. I honestly didn’t think he knew what he was doing from day 1 on the job there. That said, he is NOT the problem in Memphis. That would fall to Owner Michael Heisley. This guys makes Donald Sterling (Clippers) look like Donald Trump. Hiring Lionell Hollins as coach? Signing Darius Miles for luxury tax bonus money? Trading Pau Gasol for a bag of peanuts? None of this stuff is about winning. It’s all about the bottom line. That’s why I predict this franchise is the next be sold or moved.

Oklahoma City Thunder (11-36) – Break up the Thunder! They are 6-4 in their last 10 games and actually resemble an NBA team for the first time since they relocated. Why GM Sam Presti is waiting to remove the “interim” tag from before Coach Scott Brooks title is beyond me. What else does Scooter have to do get the job there? Anyway, I love the signing of Nenad Krstic and the play Russell Westbrook. However Kevin Durant has to do much more to prove to me that he’s not just a rich man’s Glenn Robinson.

Los Angeles Clippers (10-36) – Injuries to Baron Davis (tailbone), Zach Randolph (left knee), Marcus Camby (left ankle) and Chris Kaman (left arch) ruined whatever chances the Clips had this season. The one good thing that came of all this hurt is that rookie Eric Gordon has been allowed to blossom. Other than that, I still have to wonder how Mike Dunleavy Sr. is the only guy in the NBA to be a Coach/GM. It boggles the mind.

Sacramento Kings (10-38) – Congratulations Kings, youz win the Silver Medal as the second team to quit and give up on your season. Great professionalism fellas! Anyway, former Coach Reggie Theus was not the problem here. In fact, I think firing him was a HUGE mistake. I have to get off a blast at Kevin Martin here too, who is approaching overrated status at warp speed. There’s two ends of the floor buddy, and if you really want to win and be a leader, you’ll take an interest in both.

Mid-Season Awards

Defensive Player – Dwight Howard (Orlando)

Sixth Man – Jason Terry (Dallas)

Coach – Stan Van Gundy (Orlando)

Rookie – Derrick Rose (Chicago)

MVP – LeBron James (Cleveland)

All NBA

PG – Chris Paul (New Orleans)
SG – Dwyane Wade (Miami)
SF – Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
PF – LeBron James (Cleveland)
C – Dwight Howard (Orlando)

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