5.18.2009

Conference Finals

Well that was more like it. Going 4-0 in the second round bumped my record to a tidy 10-2 for the playoffs. Not great, but respectable enough…as long as I keep on winning of course.

WEST

Nuggets at Lakers

Los Angeles – I guess it took until the second round of the playoffs before people realized that my boys are very inconsistent with their effort. I’d be careful about writing them off just yet though. The Nugs don’t pose near the matchup problems for the Lakers that Houston did. The main difference is PG play where Chauncey Billups and Anthony Carter do form a very solid rotation. However neither is a known as speedster so the penetration that killed LA against Rockets won’t be so prevalent.

Denver – Since these teams prefer to play at the same tempo it’s imperative that the Nugs resist the urge to run up and down with the Lakers. Trading baskets until the 4th quarter is exactly what LA wants to do. Instead the Nugs need to slow it down and make each game a grind it out affair. These clubs are also very similar defensively, so the Nugget big men (Nene Hilario, Kenyon Martin & Chris Andersen) must consistently out hustle and out tough the Laker bigs just like Houston and Boston have done previously.

The pick – Before 2/27/09, where LA got in to Denver at 4 AM and proceeded to shoot 29.8% for the game, the Nuggets hadn’t beaten the Lakers since 4/9/07. Yes Denver is a different group and extremely hot right now, but the Nugs have no one outside of Dahntay Jones that can even remotely check Kobe Bryant. Lakers in 7.

EAST

Magic at Cavaliers

Cleveland – Yes they have been rolling along, but they also haven’t truly been tested yet at all. Orlando plays better defense than Detroit or Atlanta ever thought of, so the Cavs could be in for an immediate intensity adjustment on the offensive end. LeBron James will obviously continue to do his thing, but will his supporting cast keep rolling along as the competition and pressure ratchet up? Cleveland’s biggest advantage should be on the offensive glass so it’s essential that the Cavs crash the boards at all times.

Orlando – The Magic actually cause Cleveland some matchup problems with their mobile bigs (Hedo Turkoglu & Rashard Lewis). The formula for Orlando on offense is simple; pound the ball inside to Dwight Howard and make open threes. On defense I’d suggest that the Magic make someone, anyone, besides James beat them. Double Bron when he crosses half court, on the first dribble, on the catch, whatever. Mix it up, take it to the extreme if need be, but at all costs make him a passer first.

The pick – These teams played three times this season with the home team winning each game (2-1 Magic). When Orlando is hot from deep they will have a chance to win, but the big question with the Magic is how they’ll perform in crunch time. The one question I have about Cleveland is how will they perform when faced with some serious adversity? Cavs in 6.

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