Western Conference Preview
I mentioned that I had many changes in store for you last week, and it's time to unveil them. Brace yourselves, but I'm no longer going to write a weekly column for MMM. I still plan on being a regular contributor, but I can no longer meet the high standards MMM demands every week.
My schedule for MMM is going to look like this...
East & West Previews
Quarter Pole Review
Mid-Season Report
Trade Spectacular
Then going full time at one month to go in the regular season through the end of the playoffs (tentatively).
Before anyone jumps off a bridge, I still plan on writing about the NBA throughout the year. I've started my own blog which I plan to update on a regular basis. Honestly, I have no idea if my output will be more or less then usual, so you'll just have to check in periodically until I develop some type of rhythm. I also want everyone to know that I have no plans to ever stop being a part of the MMM crew. MMM gave me my first break, and for that I'm eternally grateful.
I'm not going to run down the list again, but the Miami Heat making the Finals last season ran my streak to five out of six years in which at least one of my pre-season picks has actually made the Finals. I'm looking to run that streak to three consecutive years this season. Let's do it.
1. Dallas Mavericks
What Can Go Right - They roll through the regular season unscathed improving their defense along the way and win the NBA Championship.
What Can Go Wrong - They let complacency settle in, revert to their old "soft" ways and splinter apart after getting knocked out early in the post season.
Outlook - Dallas has more then a little roster turnover every year, but they always manage to stay a step ahead of the game while reloading. Kudos to President Donnie Nelson for the job he has done and continues to do. Little Nellie has got to be the most overlooked executive in the game, and before you say it's easy with unlimited resources, it really isn't (Yankees).
The Mavs have one of everything and two of the better sellers. You want a defensive five? Check. You want a scoring five? Got that covered too. Small and quick? Can do. Big and powerful? Might be a stretch, but they can pull it off. Shooters, shot blockers, hustlers, defenders, scorers. You name it, they have it.
Obviously I like Dallas to win the West mainly because of their depth. The squads below them aren't exactly thin themselves, but the Mavs can get by for month or two without any one of their players, including Dirk Nowitzki. (Austin Croshere was a very savvy acquisition as Dirk's back up.) Another thing Big D has going for them is continuity. While they did tinker around the edges, Dallas returns seven rotation players from last season.
The biggest hurdle as I see it for the Mavs will be getting up for the likes of Minnesota in February. As long as Dallas can avoid the temptation of taking nights off, I see no reason why they can't finish with the best record overall.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 1st to 3rd in the conference and second round to winning it all in the playoffs.
2. San Antonio Spurs
What Can Go Right - A healthy Tim Duncan returns to form, Tony Parker improves on last season's performance and they win their fourth title in nine years.
What Can Go Wrong - Duncan or Parker misses an extended period of time and/or their collective age catches up with them.
Outlook - Since I've already mentioned good management, it's time to give Spurs' GM R.C. Buford yet another pat on the back. His moves were subtle yet effective as usual. My favorite addition is Matt Bonner. (Don't feel bad if you never heard of him, he's been in Toronto his whole career.) What Bonner gives them is a spot up shooter who works hard. In other words, if Robert Horry goes cold in the post season again, they have Matt to pick up that slack.
Another under the radar pick up was Jacque Vaughn. Stay with me here. SA had major trouble matching up with the Mavs in the playoffs when they played Devin Harris and Jason Terry together. Vaughn isn't good for much, but he can D up the quicker players in the league. These two moves don't seem like much now, but come May and June they will pay dividends.
The Spurs are relatively the same club that was a stupid Manu Ginobili foul away from the Finals last season, except in the middle. It looks like second year big man Fabricio Oberto is going to be their starting center, followed by back up Francisco Elson. These two certainly won't set the word on fire individually or collectively, but they should be able to provide SA with the same level of production that their C's have given them in the past.
If you buy into the Spurs winning a ring every other year, then they are due in 2006-07. I don't think it's that far fetched actually. SA still plays excellent defense (3rd in opponent's field goal percentage (OPPFG%) last season at 43.3%), has great chemistry, enough depth and a solid coach. When you add all those factors together they usually mean championship contender at the very least. I get the feeling this group is very hungry to prove themselves this year, so look out NBA.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 1st to 3rd in the conference and second round to winning it all in the playoffs.
3. Phoenix Suns
What Can Go Right - Amare Stoudemire comes back with a vengeance, Steve Nash averages 30 minutes per game and they take home the crown in June.
What Can Go Wrong - Amare is a shadow of his former self and ruins their team chemistry.
Outlook - On paper the Suns are perfectly stacked to play their style of ball. Marcus Banks and Leandro Barbosa should be able to keep the tempo high while providing Nash with the added rest he needs. If there is a more versatile SF rotation in the league then Shawn Marion and Boris Diaw, I don't see it. Let's not forget about their shooters either. Raja Bell, Jumaine Jones and James Jones will all get plenty of opportunities to knock down open 3's.
I'm beyond thinking Phoenix is just a fad and not for real. They are the best at what they do, and more and more clubs are having problems matching up with them, rather then the other way around. The difference between the Suns truly contending and being really good is their interior play. I know that their approach can mask some weaknesses, but they have nothing behind Amare and Kurt Thomas. I repeat, NOTHING. That's OK in the regular season, but come playoff time you need some beef down low to do the dirty work. Amare and Kurt *must* be healthy for the post season or Phoenix will struggle.
If Stoudemire's status was not such an unknown quantity, I might pick the Suns to have the best record overall and wind up being the eventual NBA Champions. As is, it's just too dicey. I expect Amare to show flashes of what he used to be on and off throughout the year. The flip side to that is I also anticipate that he'll throw up quite a few stinkers and miss at least 10 to 15 games. Which is why I doubt Phoenix will finish with the top record in the West.
All that really matters though is for Amare to be playing at the highest level he is capable of beginning in April and continuing forward. If he can do that, the Suns are going to make the Western Conference playoffs very interesting.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 1st to 3rd in the conference and second round to winning it all in the playoffs.
4. Denver Nuggets
What Can Go Right - Their big men stay healthy, someone finally fills the void at SG and they advance to the second round of the playoffs.
What Can Go Wrong - Their chemistry becomes toxic, no one can make a 3 and they miss the post season entirely.
Outlook - The Nuggets were dead last in 3-point shooting last year at 32.5%. The sad part is that this is not a new problem. Ever since Voshon Lenard went down with a torn left Achilles' tendon in the first game of the 2004-05 season, Denver has been without a consistent threat from behind the arc. The plan was for third year man J.R. Smith to step right in and solve the problem. Well that has been going so well in the pre-season that the Nugs decided to give DerMarr Johnson another chance (his third with them) to prove he's not an NBA player. The other "options" for Denver at the two are Yakhouba Diawara, Linas Kleiza (neither of which are even guards) or Julius Hodge. Ouch!
On the bright side, the Nugs are VERY deep with quality big men. Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby and Nene Hilario are all a little injury prone, but if they are ever healthy at the same time, look out. The embarrassment of riches does not stop there as Denver also has Reggie Evans, Joe Smith, Eduardo Najera and Kleiza on their bench. If the Nugs are to be serious contenders, it's imperative that new Vice President Mark Warkentien trade some of that surplus for a veteran SG (or three) with some playoff experience.
Denver could be an exceptionally good squad if their lack of shooting is addressed. However, the boiling-under-the-surface grudge between coach George Karl and K-Mart has the potential to tear this team apart. (Wasn't Karl supposed to have learned from his time away from the game? Yet here he his again feuding with a star player.) Even though Carmelo Anthony is the leader of this team, he does it more by example. In many ways Kenyon is the voice of the Nugs. Which is exactly why this situation is a ticking time bomb, and why I can envision a scenario where Denver misses out on the post season all together.
Predicted Finish - They are locked into the 4th seed by winning the Northwest Division. They could also win their division and have the eighth best record in the conference, or finish as low as 10th. If they do make the playoffs, the second round is their ceiling.
5. Houston Rockets
What Can Go Right - Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming each play in around 70 games, their PF rotation sorts itself out and they contend for the Conference Championship.
What Can Go Wrong - T-Mac goes down for an extended period of time (again) and their bench doesn't produce consistently.
Outlook - The Rockets had the second best OPPFG% in the league last season (42.9%) and were a decent rebounding team despite being without Yao's services for 25 games. Why were they so bad then? Two reasons. First they had three starters miss significant time. Along with Yao's 25 games, T-Mac missed 35 and Rafer Alston 19. The second reason is their offense was putrid. Houston was dead last in shooting (43.3% from the field), second to last in points per game (90.1) and 27th in 3-point shooting (33.2%). That's not going to get it done no matter good your D is.
There is cause for optimism beyond "if they can stay healthy" though. The Rockets did a nice job upgrading the talent level of their supporting cast in the off season. They signed Bonzi Wells for peanuts (2 years, 5 million) after his *former* agent told him to turn down a 5 year 36 million dollar offer. They also added Kirk Snyder and Shane Battier via trades at the swing positions. These three give Houston more depth, athleticism, toughness and defense then they had last year.
PG depth was also a problem that was exposed last season. Enter Vassillis Spanoulis. I doubt the Greek national will be a star, but I'm pretty certain he'll be solid, heady backup to Rafer. The last guy I need to mention is Steve Novak. He's no more then a one trick pony (think a taller version of Kyle Korver), but from what I've seen so far in the pre-season, the guy can shoot it from deep with anybody. Novak is going to get tons of open looks playing along side of T-Mac and Yao, and knock them down with regularity.
There's no doubt that the Rockets have more offensive firepower then a season ago, but will coach Jeff Van Gundy use it? Don't get me wrong here, Houston is probably a year or two from serious contention, but how much they improve depends on if JVG let's them play. Guys like T-Mac, Rafer, Bonzi, Snyder and Luther Head all excel in the open court. The problem is, they are afraid to make mistakes for fear of losing their minutes. I think this is put up or shut up time for JVG. His squad must show some serious improvement, or he will be gone after the year.
Predicted Finish - They won't have any better then the fourth best record in the West, and will be seeded anywhere from 5th to 7th in the conference. In the playoffs they could be out in the first round or make it to the Conference Finals.
6. Los Angeles Lakers
What Can Go Right - Everyone finds a comfort level in the triangle offense and Kobe Bryant gets enough support to carry them deep into the playoffs.
What Can Go Wrong - They get off to slow start due to all their pre-season injuries and dig themselves a hole they can't get out of.
Outlook - I've downgraded my optimism on the Lakers big time in the last week. I was pretty excited about this team's depth on paper, but they already have six significant injuries, including their coach. Why Phil Jackson waited until 10/3 to have his right hip replaced is beyond me. In the NBA training camp is the biggest block of practice time you get all year, and Phil basically decided to waste the majority of it.
Next is Kobe Bryant and his right knee. Here's another guy that waited too long to have surgery. Rather then take care of the knee that had bothered him all season long right away, he waits until 7/15, putting his recovery time dangerously close to opening night (10/31). I'm sure Kobe won't miss much time, if any, but he also won't be 100% when he's out there for at least a month, if not more.
Then there's Chris Mihm who is still recovering from off season surgery on his right ankle and definitely won't be ready to start the season, and has no timetable for a return beyond that. Couple that with Kwame Brown being out 3 to 4 weeks (back mid to late November) with a bad right shoulder, and the Lakers are minus their starting and backup center. Oh, it doesn't end there. Two out of LA's three off season acquisitions are also hurt. Shammond Williams has a strained abdominal muscle stemming from a stress fracture in his pelvis. How that injury is classified as "minor" I have no clue. Lastly is Vladimir Radmanovic who has strained ligaments between the pinkie and ring fingers on his shooting hand. The extent of his injury is not yet know.
Whew! So why do I have the Lakers so high still? Last year I had them missing the playoffs, and I learned my lesson to not underestimate the power of Phil and Kobe united. Yes, LA is almost sure to get off to a slow start, and in the West that could be fatal. However, if they can get everyone back, healthy and on the same page for the final 40 games, they will be a dangerous club down the stretch.
The Lakers are two deep at every position, posses a little bit of everything and are more versatile then they have been in a while. That's why my main concern with LA was developing the proper chemistry before all these injuries. That process is going to take much longer then expected at this point, and may derail their prospects all together. I had the Lakers as a post season lock and finishing with the fourth best record in the conference originally. Now I can see them in a dog fight with the next five teams for the final three playoff spots.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from the fourth best record in the conference to 10th and second round to out of the playoffs.
7. Los Angeles Clippers
What Can Go Right - They continue to build on last season's success and become legitimate title contenders.
What Can Go Wrong - Their simmering chemistry issues boil over causing them to fall back into the pack.
Outlook - LA's "other" team was the darling of the NBA last year. Mainly because, well, the combination of Clippers and pretty good is something that usually doesn't go together. The Clips will look basically the same with the exception of new additions Tim Thomas and Aaron Williams. As I've mentioned before, continuity is a good thing, but in this case it's also kind of strange. It seems like LA never brings back all their main guys AND coach. Anyway, the Clips should be able to get off to fast start and maintain it barring injuries.
A few things worry me about LA though. The first is that Sam Cassell will be 37 on 11/18 and is no longer in a contract year. The Clips need him to be at the top of his game all the time (like last season) and not just when the mood strikes. That's not even mentioning his decision making and clutch shot taking skills. I know there's a lot of talk about third year PG Shaun Livingston being ready and whatnot, and maybe he will break out, but the reality is that he's no more then a nice back up at the moment.
My next concern is the log jam at the swing positions between Cuttino Mobley, Corey Maggette and Quinton Ross. Maggette is the main culprit who thinks he *has to* start, but believe it or not, Q Ross has also grumbled a bit too. Cat Mobley has already volunteered to come off the pine, but coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. has said he will make the final call. Truth be told, it really shouldn't be a problem with only three of them, but for some reason it seems headed that way. Cat is the shooter, Mags is the slasher and Q is the defender. Many clubs would love to have a rotation like that, minus the ego's of course.
LA is a little thin up front after Elton Brand and Chris Kaman, but they play underrated defense (5th in OPPFG% at 43.5% last year), are a great rebounding squad and posses the versatility to play the game fast or slow to match up with anybody. All that said, there's something I just don't like about the Clips. I can't put my finger on it, but I have bad feeling about them from some reason. I could be way off base and they turn out to be better then a year ago, but I think reaching the second round again is going to be very tough for them.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from the fourth best record in the conference to 10th and second round to out of the playoffs.
8. Utah Jazz
What Can Go Right - Their projected front line of Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur manages to stay healthy together for the first time ever and they return to the playoffs for the first time since 2002-03.
What Can Go Wrong - One of those three gets injured (again) and their SG situation doesn't work itself out.
Outlook - I really like the looks of this Jazz team on paper. I've always maintained that their front court (when healthy) would cause match up problems on a nightly basis regardless of the opposition. Now they have a PG in Deron Williams that can run a team, keep everyone happy and hit open shots from mid-range to out deep. Director Kevin O'Connor also brought in Derek Fisher to back up Deron, which was a highly underrated move this summer. You throw Matt Harpring into the mix and that's six quality players that are all coach Jerry Sloan's type of guys.
After those six though, the Jazz get very thin in a hurry. As I mentioned above, SG is their main weakness. Starter Gordan Giricek ranges from mediocre to injury prone. His back ups are rookie Ronnie Brewer and second year man C.J. Miles. Both have potential, and would give Utah a much needed infusion of athleticism, but neither are ready to regularly contribute on a Jerry Sloan club. The big man depth is no better with Jarron "the bad twin" Collins and Rafael "yes I was really drafted 8th overall" Araujo. Yuck. The one saving grace may come in the form of rookie second round pick Paul Millsap, who has been rebounding the ball like crazy in the pre-season.
The Jazz can rebound (2nd in rebound differential last year at +4.2 rpg), play defense (11th in OPPFG% at 44.9%) and would seem to have good chemistry as well. My main concern is that Sloan (who used 21 different starting lineups last season) won't decide on a rotation until it's too late. I can never figure out why Jerry gets such a free pass on how poorly he handles his rotation choices, but he does. If Sloan can temper his "old school" ways, and the team can avoid injuries, Utah could win the Northwest Division. On the other hand, they could wind up on the outside looking in again if Jerry gets pissed off and starts playing mind games.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from the 4th to 11th in the conference and second round to out of the playoffs.
9. Sacramento Kings
What Can Go Right - Ron Artest has a career year, Mike Bibby & Brad Miller return to form and their consecutive playoff appearance streak reaches nine seasons.
What Can Go Wrong - The transition into new coach Eric Musselman's system doesn't go smoothly and their lack of depth hurts them.
Outlook - The Kings roared into playoffs last year going 9-2 down the stretch and 26-14 after acquiring Artest. Then they promptly fired long time coach Rick Adelman and replaced him with E Muss. I'm not so sure Sacto's problem was Adelman, but the Maloof brothers thought that the team needed a new voice and out he went. I'm a big fan of Mussleman who got a totally raw deal in Golden State. He's a defensive coach that gets the most out of the talent he's given and has a bright future ahead of him.
The Kings are a pretty talented and semi-deep bunch, but it's starting to look like they are a wee bit over the hill to me. Bibby and Miller both took a step backwards last year, as did Shareef Abdur-Rahim. The only veteran besides Artest that didn't drop off was Kenny Thomas. This year they are looking for guys like Kevin Martin, John Salmons and Francisco Garcia to pick up the slack. Let's call that unlikely at best. The rest of the bench is filled with rookies and players well past their prime's.
Sacto is a bit of a wild card in that their top seven or eight could form a quality rotation if all went well, but if Artest, Bibby or Miller doesn't perform up to snuff or gets injured (Bibby is going to miss the first two weeks of the season with an injured right thumb) they are in big trouble. They are a marginal playoff team at best that could sneak in if a few things break their way. However, the Kings just have too many question marks to be considered a lock for the post season, but I expect that their veterans will keep them in the hunt for most of the year.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from the 7th to 11th in the conference and first round to out of the playoffs.
10. New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
What Can Go Right - Chris Paul, Peja Stojakovic and David West combine to form a "Big 3", the role players fill in around the edges and they make the playoffs.
What Can Go Wrong - New additions Peja, Tyson Chandler and Bobby Jackson all revert to their injury prone ways making them a worse club then they were a year ago.
Outlook - The Hornets made the biggest splash in the West this summer with all their wheeling and dealing. I'll be the first to admit that their starting five looks great on paper. You've got the second coming of Isiah Thomas (mark it down people) in CP3 running the point, an athletic role playing defender in Desmond Mason at SG, Peja is their shooter/scorer at SF, then they have an up and coming big man down low at PF in West and throw in a shot blocking C in Chandler for good measure. Not bad at all.
After that, I'm not sold in the least. B Jax is a solid backup PG, but it would be a reach to call anyone else on their bench solid after him. Likewise, I'm not huge on coach Byron Scott. He's a great motivator, but as far as X's & O's go, he leaves a lot to be desired. I also have to wonder how the whole franchise-is-relocating-to-the-Big-Easy-no matter-what deal is going to play out. Will the people in OKC be rooting for them, or Seattle? And how will the residents of NOLA respond to them when it's painfully obvious that everyone involved with team wants to stay in Oklahoma?
NO/OKC was able to sneak up on squads last year, but that won't be the case this season. The Hornets also relied very heavily on their home court advantage at the Ford Center, which I kind of doubt will be the same this time around. When you combine the ever looming injury liabilities, with youth and a lack depth, NO/OKC just has too many question marks to be a solid playoff team. Don't get me wrong here though, their off season acquisitions were good and should drum up some interest, but I think they would need a lot to go right in order to qualify for the post season.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from the 7th to 11th in the conference and first round to out of the playoffs.
11. Seattle SuperSonics
What Can Go Right - They revert to their form of two years ago by striking the proper balance between running & gunning and defense thus returning to the playoffs.
What Can Go Wrong - Their defense remains historically bad, they get nothing out of their big men and the locals stop coming to games altogether.
Outlook - For the second consecutive summer the Sonics did nothing at all. Unless you count re-signing Chris Wilcox and bringing in two draft picks as something. Most of that can be blamed on former owner Howard Schultz, who's dream it was to own his favorite team, until he couldn't make money off it.
Enter Oklahoma City business man Clay Bennett who purchased the team for 350 million dollars. Herein lies biggest problem Seattle faces this season. They are essentially a lame duck franchise. Sure Bennett is saying all the right things about how he wants to keep them there, but c'mon already, who's really buying that? Deep down Clay knows that the voters of Washington are not going to approve a new arena, and he can't wait to relocate once the Hornets are out of his home town.
On the court the Sonics will be same high flyin' entertaining squad with Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis (contract year alert!) leading the way. They also have a very nice PG rotation with Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson and a *potentially* decent PF tandem in Wilcox and Nick Collison. But they have nothing in the middle, and unless Damien Wilkins or French rookie Mickael Gelabale breaks out, no depth at the swing positions either.
Seattle's post season hopes rely on their offense clicking on all cylinders, and more importantly their 3-pointers falling with regularity. Yet even if they manage to flourish offensively, they must play *some* D. The Sonics were second to last in OPPFG% last year at 48.5%, and that plain old will not cut it. This team needs a few of the clubs above them to have injuries, then have another "Cinderella Story" type season of their own, and maybe they'll have a shot to make the playoffs. Overall though, I just don't see the personalities on this squad to over come any serious adversity. Like say playing in a more then half empty Key Arena from mid-January on.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from the 7th to 14th in the conference and first round to out of the playoffs.
12. Golden State Warriors
What Can Go Right - Nellie Ball returns to the Bay and they miraculously make to the playoffs!
What Can Go Wrong - After the initial "Nellie's back!" excitement wears off, they still don't defend or rebound and their post season drought reaches an apocalyptic 13th year.
Outlook - If you hadn't already guessed it, Don Nelson is back coaching the Warriors (his first stint went from '88-89 to '94-95). Whoop-tee-doo! I honestly don't get what the big fuss is all about? It would be one thing if GS was a stout defensive team that needed some creative offense to get over the top, but they're not. The Warriors have been all O and no D for the past two years now. But suddenly the originator of small ball and the point forward is going to get them to play defense? Moves like this, and many others for that matter, make me wonder if Vice President Chris Mullin is back on the sauce.
OK, so Nellie is moving Troy Murphy to C, Mike Dunleavy Jr. to PF, and inserting fourth year Frenchman Mickael Pietrus into the starting lineup. And this is going to make them markedly better how? He'd be better off moving Dunleavy and Murphy to the pine so they had some depth. Then he could keep Pietrus in their for his D, and fill out the rest of the front court with youngsters Ike Diogu and Andris Biedrins. If you're not good enough to make the playoffs, you've got to build for the future I always say.
Anyway, look for Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, Murphy and Dunleavy to all have good to great statistical seasons, but don't expect their numbers to translate into more wins. Nellie is the master of creative lineups, but this group just isn't that talented. A fact that GS fans and owner Chris Cohan are going to have to deal with sooner or later. What's worse is that Mullin's roster is not really suited to Nellie's style either. I think they'd be in the mix if they played in the East, but they don't, so they're not.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 11th to 14th and back to the oh so familiar confines of Secaucus, NJ for the lottery.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
What Can Go Right - Free agent Mike James and rookie Randy Foye inject the team with some much needed quickness & aggression and they become respectable.
What Can Go Wrong - James and Foye don't solve their problems and the downward spiral into the abyss continues.
Outlook - This is another franchise I don't get. The Wolves won 33 games last year and missed the playoffs by eleven games. So what does Vice President Kevin McHale do? He signs a journeyman PG coming off a career best season and calls it a summer. Huh? Did I miss something? Since when is Mike James worth ten wins?
Minne's only other significant addition was Foye, and while I know tons of people are ultra-high on him, his pre-season has been very lackluster. Besides, counting on a rook to turn your fortunes around is never a solid bet. In fact, thus far I've been more impressed with their second round pick Craig Smith, who has the makings of a solid energy guy off the pine.
The Wolves will look to pair James and Ricky Davis in the back court, with Troy Hudson and Foye backing them up. Not a bad rotation, but none of those guys are exactly known for their ability to create shots for teammates. Marko Jaric is slated to move to SF, which could be interesting, but the rest of Minne's front court is a bunch of middling role players who either can't score or don't play hard. In other words, Kevin Garnett will be expected to carry a heavy load...again.
If you are a T-Wolves' fan, you might want to skip this last paragraph. Minne officially reached the tipping point this past off season. By that I mean there will never be a better to time to trade KG again. The longer McHale holds on to him, the less and less he's going to get in return for his superstar. Sixers' fans are well aware of this premise, and I see the Wolves on the same dark path to nowhere that Philly is currently traveling. At some point when you're consistently mediocre in the NBA you've got to cut your losses and start over. Minne is at that point, and the time to act is now, not later.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 11th to 15th and in the lottery.
14. Memphis Grizzlies
What Can Go Right - Rookie SF Rudy Gay is so exciting that he gives people a reason to watch this team play.
What Can Go Wrong - Pau Gasol breaks his left foot at the World Championships and is out until January. Oops...
Outlook - This is a franchise in a complete state of flux right now. It started with Gasol's injury on 9/1. Then a month later to the day owner Michael Heisley announced that he had agreed to sell the team for around 360 million dollars to a group that includes former Dukies Brian Davis and Christian Laettner. Next came word that President Jerry West would retire at the end of the year (which of course he denied). All this adds up to a one mess of a season in my book.
The Griz are built around Gasol, and without him they are suddenly a jump shooting club with no low post presence to speak of. (My apologies to Stromile Swift, Hakim Warrick & Jake Tsakalidis.) Memphis does have some solid players in Damon Stoudamire, Eddie Jones, Chucky Atkins, Mike Miller and Swift, but none of them can carry a squad. The Griz did play great defense last year (6th in OPPFG% at 43.6%), and I'm sure coach Mike Fratello with have them performing at that same high level this season.
But the good news begins and ends there. I have no doubt that The Czar is going to revert back to his old Cleveland days by having his club take the air out of the ball and milk the shot clock on every single possession. I'm sure that will go over well with the Memphis peeps who already stayed away in droves last year (26th in attendance) when they had a playoff team on their hands.
The Griz might be half way decent when Pau comes back, but by that time they'll have dug themselves such a hole that it won't matter.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 11th to 15th and in the lottery.
15. Portland Trail Blazers
What Can Go Right - Some of their many youngsters develop into real live NBA players.
What Can Go Wrong - Zach Randolph, Darius Miles and Jamaal Magloire poison the locker room and the same BS starts all over again.
Outlook - The Blazers' roster has some talent, but trust me, it's just not going to mesh. Second year PG Jarrett Jack and rookie SG Brandon Roy could form a nice back court in the future, but that's two or three years away. Joel Przybilla and Magloire are certainly a solid C rotation if they can get along. Even the Randolph/Raef LaFrentz combo is passable at PF.
Let's be serious though. We all know this team will have quit on coach Nate McMillan by mid-December, if not earlier. I mean Zach was late to the first pre-season game for cripes sake. Then there's Miles, who showed up to camp overweight, and has yet to do anything on the court because of a mysterious right knee injury. I'm starting to think there's a wink-wink agreement between Darius and the club. Like he stays away and doesn't cause problems while they try and find someone that wants him, and in turn he doesn't get put on the suspended list.
Realistically Portland is not going to leave their gangster image behind them until Randolph and Miles are gone. That's why I say this year has to be about playing the young guys, record be damned. Trying to compete and win games with their veterans is short sighted and counter productive in the long run. Jack, Roy, Sergio "Spanish Chocolate" Rodriguez, Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw and LeMarcus Aldridge all MUST get big minutes or the season is pretty much a waste of time. If you are going to stink, you might as well develop your future along the way.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 13th to 15th and the leaders in the Greg Oden sweepstakes.
Final Four - Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, San Antonio
Western Finals - Dallas, San Antonio
NBA Finals - San Antonio, Miami
NBA Champion - San Antonio
My schedule for MMM is going to look like this...
East & West Previews
Quarter Pole Review
Mid-Season Report
Trade Spectacular
Then going full time at one month to go in the regular season through the end of the playoffs (tentatively).
Before anyone jumps off a bridge, I still plan on writing about the NBA throughout the year. I've started my own blog which I plan to update on a regular basis. Honestly, I have no idea if my output will be more or less then usual, so you'll just have to check in periodically until I develop some type of rhythm. I also want everyone to know that I have no plans to ever stop being a part of the MMM crew. MMM gave me my first break, and for that I'm eternally grateful.
I'm not going to run down the list again, but the Miami Heat making the Finals last season ran my streak to five out of six years in which at least one of my pre-season picks has actually made the Finals. I'm looking to run that streak to three consecutive years this season. Let's do it.
1. Dallas Mavericks
What Can Go Right - They roll through the regular season unscathed improving their defense along the way and win the NBA Championship.
What Can Go Wrong - They let complacency settle in, revert to their old "soft" ways and splinter apart after getting knocked out early in the post season.
Outlook - Dallas has more then a little roster turnover every year, but they always manage to stay a step ahead of the game while reloading. Kudos to President Donnie Nelson for the job he has done and continues to do. Little Nellie has got to be the most overlooked executive in the game, and before you say it's easy with unlimited resources, it really isn't (Yankees).
The Mavs have one of everything and two of the better sellers. You want a defensive five? Check. You want a scoring five? Got that covered too. Small and quick? Can do. Big and powerful? Might be a stretch, but they can pull it off. Shooters, shot blockers, hustlers, defenders, scorers. You name it, they have it.
Obviously I like Dallas to win the West mainly because of their depth. The squads below them aren't exactly thin themselves, but the Mavs can get by for month or two without any one of their players, including Dirk Nowitzki. (Austin Croshere was a very savvy acquisition as Dirk's back up.) Another thing Big D has going for them is continuity. While they did tinker around the edges, Dallas returns seven rotation players from last season.
The biggest hurdle as I see it for the Mavs will be getting up for the likes of Minnesota in February. As long as Dallas can avoid the temptation of taking nights off, I see no reason why they can't finish with the best record overall.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 1st to 3rd in the conference and second round to winning it all in the playoffs.
2. San Antonio Spurs
What Can Go Right - A healthy Tim Duncan returns to form, Tony Parker improves on last season's performance and they win their fourth title in nine years.
What Can Go Wrong - Duncan or Parker misses an extended period of time and/or their collective age catches up with them.
Outlook - Since I've already mentioned good management, it's time to give Spurs' GM R.C. Buford yet another pat on the back. His moves were subtle yet effective as usual. My favorite addition is Matt Bonner. (Don't feel bad if you never heard of him, he's been in Toronto his whole career.) What Bonner gives them is a spot up shooter who works hard. In other words, if Robert Horry goes cold in the post season again, they have Matt to pick up that slack.
Another under the radar pick up was Jacque Vaughn. Stay with me here. SA had major trouble matching up with the Mavs in the playoffs when they played Devin Harris and Jason Terry together. Vaughn isn't good for much, but he can D up the quicker players in the league. These two moves don't seem like much now, but come May and June they will pay dividends.
The Spurs are relatively the same club that was a stupid Manu Ginobili foul away from the Finals last season, except in the middle. It looks like second year big man Fabricio Oberto is going to be their starting center, followed by back up Francisco Elson. These two certainly won't set the word on fire individually or collectively, but they should be able to provide SA with the same level of production that their C's have given them in the past.
If you buy into the Spurs winning a ring every other year, then they are due in 2006-07. I don't think it's that far fetched actually. SA still plays excellent defense (3rd in opponent's field goal percentage (OPPFG%) last season at 43.3%), has great chemistry, enough depth and a solid coach. When you add all those factors together they usually mean championship contender at the very least. I get the feeling this group is very hungry to prove themselves this year, so look out NBA.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 1st to 3rd in the conference and second round to winning it all in the playoffs.
3. Phoenix Suns
What Can Go Right - Amare Stoudemire comes back with a vengeance, Steve Nash averages 30 minutes per game and they take home the crown in June.
What Can Go Wrong - Amare is a shadow of his former self and ruins their team chemistry.
Outlook - On paper the Suns are perfectly stacked to play their style of ball. Marcus Banks and Leandro Barbosa should be able to keep the tempo high while providing Nash with the added rest he needs. If there is a more versatile SF rotation in the league then Shawn Marion and Boris Diaw, I don't see it. Let's not forget about their shooters either. Raja Bell, Jumaine Jones and James Jones will all get plenty of opportunities to knock down open 3's.
I'm beyond thinking Phoenix is just a fad and not for real. They are the best at what they do, and more and more clubs are having problems matching up with them, rather then the other way around. The difference between the Suns truly contending and being really good is their interior play. I know that their approach can mask some weaknesses, but they have nothing behind Amare and Kurt Thomas. I repeat, NOTHING. That's OK in the regular season, but come playoff time you need some beef down low to do the dirty work. Amare and Kurt *must* be healthy for the post season or Phoenix will struggle.
If Stoudemire's status was not such an unknown quantity, I might pick the Suns to have the best record overall and wind up being the eventual NBA Champions. As is, it's just too dicey. I expect Amare to show flashes of what he used to be on and off throughout the year. The flip side to that is I also anticipate that he'll throw up quite a few stinkers and miss at least 10 to 15 games. Which is why I doubt Phoenix will finish with the top record in the West.
All that really matters though is for Amare to be playing at the highest level he is capable of beginning in April and continuing forward. If he can do that, the Suns are going to make the Western Conference playoffs very interesting.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 1st to 3rd in the conference and second round to winning it all in the playoffs.
4. Denver Nuggets
What Can Go Right - Their big men stay healthy, someone finally fills the void at SG and they advance to the second round of the playoffs.
What Can Go Wrong - Their chemistry becomes toxic, no one can make a 3 and they miss the post season entirely.
Outlook - The Nuggets were dead last in 3-point shooting last year at 32.5%. The sad part is that this is not a new problem. Ever since Voshon Lenard went down with a torn left Achilles' tendon in the first game of the 2004-05 season, Denver has been without a consistent threat from behind the arc. The plan was for third year man J.R. Smith to step right in and solve the problem. Well that has been going so well in the pre-season that the Nugs decided to give DerMarr Johnson another chance (his third with them) to prove he's not an NBA player. The other "options" for Denver at the two are Yakhouba Diawara, Linas Kleiza (neither of which are even guards) or Julius Hodge. Ouch!
On the bright side, the Nugs are VERY deep with quality big men. Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby and Nene Hilario are all a little injury prone, but if they are ever healthy at the same time, look out. The embarrassment of riches does not stop there as Denver also has Reggie Evans, Joe Smith, Eduardo Najera and Kleiza on their bench. If the Nugs are to be serious contenders, it's imperative that new Vice President Mark Warkentien trade some of that surplus for a veteran SG (or three) with some playoff experience.
Denver could be an exceptionally good squad if their lack of shooting is addressed. However, the boiling-under-the-surface grudge between coach George Karl and K-Mart has the potential to tear this team apart. (Wasn't Karl supposed to have learned from his time away from the game? Yet here he his again feuding with a star player.) Even though Carmelo Anthony is the leader of this team, he does it more by example. In many ways Kenyon is the voice of the Nugs. Which is exactly why this situation is a ticking time bomb, and why I can envision a scenario where Denver misses out on the post season all together.
Predicted Finish - They are locked into the 4th seed by winning the Northwest Division. They could also win their division and have the eighth best record in the conference, or finish as low as 10th. If they do make the playoffs, the second round is their ceiling.
5. Houston Rockets
What Can Go Right - Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming each play in around 70 games, their PF rotation sorts itself out and they contend for the Conference Championship.
What Can Go Wrong - T-Mac goes down for an extended period of time (again) and their bench doesn't produce consistently.
Outlook - The Rockets had the second best OPPFG% in the league last season (42.9%) and were a decent rebounding team despite being without Yao's services for 25 games. Why were they so bad then? Two reasons. First they had three starters miss significant time. Along with Yao's 25 games, T-Mac missed 35 and Rafer Alston 19. The second reason is their offense was putrid. Houston was dead last in shooting (43.3% from the field), second to last in points per game (90.1) and 27th in 3-point shooting (33.2%). That's not going to get it done no matter good your D is.
There is cause for optimism beyond "if they can stay healthy" though. The Rockets did a nice job upgrading the talent level of their supporting cast in the off season. They signed Bonzi Wells for peanuts (2 years, 5 million) after his *former* agent told him to turn down a 5 year 36 million dollar offer. They also added Kirk Snyder and Shane Battier via trades at the swing positions. These three give Houston more depth, athleticism, toughness and defense then they had last year.
PG depth was also a problem that was exposed last season. Enter Vassillis Spanoulis. I doubt the Greek national will be a star, but I'm pretty certain he'll be solid, heady backup to Rafer. The last guy I need to mention is Steve Novak. He's no more then a one trick pony (think a taller version of Kyle Korver), but from what I've seen so far in the pre-season, the guy can shoot it from deep with anybody. Novak is going to get tons of open looks playing along side of T-Mac and Yao, and knock them down with regularity.
There's no doubt that the Rockets have more offensive firepower then a season ago, but will coach Jeff Van Gundy use it? Don't get me wrong here, Houston is probably a year or two from serious contention, but how much they improve depends on if JVG let's them play. Guys like T-Mac, Rafer, Bonzi, Snyder and Luther Head all excel in the open court. The problem is, they are afraid to make mistakes for fear of losing their minutes. I think this is put up or shut up time for JVG. His squad must show some serious improvement, or he will be gone after the year.
Predicted Finish - They won't have any better then the fourth best record in the West, and will be seeded anywhere from 5th to 7th in the conference. In the playoffs they could be out in the first round or make it to the Conference Finals.
6. Los Angeles Lakers
What Can Go Right - Everyone finds a comfort level in the triangle offense and Kobe Bryant gets enough support to carry them deep into the playoffs.
What Can Go Wrong - They get off to slow start due to all their pre-season injuries and dig themselves a hole they can't get out of.
Outlook - I've downgraded my optimism on the Lakers big time in the last week. I was pretty excited about this team's depth on paper, but they already have six significant injuries, including their coach. Why Phil Jackson waited until 10/3 to have his right hip replaced is beyond me. In the NBA training camp is the biggest block of practice time you get all year, and Phil basically decided to waste the majority of it.
Next is Kobe Bryant and his right knee. Here's another guy that waited too long to have surgery. Rather then take care of the knee that had bothered him all season long right away, he waits until 7/15, putting his recovery time dangerously close to opening night (10/31). I'm sure Kobe won't miss much time, if any, but he also won't be 100% when he's out there for at least a month, if not more.
Then there's Chris Mihm who is still recovering from off season surgery on his right ankle and definitely won't be ready to start the season, and has no timetable for a return beyond that. Couple that with Kwame Brown being out 3 to 4 weeks (back mid to late November) with a bad right shoulder, and the Lakers are minus their starting and backup center. Oh, it doesn't end there. Two out of LA's three off season acquisitions are also hurt. Shammond Williams has a strained abdominal muscle stemming from a stress fracture in his pelvis. How that injury is classified as "minor" I have no clue. Lastly is Vladimir Radmanovic who has strained ligaments between the pinkie and ring fingers on his shooting hand. The extent of his injury is not yet know.
Whew! So why do I have the Lakers so high still? Last year I had them missing the playoffs, and I learned my lesson to not underestimate the power of Phil and Kobe united. Yes, LA is almost sure to get off to a slow start, and in the West that could be fatal. However, if they can get everyone back, healthy and on the same page for the final 40 games, they will be a dangerous club down the stretch.
The Lakers are two deep at every position, posses a little bit of everything and are more versatile then they have been in a while. That's why my main concern with LA was developing the proper chemistry before all these injuries. That process is going to take much longer then expected at this point, and may derail their prospects all together. I had the Lakers as a post season lock and finishing with the fourth best record in the conference originally. Now I can see them in a dog fight with the next five teams for the final three playoff spots.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from the fourth best record in the conference to 10th and second round to out of the playoffs.
7. Los Angeles Clippers
What Can Go Right - They continue to build on last season's success and become legitimate title contenders.
What Can Go Wrong - Their simmering chemistry issues boil over causing them to fall back into the pack.
Outlook - LA's "other" team was the darling of the NBA last year. Mainly because, well, the combination of Clippers and pretty good is something that usually doesn't go together. The Clips will look basically the same with the exception of new additions Tim Thomas and Aaron Williams. As I've mentioned before, continuity is a good thing, but in this case it's also kind of strange. It seems like LA never brings back all their main guys AND coach. Anyway, the Clips should be able to get off to fast start and maintain it barring injuries.
A few things worry me about LA though. The first is that Sam Cassell will be 37 on 11/18 and is no longer in a contract year. The Clips need him to be at the top of his game all the time (like last season) and not just when the mood strikes. That's not even mentioning his decision making and clutch shot taking skills. I know there's a lot of talk about third year PG Shaun Livingston being ready and whatnot, and maybe he will break out, but the reality is that he's no more then a nice back up at the moment.
My next concern is the log jam at the swing positions between Cuttino Mobley, Corey Maggette and Quinton Ross. Maggette is the main culprit who thinks he *has to* start, but believe it or not, Q Ross has also grumbled a bit too. Cat Mobley has already volunteered to come off the pine, but coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. has said he will make the final call. Truth be told, it really shouldn't be a problem with only three of them, but for some reason it seems headed that way. Cat is the shooter, Mags is the slasher and Q is the defender. Many clubs would love to have a rotation like that, minus the ego's of course.
LA is a little thin up front after Elton Brand and Chris Kaman, but they play underrated defense (5th in OPPFG% at 43.5% last year), are a great rebounding squad and posses the versatility to play the game fast or slow to match up with anybody. All that said, there's something I just don't like about the Clips. I can't put my finger on it, but I have bad feeling about them from some reason. I could be way off base and they turn out to be better then a year ago, but I think reaching the second round again is going to be very tough for them.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from the fourth best record in the conference to 10th and second round to out of the playoffs.
8. Utah Jazz
What Can Go Right - Their projected front line of Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur manages to stay healthy together for the first time ever and they return to the playoffs for the first time since 2002-03.
What Can Go Wrong - One of those three gets injured (again) and their SG situation doesn't work itself out.
Outlook - I really like the looks of this Jazz team on paper. I've always maintained that their front court (when healthy) would cause match up problems on a nightly basis regardless of the opposition. Now they have a PG in Deron Williams that can run a team, keep everyone happy and hit open shots from mid-range to out deep. Director Kevin O'Connor also brought in Derek Fisher to back up Deron, which was a highly underrated move this summer. You throw Matt Harpring into the mix and that's six quality players that are all coach Jerry Sloan's type of guys.
After those six though, the Jazz get very thin in a hurry. As I mentioned above, SG is their main weakness. Starter Gordan Giricek ranges from mediocre to injury prone. His back ups are rookie Ronnie Brewer and second year man C.J. Miles. Both have potential, and would give Utah a much needed infusion of athleticism, but neither are ready to regularly contribute on a Jerry Sloan club. The big man depth is no better with Jarron "the bad twin" Collins and Rafael "yes I was really drafted 8th overall" Araujo. Yuck. The one saving grace may come in the form of rookie second round pick Paul Millsap, who has been rebounding the ball like crazy in the pre-season.
The Jazz can rebound (2nd in rebound differential last year at +4.2 rpg), play defense (11th in OPPFG% at 44.9%) and would seem to have good chemistry as well. My main concern is that Sloan (who used 21 different starting lineups last season) won't decide on a rotation until it's too late. I can never figure out why Jerry gets such a free pass on how poorly he handles his rotation choices, but he does. If Sloan can temper his "old school" ways, and the team can avoid injuries, Utah could win the Northwest Division. On the other hand, they could wind up on the outside looking in again if Jerry gets pissed off and starts playing mind games.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from the 4th to 11th in the conference and second round to out of the playoffs.
9. Sacramento Kings
What Can Go Right - Ron Artest has a career year, Mike Bibby & Brad Miller return to form and their consecutive playoff appearance streak reaches nine seasons.
What Can Go Wrong - The transition into new coach Eric Musselman's system doesn't go smoothly and their lack of depth hurts them.
Outlook - The Kings roared into playoffs last year going 9-2 down the stretch and 26-14 after acquiring Artest. Then they promptly fired long time coach Rick Adelman and replaced him with E Muss. I'm not so sure Sacto's problem was Adelman, but the Maloof brothers thought that the team needed a new voice and out he went. I'm a big fan of Mussleman who got a totally raw deal in Golden State. He's a defensive coach that gets the most out of the talent he's given and has a bright future ahead of him.
The Kings are a pretty talented and semi-deep bunch, but it's starting to look like they are a wee bit over the hill to me. Bibby and Miller both took a step backwards last year, as did Shareef Abdur-Rahim. The only veteran besides Artest that didn't drop off was Kenny Thomas. This year they are looking for guys like Kevin Martin, John Salmons and Francisco Garcia to pick up the slack. Let's call that unlikely at best. The rest of the bench is filled with rookies and players well past their prime's.
Sacto is a bit of a wild card in that their top seven or eight could form a quality rotation if all went well, but if Artest, Bibby or Miller doesn't perform up to snuff or gets injured (Bibby is going to miss the first two weeks of the season with an injured right thumb) they are in big trouble. They are a marginal playoff team at best that could sneak in if a few things break their way. However, the Kings just have too many question marks to be considered a lock for the post season, but I expect that their veterans will keep them in the hunt for most of the year.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from the 7th to 11th in the conference and first round to out of the playoffs.
10. New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
What Can Go Right - Chris Paul, Peja Stojakovic and David West combine to form a "Big 3", the role players fill in around the edges and they make the playoffs.
What Can Go Wrong - New additions Peja, Tyson Chandler and Bobby Jackson all revert to their injury prone ways making them a worse club then they were a year ago.
Outlook - The Hornets made the biggest splash in the West this summer with all their wheeling and dealing. I'll be the first to admit that their starting five looks great on paper. You've got the second coming of Isiah Thomas (mark it down people) in CP3 running the point, an athletic role playing defender in Desmond Mason at SG, Peja is their shooter/scorer at SF, then they have an up and coming big man down low at PF in West and throw in a shot blocking C in Chandler for good measure. Not bad at all.
After that, I'm not sold in the least. B Jax is a solid backup PG, but it would be a reach to call anyone else on their bench solid after him. Likewise, I'm not huge on coach Byron Scott. He's a great motivator, but as far as X's & O's go, he leaves a lot to be desired. I also have to wonder how the whole franchise-is-relocating-to-the-Big-Easy-no matter-what deal is going to play out. Will the people in OKC be rooting for them, or Seattle? And how will the residents of NOLA respond to them when it's painfully obvious that everyone involved with team wants to stay in Oklahoma?
NO/OKC was able to sneak up on squads last year, but that won't be the case this season. The Hornets also relied very heavily on their home court advantage at the Ford Center, which I kind of doubt will be the same this time around. When you combine the ever looming injury liabilities, with youth and a lack depth, NO/OKC just has too many question marks to be a solid playoff team. Don't get me wrong here though, their off season acquisitions were good and should drum up some interest, but I think they would need a lot to go right in order to qualify for the post season.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from the 7th to 11th in the conference and first round to out of the playoffs.
11. Seattle SuperSonics
What Can Go Right - They revert to their form of two years ago by striking the proper balance between running & gunning and defense thus returning to the playoffs.
What Can Go Wrong - Their defense remains historically bad, they get nothing out of their big men and the locals stop coming to games altogether.
Outlook - For the second consecutive summer the Sonics did nothing at all. Unless you count re-signing Chris Wilcox and bringing in two draft picks as something. Most of that can be blamed on former owner Howard Schultz, who's dream it was to own his favorite team, until he couldn't make money off it.
Enter Oklahoma City business man Clay Bennett who purchased the team for 350 million dollars. Herein lies biggest problem Seattle faces this season. They are essentially a lame duck franchise. Sure Bennett is saying all the right things about how he wants to keep them there, but c'mon already, who's really buying that? Deep down Clay knows that the voters of Washington are not going to approve a new arena, and he can't wait to relocate once the Hornets are out of his home town.
On the court the Sonics will be same high flyin' entertaining squad with Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis (contract year alert!) leading the way. They also have a very nice PG rotation with Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson and a *potentially* decent PF tandem in Wilcox and Nick Collison. But they have nothing in the middle, and unless Damien Wilkins or French rookie Mickael Gelabale breaks out, no depth at the swing positions either.
Seattle's post season hopes rely on their offense clicking on all cylinders, and more importantly their 3-pointers falling with regularity. Yet even if they manage to flourish offensively, they must play *some* D. The Sonics were second to last in OPPFG% last year at 48.5%, and that plain old will not cut it. This team needs a few of the clubs above them to have injuries, then have another "Cinderella Story" type season of their own, and maybe they'll have a shot to make the playoffs. Overall though, I just don't see the personalities on this squad to over come any serious adversity. Like say playing in a more then half empty Key Arena from mid-January on.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from the 7th to 14th in the conference and first round to out of the playoffs.
12. Golden State Warriors
What Can Go Right - Nellie Ball returns to the Bay and they miraculously make to the playoffs!
What Can Go Wrong - After the initial "Nellie's back!" excitement wears off, they still don't defend or rebound and their post season drought reaches an apocalyptic 13th year.
Outlook - If you hadn't already guessed it, Don Nelson is back coaching the Warriors (his first stint went from '88-89 to '94-95). Whoop-tee-doo! I honestly don't get what the big fuss is all about? It would be one thing if GS was a stout defensive team that needed some creative offense to get over the top, but they're not. The Warriors have been all O and no D for the past two years now. But suddenly the originator of small ball and the point forward is going to get them to play defense? Moves like this, and many others for that matter, make me wonder if Vice President Chris Mullin is back on the sauce.
OK, so Nellie is moving Troy Murphy to C, Mike Dunleavy Jr. to PF, and inserting fourth year Frenchman Mickael Pietrus into the starting lineup. And this is going to make them markedly better how? He'd be better off moving Dunleavy and Murphy to the pine so they had some depth. Then he could keep Pietrus in their for his D, and fill out the rest of the front court with youngsters Ike Diogu and Andris Biedrins. If you're not good enough to make the playoffs, you've got to build for the future I always say.
Anyway, look for Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, Murphy and Dunleavy to all have good to great statistical seasons, but don't expect their numbers to translate into more wins. Nellie is the master of creative lineups, but this group just isn't that talented. A fact that GS fans and owner Chris Cohan are going to have to deal with sooner or later. What's worse is that Mullin's roster is not really suited to Nellie's style either. I think they'd be in the mix if they played in the East, but they don't, so they're not.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 11th to 14th and back to the oh so familiar confines of Secaucus, NJ for the lottery.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
What Can Go Right - Free agent Mike James and rookie Randy Foye inject the team with some much needed quickness & aggression and they become respectable.
What Can Go Wrong - James and Foye don't solve their problems and the downward spiral into the abyss continues.
Outlook - This is another franchise I don't get. The Wolves won 33 games last year and missed the playoffs by eleven games. So what does Vice President Kevin McHale do? He signs a journeyman PG coming off a career best season and calls it a summer. Huh? Did I miss something? Since when is Mike James worth ten wins?
Minne's only other significant addition was Foye, and while I know tons of people are ultra-high on him, his pre-season has been very lackluster. Besides, counting on a rook to turn your fortunes around is never a solid bet. In fact, thus far I've been more impressed with their second round pick Craig Smith, who has the makings of a solid energy guy off the pine.
The Wolves will look to pair James and Ricky Davis in the back court, with Troy Hudson and Foye backing them up. Not a bad rotation, but none of those guys are exactly known for their ability to create shots for teammates. Marko Jaric is slated to move to SF, which could be interesting, but the rest of Minne's front court is a bunch of middling role players who either can't score or don't play hard. In other words, Kevin Garnett will be expected to carry a heavy load...again.
If you are a T-Wolves' fan, you might want to skip this last paragraph. Minne officially reached the tipping point this past off season. By that I mean there will never be a better to time to trade KG again. The longer McHale holds on to him, the less and less he's going to get in return for his superstar. Sixers' fans are well aware of this premise, and I see the Wolves on the same dark path to nowhere that Philly is currently traveling. At some point when you're consistently mediocre in the NBA you've got to cut your losses and start over. Minne is at that point, and the time to act is now, not later.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 11th to 15th and in the lottery.
14. Memphis Grizzlies
What Can Go Right - Rookie SF Rudy Gay is so exciting that he gives people a reason to watch this team play.
What Can Go Wrong - Pau Gasol breaks his left foot at the World Championships and is out until January. Oops...
Outlook - This is a franchise in a complete state of flux right now. It started with Gasol's injury on 9/1. Then a month later to the day owner Michael Heisley announced that he had agreed to sell the team for around 360 million dollars to a group that includes former Dukies Brian Davis and Christian Laettner. Next came word that President Jerry West would retire at the end of the year (which of course he denied). All this adds up to a one mess of a season in my book.
The Griz are built around Gasol, and without him they are suddenly a jump shooting club with no low post presence to speak of. (My apologies to Stromile Swift, Hakim Warrick & Jake Tsakalidis.) Memphis does have some solid players in Damon Stoudamire, Eddie Jones, Chucky Atkins, Mike Miller and Swift, but none of them can carry a squad. The Griz did play great defense last year (6th in OPPFG% at 43.6%), and I'm sure coach Mike Fratello with have them performing at that same high level this season.
But the good news begins and ends there. I have no doubt that The Czar is going to revert back to his old Cleveland days by having his club take the air out of the ball and milk the shot clock on every single possession. I'm sure that will go over well with the Memphis peeps who already stayed away in droves last year (26th in attendance) when they had a playoff team on their hands.
The Griz might be half way decent when Pau comes back, but by that time they'll have dug themselves such a hole that it won't matter.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 11th to 15th and in the lottery.
15. Portland Trail Blazers
What Can Go Right - Some of their many youngsters develop into real live NBA players.
What Can Go Wrong - Zach Randolph, Darius Miles and Jamaal Magloire poison the locker room and the same BS starts all over again.
Outlook - The Blazers' roster has some talent, but trust me, it's just not going to mesh. Second year PG Jarrett Jack and rookie SG Brandon Roy could form a nice back court in the future, but that's two or three years away. Joel Przybilla and Magloire are certainly a solid C rotation if they can get along. Even the Randolph/Raef LaFrentz combo is passable at PF.
Let's be serious though. We all know this team will have quit on coach Nate McMillan by mid-December, if not earlier. I mean Zach was late to the first pre-season game for cripes sake. Then there's Miles, who showed up to camp overweight, and has yet to do anything on the court because of a mysterious right knee injury. I'm starting to think there's a wink-wink agreement between Darius and the club. Like he stays away and doesn't cause problems while they try and find someone that wants him, and in turn he doesn't get put on the suspended list.
Realistically Portland is not going to leave their gangster image behind them until Randolph and Miles are gone. That's why I say this year has to be about playing the young guys, record be damned. Trying to compete and win games with their veterans is short sighted and counter productive in the long run. Jack, Roy, Sergio "Spanish Chocolate" Rodriguez, Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw and LeMarcus Aldridge all MUST get big minutes or the season is pretty much a waste of time. If you are going to stink, you might as well develop your future along the way.
Predicted Finish - Anywhere from 13th to 15th and the leaders in the Greg Oden sweepstakes.
Final Four - Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, San Antonio
Western Finals - Dallas, San Antonio
NBA Finals - San Antonio, Miami
NBA Champion - San Antonio
posted by D$ at 8:31 PM
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