Meat of the Schedule

This time around there weren’t many surprises when Manager Jürgen Klinsmann named his roster for the most critical point acquiring portion of World Cup qualifying…outside of the omission of Landon Donovan that is. While Donovan is back playing in MLS after a nearly four month sabbatical his form has been very inconsistent. Given that Klinsmann loves to prove somewhat unnecessary points I wasn’t all that surprised by the move but you can’t convince me that there is a better option at right attacking midfielder than Landon for the United States Men’s National Team (USMNT). Also left off without injury was former Captain Carlos Bocanegra who at 34 can pretty much consider his USMNT days over (barring injuries). Timmy Chandler (knee), Brek Shea (calf), Maurice Edu (sports hernia), Herculez Gomez (knee), Danny Williams (ankle), Steve Cherundolo (knee) and Corey Ashe (groin) will all have to wait until September for their chance.

I’m going to bypass talking about the utter disaster that was 2-4 loss to Belgium on 5/29 in Cleveland (lame fans there) and move right on to the 4-3 triumph over Germany on 6/2 in Washington D.C. The USMNT finally showed some offensive cohesion with Jozy Altidore scoring his first USMNT goal since 11/15/11 and Clint Dempsey tallying two more (the fourth was a horrendous own goal by the German keeper). We did give up three goals in the second half to Germany’s B+ team but that was still a marked improvement from the Belgium match. Matt Besler replaced Clarence Goodson in the middle and Brad Evans replaced the pitifully awful Geoff Cameron at right back. I know Cameron plays in the EPL but he is just way too loose with his passes and decision making to play international fútbol. Evans on the other hand was solid and workmanlike not taking any risks and always making the right play in only his ninth cap.

Next up is Jamaica on Friday (6:30 PM Pacific on beIN Sport) and you can expect the pitch at National Stadium in Kingston (AKA “The Office”) to be the same bumpy sandy mess it always is. Believe it or not I actually watched Mexico play in Jamaica on 6/4 and the Reggae Boyz didn’t look half bad as El Tri struggled to string passes together on the playing surface much like the USMNT will. While Mexico did end up winning 1-0 Jamaica had plenty of good chances. As a Portland Timbers fan I have watched Jamaican keeper Donovan Ricketts play all season and let me tell you it’s going to take some quality stuff to beat him as he is currently playing at a ridiculously high level.

Luckily for the USMNT Jozy, Clint, Fabian Johnson, Michael Bradley and Jermaine Jones have been playing like real live European soccer players lately. I was stunned against Die Mannschaft how crisply and creatively this group moved and kept the ball. I was literally giddy and ended up drinking way too much on a Sunday afternoon because of it. I expect Graham Zusi to start alongside those five and continue to keep Donovan’s spot warm. Johnson tweaked his hamstring against Germany and if he can’t go look for Brad Davis to replace him in the lineup.

Defense is where we have really been struggling, and I’m being VERY kind there. I continue to think that Tim Howard isn’t the same keeper he once was meaning he can no longer be counted to make superhuman saves that bail out mistakes. The central defenders in front of him will be Omar Gonzalez and Besler (the fastest guy on the team BTW) with Evans on the right and DaMarcus Beasley on the left. I would hope that Jürgen keeps this group together for all three qualifiers so they can develop some chemistry but knowing Herr Klinsmann’s ways I won’t hold my breath. That said outside of Goodson there is no other defender that even remotely deserves to play. I’m officially done with Cameron and Edgar Castillo and Michael Parkhurst aren’t ready for prime time as evidenced by midfielders Beasley and Evans having to play D.

The key against the Reggae Boyz is to remain patient and keep plugging away no matter how frustrating the conditions are. Being that they are in last place in the group with 2 points Jamaica will certainly play desperate but the USMNT has to weather that early storm and use their fresher legs to their advantage over the course of 90 minutes. Then there’s also the little fact that we OWE them from the last time we played in the Semifinal Round on 9/7/12 and lost to the Reggae Boyz (1-2) for the first time ever. Given the circumstances I’d say anything less than one point is a failure in Kingston.

After playing three of our first four matches on the road the schedule finally turns in our favor with Panama (7 PM Pacific on ESPN) at CenturyLink Field in Seattle on 6/11 and then the return matches begin with Honduras (6 PM Pacific on ESPN) at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy, UT on 6/18. As is always the case in World Cup qualifying you must win your home matches so six points here is a must.

SPI Rank
11. Mexico
28. United States
37. Costa Rica
42. Honduras
45. Panama
53. Jamaica

Finals

I went 1-1 on my Conference Finals picks with Memphis reminding me of a valuable lesson I’m sure we all have learned before: Pick with your head and not your gut.  A 10-4 record in the playoffs is nothing to brag about so instead I’ll point to having picked at least one Finals team in 7 of the past 8 Octobers.

When it comes to statistics these two sides are virtually identical across the board.  I had to dig deep to come up with three meaningful categories where there was a sizable difference.  The first is turnovers per game where Miami was 6^th best (13.3) and San Antonio 17^th (14.1).  The next is fouls per game where the Spurs were 1^st overall (17.4) and the Heat 8^th (18.7).  But the most intriguing number I found is almost counterintuitive; SA played at the 6^th fastest place league wide (96.4 possessions per game) and Miami was only 23^rd (93.0).  Who would have thought that?

As for the matchups there is intrigue across the board.  The Spurs have a top end LeBron James defender in Kawhi Leonard but after Kawhi the likes of Boris Diaw and Tracy McGrady (yep that T-Mac) have no chance to check the King.  With Dwyane Wade (right knee) obviously not himself Danny Green will be able to do a better than average job containing him.  Heck even Manu Ginobili will likely be able to stay in front of Wade right now.  Chris Bosh (right ankle) was downright awful against Indiana averaging 11 points and 4.3 rebounds on 37.7% shooting.  Things won’t get any easier for Bosh with Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter on him this series.

For the Heat the key matchup is Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole on Tony Parker.  Both Mario and Norris are decent defenders but a healthy Parker is handful for anyone.  I actually think Cole stands a better chance than Chalmers but for Norris to stay on the floor he’ll have to continue to shoot the three at the 57.7% clip he has been in the playoffs.  I’m sure Wade will be the primary Ginobili defender but it’s possible that Shane Battier gets a chance too if Manu heats up.  I don’t think Bosh can guard Duncan on the low block so that leaves the undersized Udonis Haslem, the frenetic Chris “Birdman” Andersen and the offensively inept Joel Anthony.  Splitter can’t be forgotten on offense either as he has “x-factor” written all over him.

This brings me to my next point; while SA is the deeper squad talent wise and can match up with any small-ball formation Miami trots out there, Spurs Coach Gregg Popovich must resists the temptation and stay BIG.  Likewise SA needs to play slower and follow the Pacers model with Duncan, Splitter, Leonard and Green playing the parts of David West, Roy Hibbert, Paul George and Lance Stephenson.  For the Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra needs to emphasize playing the “pace and space” style that served them so well during the regular season along with taking the ball to the rim consistently and not settling for too many jump shots.

The Spurs will have had NINE full days of rest by tip-off compared to only two for Miami.  I know Indiana just physically beat up the Heat over the course of seven games but SA is bound to get off to a slow start in Game 1 on the road (gambling alert).  This Final is a virtual toss-up and chock full of interesting story lines all over the place so the TV ratings should be stout.  While it certainly has the all the ingredients to go the distance something tells me (is that my gut again?) not to pick against the best player of his generation...in his prime...with revenge on his mind...AND home court advantage.  Miami in 6.