Western Conference Preview

There’s no doubt about it, the West is still the best. Of the seven teams that I think have a legitimate shot to win it all, five of them reside in the Western Conference. That’s right East fans, I did imply that two of your clubs are actually in the mix for once.

Not only did I have San Antonio making the Finals last season (running my streak of at least one pre-season prediction making the Finals to three straight years and six out of the last seven), but I also had the Spurs winning it all. Picking the NBA Champion in the pre-season hadn’t happened for since the ’01-02 campaign (Lakers), and my broken arm is almost healed from patting myself on the back.

Without further ado…

1. San Antonio Spurs – Something tells me these boys are going to be focused right from the start of the season. I know that’s a little out of the norm for SA, but I get the feeling – no matter how many cliché quotes they regurgitate – that the Spurs want to repeat BADLY. As far as their legacy goes, it’s really the only thing that’s missing. Of concern though is their collective age, mileage and lack of overall athleticism. Regardless, you know this squad will be in the thick of it come playoff time.

Eyes On – Ime Udoka. He’s a defensive stopper on the wings and can make an open 3. In other words, he’s Bruce Bowen’s replacement. GM R.C. Buford strikes again!

Now or Never – Francisco Elson. After losing his starting job to Fabricio Oberto during last year’s playoffs, it’s on Cisco to improve his consistency if he wants a new contract.

2. Houston Rockets – No team was more active in the off-season as new GM Daryl Morey wasted no time putting his stamp on the Rockets. This Houston group has so much depth that they remind me of those Portland clubs of the late 90’s. New coach Rick Adelman was brought in to fix their offense while not letting their D fall apart. So if Adelman is able to take advantage of all the talent at his disposal, while keeping everyone happy with their minutes, the Rockets are going to be extremely dangerous.

Eyes On – Luis Scola. The Argentine rookie does all the little things down low and knows how to play the “team” game. Scola finally gives Yao Ming a competent sidekick up front.

Now or Never – Bonzi Wells. After his agent shafted him, Bonzi showed up grumpy & out of shape and never did anything in Houston last year. This is his last chance for a new contract.

3. Phoenix Suns (4th best record) – I wrestled big time with where to place the Suns. On one hand I hated their summer moves. Then on the other it’s hard not to see them having similar success barring injuries. So what if they are paper thin up front and still don’t have a decent backup PG? Coach Mike D’Antoni will just roll the ball out to Steve Nash and only go seven deep, but Phoenix will still be the greatest show on earth. This squad will be judged on their post season, and I’m not optimistic about their chances.

Eyes On – Shawn Marion. After feeling underappreciated for years “Trix” finally asked to be traded. While I doubt he gets dealt, Marion might be the type to pout on the court.

Now or Never – Boris Diaw. His PER dropped from 17.31 to 13.02 after he showed up to camp bloated last season. Diaw must do something to prove he’s not a contract year wonder.

4. Utah Jazz (5th best record) – On paper I love the look of this crew, but they have too many questions for me to rate them higher. Will Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer and Memo Okur all produce like they did last season? Will sixth man Matt Harpring’s right knee hold up? Will Andrei Kirilenko ever stop whining and become the AK-47 of yore? If the answers to those queries produce more yes’s than no’s, then the Jazz will be serious contenders for the crown.

Eyes On – Ronnie Brewer. If he improved his jump shot in the off-season Brewer should fill Utah’s SG vacancy and inject their starting lineup with some much needed athleticism.

Now or Never – Gordan Giricek. He normally likes to play hard about once every ten days or so. I wonder if that changes in his contract year?

5. Dallas Mavericks (3rd best record) – I don’t think the regular season is going to mean all that much to the Mavs to this year. I’m sure coach Avery Johnson would disagree, but the players know all that matters is how they perform come playoff time. Dallas is still an elite team, but since they were ousted in the first round after a 67 win regular season I see them coasting a lot more this year. The core of the club is basically the same, so I expect them to play with a major chip on their collective shoulder come the post season.

Eyes On – Devin Harris. He’s super quick, a good play maker and an elite defender. Harris is really just a consistent outside shot away from being a star.

Now or Never – Brandon Bass. Did absolutely nothing in two seasons with the Hornets, but the Mavs have no one else behind Dirk Nowitzki, so Mr. Bass better carpe diem.

6. Los Angeles Lakers – I had been feeling pretty good about my boy’s chances until owner Jerry Buss decided to open his yap and say he “would certainly listen” to trade offers for Kobe Bryant. It’s plain to see that former GM Jerry West was responsible for keeping this dysfunctional ship afloat all those years. Anyway, the Lakers are actually a very deep and versatile group that might be able to win the East. LA could still surprise a lot of people this season if coach Phil Jackson can get them to play any defense at all.

Eyes On – Andrew Bynum. There’s no physical tool that this 20 year old center doesn’t possess. The question is all upstairs with him. As in, how bad does he want to be great?

Now or Never – Kwame Brown. I’m not sure he’s even capable of your typical NBA contract year push, but if he is, buyers beware this summer.

7. Denver Nuggets – If you saw Allen Iverson chucking up bad shots in last year’s playoffs, you know why I refer to this squad as “Team tick, tick, tick…” I doubt there’s ever been a more combustible mix of talent on the same team in league history, including the Jail Gangstas. I have no clue how coach George Karl is going to control this bunch? On the court the Nugs must defend and share the ball to reach their potential, but who really cares about any of that? Let’s just get to their first media fueled brouhaha already!

Eyes On – Kenyon Martin. After having microfracture surgery on both his knees K-Mart should just be happy he’s able to play again. Riiight. He’s never been the type to be happy in a limited role.

Now or Never – J.R. Smith. The consummate knucklehead starts off his contract year with an incident at a night club during training camp. Is it possible to be washed up at the age of 22?

8. New Orleans Hornets – Having a permanent home (for a little while anyway) should make their regular season less of a grind than it has been the past two years. NO’s starting five is as good as any in the Association, but their depth, especially up front, is suspect. Which is why they can’t afford to have injuries again if they expect to make the playoffs. The addition of Morris Peterson fills their SG void. And Tyson Chandler’s offensive is improving. But make no mistake, the Hornets go as Chris Paul goes.

Eyes On – Hilton Armstrong. He has looked like a different player in the pre-season and should flourish in his role as the first big man off the bench.

Now or Never – Peja Stojakovic. I’m not one to make light of back problems, but it seems to me that after Peja signed that 5 year $64 million deal he lost his desire to play.

9. Memphis Grizzlies – The Southwest in the toughest division in basketball, and the Griz are the biggest sleeper in the NBA. Memphis is surprisingly deep and has a good mix of experience and youth. Other than being able to rebound, their biggest question is rookie coach Marc Iavaroni. The early word on him was that he liked to run, but the latest I hear is that he’s defense first. The Griz have the horses to run, but defenders? Not so much. Iavaroni’s main task will be to find a middle ground between the two.

Eyes On – Kyle Lowry. He’s tough, can defend and is quicker than greased lightning. He only played in ten games as a rookie before breaking his left wrist but posted a PER of 18.49.

Now or Never – Darko Milicic. He’s been given the starting spot he’s always wanted so he shouldn’t pout anymore. But I’m just not sure he’s ever going to want it badly enough to excel.

10. Portland Trail Blazers – While losing Greg Oden for the season to microfracture surgery (right knee) is a demoralizing blow, there’s just something about this club that I like. Their youth and inexperience will certainly work against them on some nights, but the Blazers have a good mix of players with well defined roles. Not to mention that Nate McMillan is a solid coach and these guys seem to genuinely like each other. I expect it’ll probably be ugly early on, but by the end of the year nobody will want to play this team.

Eyes On – LaMarcus Aldridge. He was overshadowed by Brandon Roy as a rookie, but LaMarc can definitely play. Aldridge has the potential to be great if he bulks up.

Now or Never – Channing Frye. His PER dropped from 18.12 to 10.50 in his sophomore campaign. Frye has a golden opportunity to redeem himself as Portland’s first big man off the pine.

11. Golden State Warriors – I have no doubt that Jason Richardson is the most underappreciated player in the league. Baron Davis gets most of the credit, but J-Rich was really the key to their Cinderella run last season. The Warriors will still play at a breakneck pace and be fun to watch, but minus Richardson they aren’t near as dangerous. Of concern also is that coach Don Nelson renegotiated the playoff incentives out of his contract over the summer. Nellie likes his money, so I take that as an ominous sign.

Eyes On – Kelenna Azubuike. Made quite a splash last year after being signed from the D-League. Now Azubuike steps into J-Rich’s rather large shoes at starting SG.

Now or Never – Mickael Pietrus. He’s been extremely inconsistent throughout his four seasons. And even though it’s his contract year I’d be shocked if Pietrus plays any better.

12. Sacramento Kings – Losing Mike Bibby for six to ten weeks to a torn left thumb ligament is real bad news for Sacto. What makes it even worse is that the plan is to start third year PG Orien Greene in Bibby’s place. Things don’t get better from there though. Brad Miller’s back is already aching and they have a completely unknown entity in rookie coach Reggie Theus. The Kings are largely an aging unathletic bunch whose best days are behind them. It’s time for President Geoff Petrie to break out the dynamite.

Eyes On – Kevin Martin. He was rewarded with a five year $55 million deal after having one good year. While KM2 is certainly good, I’m not sure greatness is in his future.

Now or Never – Ron Artest. Since he’s likely to be on his best behavior and opt of his contract after the season, it will be interesting to see what the “Tru Warier” has left in his tank.

13. Los Angeles Clippers – With Elton Brand out until at least February recovering from a torn left Achilles tendon, the Clips season is really over before it begins. Making matters worse is that Brand, Sam Cassell, Corey Maggette, Shaun Livingston and Ruben Patterson can all be free agents at the end of the year. So they’ll most likely get off to a poor start without EB. Then at least three of those guys (Sam, Corey & Ruben) will start playing for contracts. The end result being a long ugly season for LA’s other team.

Eyes On – Chris Kaman. He slimmed down over the summer so he would be able to keep up with the quicker centers in the league. The pre-season results have been encouraging.

Now or Never – Tim Thomas. With Brand out TT will be counted on to play big minutes and produce consistently as their starting PF. Stop laughing, I’m serious.

14. Seattle SuperSonics – Now that owner Clay Bennett has finally put his relocation to Oklahoma City plan into effect, you can expect a very contentious season away from the court in the Emerald City. On the court new coach P.J. Carlesimo has his work cut out for him. Carlesimo’s main objective is to get this club to play defense. The problem there is that he has only two quality defenders on his entire roster. While the Supes do have some depth, I don’t like their mix of players at all. Very tough returning gig for P.J.

Eyes On – Kevin Durant. He’ll probably have some breathtaking performances, but the rookie’s no franchise savior as of yet. Defense and strength are major concerns for KD.

Now or Never – Robert Swift. He enters his contract year coming off right ACL surgery. With Kurt Thomas as his only competition for playing time, Swift better be able show something.

15. Minnesota Timberwolves – On one hand it’s a good thing that the rebuilding process has finally started in the Twin Cities, but cripes is their roster ever a mess. You’ve got over-the-hill veterans like Antoine Walker, Theo Ratliff, Michael Doleac and Greg Buckner mixed with a plethora of inexperienced talent. So does coach Randy Wittman play the young guys or try to eek out wins with the older cast? Either way the Wolves will stink, yet somehow VP Kevin McHale will still manage to be employed.

Eyes On – Al Jefferson. I’m interested to see how he fares as a go-to-guy in the West. If Big Al doesn’t sign a contract extension before 10/31, all the more incentive to dominate.

Now or Never – Sebastian Telfair. He’s the only “true” PG Minny has AND he’s entering a contract year. If Bassy doesn’t show anything this season I’m not sure he’s even a starter in Europe.

Final Four – San Antonio, Dallas, Lakers, Houston

Western Finals – Dallas, Lakers

NBA Finals – Detroit, Dallas

NBA Champion – Dallas

Eastern Conference Preview

It’s time to dust the cobwebs off the keyboard and re-focus our attention on the NBA. I’ll kick it off with the JV as always. Even though five 20 points per game scorers migrated from West to East, I still think the overall quality of the Eastern Conference top to bottom is nowhere near that of the West.

After deviating from the norm last year, my pre-season previews are back to their original format (sorry Doug).

On to business…

1. Chicago Bulls – This team is very deep and versatile up front and has another season of experience under their belt. It’s a given that coach Scott Skiles will get his club to play hard every night, and their defense and rebounding should continue to be stellar. Unfortunately the problem for the Bulls is same as ever, who is going to score in the low post when they aren’t hitting their jumpers? It’s probably a little much to count on rookie center Aaron Gray, so the burden may fall to SF Luol Deng.

Eyes On – Tyrus Thomas. Looks like he’ll be handed the starting PF spot. If he has developed even one go to move on offense, look out.

Now or Never – Ben Gordon. As he enters his contract year Ben must prove he is not a defensive liability in the playoffs, or else it’ll be sayonara time.

2. Detroit Pistons – After his disastrous flame out in the Eastern Conference Finals last year, Rasheed Wallace lost 25 pounds and made amends with coach Flip Saunders over the summer. That should help, but not as much as infusing the rotation with some youth and athleticism will. The Pistons have relied on their starters far too much over the past four seasons, so developing any kind of a consistent bench should keep their main guys fresh for another post season run.

Eyes On – Amir Johnson. He signed for $11 million over three years after averaging 18.9 points, 9.7 rebounds & 3.14 blocks while shooting 62.3% in the D-League. The 20 year old is 6’11 and a super-freak athletically.

Now or Never – Jarvis Hayes. This injury prone “shooter” (career 40.2% from the field) signed a one year deal to give Detroit some scoring off the pine. I’ll believe it when I see it.

3. Orlando Magic – The combination of Rashard Lewis and J.J. Redick gives Orlando the kind of outside shooting they lacked last year. Additionally, the Magic players should enjoy playing for underrated new coach Stan Van Gundy. However, losing big man Tony Battie for the season to a torn left rotator cuff is blow to their front court depth. While the signing of Adonal Foyle should help offset that some, I expect Orlando to make a trade (Hedo Turkoglu?) that addresses that deficiency before too long.

Eyes On – Dwight Howard. If the rumors are true that he has developed a mid-range jumper that utilizes the glass, I fear for the rest of the league.

Now or Never – Jameer Nelson. He enters his contract year coming off a season that saw his PER drop from 19.55 to 13.92. With a new coach, system & teammates a lot will be expected of Jameer.

4. Boston Celtics – I don’t see Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett having any trouble developing chemistry for two reasons. First, they are all veterans that haven’t won anything. Second, their respective talents mesh so well together. KG will work the post, PP in between and Ray-Ray deep outside. The Celtics problems start with coach Doc Rivers and end with their bench. I expect Doc will be exposed big time this season, and while Boston does have some decent depth on the wings, they are terribly thin up front and at the point.

Eyes On – Rajon Rondo. An elite athlete and defender that knows how to run a team. The sky’s the limit for him if he can hit an open 15-18 foot jumper.

Now or Never – Tony Allen. Entering his contract year coming off a serious left knee injury, it’s time for Tony to prove he’s a consistent rotation player in the NBA.

5. Toronto Raptors – This squad has depth all over the place, well defined individual roles and actually likes playing together. The Raptors have arguably the best PG duo in the league and the addition of SF Jason Kapono gives them a consistent 3-point threat. The reason they aren’t higher up is because Chris Bosh’s left knee is already giving him grief and Jorge Garbajosa’s left leg supposedly isn’t healed properly yet. Toronto also won’t sneak up on anyone this year, so it remains to be seen how they’ll adjust to that.

Eyes On – Andrea Bargnani. Is he really starting center material? I worry about how the nightly banging down low will affect the other aspects of his game, especially his confidence.

Now or Never – Carlos Delfino. He’s never come close to anything resembling consistent production. If he can’t do it on the Euro-Raps, it’s back to Europe for real.

6. Cleveland Cavaliers – The Cavs are tough to predict right now because of the on going Brazilian standoff between GM Danny Ferry and big man Anderson Varejao. Make no mistake; Varejao was very instrumental in Cleveland’s success last season. Without him they just aren’t as good, there’s really no way around it. For the Cavs to take the next step in their evolution Daniel Gibson must continue his development, Larry Hughes has to stay healthy and LeBron James’ jumper better be as good as advertised.

Eyes On – Devin Brown. After playing well for the Hornets as a mid-year pick up last season, Cleveland needs Brown to provide their second unit with some scoring punch.

Now or Never – Cedric Simmons. It’s never a good thing when you get traded after your rookie year for a guy that’s about to retire. Will get his chance if Varejao doesn’t report.

7. Miami Heat – If they played in the West they’d be on the outside looking in. As is, I expect the Heat to get off to a slow start once again and rally down the stretch. Shaquille O’Neal’s left leg is already aching, and coach/President Pat Riley has to be careful not to rush Dwyane Wade back too soon. Without D Wade Miami is just an old unathletic team without any depth. In fact, looking at their roster it’s hard for me to come up with anything positive to say about the Heat other than they have Wade and Shaq.

Eyes On – Alexander Johnson. Unless he has off the court problems, I have no idea why Memphis released him. His addition could make Udonis Haslem trade bait.

Now or Never – Dorell Wright. He should get plenty of minutes in his contract year almost by default since the rest of their swing men are so gawd awful.

8. New Jersey Nets – In theory Richard Jefferson and Nenad Krstic being healthy should make the Nets better than they were last year. However I see two factors that will balance NJ’s final ledger. One, Vince Cater is no longer playing for a new contract. And two, I doubt that Jason Kidd will produce at the same level he did last season. This is more or less the same Nets crew that has been getting over on a weak East all these years. So with the conference becoming tougher up top, NJ could be in trouble.

Eyes On – Josh Boone. Has a knack for being in the right place at the right time on offense and can also rebound and defend. His development is crucial to the Nets success.

Now or Never – Antoine Wright. This alleged shooter (career 41.9% from the field & 27% from 3) has yet to show anything. The 4th year team option on his rookie contract probably won’t be picked up. ‘Nuff said.

9. Milwaukee Bucks – There’s no doubt that when healthy this club will be able to score with anybody. The question is can they get enough stops on defense for it to matter? That job falls to coach Larry Krystkowiak who will have a full training to camp to install his defensive system. Even if Krystkowiak gets them to defend, that’s only half the battle as the Bucks also can’t rebound worth a lick. Regardless, Milwaukee should be a very entertaining team to watch this season.

Eyes On – Bobby Simmons. A forgotten man after he missed all of last year with right foot problems. His presence gives the Bucks a guy who thinks defense first.

Now or Never – Charlie Villanueva. When you get traded after your rookie year, then your replacement is drafted after your sophomore campaign (with the same skill set taboot), something isn’t right.

10. Charlotte Bobcats – Longtime readers know how much I’ve always liked this squad, and this year is no exception. The Cats have a nice balance of offense and defense throughout their rotation, but experience and depth up front will likely be their undoing. Losing Sean May (microfracture surgery right knee) and Adam Morrison (torn ACL left knee) for the season hurts, and rookie coach Sam Vincent is an unknown commodity, yet I still see them hanging around the playoff chase all year.

Eyes On – Jason Richardson. As their unquestioned go-to-guy Charlotte will look to J-Rich to score in every clutch situation. But will he be able to deliver on a nightly basis?

Now or Never – Primoz Brezec. In his contract year, and especially with their plethora of front court injuries, the Cats need the big Slovenian to find his form of two seasons ago.

11. New York Knicks – Once again the Knicks look to have a very deep and talented roster on paper. But as is the norm under this regime, the player’s skills don’t mesh well at all. That said, the Knicks should have one of the more dominant front lines in the league (scoring & rebounding wise) and no problem putting up points. Their issues as I see them will be defense, sharing the ball and guys accepting their roles (i.e. minutes). Honestly, they’ll be fun to watch in a train wreck sort of way.

Eyes On – Zach Randolph. Should be an All-Star in the East, but how will he handle NYC away from the court? Bright lights, big city + Z-Bo = a recipe for disaster.

Now or Never – Isiah Thomas. After being found guilty of sexual harassment coach/President Zeke has got to be feeling the pressure to finally make the playoffs.

12. Washington Wizards – Obviously scoring has never been a problem for this group. Unfortunately stopping the opposition has, and quite frankly President Ernie Grunfeld did nothing to address that in the summer. Losing Etan Thomas for the season (heart surgery) hurts their already porous rebounding as well. Then there’s the impending free agency of Gilbert Arenas AND Antawn Jamison. If both of them are playing for numbers this year, things are going to get ugly in DC.

Eyes On – Andray Blatche. If this 21 year old big man can even remotely find some consistency to his game it will make a major difference for the Wiz.

Now or Never – Coach Eddie Jordan. At 83-81 in the regular season and 2-8 in the playoffs over the last two years, the defense he keeps talking about better materialize soon or he’ll be out of a job.

13. Atlanta Hawks – With the never ending tug of war for ownership of the franchise still ongoing, the Hawks once again did practically nothing in the off season. While Director Billy Knight was largely applauded for his draft, I don’t see how two rookies are suddenly going to make Atlanta a playoff contender. What the Hawks need to do is package a few of their youngsters for an established star who compliments Joe Johnson’s game. Until then all Atlanta fans can do is watch people develop.

Eyes On – Josh Smith. He has finished the last two years very strong when the Hawks were already out of contention. So the question is can J-Smoove put together a complete season when the games actually matter?

Now or Never – Marvin Williams. After two completely lackluster years the #2 pick from 2005 better do something soon because his replacement was just drafted #3 overall.

14. Indiana Pacers – For a club that finished seven games out of the playoffs in the weaker conference last season, Indy did little over the summer besides naming Jim O’Brien as their new coach. I don’t know what to tell you Pacer fans? Standing pat in the NBA is never a good thing, ESPECIALLY when you were bad the previous year. Who knows? I guess it’s possible that Troy Murphy flourishes in the new system while Jermaine O’Neal stays healthy and Danny Granger emerges. Just not likely.

Eyes On – Travis Diener. A steady PG that knows how to run a team and is a deadly 3-point shooter. He is a perfect fit for Obie’s preferred style of play.

Now or Never – Larry Bird. In the four seasons since “The Legend” was named President Indy has gone from 61 wins to 44 to 41 to 35. Great player. Good coach. Terrible personnel man.

15. Philadelphia 76ers – Don’t buy into their 17-9 finishing kick from last season people. This is not a good squad by any stretch of the imagination. The Sixers are a collection of unproven young players and middling veterans, with the one notable exception being Andre Iguodala. It’s not all bad though as Philly has some intriguing young players and the team takes pride in the effort they give on a nightly basis. Take heart Sixer fans, sometimes to become good in the NBA you have to be real bad first.

Eyes On – Louis Williams. A lightning quick undersized SG that should see plenty of playing time as the season wears on.

Now or Never – Rodney Carney. When you’re an uber athlete that can’t create your own shot, or beat out Willie Green for minutes, those are some serious red flags.

Final Four – Chicago, Boston, Orlando, Detroit

Eastern Finals – Chicago, Detroit