Eastern Conference Preview
It’s time to dust the cobwebs off the keyboard and re-focus our attention on the NBA. I’ll kick it off with the JV as always. Even though five 20 points per game scorers migrated from West to East, I still think the overall quality of the Eastern Conference top to bottom is nowhere near that of the West.
After deviating from the norm last year, my pre-season previews are back to their original format (sorry Doug).
On to business…
1. Chicago Bulls – This team is very deep and versatile up front and has another season of experience under their belt. It’s a given that coach Scott Skiles will get his club to play hard every night, and their defense and rebounding should continue to be stellar. Unfortunately the problem for the Bulls is same as ever, who is going to score in the low post when they aren’t hitting their jumpers? It’s probably a little much to count on rookie center Aaron Gray, so the burden may fall to SF Luol Deng.
Eyes On – Tyrus Thomas. Looks like he’ll be handed the starting PF spot. If he has developed even one go to move on offense, look out.
Now or Never – Ben Gordon. As he enters his contract year Ben must prove he is not a defensive liability in the playoffs, or else it’ll be sayonara time.
2. Detroit Pistons – After his disastrous flame out in the Eastern Conference Finals last year, Rasheed Wallace lost 25 pounds and made amends with coach Flip Saunders over the summer. That should help, but not as much as infusing the rotation with some youth and athleticism will. The Pistons have relied on their starters far too much over the past four seasons, so developing any kind of a consistent bench should keep their main guys fresh for another post season run.
Eyes On – Amir Johnson. He signed for $11 million over three years after averaging 18.9 points, 9.7 rebounds & 3.14 blocks while shooting 62.3% in the D-League. The 20 year old is 6’11 and a super-freak athletically.
Now or Never – Jarvis Hayes. This injury prone “shooter” (career 40.2% from the field) signed a one year deal to give Detroit some scoring off the pine. I’ll believe it when I see it.
3. Orlando Magic – The combination of Rashard Lewis and J.J. Redick gives Orlando the kind of outside shooting they lacked last year. Additionally, the Magic players should enjoy playing for underrated new coach Stan Van Gundy. However, losing big man Tony Battie for the season to a torn left rotator cuff is blow to their front court depth. While the signing of Adonal Foyle should help offset that some, I expect Orlando to make a trade (Hedo Turkoglu?) that addresses that deficiency before too long.
Eyes On – Dwight Howard. If the rumors are true that he has developed a mid-range jumper that utilizes the glass, I fear for the rest of the league.
Now or Never – Jameer Nelson. He enters his contract year coming off a season that saw his PER drop from 19.55 to 13.92. With a new coach, system & teammates a lot will be expected of Jameer.
4. Boston Celtics – I don’t see Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett having any trouble developing chemistry for two reasons. First, they are all veterans that haven’t won anything. Second, their respective talents mesh so well together. KG will work the post, PP in between and Ray-Ray deep outside. The Celtics problems start with coach Doc Rivers and end with their bench. I expect Doc will be exposed big time this season, and while Boston does have some decent depth on the wings, they are terribly thin up front and at the point.
Eyes On – Rajon Rondo. An elite athlete and defender that knows how to run a team. The sky’s the limit for him if he can hit an open 15-18 foot jumper.
Now or Never – Tony Allen. Entering his contract year coming off a serious left knee injury, it’s time for Tony to prove he’s a consistent rotation player in the NBA.
5. Toronto Raptors – This squad has depth all over the place, well defined individual roles and actually likes playing together. The Raptors have arguably the best PG duo in the league and the addition of SF Jason Kapono gives them a consistent 3-point threat. The reason they aren’t higher up is because Chris Bosh’s left knee is already giving him grief and Jorge Garbajosa’s left leg supposedly isn’t healed properly yet. Toronto also won’t sneak up on anyone this year, so it remains to be seen how they’ll adjust to that.
Eyes On – Andrea Bargnani. Is he really starting center material? I worry about how the nightly banging down low will affect the other aspects of his game, especially his confidence.
Now or Never – Carlos Delfino. He’s never come close to anything resembling consistent production. If he can’t do it on the Euro-Raps, it’s back to Europe for real.
6. Cleveland Cavaliers – The Cavs are tough to predict right now because of the on going Brazilian standoff between GM Danny Ferry and big man Anderson Varejao. Make no mistake; Varejao was very instrumental in Cleveland’s success last season. Without him they just aren’t as good, there’s really no way around it. For the Cavs to take the next step in their evolution Daniel Gibson must continue his development, Larry Hughes has to stay healthy and LeBron James’ jumper better be as good as advertised.
Eyes On – Devin Brown. After playing well for the Hornets as a mid-year pick up last season, Cleveland needs Brown to provide their second unit with some scoring punch.
Now or Never – Cedric Simmons. It’s never a good thing when you get traded after your rookie year for a guy that’s about to retire. Will get his chance if Varejao doesn’t report.
7. Miami Heat – If they played in the West they’d be on the outside looking in. As is, I expect the Heat to get off to a slow start once again and rally down the stretch. Shaquille O’Neal’s left leg is already aching, and coach/President Pat Riley has to be careful not to rush Dwyane Wade back too soon. Without D Wade Miami is just an old unathletic team without any depth. In fact, looking at their roster it’s hard for me to come up with anything positive to say about the Heat other than they have Wade and Shaq.
Eyes On – Alexander Johnson. Unless he has off the court problems, I have no idea why Memphis released him. His addition could make Udonis Haslem trade bait.
Now or Never – Dorell Wright. He should get plenty of minutes in his contract year almost by default since the rest of their swing men are so gawd awful.
8. New Jersey Nets – In theory Richard Jefferson and Nenad Krstic being healthy should make the Nets better than they were last year. However I see two factors that will balance NJ’s final ledger. One, Vince Cater is no longer playing for a new contract. And two, I doubt that Jason Kidd will produce at the same level he did last season. This is more or less the same Nets crew that has been getting over on a weak East all these years. So with the conference becoming tougher up top, NJ could be in trouble.
Eyes On – Josh Boone. Has a knack for being in the right place at the right time on offense and can also rebound and defend. His development is crucial to the Nets success.
Now or Never – Antoine Wright. This alleged shooter (career 41.9% from the field & 27% from 3) has yet to show anything. The 4th year team option on his rookie contract probably won’t be picked up. ‘Nuff said.
9. Milwaukee Bucks – There’s no doubt that when healthy this club will be able to score with anybody. The question is can they get enough stops on defense for it to matter? That job falls to coach Larry Krystkowiak who will have a full training to camp to install his defensive system. Even if Krystkowiak gets them to defend, that’s only half the battle as the Bucks also can’t rebound worth a lick. Regardless, Milwaukee should be a very entertaining team to watch this season.
Eyes On – Bobby Simmons. A forgotten man after he missed all of last year with right foot problems. His presence gives the Bucks a guy who thinks defense first.
Now or Never – Charlie Villanueva. When you get traded after your rookie year, then your replacement is drafted after your sophomore campaign (with the same skill set taboot), something isn’t right.
10. Charlotte Bobcats – Longtime readers know how much I’ve always liked this squad, and this year is no exception. The Cats have a nice balance of offense and defense throughout their rotation, but experience and depth up front will likely be their undoing. Losing Sean May (microfracture surgery right knee) and Adam Morrison (torn ACL left knee) for the season hurts, and rookie coach Sam Vincent is an unknown commodity, yet I still see them hanging around the playoff chase all year.
Eyes On – Jason Richardson. As their unquestioned go-to-guy Charlotte will look to J-Rich to score in every clutch situation. But will he be able to deliver on a nightly basis?
Now or Never – Primoz Brezec. In his contract year, and especially with their plethora of front court injuries, the Cats need the big Slovenian to find his form of two seasons ago.
11. New York Knicks – Once again the Knicks look to have a very deep and talented roster on paper. But as is the norm under this regime, the player’s skills don’t mesh well at all. That said, the Knicks should have one of the more dominant front lines in the league (scoring & rebounding wise) and no problem putting up points. Their issues as I see them will be defense, sharing the ball and guys accepting their roles (i.e. minutes). Honestly, they’ll be fun to watch in a train wreck sort of way.
Eyes On – Zach Randolph. Should be an All-Star in the East, but how will he handle NYC away from the court? Bright lights, big city + Z-Bo = a recipe for disaster.
Now or Never – Isiah Thomas. After being found guilty of sexual harassment coach/President Zeke has got to be feeling the pressure to finally make the playoffs.
12. Washington Wizards – Obviously scoring has never been a problem for this group. Unfortunately stopping the opposition has, and quite frankly President Ernie Grunfeld did nothing to address that in the summer. Losing Etan Thomas for the season (heart surgery) hurts their already porous rebounding as well. Then there’s the impending free agency of Gilbert Arenas AND Antawn Jamison. If both of them are playing for numbers this year, things are going to get ugly in DC.
Eyes On – Andray Blatche. If this 21 year old big man can even remotely find some consistency to his game it will make a major difference for the Wiz.
Now or Never – Coach Eddie Jordan. At 83-81 in the regular season and 2-8 in the playoffs over the last two years, the defense he keeps talking about better materialize soon or he’ll be out of a job.
13. Atlanta Hawks – With the never ending tug of war for ownership of the franchise still ongoing, the Hawks once again did practically nothing in the off season. While Director Billy Knight was largely applauded for his draft, I don’t see how two rookies are suddenly going to make Atlanta a playoff contender. What the Hawks need to do is package a few of their youngsters for an established star who compliments Joe Johnson’s game. Until then all Atlanta fans can do is watch people develop.
Eyes On – Josh Smith. He has finished the last two years very strong when the Hawks were already out of contention. So the question is can J-Smoove put together a complete season when the games actually matter?
Now or Never – Marvin Williams. After two completely lackluster years the #2 pick from 2005 better do something soon because his replacement was just drafted #3 overall.
14. Indiana Pacers – For a club that finished seven games out of the playoffs in the weaker conference last season, Indy did little over the summer besides naming Jim O’Brien as their new coach. I don’t know what to tell you Pacer fans? Standing pat in the NBA is never a good thing, ESPECIALLY when you were bad the previous year. Who knows? I guess it’s possible that Troy Murphy flourishes in the new system while Jermaine O’Neal stays healthy and Danny Granger emerges. Just not likely.
Eyes On – Travis Diener. A steady PG that knows how to run a team and is a deadly 3-point shooter. He is a perfect fit for Obie’s preferred style of play.
Now or Never – Larry Bird. In the four seasons since “The Legend” was named President Indy has gone from 61 wins to 44 to 41 to 35. Great player. Good coach. Terrible personnel man.
15. Philadelphia 76ers – Don’t buy into their 17-9 finishing kick from last season people. This is not a good squad by any stretch of the imagination. The Sixers are a collection of unproven young players and middling veterans, with the one notable exception being Andre Iguodala. It’s not all bad though as Philly has some intriguing young players and the team takes pride in the effort they give on a nightly basis. Take heart Sixer fans, sometimes to become good in the NBA you have to be real bad first.
Eyes On – Louis Williams. A lightning quick undersized SG that should see plenty of playing time as the season wears on.
Now or Never – Rodney Carney. When you’re an uber athlete that can’t create your own shot, or beat out Willie Green for minutes, those are some serious red flags.
Final Four – Chicago, Boston, Orlando, Detroit
Eastern Finals – Chicago, Detroit
After deviating from the norm last year, my pre-season previews are back to their original format (sorry Doug).
On to business…
1. Chicago Bulls – This team is very deep and versatile up front and has another season of experience under their belt. It’s a given that coach Scott Skiles will get his club to play hard every night, and their defense and rebounding should continue to be stellar. Unfortunately the problem for the Bulls is same as ever, who is going to score in the low post when they aren’t hitting their jumpers? It’s probably a little much to count on rookie center Aaron Gray, so the burden may fall to SF Luol Deng.
Eyes On – Tyrus Thomas. Looks like he’ll be handed the starting PF spot. If he has developed even one go to move on offense, look out.
Now or Never – Ben Gordon. As he enters his contract year Ben must prove he is not a defensive liability in the playoffs, or else it’ll be sayonara time.
2. Detroit Pistons – After his disastrous flame out in the Eastern Conference Finals last year, Rasheed Wallace lost 25 pounds and made amends with coach Flip Saunders over the summer. That should help, but not as much as infusing the rotation with some youth and athleticism will. The Pistons have relied on their starters far too much over the past four seasons, so developing any kind of a consistent bench should keep their main guys fresh for another post season run.
Eyes On – Amir Johnson. He signed for $11 million over three years after averaging 18.9 points, 9.7 rebounds & 3.14 blocks while shooting 62.3% in the D-League. The 20 year old is 6’11 and a super-freak athletically.
Now or Never – Jarvis Hayes. This injury prone “shooter” (career 40.2% from the field) signed a one year deal to give Detroit some scoring off the pine. I’ll believe it when I see it.
3. Orlando Magic – The combination of Rashard Lewis and J.J. Redick gives Orlando the kind of outside shooting they lacked last year. Additionally, the Magic players should enjoy playing for underrated new coach Stan Van Gundy. However, losing big man Tony Battie for the season to a torn left rotator cuff is blow to their front court depth. While the signing of Adonal Foyle should help offset that some, I expect Orlando to make a trade (Hedo Turkoglu?) that addresses that deficiency before too long.
Eyes On – Dwight Howard. If the rumors are true that he has developed a mid-range jumper that utilizes the glass, I fear for the rest of the league.
Now or Never – Jameer Nelson. He enters his contract year coming off a season that saw his PER drop from 19.55 to 13.92. With a new coach, system & teammates a lot will be expected of Jameer.
4. Boston Celtics – I don’t see Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett having any trouble developing chemistry for two reasons. First, they are all veterans that haven’t won anything. Second, their respective talents mesh so well together. KG will work the post, PP in between and Ray-Ray deep outside. The Celtics problems start with coach Doc Rivers and end with their bench. I expect Doc will be exposed big time this season, and while Boston does have some decent depth on the wings, they are terribly thin up front and at the point.
Eyes On – Rajon Rondo. An elite athlete and defender that knows how to run a team. The sky’s the limit for him if he can hit an open 15-18 foot jumper.
Now or Never – Tony Allen. Entering his contract year coming off a serious left knee injury, it’s time for Tony to prove he’s a consistent rotation player in the NBA.
5. Toronto Raptors – This squad has depth all over the place, well defined individual roles and actually likes playing together. The Raptors have arguably the best PG duo in the league and the addition of SF Jason Kapono gives them a consistent 3-point threat. The reason they aren’t higher up is because Chris Bosh’s left knee is already giving him grief and Jorge Garbajosa’s left leg supposedly isn’t healed properly yet. Toronto also won’t sneak up on anyone this year, so it remains to be seen how they’ll adjust to that.
Eyes On – Andrea Bargnani. Is he really starting center material? I worry about how the nightly banging down low will affect the other aspects of his game, especially his confidence.
Now or Never – Carlos Delfino. He’s never come close to anything resembling consistent production. If he can’t do it on the Euro-Raps, it’s back to Europe for real.
6. Cleveland Cavaliers – The Cavs are tough to predict right now because of the on going Brazilian standoff between GM Danny Ferry and big man Anderson Varejao. Make no mistake; Varejao was very instrumental in Cleveland’s success last season. Without him they just aren’t as good, there’s really no way around it. For the Cavs to take the next step in their evolution Daniel Gibson must continue his development, Larry Hughes has to stay healthy and LeBron James’ jumper better be as good as advertised.
Eyes On – Devin Brown. After playing well for the Hornets as a mid-year pick up last season, Cleveland needs Brown to provide their second unit with some scoring punch.
Now or Never – Cedric Simmons. It’s never a good thing when you get traded after your rookie year for a guy that’s about to retire. Will get his chance if Varejao doesn’t report.
7. Miami Heat – If they played in the West they’d be on the outside looking in. As is, I expect the Heat to get off to a slow start once again and rally down the stretch. Shaquille O’Neal’s left leg is already aching, and coach/President Pat Riley has to be careful not to rush Dwyane Wade back too soon. Without D Wade Miami is just an old unathletic team without any depth. In fact, looking at their roster it’s hard for me to come up with anything positive to say about the Heat other than they have Wade and Shaq.
Eyes On – Alexander Johnson. Unless he has off the court problems, I have no idea why Memphis released him. His addition could make Udonis Haslem trade bait.
Now or Never – Dorell Wright. He should get plenty of minutes in his contract year almost by default since the rest of their swing men are so gawd awful.
8. New Jersey Nets – In theory Richard Jefferson and Nenad Krstic being healthy should make the Nets better than they were last year. However I see two factors that will balance NJ’s final ledger. One, Vince Cater is no longer playing for a new contract. And two, I doubt that Jason Kidd will produce at the same level he did last season. This is more or less the same Nets crew that has been getting over on a weak East all these years. So with the conference becoming tougher up top, NJ could be in trouble.
Eyes On – Josh Boone. Has a knack for being in the right place at the right time on offense and can also rebound and defend. His development is crucial to the Nets success.
Now or Never – Antoine Wright. This alleged shooter (career 41.9% from the field & 27% from 3) has yet to show anything. The 4th year team option on his rookie contract probably won’t be picked up. ‘Nuff said.
9. Milwaukee Bucks – There’s no doubt that when healthy this club will be able to score with anybody. The question is can they get enough stops on defense for it to matter? That job falls to coach Larry Krystkowiak who will have a full training to camp to install his defensive system. Even if Krystkowiak gets them to defend, that’s only half the battle as the Bucks also can’t rebound worth a lick. Regardless, Milwaukee should be a very entertaining team to watch this season.
Eyes On – Bobby Simmons. A forgotten man after he missed all of last year with right foot problems. His presence gives the Bucks a guy who thinks defense first.
Now or Never – Charlie Villanueva. When you get traded after your rookie year, then your replacement is drafted after your sophomore campaign (with the same skill set taboot), something isn’t right.
10. Charlotte Bobcats – Longtime readers know how much I’ve always liked this squad, and this year is no exception. The Cats have a nice balance of offense and defense throughout their rotation, but experience and depth up front will likely be their undoing. Losing Sean May (microfracture surgery right knee) and Adam Morrison (torn ACL left knee) for the season hurts, and rookie coach Sam Vincent is an unknown commodity, yet I still see them hanging around the playoff chase all year.
Eyes On – Jason Richardson. As their unquestioned go-to-guy Charlotte will look to J-Rich to score in every clutch situation. But will he be able to deliver on a nightly basis?
Now or Never – Primoz Brezec. In his contract year, and especially with their plethora of front court injuries, the Cats need the big Slovenian to find his form of two seasons ago.
11. New York Knicks – Once again the Knicks look to have a very deep and talented roster on paper. But as is the norm under this regime, the player’s skills don’t mesh well at all. That said, the Knicks should have one of the more dominant front lines in the league (scoring & rebounding wise) and no problem putting up points. Their issues as I see them will be defense, sharing the ball and guys accepting their roles (i.e. minutes). Honestly, they’ll be fun to watch in a train wreck sort of way.
Eyes On – Zach Randolph. Should be an All-Star in the East, but how will he handle NYC away from the court? Bright lights, big city + Z-Bo = a recipe for disaster.
Now or Never – Isiah Thomas. After being found guilty of sexual harassment coach/President Zeke has got to be feeling the pressure to finally make the playoffs.
12. Washington Wizards – Obviously scoring has never been a problem for this group. Unfortunately stopping the opposition has, and quite frankly President Ernie Grunfeld did nothing to address that in the summer. Losing Etan Thomas for the season (heart surgery) hurts their already porous rebounding as well. Then there’s the impending free agency of Gilbert Arenas AND Antawn Jamison. If both of them are playing for numbers this year, things are going to get ugly in DC.
Eyes On – Andray Blatche. If this 21 year old big man can even remotely find some consistency to his game it will make a major difference for the Wiz.
Now or Never – Coach Eddie Jordan. At 83-81 in the regular season and 2-8 in the playoffs over the last two years, the defense he keeps talking about better materialize soon or he’ll be out of a job.
13. Atlanta Hawks – With the never ending tug of war for ownership of the franchise still ongoing, the Hawks once again did practically nothing in the off season. While Director Billy Knight was largely applauded for his draft, I don’t see how two rookies are suddenly going to make Atlanta a playoff contender. What the Hawks need to do is package a few of their youngsters for an established star who compliments Joe Johnson’s game. Until then all Atlanta fans can do is watch people develop.
Eyes On – Josh Smith. He has finished the last two years very strong when the Hawks were already out of contention. So the question is can J-Smoove put together a complete season when the games actually matter?
Now or Never – Marvin Williams. After two completely lackluster years the #2 pick from 2005 better do something soon because his replacement was just drafted #3 overall.
14. Indiana Pacers – For a club that finished seven games out of the playoffs in the weaker conference last season, Indy did little over the summer besides naming Jim O’Brien as their new coach. I don’t know what to tell you Pacer fans? Standing pat in the NBA is never a good thing, ESPECIALLY when you were bad the previous year. Who knows? I guess it’s possible that Troy Murphy flourishes in the new system while Jermaine O’Neal stays healthy and Danny Granger emerges. Just not likely.
Eyes On – Travis Diener. A steady PG that knows how to run a team and is a deadly 3-point shooter. He is a perfect fit for Obie’s preferred style of play.
Now or Never – Larry Bird. In the four seasons since “The Legend” was named President Indy has gone from 61 wins to 44 to 41 to 35. Great player. Good coach. Terrible personnel man.
15. Philadelphia 76ers – Don’t buy into their 17-9 finishing kick from last season people. This is not a good squad by any stretch of the imagination. The Sixers are a collection of unproven young players and middling veterans, with the one notable exception being Andre Iguodala. It’s not all bad though as Philly has some intriguing young players and the team takes pride in the effort they give on a nightly basis. Take heart Sixer fans, sometimes to become good in the NBA you have to be real bad first.
Eyes On – Louis Williams. A lightning quick undersized SG that should see plenty of playing time as the season wears on.
Now or Never – Rodney Carney. When you’re an uber athlete that can’t create your own shot, or beat out Willie Green for minutes, those are some serious red flags.
Final Four – Chicago, Boston, Orlando, Detroit
Eastern Finals – Chicago, Detroit
posted by D$ at 11:30 AM
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