Spurs at Lakers

Post Season Numbers

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Los Angeles – 43.65%
San Antonio – 45.39%

Rebound Differential
Los Angeles – -7.30
San Antonio – +.75

Point Differential
Los Angeles – +7.10
San Antonio – +.83

Shooting
Los Angeles – 48.75%
San Antonio – 45.37%

3-Point Shooting
Los Angeles – 39.69%
San Antonio – 38.59%

Free Throw Shooting
Los Angeles – 76.00%
San Antonio – 74.13%

Turnovers
Los Angeles – 12.80
San Antonio – 12.67

Fouls
Los Angeles – 23.70
San Antonio – 23.58

Pace Factor
Los Angeles – 97.8
San Antonio – 90.9

Individual Match Ups

Point Guard
Derek Fisher & Jordan Farmar v Tony Parker & Jacque Vaughn – Even with all the good Fish has done this season I’ll most likely be calling for his head by the time this series is over. The reason being is that he has no chance to stay in front of Parker. NONE. Look for Tony to get into the lane at will and wreak havoc on the Lakers defense. Derek would be best served by playing off TP at least two steps and forcing him to be strictly a jump shooter. If Parker makes a fair percentage of them that’s fine because it’s better than him penetrating any time he feels like it.

After being such a big part of LA’s success all season Farmer has completely gone in the tank in the playoffs. He went from shooting 46.1% from the field and 37.1% from three to 26.5% and 20% repetitively. His PER has also dropped from 15.43 to a mind boggling 2.52. It’s a shame too because the Lakers could really use his quickness to defend TP. Jacque will see spot duty behind Tony and nothing more.

Shooting Guard
Kobe Bryant & Sasha Vujacic v Manu Ginobili & Michael Finley – Kobe’s patience, fortitude and trust is his teammates is going to be sorely tested in this series. I have a feeling that the Spurs might let Bryant go wild while focusing on stopping everyone else. If that is the case Kobe *must* stick with what got him here and not go into “hero” mode. I think Bryant is going to have little to no trouble putting the clamps on Ginobili. The reason I say that is because Manu (left ankle) is clearly not moving like he normally does. I also suspect that Kobe is going to step up to the challenge of taking Ginobili out of his comfort zones.

Unlike Farmar “The Machine” has continued his fine play off the bench on into the post season. Vujacic is clearly going to make shots, but his pesky D and agitating demeanor might be more important here. Sasha can guard either Parker or Manu for stretches, allowing Bryant to move over to Tony if need be. Finley will see plenty of time on the court as SA really needs his 3-point shooting. However much like Ginobili don’t expect Fin to be defending Kobe for any extended period.

Small Forward
Vladimir Radmanovic & Luke Walton v Bruce Bowen & Ime Udoka – I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, when Vlade has his head in the game and is making plays/shots LA is practically unbeatable. Of course your guess is as good as mine as to when that will actually happen. Bowen is going to be the primary defender on Bryant and Bruce will surely break out all his best “tricks”. Like the one where his forearm accidentally nails Kobe’s lower back after the whistle. The quality of job that Bowen does on Bryant really depends on what the refs let Bruce get away with. I’m sorry, but it’s true.

Walton has done a fine job filling in for Radmanovic on the many nights the enigmatic Serb takes off. The Lakers are going to need Luke’s passing and movement without the ball against the tough Spurs D. Udoka will undoubtedly be the second option on Kobe and will look to be even more physical with the MVP. Ime is stronger and longer than Bowen but probably not as quick and definitely not as savvy. That said those two are going to make Bryant work hard for everything he gets.

Sidebar: Trevor Ariza (right foot) is back practicing with the team and will be able to play in this series if coach Jackson allows it. Ariza’s length, quickness and overall athleticism will be HUGE for LA on the defensive end. With Manu hobbled Trevor should have no problems frustrating him. Ariza could also be key in containing Parker’s penetration.

Power Forward
Lamar Odom & Ronny Turiaf v Tim Duncan & Robert Horry – If there’s one thing I’m already certain of it’s that Odom can’t guard Duncan. I’m sure Lamar will get his opportunities but LO just doesn’t have the beef to bang with Timmy down low. On the flip side I don’t see a single big man on SA’s roster that can stick with Odom on the perimeter. Lamar abused Utah’s front line by using his quickness to put the ball on the deck as well as making sharp cuts to the hoop without the ball. Coach Popovich is going to have to work some of his magic here unless he decides to go small…which will likely play right into the Lakers hands.

Turiaf is another one that will get a shot on Duncan but Ronny’s lack of size and over exuberance will be exposed big time by TD. Horry showed some life in Game 7 against New Orleans but other than a cheap shot here and a 3-pointer there he’s no longer athletic enough to play a lot against LA.

Center
Pau Gasol & D.J. Mbenga v Fabricio Oberto & Kurt Thomas – While Gasol’s playoff numbers look good (20 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 4.5 apg, 2.9 bpg & 56.8%) I don’t think he’s been playing all that well. His D is soft, his fingers are buttery and his constant falling down is flat out ridiculous. I see this as a career defining moment for him…on the defensive end. He’s going to be the Lakers primary defender on Timmy and I highly doubt the Spaniard will be up to the test. Then again if Pau steps up to the task at hand he’ll forever shed the soft and unable to perform under pressure labels. There's no way Oberto can defend Odom, and since TD probably can't guard LO either, I don’t expect to see a lot of Fab in this series.

Mbenga is going to be to be a very important player for LA because no one else on the Lakers possesses his combination of size, strength and athleticism. The question is can he play smart and stay on the court long enough to make a difference? We shall see. If D.J. flames out checking Duncan maybe Chris Mihm gets a chance, but I don’t see that going any better for LA. Thomas may end up starting and getting first crack at Lamar. While Kurt is an excellent positional defender I don’t think he has the quicks to stay in front of Odom either.

Coach
Phil Jackson v Gregg Popovich – The two highest paid coaches in NBA with a combined 13 championships between them going head-to-head…what more could you ask for? The break down goes like this; Pop is the superior play designer out of huddles and Phil is better at game-to-game adjustments. I give Jackson the edge here solely because he has more versatility at his disposal.

Overall

These squads split their season series 2-2 with the home side winning every game. The winning team always scored over 102 points and the loser 85, but the weird thing is how each club’s shooting percentage was so close in the first three contests. I’m talking .1%, 2.2% and .4% here (the Lakers were 8.2% better on 4/13). The similarities stop there though as the Spurs had the edge in most other metrics.

SA made 4.75 more 3’s per game, had 4.75 more assists per game, 3 more steals per game and committed 5.25 less turnovers per game. LA’s one advantage, and it was a big one, was on the boards where they out rebounded the Spurs by a whopping 10.5 per game (2.75 on the offensive glass as well).

The Lakers tend to lull clubs to sleep by trading baskets with them all night long. The danger in this is that most teams don’t have the depth to keep it up for 48 minutes solid like LA does. I see this as major trouble for the Spurs on two fronts. First, SA has trouble scoring sometimes and the Lakers never do. Second, the Spurs in many ways like to get out and run these days as their offense shifts away from being Duncan-centric and plays more to the strengths of Parker and Ginobili.

So for SA to give themselves their best chance to win they’ll have to muck it up and try to control the tempo. The Spurs would also be wise to pound the ball into Timmy down low again and again and again finally forcing LA to double (something they rarely do). When not running their O through Duncan the ball should be in Tony’s hands letting TP break down the Laker D either by scoring or creating.

LA’s defense is better than most people give them credit for, but I fear that the Lakers just don’t match up well with two of SA’s best three players. (Damn your left knee Andrew Bynum!) What LA does have going for them though is that they are longer, quicker and much more athletic overall than the Spurs are. That and they have best player on the planet.

Prediction: This is really a toss up in my mind as I can make a good case for either side. So it’s with little confidence that I make my selection. Lakers in 6.

Pistons at Celtics

Post Season Numbers

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Boston – 40.98%
Detroit – 43.95%

Rebound Differential
Boston – +1.29
Detroit – -.55

Point Differential
Boston – +5.43
Detroit – +4.45

Shooting
Boston – 44.38%
Detroit – 45.77%

3-Point Shooting
Boston – 34.05%
Detroit – 34.04%

Free Throw Shooting
Boston – 77.74%
Detroit – 80.43%

Turnovers
Boston – 11.50
Detroit – 12.00

Fouls
Boston – 24.50
Detroit – 22.55

Pace Factor
Boston – 88.0
Detroit – 88.1

Individual Match Ups

Point Guard
Rajon Rondo & Sam Cassell v Chauncey Billups & Rodney Stuckey – Billups missed the final two games of the second round with a strained right hamstring, but 11 full days off has him healed and ready to go for the Conference Finals. Rondo’s defense will be put to the test here as Chaunc is the engine that makes the Pistons go. But just as important for the Celts is Rajon’s offense since I’m sure Detroit will dare him to beat them. If/when Billups is not hitting from the outside he should try and post Rondo up some and distribute from there.

Cassell has been downright AWFUL this post season (33.8% shooting, 27.8% on 3’s with a 9.44 PER) taking bad shots and getting torched on defense. At 38 years old I think it’s safe to say it’s over for Sam. Stuckey did an admirable job filling in for Chaunc and should see a lot of minutes as the Pistons third guard.

Shooting Guard
Ray Allen & Eddie House v Richard Hamilton & Arron Afflalo – Allen shot just 32.8% from the field and 16.7% from three in averaging 9.3 points against Cleveland. For one of the best shooters in the history of the game that is straight up pathetic. On the flip side Rip leads his club in playoffs scoring at 21.5 ppg. Hamilton needs to continuously move without the ball and use his younger legs to try and wear Ray down over the course of the series. Expect Detroit to also continue doubling the ball out of Allen’s hands when he touches it in hopes that his cold streak continues.

House’s energy and outside shooting in the last two games versus Cleveland were huge for Boston. So much so that it makes you wonder how he lost his minutes to Cassell in the first place. Anyway, look for Eddie to return to his role as third guard for the Celts full time in this series. I don’t see Afflalo playing much here.

Small Forward
Paul Pierce & James Posey v Tayshaun Prince & Jarvis Hayes – PP played the role of savior in Game 7 last round, but something tells me he’ll have a much tougher go of it against Prince. Tay’s job will be simple, get up into Pierce’s grill right from the opening tip and be renting space in his head before the series is over. While Paul can rest some on D this round, his offense and clutch shooting will be needed more...and has to come against maybe the best perimeter defender in the entire NBA.

Posey’s defense has been big for Boston throughout the regular season and on into the playoff. The problem here is that I’m not sure who he can effectively check besides Prince. The Pistons front court is too big and their back court too quick, so his specialty is pretty much negated. Hayes might see spot duty when Tay is getting a rest but that is all.

Power Forward
Kevin Garnett & Leon Powe v Rasheed Wallace & Jason Maxiell – There can be no doubt that this is the main event, especially since these two will end up guarding each other most of the time. KG and Sheed have very similar body types, athletic ability and skills. The main differences I see in the two are that Wallace has more range on his jumper (possibly more post moves too) and Garnett is the superior rebounder. It’s difficult to say who has the advantage, but here’s to hoping they bring the best out of each other.

Powe and Maxiell are two of my favorite role players as they provide energy, rebounding, defense, hustle and the ability to finish around the rim in traffic for their respective teams. I give a slight edge to Jason though because he’s tougher and possesses a little bit more athleticism.

Center
Kendrick Perkins & P.J. Brown & Antonio McDyess & Theo Ratliff – This is an underrated match up because Perk killed Detroit on the boards in their three tilts this season to the tune of 11.7 rebounds per game (he averaged 6.1 rpg in 78 games) and 4.3 offensive rpg (up from 1.9 orpg). Dyess must do something to keep Kendrick off the glass besides trying to muscle him and a good start would be to make a few mid-range jump shots.

If not for Brown’s Game 7 performance (4-4 FG, 2-2 FT & 6 rebounds in 20 minutes) it’s questionable that the Celts are even here. So P.J. could once again play a big role for his club if Perk gets into foul trouble. I don’t expect to see Ratliff at all in this series.

Coach
Doc Rivers v Flip Saunders – This is like the rudimentary coaching class compared to the masters session out west. I guess it will be fun to see whose brain locks up more over the course of the series, but I can’t really say I’m all that excited for this one. I’ll give Flip the edge in preparation & adjustments and Doc takes motivation & respect. The deciding factor in Saunders’ favor is that he is better at diagramming plays out of huddles.

Overall

For some reason these two squads only met three times in the regular season. The Pistons won in the Gah-den on 12/19 and Boston in Motown (1/5) and at home (3/5). The highest point total for any team was 92 (C’s win at Detroit). The best two shooting nights were courtesy of Boston at home (49.3% & 46.1%). The rest were a horrific 41.9%, 40.3%, 39.2% and 36.4%...YUCK!

In their three games the Celts out rebounded the Pistons by an average of 9.67 rpg. Detroit had the upper hand in turnovers by forcing Boston into 3.67 more per game. And the stat geek’s favorite number had the Celts with a +5.67 scoring margin over the Pistons. All other metrics were practically even on a game to game basis, except 3’s where Detroit made an average of three more per game.

For the Pistons to succeed they have to hit the boards hard because there figures to be a lot of missed shots and getting out rebounded by darn near double digits just won’t cut it. Conversely Boston must figure out how to win/score on the road because Detroit is savvy enough to take at least one game in Beantown.

This series is going to feature lots of physical defense, not much scoring and will be played at a snails pace to top it off. I wish I could type different, but these games should be boring at best and excruciating at worst to watch. In a match up this tight overall each contest will likely be decided by which team can handle the pressure and still make smart plays during crunch time. Possible x-factors are Chauncey’s hammy not holding up for the duration and how much the Celtics’ energy/stamina was affected by their two series going the full seven games.

Prediction: I picked the Pistons to make the Finals back in October and I’m not backing off that now. Detroit in 6.

Cavaliers at Celtics

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Boston – 41.90% (1st)
Cleveland – 45.48% (11th)

Rebound Differential
Boston – +3.12 (3rd)
Cleveland – +4.15 (1st)

Point Differential
Boston – +10.25 (1st)
Cleveland – -.35 (16th)

Shooting
Boston – 47.50% (4th)
Cleveland – 43.86% (28th)

3-Point Shooting
Boston – 38.1% (5th)
Cleveland – 35.8 (15th)

Free Throw Shooting
Boston – 77.07% (8th)
Cleveland – 71.66% (28th)

Turnovers
Boston – 15.19 (27th)
Cleveland – 13.96 (10th)

Fouls
Boston – 22.73 (26th)
Cleveland – 20.87 (16th)

Pace Factor
Boston – 93.3 (19th)
Cleveland – 92.5 (22nd)

Individual Match Ups

Point Guard
Rajon Rondo & Sam Cassell v Delonte West & Daniel Gibson – Rondo’s defense is going to be key in this series because he can check every player in the Cavs back court rotation. Rajon should also have no problem shutting down West or Gibson with his superior length and athleticism. Delonte will be best served focusing on cutting off Rondo’s penetration, running his team and creating for others.

Cassell has been a mixed bag for the Celts. Yes he provides leadership in clutch moments, but he is ridiculously slow on defense and tends to freelance on offense (i.e. take bad shots) too much. Gibson shot 50% from 3-point land and was the Cavs third leading scorer (11.8 ppg) in round one. It would be huge for Cleveland if “Boobie” is able to keep that up.

Shooting Guard
Ray Allen & Eddie House v Wally Szczerbiak & Devin Brown – I was a little surprised that Wally got the starting nod against Washington. True his stroke has been off since joining the Cavs, but it’s his defense that concerns me more. Even though Allen has lost quite a few steps, Szczerbiak still doesn’t have the quickness to stay with him. In fact, other than maybe Posey I don’t see anyone on Boston that World can guard. Ray should have field day getting open and hitting shots against most of the defenders Cleveland throws at him.

Brown’s defense is going to be very important for the Cavs, especially if Sasha isn’t fully healed yet, because Devin has the ability to step up and take some pressure off LeBron on that end. The arrival of Cassell has drastically reduced House’s minutes, so much so that Eddie is actually pouting…during the playoffs.

Small Forward
Paul Pierce & James Posey v LeBron James & Sasha Pavlovic – PP versus LBJ is the main event as I see it. Both guys can do it all on offense so the difference here will be which one decides to play defense too. Both are capable defenders, but each has a tendency to lose focus on that end. In this case lack of mental discipline could lead to foul trouble, which will certainly lead to trouble for the club in question. I anticipate some trash talking here and hopefully we are treated to some back and forth crunch time one-upmanship.

Posey’s defense and post season experience are going to be key for the Celts as he is by far their best option to keep James in check. Two minuets in game 6 was Pavlovic’s first action since 4/16 (left ankle). Sasha returning to form would really boost the Cavs perimeter defense.

Power Forward
Kevin Garnett & Leon Powe v Ben Wallace & Joe Smith – KG is going to have to step up his rebounding in this series for his squad to advance. Yes he’ll still have to score, defend and lead by example like he always does, but cleaning the glass really needs to be his focus. Wallace is a shadow of what he used to be, but if he does have anything left now would be the time to show it. Even if Big Ben does perform stiff-like at the very least he’s another big body to throw at Garnett.

Powe is another player that must protect the boards for Boston. I worry about him being undersized here because Cleveland’s front court is so big. Smith’s craftiness around the basket on offense and positional defense are very nice to have coming off the pine. Joe isn’t quick enough to hang with KG anymore, but Smith does have enough strength to bang with Garnett down low.

Center
Kendrick Perkins & Glen Davis v Zydrunas Ilgauskas & Anderson Varejao – Perkins is a big and somewhat athletic body that can defend, but for some reason I think Big Z can take it to him. That would be if the Cavs ever made getting the big Lithuanian regular touches down low a part of their offense. To me Ilgauskas’ variety of post moves combined with his craftiness is enough to keep Kendrick permanently on the bench with foul trouble. Oh yeah, Perk must also rebound the heck out of the ball when he’s out there.

Varejao has somewhat surprisingly seen his minutes decrease with the arrival of Wallace and Smith. That should change here as “Sideshow Bob” is probably Cleveland’s best option on KG, especially if Big Ben is disinterested. Davis can throw his weight around with the best of them, but I don’t think he has the height or length to be effective in this series. P.J. Brown is also an option here, but he has been brutal every time I’ve seen him play since he came back.

Coach
Doc Rivers v Mike Brown – If the first round proved anything about the Celts it’s that Doc is shaky at best on the sidelines. It’s not like Brown is a Hall of Famer though either. These guys both struggle with in game and game-to-games adjustments alike. So I’ll lean ever so slightly toward Mike here because he’s a better diagrammer of plays out of huddles...but just barely.

Overall

These teams split the season series 2-2 with the home side going undefeated. The Cavs won by 5 & 1 and Boston by 10 (no LeBron) & 5. In the two games played at the Gah-den both clubs tallied less than 100 points. Whereas the two contests in Cleveland featured both squads scoring over 100. Sound familiar Celtic fans? Anyhow the biggest statistical difference was that the Cavs out rebounded Boston by 5 rpg total and 4.5 rpg on the offensive glass.

Cleveland was the third worst shooting team in the league during the regular season so I wonder if they’ll be able to score enough points against one of the best defensive clubs of all time. Since it goes without saying that James will do his thing it’s up to the Cavs shooters to make outside shots. One of West, Gibson, Brown, Szczerbiak or Pavlovic is going to have to step up nightly or Cleveland will be in trouble.

If I haven’t stressed it enough already the Celts *must* rebound as a team since the Cavs have more active big bodies up front. Given that Cleveland can’t shoot straight a big part of their offense comes off second chance opportunities. So if Boston can limit those, close out on shooters and keep Bron under 50 they should be fine.

I’m really excited for LBJ versus the Celts, and not just because it’s the most hyped player going up against the most hyped team in the NBA either. These games should actually be low scoring and pretty boring until about the last four minutes. That’s when they’ll really get interesting though. Can James handle another round of hard fouls? Can Garnett finally step up and carry his club when the chips are down? I don’t know, but I’m willing to bet it makes for some great theater.

Prediction: Lots of close games decided at crunch time. LeBron can win one or two by himself, but in the end he won’t have enough help. Boston in 6.

Jazz at Lakers

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Los Angeles – 44.53% (6th)
Utah – 46.07% (17th)

Rebound Differential
Los Angeles – +1.35 (8th)
Utah – +3.07 (4th)

Point Differential
Los Angeles – +7.25 (3rd)
Utah – +6.87 (4th)

Shooting
Los Angeles – 47.64% (3rd)
Utah – 49.74% (2nd)

3-Point Shooting
Los Angeles – 37.8% (6th)
Utah – 37.2% (10th)

Free Throw Shooting
Los Angeles – 76.92% (10th)
Utah – 75.94% (16th)

Turnovers
Los Angeles – 14.09 (11th)
Utah – 14.63 (19th)

Fouls
Los Angeles – 20.62 (15th)
Utah – 24.02 (30th)

Pace Factor
Los Angeles – 98.0 (6th)
Utah – 95.6 (11th)

Individual Match Ups

Point Guard
Derek Fisher & Jordan Farmar v Deron Williams & Ronnie Price – Even though D Wil is slowed by a bruised tailbone I don’t think Fisher can stay in front of him. Deron needs to take advantage when Fish is guarding him because the Lakers have plenty of more athletic bodies to throw at Williams. I’m sure Derek will hear plenty of boos from the Salt Lake faithful, but I don’t expect it to affect his performance any. Fish just needs to make good decisions with the ball and hit open shots.

Farmar is one of those afore mention bodies. While lacking the ideal strength, Jordan does have the quickness to stay with D Wil on defense, and enough offensive ability to make Deron work on both ends. Price is lighting quick and plays the instant offense role for the Jazz, but Ronnie has a tendency to make bad decisions and get yanked rather quickly.

Shooting Guard
Kobe Bryant & Sasha Vujacic v Ronnie Brewer & Kyle Korver – Staying with the Williams theme, I anticipate Kobe will be the man to check D Wil in crunch time and all other important possessions. On offense Bryant needs to continue keeping everyone involved and taking over only when he senses his squad needs it. Brewer is great at moving without the ball, so Kobe can’t sleep when he’s on Ronnie. Brewer has the length and athleticism to do as good a job as humanly possible on the league MVP, but I worry about his experience since “Mamba” knows every trick in the book.

Vujacic is the last guy who will rotate on to Deron at times. Believe it or not, Sasha is actually a very pesky defender with underrated athletic ability. He also possesses more bulk than Farmar, so after Bryant Vujacic may be LA’s best option to contain D Wil. Korver has absolutely no chance on Kobe, so KK might see his minutes cut as a result of that.

Small Forward
Vladimir Radmanovic & Luke Walton v Andrei Kirilenko & Matt Harpring – Vlad starts mainly because his space cadet mental approach makes him useless off the bench. When Radmanovic decides to play and is active the Lakers are pretty much unbeatable, but he can’t be counted on because he’s so rarely engaged. I’ve always wanted to see AK-47 on Bryant in a playoff series. The reason being that I don’t think there’s anyone in the league with the combination of height, extreme length, athleticism and defensive know-how that Andrei has. The only question with Kirilenko is mental; as is how bad will he want it and can Kobe get into his head? I can’t wait to find out myself.

Walton was big for LA in round one averaging 14 points, 5 rebounds, 3.8 assists and shooting 71% from the field and 80% from three. Now I don’t expect he’ll keep that up, but anything close would be nice. Harpring will also get a chance on Bryant, but more so to be physical and rough him up than actually contain him. While Matt still plays hard, he’s lost at least a step (being kind) and doesn’t get extended time unless he’s making shots.

Power Forward
Lamar Odom & Ronny Turiaf v Carlos Boozer & Paul Millsap – Odom is going to have his work cut out for him here. While Lamar’s length will bother Booz’s mid-range game, I don’t think LO has the bulk to deal with Carlos down low. Odom has to stay out of foul trouble because his rebounding and versatility on offense are extremely important to the Lakers success. Lamar’s best weapon will be to try and take Boozer off the dribble and utilize his quickness advantage and maybe put some fouls on Carlos. After averaging 21.1 points, 10.4 rebounds and shooting 54.7% in the regular season, Boozer is down to 16, 11.7 and 42.9% in the playoffs. This goes beyond one series too as his numbers in April (13.9, 7.4 & 49.4%) are even worse, and when compared to March’s production (22.8, 10.3 & 60.1%) are almost inexplicable. If he’s hurt, he’s not letting on, but it goes without saying that Utah needs Carlos to step up if they are to have any chance.

The bench guys play exactly the same way, and are almost carbon copies of one another. The difference between the two right now is that Turiaf is getting healthy after suffering from tonsillitis against Denver, and Millsap still isn’t himself to my eyes (left big toe). The energy, defense and rebounding these two bring is needed by both of their respective clubs.

Center
Pau Gasol & D.J. Mbenga v Memo Okur & Jarron Collins – This is an intriguing match up since both guys can play inside or out. Gasol prefers the low block, but can work in the high post too. Okur likes to hang out at the 3-point line, but he has an underrated post up game as well. We could see cross matches here also, with Pau on Booz and even possibly Okur on Odom. Since the Jazz never played against Gasol this season it’s hard for me to get too specific, but each man will certainly be challenged to play more defense than they normally like to.

Mbenga played great against the Nuggets in the short spurts he was out there. His activity, athleticism and shot blocking were welcome sights to LA fans. Collins will probably be glued to the pine since all the Lakers big men are too quick for him.

Coach
Phil Jackson v Jerry Sloan – This could really be the main event in the series considering these legends have 2,339 combined wins (regular & post season) between them. Each guy commands respect, demands execution on both ends of the court and is not afraid to bench players who don’t comply. The funny thing is that neither of them is good at in game adjustments, but both are impeccable preparers. Phil is the better game-to-game adjuster and Jerry the superior diagramer of plays out of huddles. It’s hard to go against Jackson here since he has 92 more playoff wins than Sloan does.

Overall

LA won the season series 3-1 with the most impressive victory coming in Salt Lake on 3/20 when the Lakers were without Pau. Not only is LA one of the four teams to beat Utah at home, but the Lakers margin of victory over the Jazz in their three wins was 11.7 points. LA also averaged 116 points a game in those victories, which is impressive since the Jazz allowed 99.34 ppg in the regular season. The weird thing is that in Utah’s lone win on 11/30 Boozer AND Okur didn’t play and the Jazz still won by 24. However the Lakers were on a back-to-back and their third game in four nights and had just played Seattle and Denver (high octane offenses) the previous games. Even though Utah is the superior rebounding club, LA held their own in their four contests this year only getting out rebounded by 2.5 per game.

Both squads are deep, versatile and play offense basically the same way. The Lakers of course run the triangle which features crisp ball movement and unselfish play when it’s clicking. The Jazz run probably the oldest offense in the book based mainly on the pick & roll and high-low post action. Each team also moves well without the ball and makes sharp cuts to the basket which usually result in lay-ups. Both clubs will also look to fast break when given the opportunity, but won’t force the issue either.

We’re talking about two of the top three shooting teams and two of the top four passing teams in the NBA here. The main differences I see are that LA is better defensively and is also the superior road squad (10 more wins than Utah away from home).

I worry that the Jazz won’t be able to score points with the Lakers if the tempo is elevated throughout, so I think Utah’s best chance is to slow things down and pound the ball inside to Booz and Memo. Those two both cause match up problems for LA that Phil will have to solve sooner or later.

As long as the Lakers play their game and don’t let the physicality of the Jazz frustrate them they should be fine. Of course it would help if one or two of Fisher, Farmar, Vujacic, Radmanovic or Walton is hitting their threes every night.

Prediction: D Wil isn’t 100%, Boozer is struggling and LA is peaking at the right time. Boldly typing Lakers in 5.

Magic at Pistons

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Detroit – 43.71% (3rd)
Orlando – 44.60% (7th)

Rebound Differential
Detroit – +2.29 (7th)
Orlando – +.31 (16th)

Point Differential
Detroit – +7.39 (2nd)
Orlando – +5.46 (5th)

Shooting
Detroit – 45.78% (13th)
Orlando – 47.44% (5th)

3-Point Shooting
Detroit – 36.6% (13th)
Orlando – 38.6% (4th)

Free Throw Shooting
Detroit – 76.69% (14th)
Orlando – 72.12% (27th)

Turnovers
Detroit – 11.65 (1st)
Orlando – 14.30 (13th)

Fouls
Detroit – 20.58 (13th)
Orlando – 20.58 (14th)

Pace Factor
Detroit – 89.9 (30th)
Orlando – 95.6 (10th)

Individual Match Ups

Point Guard
Chauncey Billups & Rodney Stuckey v Jameer Nelson & Carlos Arroyo – Nelson really stepped up in the first round shooting 51.9% from the field and 50% from three. His floor game was solid too, as he did an outstanding job running his club. Jameer’s defense was Swiss cheese though, and that won’t cut it against Billups. However Chaunc really hasn’t set the world on fire with his play and has been chilly from the floor (40.3%) and three (33.3%) alike in the playoffs. This is an interesting tussle and an important one at that. PG play is always key in the NBA, but when either of these two is making shots AND keeping everyone involved, their squads perform at a much higher level.

Stuckey’s energy and explosiveness as the Pistons third guard hasn’t been utilized as much as I'd like. This rookie could really provide his team with a lift off the pine if given the opportunity. Arroyo has seen his minutes shrink to almost nothing, and I don’t see that trend reversing now.

Shooting Guard
Richard Hamilton & Arron Afflalo v Maurice Evans & Keyon Dooling – Rip is really going to have to work hard on offense as the Magic have a plethora of defenders to throw at him. The good news for Hamilton is that none of those guys are big time scoring threats so he can get some rest on that end. Evans is tough, athletic and a hard worker; in other words the perfect guy to chase Rip around screens all night long. I expect Mo to embrace his assignment and not back down from Hamilton one iota.

I was surprised to see Afflalo get the call against Philadelphia since he seems so tentative with the ball in his hands. That said, he does know his role and never tries to do too much. Dooling has seen most of his time at backup PG, and could play a bigger role in this series, especially if Nelson goes in the tank. Keyon’s defense and quickness make him a quality option to check either Rip or Billups as well.

Small Forward
Tayshaun Prince & Jarvis Hayes v Hedo Turkoglu & Keith Bogans – Prince’s importance to his club is still underappreciated in my opinion, even now. Tay will have some serious work to do taking Hedo out of his comfort zones. This is what I mean by important, if Prince can shut Turkoglu down, Detroit will be in very good shape. In past years I would have given Hedo a 0% chance of producing against Tay, but this season has been different. Turk needs to continue his vary his game and not settle into any patterns or else Prince will eat him up.

Hayes has been used in spot duty only thus far and I imagine that continues here. Bogans is another guy that can defend both Chaunc or Hamilton, and Keith’s toughness and strength pretty much guarantees he’ll be see plenty of action.

Power Forward
Rasheed Wallace & Jason Maxiell v Rashard Lewis & Brian Cook – Sheed versus Shard! Sorry, had to do it. These two are probably the most talented players on their respective squads, but both are also enigmas. When they come to play, look out, which is also why it’s so frustrating when they coast. If Wallace would post Lewis up all game long this probably wouldn’t even be a contest, but we all know Sheed won’t do that. R Lew has an underrated post-up game himself, but it’s his quickness off the dribble that will really give Wallace fits. These guys tend to be barometers for their teams success as well, so trying to get them off early should be a priority for both sides.

Maxiell continues to do his thing as 6th man, but I worry about who he guards here? He’s too small to check Howard, and not quick enough for Lewis or Hedo. This could turn out to be a major problem for Detroit as the series progresses. Cook is due back from a broken right hand sometime around the middle of the series, but don’t look for him to be a contributor.

Center
Antonio McDyess & Theo Ratliff v Dwight Howard & Marcin Gortat – 22.6 points, 18.2 rebounds, 3.8 blocks and 63.8% shooting. That’s what Howard did in destroying Toronto. Sorry Dyess, but you don’t stand a chance. Dwight needs to shed his David Robinson-esque choir boy attitude and just say; “Eff it! Every time I get a touch in the low post I’m putting my man in the basket with the ball.” When he does that, no one will be able to stop him. Since there’s no way Antonio can box Howard out, Dyess needs to try and draw Dwight away from the basket to keep him off the boards. Good luck with that.

Ratliff is probably the Pistons best chance to contain Howard, but Theo is really too light and slow these days to be as effective as he once was. I anticipate Sheed getting the call on Dwight in crunch time, but before that Wallace is too important to risk foul trouble. Rookie Gortat appearing in four games in round one was a shock to say the least, but he’s certainly more athletic and active than the ancient Adonal Foyle.

Coach
Flip Saunders v Stan Van Gundy – Flip is probably coaching for his job again, and he’s not very good under pressure to begin with. Saunders does his homework in terms of preparation, but getting his team to listen to him is another story all together. SVG is better at diagramming plays out of huddles, motivating his men and making adjustments in game and game-to-game. Big advantage for Orlando here.

Overall

These squads split the season series 2-2 with each club winning one at home and one on the road. As usual, the winner shot an average of 52.2% compared to the loser’s 41.8% mark. The one thing that really stuck out though is that the Pistons out rebounded the Magic by an average of eight per game. That’s a pretty hefty number in the post season. The other thing worth noting is that in their last meeting of the year on 2/19 Orlando made thirteen 3-pointers compared to Detroit’s two. That can also swing a game.

The Magic might be the least paid attention to good team in the entire NBA, but make no mistake; they have a real shot to pull the upset here. For that to happen R Lew MUST be engaged mentally and not start sulking if he misses his first couple of shots. When he is “on” Orlando is extremely tough to beat. The next thing that needs to transpire is Nelson has to be steady. Not great or spectacular, but he has to make good decisions with the ball and knock down open shots. If Jameer flames out, so will Orlando.

Big picture wise the Magic need to push the tempo and shoot 3’s in transition. That’s their strength and really isn’t the Pistons forte. When the game slows down Orlando has to pound the ball into Howard time after time after time. They have to make Detroit double, trap or whatever, but the important thing is that the Magic dictate play when they have the ball.

The Pistons really have their work cut out for them here because if they take Orlando lightly it will be tee time in Motown before you know it. The Magic also present match up problems for Detroit since they play small ball to start off and then go even smaller off the bench. Besides coming to play every night from start to finish, the Pistons need to turn this into a half court affair where they grind out each and every possession on both ends of the floor.

If Detroit can’t control the pace and tenor of the games, and Orlando gets some confidence rolling, I’m not sure the Pistons will be able to score enough points to get the job done. This is doubly concerning when you consider the fact that Detroit’s offensive has deserted them in May the past two years.

That’s why it’s gut check time for this group of Pistons. If they lose their core of players will almost certainly be broken up. Then their legacy becomes that of a one hit wonder that got some lucky breaks with opponent’s injuries when they won it all.

Prediction: I’m torn here. On one hand Detroit has a massive experience advantage which will no doubt come into play at some point. Then on the other hand you have the young Magic who match up well with the Pistons and have a dominant big man with shooters to space the floor. This is almost too close to call, so I have to go with my gut. Detroit in 7.