Pistons at Celtics
Post Season Numbers
Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Boston – 40.98%
Detroit – 43.95%
Rebound Differential
Boston – +1.29
Detroit – -.55
Point Differential
Boston – +5.43
Detroit – +4.45
Shooting
Boston – 44.38%
Detroit – 45.77%
3-Point Shooting
Boston – 34.05%
Detroit – 34.04%
Free Throw Shooting
Boston – 77.74%
Detroit – 80.43%
Turnovers
Boston – 11.50
Detroit – 12.00
Fouls
Boston – 24.50
Detroit – 22.55
Pace Factor
Boston – 88.0
Detroit – 88.1
Individual Match Ups
Point Guard
Rajon Rondo & Sam Cassell v Chauncey Billups & Rodney Stuckey – Billups missed the final two games of the second round with a strained right hamstring, but 11 full days off has him healed and ready to go for the Conference Finals. Rondo’s defense will be put to the test here as Chaunc is the engine that makes the Pistons go. But just as important for the Celts is Rajon’s offense since I’m sure Detroit will dare him to beat them. If/when Billups is not hitting from the outside he should try and post Rondo up some and distribute from there.
Cassell has been downright AWFUL this post season (33.8% shooting, 27.8% on 3’s with a 9.44 PER) taking bad shots and getting torched on defense. At 38 years old I think it’s safe to say it’s over for Sam. Stuckey did an admirable job filling in for Chaunc and should see a lot of minutes as the Pistons third guard.
Shooting Guard
Ray Allen & Eddie House v Richard Hamilton & Arron Afflalo – Allen shot just 32.8% from the field and 16.7% from three in averaging 9.3 points against Cleveland. For one of the best shooters in the history of the game that is straight up pathetic. On the flip side Rip leads his club in playoffs scoring at 21.5 ppg. Hamilton needs to continuously move without the ball and use his younger legs to try and wear Ray down over the course of the series. Expect Detroit to also continue doubling the ball out of Allen’s hands when he touches it in hopes that his cold streak continues.
House’s energy and outside shooting in the last two games versus Cleveland were huge for Boston. So much so that it makes you wonder how he lost his minutes to Cassell in the first place. Anyway, look for Eddie to return to his role as third guard for the Celts full time in this series. I don’t see Afflalo playing much here.
Small Forward
Paul Pierce & James Posey v Tayshaun Prince & Jarvis Hayes – PP played the role of savior in Game 7 last round, but something tells me he’ll have a much tougher go of it against Prince. Tay’s job will be simple, get up into Pierce’s grill right from the opening tip and be renting space in his head before the series is over. While Paul can rest some on D this round, his offense and clutch shooting will be needed more...and has to come against maybe the best perimeter defender in the entire NBA.
Posey’s defense has been big for Boston throughout the regular season and on into the playoff. The problem here is that I’m not sure who he can effectively check besides Prince. The Pistons front court is too big and their back court too quick, so his specialty is pretty much negated. Hayes might see spot duty when Tay is getting a rest but that is all.
Power Forward
Kevin Garnett & Leon Powe v Rasheed Wallace & Jason Maxiell – There can be no doubt that this is the main event, especially since these two will end up guarding each other most of the time. KG and Sheed have very similar body types, athletic ability and skills. The main differences I see in the two are that Wallace has more range on his jumper (possibly more post moves too) and Garnett is the superior rebounder. It’s difficult to say who has the advantage, but here’s to hoping they bring the best out of each other.
Powe and Maxiell are two of my favorite role players as they provide energy, rebounding, defense, hustle and the ability to finish around the rim in traffic for their respective teams. I give a slight edge to Jason though because he’s tougher and possesses a little bit more athleticism.
Center
Kendrick Perkins & P.J. Brown & Antonio McDyess & Theo Ratliff – This is an underrated match up because Perk killed Detroit on the boards in their three tilts this season to the tune of 11.7 rebounds per game (he averaged 6.1 rpg in 78 games) and 4.3 offensive rpg (up from 1.9 orpg). Dyess must do something to keep Kendrick off the glass besides trying to muscle him and a good start would be to make a few mid-range jump shots.
If not for Brown’s Game 7 performance (4-4 FG, 2-2 FT & 6 rebounds in 20 minutes) it’s questionable that the Celts are even here. So P.J. could once again play a big role for his club if Perk gets into foul trouble. I don’t expect to see Ratliff at all in this series.
Coach
Doc Rivers v Flip Saunders – This is like the rudimentary coaching class compared to the masters session out west. I guess it will be fun to see whose brain locks up more over the course of the series, but I can’t really say I’m all that excited for this one. I’ll give Flip the edge in preparation & adjustments and Doc takes motivation & respect. The deciding factor in Saunders’ favor is that he is better at diagramming plays out of huddles.
Overall
For some reason these two squads only met three times in the regular season. The Pistons won in the Gah-den on 12/19 and Boston in Motown (1/5) and at home (3/5). The highest point total for any team was 92 (C’s win at Detroit). The best two shooting nights were courtesy of Boston at home (49.3% & 46.1%). The rest were a horrific 41.9%, 40.3%, 39.2% and 36.4%...YUCK!
In their three games the Celts out rebounded the Pistons by an average of 9.67 rpg. Detroit had the upper hand in turnovers by forcing Boston into 3.67 more per game. And the stat geek’s favorite number had the Celts with a +5.67 scoring margin over the Pistons. All other metrics were practically even on a game to game basis, except 3’s where Detroit made an average of three more per game.
For the Pistons to succeed they have to hit the boards hard because there figures to be a lot of missed shots and getting out rebounded by darn near double digits just won’t cut it. Conversely Boston must figure out how to win/score on the road because Detroit is savvy enough to take at least one game in Beantown.
This series is going to feature lots of physical defense, not much scoring and will be played at a snails pace to top it off. I wish I could type different, but these games should be boring at best and excruciating at worst to watch. In a match up this tight overall each contest will likely be decided by which team can handle the pressure and still make smart plays during crunch time. Possible x-factors are Chauncey’s hammy not holding up for the duration and how much the Celtics’ energy/stamina was affected by their two series going the full seven games.
Prediction: I picked the Pistons to make the Finals back in October and I’m not backing off that now. Detroit in 6.
Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Boston – 40.98%
Detroit – 43.95%
Rebound Differential
Boston – +1.29
Detroit – -.55
Point Differential
Boston – +5.43
Detroit – +4.45
Shooting
Boston – 44.38%
Detroit – 45.77%
3-Point Shooting
Boston – 34.05%
Detroit – 34.04%
Free Throw Shooting
Boston – 77.74%
Detroit – 80.43%
Turnovers
Boston – 11.50
Detroit – 12.00
Fouls
Boston – 24.50
Detroit – 22.55
Pace Factor
Boston – 88.0
Detroit – 88.1
Individual Match Ups
Point Guard
Rajon Rondo & Sam Cassell v Chauncey Billups & Rodney Stuckey – Billups missed the final two games of the second round with a strained right hamstring, but 11 full days off has him healed and ready to go for the Conference Finals. Rondo’s defense will be put to the test here as Chaunc is the engine that makes the Pistons go. But just as important for the Celts is Rajon’s offense since I’m sure Detroit will dare him to beat them. If/when Billups is not hitting from the outside he should try and post Rondo up some and distribute from there.
Cassell has been downright AWFUL this post season (33.8% shooting, 27.8% on 3’s with a 9.44 PER) taking bad shots and getting torched on defense. At 38 years old I think it’s safe to say it’s over for Sam. Stuckey did an admirable job filling in for Chaunc and should see a lot of minutes as the Pistons third guard.
Shooting Guard
Ray Allen & Eddie House v Richard Hamilton & Arron Afflalo – Allen shot just 32.8% from the field and 16.7% from three in averaging 9.3 points against Cleveland. For one of the best shooters in the history of the game that is straight up pathetic. On the flip side Rip leads his club in playoffs scoring at 21.5 ppg. Hamilton needs to continuously move without the ball and use his younger legs to try and wear Ray down over the course of the series. Expect Detroit to also continue doubling the ball out of Allen’s hands when he touches it in hopes that his cold streak continues.
House’s energy and outside shooting in the last two games versus Cleveland were huge for Boston. So much so that it makes you wonder how he lost his minutes to Cassell in the first place. Anyway, look for Eddie to return to his role as third guard for the Celts full time in this series. I don’t see Afflalo playing much here.
Small Forward
Paul Pierce & James Posey v Tayshaun Prince & Jarvis Hayes – PP played the role of savior in Game 7 last round, but something tells me he’ll have a much tougher go of it against Prince. Tay’s job will be simple, get up into Pierce’s grill right from the opening tip and be renting space in his head before the series is over. While Paul can rest some on D this round, his offense and clutch shooting will be needed more...and has to come against maybe the best perimeter defender in the entire NBA.
Posey’s defense has been big for Boston throughout the regular season and on into the playoff. The problem here is that I’m not sure who he can effectively check besides Prince. The Pistons front court is too big and their back court too quick, so his specialty is pretty much negated. Hayes might see spot duty when Tay is getting a rest but that is all.
Power Forward
Kevin Garnett & Leon Powe v Rasheed Wallace & Jason Maxiell – There can be no doubt that this is the main event, especially since these two will end up guarding each other most of the time. KG and Sheed have very similar body types, athletic ability and skills. The main differences I see in the two are that Wallace has more range on his jumper (possibly more post moves too) and Garnett is the superior rebounder. It’s difficult to say who has the advantage, but here’s to hoping they bring the best out of each other.
Powe and Maxiell are two of my favorite role players as they provide energy, rebounding, defense, hustle and the ability to finish around the rim in traffic for their respective teams. I give a slight edge to Jason though because he’s tougher and possesses a little bit more athleticism.
Center
Kendrick Perkins & P.J. Brown & Antonio McDyess & Theo Ratliff – This is an underrated match up because Perk killed Detroit on the boards in their three tilts this season to the tune of 11.7 rebounds per game (he averaged 6.1 rpg in 78 games) and 4.3 offensive rpg (up from 1.9 orpg). Dyess must do something to keep Kendrick off the glass besides trying to muscle him and a good start would be to make a few mid-range jump shots.
If not for Brown’s Game 7 performance (4-4 FG, 2-2 FT & 6 rebounds in 20 minutes) it’s questionable that the Celts are even here. So P.J. could once again play a big role for his club if Perk gets into foul trouble. I don’t expect to see Ratliff at all in this series.
Coach
Doc Rivers v Flip Saunders – This is like the rudimentary coaching class compared to the masters session out west. I guess it will be fun to see whose brain locks up more over the course of the series, but I can’t really say I’m all that excited for this one. I’ll give Flip the edge in preparation & adjustments and Doc takes motivation & respect. The deciding factor in Saunders’ favor is that he is better at diagramming plays out of huddles.
Overall
For some reason these two squads only met three times in the regular season. The Pistons won in the Gah-den on 12/19 and Boston in Motown (1/5) and at home (3/5). The highest point total for any team was 92 (C’s win at Detroit). The best two shooting nights were courtesy of Boston at home (49.3% & 46.1%). The rest were a horrific 41.9%, 40.3%, 39.2% and 36.4%...YUCK!
In their three games the Celts out rebounded the Pistons by an average of 9.67 rpg. Detroit had the upper hand in turnovers by forcing Boston into 3.67 more per game. And the stat geek’s favorite number had the Celts with a +5.67 scoring margin over the Pistons. All other metrics were practically even on a game to game basis, except 3’s where Detroit made an average of three more per game.
For the Pistons to succeed they have to hit the boards hard because there figures to be a lot of missed shots and getting out rebounded by darn near double digits just won’t cut it. Conversely Boston must figure out how to win/score on the road because Detroit is savvy enough to take at least one game in Beantown.
This series is going to feature lots of physical defense, not much scoring and will be played at a snails pace to top it off. I wish I could type different, but these games should be boring at best and excruciating at worst to watch. In a match up this tight overall each contest will likely be decided by which team can handle the pressure and still make smart plays during crunch time. Possible x-factors are Chauncey’s hammy not holding up for the duration and how much the Celtics’ energy/stamina was affected by their two series going the full seven games.
Prediction: I picked the Pistons to make the Finals back in October and I’m not backing off that now. Detroit in 6.
posted by D$ at 9:28 PM
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