Jazz at Rockets

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Houston – 43.25% (2nd)
Utah – 46.07% (17th)

Rebound Differential
Houston – +3.97 (2nd)
Utah – +3.07 (4th)

Point Differential
Houston – +4.68 (9th)
Utah – +6.87 (4th)

Shooting
Houston – 44.83% (21st)
Utah – 49.74% (2nd)

3-Point Shooting
Houston – 34.2% (26th)
Utah – 37.2% (10th)

Free Throw Shooting
Houston – 72.62% (25th)
Utah – 75.94% (16th)

Turnovers
Houston – 13.72 (9th)
Utah – 14.63 (19th)

Fouls
Houston – 19.62 (6th)
Utah – 24.02 (30th)

Pace Factor
Houston – 92.9 (21st)
Utah – 95.6 (11th)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Rafer Alston & Bobby Jackson v Deron Williams & Ronnie Price – Alston is expected to miss the first two games of the series with a strained right hamstring. This truly hurts the Rox because Rafer had really come into his own in terms of running a team this season. Even when Skip comes back I doubt he’ll be 100%. D Wil is dealing with a bruised tailbone himself, but should still dominate this match up thoroughly. None of Houston’s PG’s have anywhere near the size/quickness combination necessary to deal with Williams, including deep bench man Aaron Brooks.

Jackson’s best days are long, long gone and he’s a serious downgrade from Alston as a starter. Brooks is no better as a backup either, as his game is very immature at this point. Price is an instant offense energizer type who does a decent job in the few minutes he gets behind Deron.

Shooting Guard
Tracy McGrady & Luther Head v Ronnie Brewer & Kyle Korver – Mr. “Never Been Out of the First Round” is dealing with a strained left shoulder as the playoffs arrive. Not good since the Rox will need T-Mac to carry them scoring wise with Yao Ming out (broken left foot). McGrady is going to be looked to by his teammates to get them big buckets in both crunch time and when the shot clock is running down. Brewer possesses the athleticism and tenacity to bother Tracy on defense. Ronnie is also very active moving without the ball on offense, so T-Mac can’t rest on that end.

Both bench guys fill the role of 3-point shooting specialist for their clubs. Korver’s importance to the Jazz has been well documented (38-12 since his arrival), but with Rafer out Houston could need Head’s shooting just as much.

Small Forward
Shane Battier & Steve Novak v Andrei Kirilenko & Matt Harpring – Battier makes for the third Rocket to be dealing with an injury (strained right hamstring). This is unfortunate for Houston since Shane is probably their best option to contain D Wil. Utah jumps to another level when Kirilenko’s head is in the game and he’s shooting his jumper with confidence. Look for AK-47 to log a lot of minutes checking McGrady.

I don’t expect Novak to see much time unless no other Rocket is making 3-pointers. Harpring doesn’t move as well as he used to, but he’s still a gritty agitator with a reliable mid-range jumper.

Power Forward
Luis Scola & Chuck Hayes v Carlos Boozer & Paul Millsap – This is the under the radar marquee match up in my mind. Scola and Boozer actually do a lot of the same things. They move well without the ball, can make a mid-range J, score in the post and rebound. I’m hoping they end up defending each other too because it will be very intriguing to watch. Carlos has the strength advantage and Luis the quickness, so foul trouble is a possibility for both.

Hayes’ defensive ability could be extremely important for Houston with Yao out. Millsap is currently suffering from a jammed left big toe and his explosiveness to rebounds and loose balls alike isn’t right.

Center
Dikembe Mutombo & Carl Landry v Memo Okur & Jarron Collins – If Deke can’t guard Boozer then I don’t expect to see him much this series because I know he can’t check Okur. No one is probably happier that Yao Ming isn’t playing than Memo, even though the Turkish national did a fine job on Yao last year. Okur’s game has really been rounding into form lately, and when he’s on from deep the Jazz are very tough to beat.

Landry has been huge for the Rox since Yao went down aligning with Scola in a “small ball” front court. Carl is very active, not afraid to mix it up down low and has a nice touch around the basket out to mid-range. Collins is unlikely to see anything more than spot minutes.

Coach
Rick Adelman v Jerry Sloan – This in an old school clash that I’m frankly excited to see unfold. Sloan is a master at preparation, getting his squad to execute on offense and diagramming plays in huddles. Adelman’s approach is more malleable lending him to be better at adjustments, both in game and game-to-game. With Jerry you always know what you’re going to get, so it’s up to Rick to find the cracks and take advantage. Too close to call…

Overall

Even though Houston has home court advantage again as these clubs meet for the second straight year, I’m not optimistic about their chances. For openers they are going to miss all the easy buckets they get by just throwing the ball into Yao in the low post and letting him work. Beyond that though, three of their next four most important players are also dinged up. I just don’t see how home court will be enough to overcome all that.

As long as Utah executes on offense they should be fine, but I still need to see them work on a few things in this series. First off they need to match the Rockets intensity on defense. As the playoffs go on the Jazz are going to really need to step up their D and there’s no better place to start then the first round. Next they need to at least become viable on the road. I’m not saying they have to win every game away from Salt Lake, but staying close and giving themselves a chance, rather than getting blown out, would be nice.

Prediction: Not as competitive as most think. Utah in 5.