4.15.2008

Hawks at Celtics

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Boston – 41.88% (1st)
Atlanta – 46.11% (19th)

Rebound Differential
Boston – +3.06 (4th)
Atlanta – +1.26 (9th)

Point Differential
Boston – +10.24 (1st)
Atlanta – -1.48 (18th)

Shooting
Boston – 47.53% (4th)
Atlanta – 45.37% (16th)

3-Point Shooting
Boston – 38.0% (5th)
Atlanta – 35.7% (16th)

Free Throw Shooting
Boston – 77.07% (8th)
Atlanta – 77.25% (7th)

Turnovers
Boston – 15.22 (27th)
Atlanta – 14.92 (24th)

Fouls
Boston – 22.71 (25th)
Atlanta – 20.52 (11th)

Pace Factor
Boston – 93.3 (19th)
Atlanta – 93.5 (18th)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Rajon Rondo & Sam Cassell v Mike Bibby & Acie Law IV – While Bibby has a huge edge in post season experience over Rondo, Rajon’s quickness, length and defensive ability should bother Mike quite a bit. Bibby is by far the most playoff tested Hawk, so his leadership will be key, but for Atlanta to have any chance Mike *must* make open shots. All Rondo needs to do is play tough D, keep everyone involved and not turn the ball over.

Backup PG isn’t even a contest. Sam I Am has it all over Acie in every department except athleticism.

Shooting Guard
Ray Allen & Eddie House v Joe Johnson & Salim Stoudamire – Ray-Ray will have his work cut out for him checking JJ. In fact, if Allen tires or can’t contain the Hawks #1 scoring option, look for Pierce to step up to the challenge. Johnson won’t have it easy regardless of who’s on him though since the best defensive team in the league’s entire game plan will be designed to stop him. Ray’s offensive production might not be up to par, but if he does a good job on JJ it won’t matter.

Both bench guys are shooting specialists, and House is the better of the two.

Small Forward
Paul Pierce & James Posey v Josh Smith & Josh Childress – J Smoove is going to have to prove his mettle as a one-on-one defender in his playoff debut because PP is a very tough customer on offense. I think Paul will be best served utilizing his savvy mid-range game since Smith’s athleticism probably will take away Pierce’s driving and post up opportunities. Josh needs to be aggressive with own offense so Paul can’t rest on that end. I’d recommend Smoove forget his jump shot and strictly take it to the hoop and try to get some fouls on PP.

Posey has been a seriously underrated addition to the Celtics, and Childress is one of the most underappreciated players in the enitre NBA. The two of them really provide many of the same things too. Like sticky defense, timely shooting and hustle plays. Josh is probably the better of the two right now, but James has the edge in experience.

Power Forward
Kevin Garnett & Leon Powe v Marvin Williams & Solomon Jones – Ok, this is where it gets real ugly. KG is known for his intensity while Marvin tends to take a night off here and there. Williams’ defense is seriously lacking and Garnett is the likely Defensive Player of the Year. As long as Kevin is patient on offense he should have a field day with Marvin.

Long time readers know that I’m big Leon Powe fan, and since Jones is unlikely to play…advantage Boston.

Center
Kendrick Perkins & Glen Davis v Al Horford & Zaza Pachulia – This is actually a very intriguing match up of two young pivot men. Perk doesn’t do much of anything on offense, but he’s good post defender, rebounder and shot blocker. The same can be said about Horford, except Al has a nice post up game and touch around the rim to go with those other attributes. Look for Kendrick to try and muscle Horford off his spots and disrupt his flow. How Al responds under the bright lights of the playoffs will tell us a lot about his future.

Davis and Pachulia are their respective club’s enforcers/hard foul takers. Both have the size to be decent defenders and neither is a complete stiff on offense.

Coach
Doc Rivers v Mike Woodson – Woody is lucky to have a job, much less be in the playoffs. Seriously, I’ve never seen anything from Woodson that suggests he’s even a mediocre coach. I’m not a big fan of Doc’s either, but he’s clearly the better coach here. (Doubt I’ll be typing that again.)

Overall

Not much needs to be said here other than look at the numbers. The Celtics defend, shoot and rebound better. They also have more experienced players and a better coach. For Atlanta to have a chance to even stay close in a game they’ll have to be perfect on both ends for 48 minutes.

Prediction: Boston is on a mission and will take care of business in an orderly fashion. Celtics in 4.

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