Mid-Season Report

Now that the Atlanta Hawks have finally played their 41st game (1/29) it’s time for the fifth anniversary edition of the ‘Mid-Season Report’. It seems like I type this every year, but the West is once again far superior to the East…and it’s not even close. There are 11 teams in the West that would easily make the playoffs in the East. That said, after the top two, the East is completely wide open with only one club virtually eliminated. The second half of the season should be intense since all but five squads in the entire league have a realistic shot at the post season.

Let’s get it started already…

(*Teams I had making the playoffs before the season)

EAST

1. *Boston Celtics (35-8)

Good – Their defense is by far the best in the association with an opponent’s field goal percentage [OPPFG%] of 41.86%.

Bad – Lack of depth + giving 110% every night = a playoff breakdown.

Rookie – Glen Davis. I’m not as enamored with him as most. He’s much more “Tractor” Traylor than Charles Barkley to my eyes.

Outlook – The C’s should have no problem maintaining the best record in the league. However, there are a few teams in the East that match up well defensively with their “Big 3” in a seven game series. It’s up to coach Doc Rivers to get them to ease off the gas a little so they have something left for the two month post season.

2. *Detroit Pistons (32-13)

Good – Coach Flip Saunders finally giving his young players a chance.

Bad – After a fast start they are slowly but surely reverting to their indifferent attitude.

Rookie – Rodney Stuckey. Tough and quick. Can get into the lane at will and has a solid mid-range game. Needs to work on his decision making.

Outlook – The Pistons are doing all the right things in terms of limiting their starters’ minutes and developing a reliable bench. Both will serve them well in the playoffs. They are still a top flight defensive team that knows how to win close games. So yeah, I’m feeling pretty good about my pre-season pick to represent the East in the Finals.

3. *Orlando Magic (28-18)

Good – They defend (8th in OPPFG% at 44.67%) and can win on the road (17-10).

Bad – Jameer Nelson losing his confidence after a decent start to the season.

Rookie – Marcin Gortat. Has yet to see any court time, and I don’t watch the D-League.

Outlook – The Magic are a very up and down group, and it’s not because of lack of effort either. It’s more that guys like Nelson, Rashard Lewis and even Dwight Howard have been inconsistent. Most of that can be blamed on youth, but if they truly want to contend that needs to be shored up. Another competent big man would help tremendously too.

4. Washington Wizards (24-19)

Good – They are 6th in OPPFG% (44.63%) and 10th in rebound differential [REBDIF] at +1.53.

Bad – Gilbert Arenas (left knee) only appearing in eight games.

Rookie – Nick Young. Has the talent to be a scorer, but hasn’t shown the ability to do anything else. Questionable basketball IQ [BBIQ] and intensity.

Outlook – I’ll be the first to admit that I was wrong about the Wiz. Coach Eddie Jordan finally has them defending and rebounding like a playoff team should. Their ball movement on offense is also much improved with Antonio Daniels running the show rather than Gil. It’s going to be interesting to see how they play when/if GA returns.

5. *Cleveland Cavaliers (24-19)

Good – Their big man rotation (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden & Anderson Varejao) continues to be one of the best in the NBA.

Bad – Larry Hughes pouting his way to a career low shooting percentage (34.9%).

Rookie – None.

Outlook – The Cavs are just starting to find their groove defensively, but the fact remains that they rely on LeBron James to do far too much on offense night in and night out. If they are to contend, GM Danny Ferry needs to make a move to upgrade their inconsistent outside shooting as well as addressing their lack of playmakers in the back court.

6. *Toronto Raptors (24-20)

Good – They are the best 3-point shooting team in the league (41.6%).

Bad – Jorge Garbajosa (left ankle) having to shut it down for good after seven games.

Rookie – Jamario Moon. A solid defender, rebounder and “team” player. Extremely athletic but needs to improve his jump shot, especially from 3-point land.

Outlook – The Raps deserve a lot of credit for hanging in there without two starters (Garbo & T.J. Ford) for most of the season while Andrea Bargnani regresses. Their success is based on long distance shooting, ball movement on offense and great team chemistry. As long as they are healthy T-Dot will be dangerous in the post season.

7. Atlanta Hawks (18-23)

Good – Sixth man Josh Childress is the consummate “glue guy” and will be a highly sought after free agent this summer.

Bad – They are 29th in 3-point shooting (32.7%).

Rookie – Al Horford. Can rebound, defend, block shots and score with his back to the basket out to mid-range. He’ll be a star if he improves his footwork and post moves.

Outlook – The Hawks play hard every night and always compete until the final horn sounds. Combine that with their defense, and they are never out of a game. Yet I’m only willing to say that Atlanta is “East good”. They struggle to score a lot of nights and their PG and interior play is still suspect. They have a chance, but I see them falling just short.

8. *New Jersey Nets (19-26)

Good – Josh Boone making the most of his opportunity as a starter by averaging a near double-double in January (10.7 ppg & 9.9 rpg).

Bad – Jason Kidd succumbing to Vince Carter’s blasé attitude.

Rookie – Sean Williams. Excellent shot blocker with great length and athleticism. Has zero moves on offense and his intensity wanes. The second coming of Sam Dalembert.

Outlook – The Nets are at a crossroads right now. The can dig in and work to get it right because when Nenad Krstic (left knee) gets back he and Boone should form a nice tandem up front to go along with their “Big 3”. The other option is to continue on the path to oblivion where President Rod Thorn reaches for the dynamite. It’s up to Kidd.

Indiana Pacers (19-27)

Good – Danny Granger stepping up to average career highs in points (17.5 ppg), rebounds (5.9 rpg), assists (1.9 apg), steals (1.0 spg) & blocks (1.0 bpg).

Bad – Jermaine O’Neal (left knee) and Jamaal Tinsley (left knee) both coming down with their annual injuries early.

Rookie – None.

Outlook – Coach Jim O’Brien is good, but he’s not a miracle worker. You take away arguably the best two Pacers and it’s only a matter of time before the lack of talent ends up costing them. They’ll hang around the outskirts of the playoff picture in the East because of their defense, but in the end Indy will be lottery bound.

*Chicago Bulls (18-26)

Good – Interim coach Jim Boylan promoting Thabo Sefolosha to starting SG and moving Ben Gordon to sixth man.

Bad – They are the worst shooting team in the entire association (42.09%).

Rookie – Joakim Noah. Hard worker and big time hustler. Good passer, rebounder and shot blocker. Limited offensively and needs to bulk up, but should have a long career.

Outlook – The Bulls are not out of it yet, but make no mistake they need Luol Deng (left Achilles) healthy to qualify for the post season. Boylan’s next biggest change to the rotation, after what I mentioned above, was making Noah the first big man off the bench. Chicago’s D will come around, and if Kirk Hinrich can find his stroke, they will be fine.

Charlotte Bobcats (18-27)

Good – Gerald Wallace stepping up to become the leader of this team.

Bad – Rookie coach Sam Vincent may be in over his head.

Rookie – Jared Dudley. Smart well rounded player, but doesn’t have a go-to skill or elite athleticism. Could carve out a niche for himself if he works on his game and fitness.

Outlook – The Cats squandered the easy part of their schedule and now face a closing stretch of 24 of their last 37 games on the road. Ouch! So even though another trip to the lottery is all but guaranteed, there’s still have work to do. Ray Felton can learn how to run a team for starters, and Emeka Okafor can develop a go-to post move on offense.

Milwaukee Bucks (18-28)

Good – Andrew Bogut proving he is a legitimate starting center in the NBA.

Bad – They are 28th in OPPFG% (46.81%).

Rookie – Yi Jianlian. Good athlete with a nice touch from the outside and a high BBIQ. Is an able defender, but needs to improve strength, conditioning and rebounding.

Outlook – The problem with the Bucks is simple, they don’t play any defense at all. It’s easy to blame coach Larry Krystkowiak, but when you look at their roster they don’t have any great individual defenders. Their only “good” defenders are Bogut, Desmond Mason and Charlie Bell. This is exactly why GM Larry Harris’ days are numbered.

Philadelphia 76ers (17-28)

Good – They are 4th in REBDIF (+2.86).

Bad – They are the worst 3-point shooting team in league (31.9%) and many D-League and Euroleague clubs boast better SG depth charts than Willie Green and Rodney Carney.

Rookie – Jason Smith. A decent athlete with a nice touch from the outside. Plays tough, but tends to be a little mechanical on both ends of the floor. Must bulk up and develop some low post moves to reach his potential.

Outlook – Their defense and overall effort has been slipping, and I’m starting to see some seeds of discontent sprouting up. Most notably in Andre Iguodala. AI2 has had some pretty bad body language and facial expressions lately, and don’t think his teammates haven’t noticed. If this squad does quit coach Maurice Cheeks might not last the season.

New York Knicks (14-30)

Good – Jamal Crawford averaging a career high 19.8 ppg.

Bad – They are the dead last in OPPFG% (47.45%).

Rookie – Wilson Chandler. Extremely long and athletic, but also very raw.

Outlook – Believe it or not, the Knicks have actually been showing some signs of life recently. Thanks in large part to team cancer Hall of Famer Stephon Marbury being out with a bad left ankle. NY has two main problems, interior defense and outside shooting. If one or both of those can be remedied a playoff push is not out of the question.

*Miami Heat (9-34)

Good – President/coach Pat Riley hasn’t quit yet.

Bad – They are 27th in REBDIF (-2.90) and 25th in OPPFG% (46.26%). Oh yeah, and they had a 15 game losing streak.

Rookie – Daequan Cook. Has a nice touch on his jumper from mid-range to out deep. A good athlete, but a horrendous defender with a suspect BBIQ. Could be a player in time.

Outlook – With Shaquille O’Neal (left hip) out and looking more washed up by the second, and Dwyane Wade slowed by his own injuries (right shoulder, left knee), things are exceedingly bleak for the Heat. Their prospects for next two seasons are no better since they are almost over the salary cap with four players. Hope the ring was worth it.

WEST

1. *New Orleans Hornets (32-12)

Good – The chemistry their starters share has led them to the pinnacle of the West.

Bad – A thin bench is their Achilles heel.

Rookie – Julian Wright. Very athletic with good length, but afraid to shoot and very tentative with the ball. Needs a lot of work.

Outlook – Any team with Chris Paul running the show is going to be good, but the Hornets are more than just CP3. They play tough defense, rebound, share the ball on offense and Byron Scott might be the most underappreciated coach in the NBA. Only an injury to their top 5 can slow them down. They are definitely for real.

2. *Phoenix Suns (33-13)

Good – Grant Hill has fit in well and they are still an offensive juggernaut.

Bad – They are dead last in REBDIF (-6.02).

Rookie – D.J Strawberry. A super-athlete without much basketball skill. He’ll have to become a defensive stopper to stick.

Outlook – There are two schools of thought on the Suns these days. First is that there is some kind of internal strife going on that is affecting their chemistry. Next is that they have developed a “cruise control” gear and are now coasting on some nights. Whatever the case, I get the feeling that their window of opportunity has passed them by.

3. *Dallas Mavericks (31-13)

Good – They haven’t played their best ball and are still one of the top clubs in the West.

Bad – It’s dangerous to get in the habit of “flipping the switch”.

Rookie – Nick Fazekas. Has played a total of five minutes, and I haven’t seen any of them.

Outlook – The Mavs are so deep and versatile it almost isn’t fair. Coach Avery Johnson can mix and match guys to play any style needed on a given night. Their defensive intensity isn’t anywhere near as consistent as it needs to be, but I expect Avery to start cracking the whip after the All-Star break. Still the Western favorites in my mind.

4. *Utah Jazz (27-18)

Good – Memo Okur beginning to regain his form.

Bad – Digging themselves into a hole by losing 11 of 14 games from 12/4 to 12/29.

Rookie – Kyrylo Fesenko. Mobile big man with good size and toughness. Willing defender who can rebound and block shots, but his footwork and post moves need work.

Outlook – The Jazz hit a rough patch when Okur wasn’t himself, but they have rebounded nicely since. The significance of Kyle Korver’s addition can’t be underestimated either. I’m still very high on Utah and expect them to win the Northwest Division. They are just starting to gel as a unit and the sky’s the limit for them if they improve their defense.

5. *Los Angeles Lakers (28-15)

Good – The steadying influence Derek Fisher has provided on offense from the PG position has been invaluable. His 3-point shooting (42.9%) has been huge also.

Bad – Losing Andrew Bynum (left knee) and Trevor Ariza (right foot) for two months each.

Rookie – Javaris Crittenton. Lightning quick with a scorer’s mentality. Can get by anybody off the dribble. Must improve decision making, passing and defense.

Outlook – Injuries combined with a tough schedule means the Lakers are about to take a tumble in the standings. It’s a shame too because the five of Jordan Farmar (with Fisher as the closer), Kobe Bryant, Ariza, Lamar Odom and Bynum was looking outstanding. If they can get healthy and qualify for the post season, no one will want to play them.

6. *San Antonio Spurs (28-16)

Good – They continue to be one the best fourth quarter clubs in the entire association.

Bad – They are 19th in OPPFG% (45.74%), which might be good for some, but is really bad for them.

Rookie – Ian Mahinmi. The young Frenchman is ultra-raw, with little to no offensive skill. Very long and athletic though. A possible defensive/rebounding specialist.

Outlook – The Spurs looked old and unathletic at this time last year, and they still won the title. So while it’s not time to panic just yet, their defensive statistics being down across the board is a little worrisome. Most troubling though is Tony Parker’s continued lack of explosion due to bones spurs in his left heel. Repeating is tough for a reason.

7. Portland Trail Blazers (26-18)

Good – They are 5th in OPPFG% (44.38%).

Bad – I’m going to keep harping on this until it happens, Sergio Rodriguez not getting 15-20 minutes a night at backup PG…no matter how he performs.

Rookie – Taurean Green. Quick but undersized. A shoot first PG that can’t create for himself or others. Not an NBA player.

Outlook – The Blazers have great chemistry on both offense & defense and know how to win close games in the fourth quarter…which is rather shocking for the youngest team in league. Most of the credit for that goes to Brandon Roy. He is special and always seems to make the right play in big situations. Watch out Denver, here comes Rip City!

8. *Denver Nuggets (26-18)

Good – The emergence of Linas Kleiza as an offensive weapon off the bench has improved their versatility.

Bad – They are 26th in 3-point shooting (33.1%).

Rookie – None.

Outlook – I’ve always been skeptical about this group of Nugs, and I’ve seen nothing from them yet to dissuade my opinion. Basically, when the games become half court oriented they struggle to get good shots on offense and execute their rotations on defense. Their playoff hopes are tenuous at best, even with all their talent.

Golden State Warriors (27-19)

Good – Baron Davis has stayed healthy and is playing some of his best ball ever (career high PER of 21.47).

Bad – They are 29th in REBDIF (-5.21).

Rookie – Marco Belinelli. Tissue paper soft and looks scared out there. Needs to take it to the basket more and improve his strength. Strictly a spot up shooter right now.

Outlook – The Warriors can beat anybody when they are making their 3-pointers. Conversely, they can lose to anybody when they are not. Their defense and rebounding are just too weak to carry them when their shots aren’t falling. For GS to really be a threat in the playoffs Vice President Chris Mullin needs to acquire some interior scoring

*Houston Rockets (25-20)

Good – They are 1st in REBDIF (+3.37) and 2nd in OPPFG% (43.87%).

Bad – Tracy McGrady already missing 15 games with mainly left knee trouble.

Rookie – Luis Scola. High BBIQ, good hands, nice post moves and a good touch out to mid-range. Quality team defender, but needs to improve his individual defense.

Outlook – The Rockets struggled out of the gate with a new coach, a fresh system and injuries. To me their post season chances come down to how coach Rick Adelman utilizes the depth at his disposal. So far he’s done a pretty mediocre job, almost fighting it. If Adelman embraces the versatility he’s been given Houston will be very dangerous.

Sacramento Kings (19-24)

Good – Mike Bibby, Kevin Martin and Ron Artest are finally all healthy at the same time.

Bad – Injuries to those three basically ruined their season.

Rookie – Spencer Hawes. Has plenty of post moves and isn’t afraid to mix it up inside. Not very athletic and needs to bulk up and improve his defense.

Outlook – Rookie coach Reggie Theus did a fantastic job of keeping them afloat while learning the ropes at the same time. A healthy bunch of Kings would be the 3rd or 4th best team in the East and give the West 11 legitimate playoff squads. Unfortunately Sacto is likely relegated to playing the role of spoiler for the remainder of the season now.

Los Angeles Clippers (13-28)

Good – Chris Kaman’s improved focus and intensity leading to career highs in points (17.2 ppg), rebounds (14.0 rpg), blocks (3.03 bpg) and assists (1.9 apg).

Bad – They are 28th in REBDIF (-3.09).

Rookie – Al Thornton. Explosive first step with a nice touch from mid-range out to 3-point land. Has the tools to do other things, but not the desire. A volume shooter/scorer.

Outlook – The Clips still play hard on most nights, but they just don’t seem like a real happy group. You’ve got owner Donald Sterling and coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. bickering in the media. Then there’s the annual talk about trading Corey Maggette, and don’t forget Sam Cassell’s possible contract buyout. They should be better next season though.

Memphis Grizzlies (13-32)

Good – Rudy Gay establishing himself as the go-to-guy of this club.

Bad – Darko Milicic reverting to his disappointing ways after a decent start.

Rookie – Juan Carlos Navarro. Can always create his own offense and not afraid to take and make big shots. Questionable decision maker and plays ZERO defense.

Outlook – The Griz play no defense (29th in OPPFG% at 47.40%) and rarely bring the intensity necessary to win games. Gay has improved, and rookie Mike Conley Jr. has shown some promise, but the rest of the team seems largely indifferent. I am sorry to say that rookie coach Mark Iavaroni is to blame for most of it too.

Seattle SuperSonics (10-35)

Good – Wally Szczerbiak looks ready to contribute on a contending team.

Bad – They just lost 14 straight games.

Rookie – Kevin Durant. Has good range, a nice touch and a quick release. Needs to bulk up and diversify his offensive game. Not much of a defender, rebounder or playmaker.

Outlook – The Sonics are a disaster. They get nothing from young centers Johan Petro, Robert Swift and Mouhamed Sene. They don’t get much more from veteran PG’s Earl Watson, Luke Ridnour and Delonte West. They have absolutely no idea how to play in crunch time and there are already rumblings of discontent with coach P.J. Carlesimo.

Minnesota Timberwolves (8-36)

Good – Al Jefferson putting up career highs in points (21.1 ppg) and rebounds (12.0 rpg).

Bad – They are 27th in OPPFG% (46.71%).

Rookie – Corey Brewer. Long and athletic with the desire to be a lock down defender. Has no game whatsoever on offense. Questionable BBIQ too.

Outlook – After Big Al, and maybe Rashad McCants and Craig Smith, the Wolves have nothing (Ryan Gomes can play, but he is sooo outta there after the season). Some people like Randy Foye (has played in one game because of a stress reaction in his left kneecap), but he’s never shown me anything. To top it off, their salary cap situation is a mess too.

Mid-Season Awards

Defensive Player – Kevin Garnett (Boston)

Sixth Man – Manu Ginobili (San Antonio)

Coach – Byron Scott (New Orleans)

Rookie – Al Horford (Atlanta)

MVP – LeBron James (Cleveland)

All NBA

PG – Chris Paul (New Orleans)
SG – Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
SF – LeBron James (Cleveland)
PF – Kevin Garnett (Boston)
C – Dwight Howard (Orlando)