Western Conference Preview

There’s no doubt about it, the West is still the best. Of the seven teams that I think have a legitimate shot to win it all, five of them reside in the Western Conference. That’s right East fans, I did imply that two of your clubs are actually in the mix for once.

Not only did I have San Antonio making the Finals last season (running my streak of at least one pre-season prediction making the Finals to three straight years and six out of the last seven), but I also had the Spurs winning it all. Picking the NBA Champion in the pre-season hadn’t happened for since the ’01-02 campaign (Lakers), and my broken arm is almost healed from patting myself on the back.

Without further ado…

1. San Antonio Spurs – Something tells me these boys are going to be focused right from the start of the season. I know that’s a little out of the norm for SA, but I get the feeling – no matter how many cliché quotes they regurgitate – that the Spurs want to repeat BADLY. As far as their legacy goes, it’s really the only thing that’s missing. Of concern though is their collective age, mileage and lack of overall athleticism. Regardless, you know this squad will be in the thick of it come playoff time.

Eyes On – Ime Udoka. He’s a defensive stopper on the wings and can make an open 3. In other words, he’s Bruce Bowen’s replacement. GM R.C. Buford strikes again!

Now or Never – Francisco Elson. After losing his starting job to Fabricio Oberto during last year’s playoffs, it’s on Cisco to improve his consistency if he wants a new contract.

2. Houston Rockets – No team was more active in the off-season as new GM Daryl Morey wasted no time putting his stamp on the Rockets. This Houston group has so much depth that they remind me of those Portland clubs of the late 90’s. New coach Rick Adelman was brought in to fix their offense while not letting their D fall apart. So if Adelman is able to take advantage of all the talent at his disposal, while keeping everyone happy with their minutes, the Rockets are going to be extremely dangerous.

Eyes On – Luis Scola. The Argentine rookie does all the little things down low and knows how to play the “team” game. Scola finally gives Yao Ming a competent sidekick up front.

Now or Never – Bonzi Wells. After his agent shafted him, Bonzi showed up grumpy & out of shape and never did anything in Houston last year. This is his last chance for a new contract.

3. Phoenix Suns (4th best record) – I wrestled big time with where to place the Suns. On one hand I hated their summer moves. Then on the other it’s hard not to see them having similar success barring injuries. So what if they are paper thin up front and still don’t have a decent backup PG? Coach Mike D’Antoni will just roll the ball out to Steve Nash and only go seven deep, but Phoenix will still be the greatest show on earth. This squad will be judged on their post season, and I’m not optimistic about their chances.

Eyes On – Shawn Marion. After feeling underappreciated for years “Trix” finally asked to be traded. While I doubt he gets dealt, Marion might be the type to pout on the court.

Now or Never – Boris Diaw. His PER dropped from 17.31 to 13.02 after he showed up to camp bloated last season. Diaw must do something to prove he’s not a contract year wonder.

4. Utah Jazz (5th best record) – On paper I love the look of this crew, but they have too many questions for me to rate them higher. Will Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer and Memo Okur all produce like they did last season? Will sixth man Matt Harpring’s right knee hold up? Will Andrei Kirilenko ever stop whining and become the AK-47 of yore? If the answers to those queries produce more yes’s than no’s, then the Jazz will be serious contenders for the crown.

Eyes On – Ronnie Brewer. If he improved his jump shot in the off-season Brewer should fill Utah’s SG vacancy and inject their starting lineup with some much needed athleticism.

Now or Never – Gordan Giricek. He normally likes to play hard about once every ten days or so. I wonder if that changes in his contract year?

5. Dallas Mavericks (3rd best record) – I don’t think the regular season is going to mean all that much to the Mavs to this year. I’m sure coach Avery Johnson would disagree, but the players know all that matters is how they perform come playoff time. Dallas is still an elite team, but since they were ousted in the first round after a 67 win regular season I see them coasting a lot more this year. The core of the club is basically the same, so I expect them to play with a major chip on their collective shoulder come the post season.

Eyes On – Devin Harris. He’s super quick, a good play maker and an elite defender. Harris is really just a consistent outside shot away from being a star.

Now or Never – Brandon Bass. Did absolutely nothing in two seasons with the Hornets, but the Mavs have no one else behind Dirk Nowitzki, so Mr. Bass better carpe diem.

6. Los Angeles Lakers – I had been feeling pretty good about my boy’s chances until owner Jerry Buss decided to open his yap and say he “would certainly listen” to trade offers for Kobe Bryant. It’s plain to see that former GM Jerry West was responsible for keeping this dysfunctional ship afloat all those years. Anyway, the Lakers are actually a very deep and versatile group that might be able to win the East. LA could still surprise a lot of people this season if coach Phil Jackson can get them to play any defense at all.

Eyes On – Andrew Bynum. There’s no physical tool that this 20 year old center doesn’t possess. The question is all upstairs with him. As in, how bad does he want to be great?

Now or Never – Kwame Brown. I’m not sure he’s even capable of your typical NBA contract year push, but if he is, buyers beware this summer.

7. Denver Nuggets – If you saw Allen Iverson chucking up bad shots in last year’s playoffs, you know why I refer to this squad as “Team tick, tick, tick…” I doubt there’s ever been a more combustible mix of talent on the same team in league history, including the Jail Gangstas. I have no clue how coach George Karl is going to control this bunch? On the court the Nugs must defend and share the ball to reach their potential, but who really cares about any of that? Let’s just get to their first media fueled brouhaha already!

Eyes On – Kenyon Martin. After having microfracture surgery on both his knees K-Mart should just be happy he’s able to play again. Riiight. He’s never been the type to be happy in a limited role.

Now or Never – J.R. Smith. The consummate knucklehead starts off his contract year with an incident at a night club during training camp. Is it possible to be washed up at the age of 22?

8. New Orleans Hornets – Having a permanent home (for a little while anyway) should make their regular season less of a grind than it has been the past two years. NO’s starting five is as good as any in the Association, but their depth, especially up front, is suspect. Which is why they can’t afford to have injuries again if they expect to make the playoffs. The addition of Morris Peterson fills their SG void. And Tyson Chandler’s offensive is improving. But make no mistake, the Hornets go as Chris Paul goes.

Eyes On – Hilton Armstrong. He has looked like a different player in the pre-season and should flourish in his role as the first big man off the bench.

Now or Never – Peja Stojakovic. I’m not one to make light of back problems, but it seems to me that after Peja signed that 5 year $64 million deal he lost his desire to play.

9. Memphis Grizzlies – The Southwest in the toughest division in basketball, and the Griz are the biggest sleeper in the NBA. Memphis is surprisingly deep and has a good mix of experience and youth. Other than being able to rebound, their biggest question is rookie coach Marc Iavaroni. The early word on him was that he liked to run, but the latest I hear is that he’s defense first. The Griz have the horses to run, but defenders? Not so much. Iavaroni’s main task will be to find a middle ground between the two.

Eyes On – Kyle Lowry. He’s tough, can defend and is quicker than greased lightning. He only played in ten games as a rookie before breaking his left wrist but posted a PER of 18.49.

Now or Never – Darko Milicic. He’s been given the starting spot he’s always wanted so he shouldn’t pout anymore. But I’m just not sure he’s ever going to want it badly enough to excel.

10. Portland Trail Blazers – While losing Greg Oden for the season to microfracture surgery (right knee) is a demoralizing blow, there’s just something about this club that I like. Their youth and inexperience will certainly work against them on some nights, but the Blazers have a good mix of players with well defined roles. Not to mention that Nate McMillan is a solid coach and these guys seem to genuinely like each other. I expect it’ll probably be ugly early on, but by the end of the year nobody will want to play this team.

Eyes On – LaMarcus Aldridge. He was overshadowed by Brandon Roy as a rookie, but LaMarc can definitely play. Aldridge has the potential to be great if he bulks up.

Now or Never – Channing Frye. His PER dropped from 18.12 to 10.50 in his sophomore campaign. Frye has a golden opportunity to redeem himself as Portland’s first big man off the pine.

11. Golden State Warriors – I have no doubt that Jason Richardson is the most underappreciated player in the league. Baron Davis gets most of the credit, but J-Rich was really the key to their Cinderella run last season. The Warriors will still play at a breakneck pace and be fun to watch, but minus Richardson they aren’t near as dangerous. Of concern also is that coach Don Nelson renegotiated the playoff incentives out of his contract over the summer. Nellie likes his money, so I take that as an ominous sign.

Eyes On – Kelenna Azubuike. Made quite a splash last year after being signed from the D-League. Now Azubuike steps into J-Rich’s rather large shoes at starting SG.

Now or Never – Mickael Pietrus. He’s been extremely inconsistent throughout his four seasons. And even though it’s his contract year I’d be shocked if Pietrus plays any better.

12. Sacramento Kings – Losing Mike Bibby for six to ten weeks to a torn left thumb ligament is real bad news for Sacto. What makes it even worse is that the plan is to start third year PG Orien Greene in Bibby’s place. Things don’t get better from there though. Brad Miller’s back is already aching and they have a completely unknown entity in rookie coach Reggie Theus. The Kings are largely an aging unathletic bunch whose best days are behind them. It’s time for President Geoff Petrie to break out the dynamite.

Eyes On – Kevin Martin. He was rewarded with a five year $55 million deal after having one good year. While KM2 is certainly good, I’m not sure greatness is in his future.

Now or Never – Ron Artest. Since he’s likely to be on his best behavior and opt of his contract after the season, it will be interesting to see what the “Tru Warier” has left in his tank.

13. Los Angeles Clippers – With Elton Brand out until at least February recovering from a torn left Achilles tendon, the Clips season is really over before it begins. Making matters worse is that Brand, Sam Cassell, Corey Maggette, Shaun Livingston and Ruben Patterson can all be free agents at the end of the year. So they’ll most likely get off to a poor start without EB. Then at least three of those guys (Sam, Corey & Ruben) will start playing for contracts. The end result being a long ugly season for LA’s other team.

Eyes On – Chris Kaman. He slimmed down over the summer so he would be able to keep up with the quicker centers in the league. The pre-season results have been encouraging.

Now or Never – Tim Thomas. With Brand out TT will be counted on to play big minutes and produce consistently as their starting PF. Stop laughing, I’m serious.

14. Seattle SuperSonics – Now that owner Clay Bennett has finally put his relocation to Oklahoma City plan into effect, you can expect a very contentious season away from the court in the Emerald City. On the court new coach P.J. Carlesimo has his work cut out for him. Carlesimo’s main objective is to get this club to play defense. The problem there is that he has only two quality defenders on his entire roster. While the Supes do have some depth, I don’t like their mix of players at all. Very tough returning gig for P.J.

Eyes On – Kevin Durant. He’ll probably have some breathtaking performances, but the rookie’s no franchise savior as of yet. Defense and strength are major concerns for KD.

Now or Never – Robert Swift. He enters his contract year coming off right ACL surgery. With Kurt Thomas as his only competition for playing time, Swift better be able show something.

15. Minnesota Timberwolves – On one hand it’s a good thing that the rebuilding process has finally started in the Twin Cities, but cripes is their roster ever a mess. You’ve got over-the-hill veterans like Antoine Walker, Theo Ratliff, Michael Doleac and Greg Buckner mixed with a plethora of inexperienced talent. So does coach Randy Wittman play the young guys or try to eek out wins with the older cast? Either way the Wolves will stink, yet somehow VP Kevin McHale will still manage to be employed.

Eyes On – Al Jefferson. I’m interested to see how he fares as a go-to-guy in the West. If Big Al doesn’t sign a contract extension before 10/31, all the more incentive to dominate.

Now or Never – Sebastian Telfair. He’s the only “true” PG Minny has AND he’s entering a contract year. If Bassy doesn’t show anything this season I’m not sure he’s even a starter in Europe.

Final Four – San Antonio, Dallas, Lakers, Houston

Western Finals – Dallas, Lakers

NBA Finals – Detroit, Dallas

NBA Champion – Dallas