Wizards at Cavaliers

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Cleveland – 45.48% (11th)
Washington – 46.12% (19th)

Rebound Differential
Cleveland – +4.15 (1st)
Washington – +.40 (14th)

Point Differential
Cleveland – -.35 (16th)
Washington – -.33 (15th)

Shooting
Cleveland – 43.86% (28th)
Washington – 44.60% (22nd)

3-Point Shooting
Cleveland – 35.8% (15th)
Washington – 35.6% (18th)

Free Throw Shooting
Cleveland – 71.66% (28th)
Washington – 78.20% (5th)

Turnovers
Cleveland – 13.96 (10th)
Washington – 13.19 (8th)

Fouls
Cleveland – 20.87 (16th)
Washington – 19.58 (5th)

Pace Factor
Cleveland – 92.5 (22nd)
Washington – 92.0 (27th)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Delonte West & Daniel Gibson v Antonio Daniels & Gilbert Arenas – The comparison between the starter’s ability to run a team isn’t even close. AD is probably one of the most underrated floor generals in the league. D West on the other hand has always been a touch overrated in my book, and is best suited for the role of third guard. On the court Daniels is also the better defender, and his size and strength advantage could effectively take Delonte out of the game.

It’s funny to say, but both bench guys are filling the “instant offense” role for their respective clubs. Arenas (still recovering from left knee surgery) will be limited to 25 minutes per game and may see as many as 30 before the series is over. While there’s no doubt that Gil is the x-factor for the Wiz, he has to try and “fit in” more than usual, so his production level is far from certain. Gibson absolutely must make open 3-pointers or he’s pretty much useless.

Shooting Guard
Devin Brown & Sasha Pavlovic v DeShawn Stevenson & Roger Mason Jr. – The off guards for each squad do many of the same things too. Both work hard, are scrappy and very streaky shooters. The biggest difference I see is that Stevenson is a superior defender.

Sasha has already been ruled of this series with a sprained left ankle. That may mean we get a Damon Jones sighting or two, but I don’t Damon being that much of a factor. Mason is another hard nosed role player, but he also possesses a nice touch from downtown. Roger played very well recently filling in while DeShawn missed time down the stretch with a sore back.

Small Forward
LeBron James & Wally Szczerbiak v Caron Butler & Dominic McGuire – Certainly the marquee match up here as The King faces off against Tough Juice. Obviously no one can stop Bron, but Butler has as good a chance as anyone. Caron must make James work on defense so LeBron can’t conserve energy on that end. Both of these guys enter the post season banged up. Bron with a sore back and Butler with a bruised right knee. Both of these situations need to be watched closely since both players are so important to their team’s success.

After I touted Wally all season as ready to help a contender, it makes sense that his jumper completely deserted him as soon as he joined Cleveland. I suppose it only takes one good game, but World has to start making shots or he won’t see the court. I like McGuire’s all around game, but as a rookie I don’t think he’s quite ready for this stage yet.

Power Forward
Ben Wallace & Joe Smith v Antawn Jamison & Darius Songaila – Jamison will have a quickness advantage over anyone the Cavs throw at him. Lucky thing for Tawn since it’s his contract year. Jamison may legitimately need to carry the Wiz too with Arenas and Butler not at 100%. Wallace has been slowed by a bad back recently, which has only accentuated his already declining skills. That said, if Big Ben can find the fountain of youth he’s probably Cleveland’s best chance to check Tawn on the perimeter.

Smith and Songaila can both finish around the rim and convert open mid-range opportunities on offense. The big difference in their games is that Joe is a better defender, rebounder and plays smarter. I have a feeling Smith may be an important player in this series before it’s over.

Center
Zydrunas Ilgauskas & Anderson Varejao v Brendan Haywood & Andray Blatche – Haywood very quietly is coming off his best season as a pro and Z is currently dealing with a sore back. So what would have been a big advantage for the Cavs isn’t anymore. Unless Ilgauskas starts feeling better I expect these two to cancel each other out.

The bench guys both provide lifts for their clubs but in completely different ways. Varejao is the consummate agitator as well as being a good defender and rebounder. Blatche, while a little too inconsistent, has massive “upside”. He can score inside and out, has the size to bang down low and the instinct to be an elite shot blocker. If Washington gets a significant contribution from Andray that might put them over the top.

Coach
Mike Brown v Eddie Jordan – Brown is a defensive coach and Jordan an offensive one. While both tried to improve the other facets of their job this year, the results were only mixed. Both of them struggle with in game and game-to-game adjustments alike. This is really a toss up as both guys are pretty flawed. I’ll give a slight edge to Mike because he’s a little better when it comes to preparation.

Overall

When squads are meeting in the first round for the third straight season, you know there’s going to be bad blood. And judging by all the smack being talked already (mostly from the Wiz though) that’s certainly the case here. Washington has lost the two previous matchups, but they were not healthy at all last year. This time around neither team is a 100% with owies up and down both rosters.

Cleveland really struggled over the last two months of the season (and really since their big trade) going 12-11. The Wiz were slightly better than that at 15-9, but what makes that mark more impressive is that they were dealing with injuries and battling for playoff positioning the entire time.

This series is really a toss up, and I won’t be surprised with whoever wins. Since the Cavs tend to have droughts on offense Washington needs to push the pace and score, score, score to be successful. In doing this though the Wiz can’t forget to play some D. Cleveland needs one of their shooters (West, Gibson, Jones, Brown or Szczerbiak) to step up nightly or they are probably going home.

In the end I give an oh so slight edge to the Cavs because of their defense, rebounding, front court depth and home court advantage. However if the games are tight in crunch time the upper hand swings to Washington because they shoot free throws so much better.

Prediction: Even though I’ll probably regret it, I can’t pick against a determined LeBron when things are this close. Cleveland in 7.