76ers at Pistons

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Detroit – 43.79% (3rd)
Philadelphia – 45.99% (17th)

Rebound Differential
Detroit – +2.30 (7th)
Philadelphia – +2.62 (6th)

Point Differential
Detroit – +7.30 (3rd)
Philadelphia – +.49 (14th)

Shooting
Detroit – 45.81% (13th)
Philadelphia – 45.95% (12th)

3-Point Shooting
Detroit – 36.5% (14th)
Philadelphia – 31.4% (30th)

Free Throw Shooting
Detroit – 76.53% (14th)
Philadelphia – 70.66% (30th)

Turnovers
Detroit – 11.63 (1st)
Philadelphia – 14.37 (13th)

Fouls
Detroit – 20.56 (13th)
Philadelphia – 19.71 (7th)

Pace Factor
Detroit – 89.9 (30th)
Philadelphia – 93.1 (20th)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Chauncey Billups & Rodney Stuckey v Andre Miller & Louis Williams – There’s no doubt that when A Mil performs well so does Philly. Consequently it’s on Chaunc to play solid defense and shut Andre down. Billups has certainly lost a step, but it’s a step that Miller never had to begin with. A Mil is not known for his D, but he’ll have to at least make an attempt to stay in front of Mr. Big Shot or things could get dicey quickly for the Sixers.

The bench match up is interesting as two quick youngsters go head to head. Stuckey has more all around game than Williams, but Lou Dub is a more explosive scorer. Neither has much interest in defending, but I give Rodney an edge there for his hustle. Williams must pay attention to Stuckey or Louis runs the risk of getting burnt to a crisp.

Shooting Guard
Richard Hamilton & Juan Dixon v Willie Green & Rodney Carney – Oh my, I apologize to my long time readers in advance. Willie Green is athletic, I’ll give him that, so if he can run through screens and stay with Rip on defense, that’ll be plenty from him. I expect Hamilton to “float” on D, looking to help or double while daring Green to shoot. This one isn’t fair.

It gets no better for Philly when comparing the 2nd unit. While the difference isn’t as vast, Juanito is still a much better option than Carney.

Small Forward
Tayshaun Prince & Jarvis Hayes v Andre Iguodala & Thaddeus Young – This series being competitive hinges on this match up. If Tay is able to shut down Andre the Sixers have no chance at all. Look for the Pistons to throw multiple defenders at AI2, even if Prince is doing the job. For Iguodala this is about a payday. If he plays well and carries the team he’ll be an extremely rich man. However, if he stinks up the joint he’ll be losing dollars by the minute.

The Sixers finally score a check mark with Thad. I have some doubts about Young long term, but there’s no debating that he contributes more than Hayes does right now. I have major concerns about Thaddeus defending Rasheed though if he plays some PF with AI2 up front.

Power Forward
Rasheed Wallace & Amir Johnson v Reggie Evans & Jason Smith – Ugh, another brutal one. Evans best shot at a contribution is to try get under Sheed’s skin relentlessly. Hopefully getting Wallace tossed or suspended. Other than that, I see no way Reggie can check Rasheed anywhere on the court. Wallace can also “float” on D if he so chooses, but he must be aware of Evans on the offensive glass.

The backups really play the same game at the moment with the difference being Johnson is an athletic super-freak. I see Amir as an x-factor later on in the playoffs, but for now as long as Smith hustles and plays smart, he should be able to hold his own with Johnson.

Center
Antonio McDyess & Jason Maxiell v Samuel Dalembert & Calvin Booth – I expect Dyess to try and draw Sam away from the basket using his mid-range jumper as the bait. If he can make a few of those that should open up the lane for drives by Chaunc, Rip and Stuckey. Dalembert *must* stay out of foul trouble, rebound and provide the last line of defense. To that end, Sammy should NOT guard Wallace unless it’s an end of game situation. (McDyess would be a great a mismatch for Dalembert if Sam had a go to post move.)

Once again the 2nd unit favors Detroit. Booth is a big time stiff, and while Maxiell is limited offensively, Jason does contribute toughness, hustle, defense and shot blocking in the role of undersized center.

Coach
Flip Saunders v Maurice Cheeks – If the games are close this should be an interesting battle since neither guy is good at in-game adjustments. I’ll give Flip the edge when it comes to preparation and tactics. However Mo has it all over him in terms of being able to motivate and having the respect of his players. In the end I give the nod to Saunders though for having coached in 70 more playoffs games than Cheeks has.

Overall

In many ways Philly is a squad that is Detroit’s nightmare opponent. I’m referring to the Sixers general attitude and the way they approach the game. Philly plays hard and never gives up…which is basically the opposite of how the Pistons go about things. While this certainly works in Philly’s favor, it won’t be enough to overcome the huge talent disparity between the two clubs.

Nevertheless, this is a good thing for the Sixers even if they get completely beat down. The reason I say that is not for the “experience” factor, but more for the weeding out of guys that can’t play. Post season pressure is different, and even though Philly is a feel good story this season, I have a feeling that some of their guys aren’t quite the players they’ve been made out to be.

Prediction: The Sixers get a game, and possibly two, but Detroit prevails. Pistons in 5.