Raptors at Magic

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Orlando – 44.56% (7th)
Toronto – 45.75% (15th)

Rebound Differential
Orlando – +.29 (16th)
Toronto – -1.40 (22nd)

Point Differential
Orlando – +5.28 (6th)
Toronto – +3.06 (12th)

Shooting
Orlando – 47.45% (5th)
Toronto – 46.85% (7th)

3-Point Shooting
Orlando – 38.6% (4th)
Toronto – 39.2% (2nd)

Free Throw Shooting
Orlando – 72.23% (27th)
Toronto – 81.29% (2nd)

Turnovers
Orlando – 14.38 (14th)
Toronto – 11.67 (2nd)

Fouls
Orlando – 20.70 (15th)
Toronto – 19.38 (4th)

Pace Factor
Orlando – 95.8 (9th)
Toronto – 92.4 (25th)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Jameer Nelson & Carlos Arroyo v T.J. Ford & Jose Calderon – Jameer faces an extremely tough challenge staying in front of Ford. In fact, it’s darn near mission impossible. Nelson would be wise to stay off T.J a few steps and dare him to shoot. Then again, with the way Ford has been shooting this season that might not work either. On offense Jameer not only needs to hit open shots, but he should also try and post T.J. up a few times and maybe get Ford into some foul trouble.

The backup situation heavily favors the Raps as Calderon is a starter on most NBA teams. Arroyo is far too streaky and moody to be counted on in the playoffs.

Shooting Guard
Maurice Evans & Keyon Dooling v Anthony Parker & Carlos Delfino – Parker and Evans provide many of same things to their clubs. Both are hard workers and tough tenacious defenders. The difference between the two is that AP is a top notch 3-point marksman.

The guys on the pine play similar roles too providing energy, hustle and those intangibles coaches love. Both are inconsistent though, but when Delfino is on he can be a difference maker.

Small Forward
Hedo Turkoglu & Keith Bogans v Jamario Moon & Jason Kapono – We have two “feel good” stories going to head to head here. Hedo is a Most Improved Player candidate and Moon is the 27 year old rookie who finally made it. The series could also hinge on this battle. Jamario is a very solid defender and Turk is Orlando’s go to guy. Moon needs to crowd Hedo and use his length to bother Turk’s jumper so he doesn’t get going early. Hedo needs to vary his game to keep Jamario off balance.

Bogans is an energizer and tough defender where Kapono is a shooter extraordinaire. Keith has a propensity to take bad shots and Jason has the maddening habit of not shooting enough. Both can be x-factors in their own way though.

Power Forward
Rashard Lewis & Brian Cook v Chris Bosh & Kris Humphries – This is certainly the marquee match up on paper, but the reality is that R Lew has been a severe disappointment in his first season with the Magic. If Shard ever gets motivated and decides to play his perimeter skills could really give CB4 trouble. When Toronto has the ball Bosh needs to avoid floating around the perimeter and take either Lewis or Turkoglu down low and punish them.

I like Humphries’ activity and toughness, but I don’t expect him to see many minutes. Cook is doubtful for the series with a broken right finger.

Center
Dwight Howard & Adonal Foyle v Rasho Nesterovic & Andrea Bargnani – I know Rasho has been on fire in March and April, but he has his work cut out for him here big time. Superman should have no problem abusing and putting fouls on Nesterovic in a hurry, so much so that Primoz Brezec’s services might be required. I’m interested to see Howard perform in his second post season since the Raps have no one that can even remotely check him. I’m looking for Dwight to be dominant and completely unstoppable. Anything less and his squad might be in trouble.

Bargnani was one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA this season, and I don’t expect him to turn it around now after losing his starting gig to Rasho. Foyle is a defensive specialist down low that will get spot duty when Howard needs a blow.

Coach
Stan Van Gundy v Sam Mitchell – This is about as a big a mismatch as they come. I’m hard pressed to come up with an area where Mitchell has the edge, other than having more stylish apparel. SVG is a better motivator, tactician, adjuster and preparer. ‘Nuff said.

Overall

When analyzing the box scores of their regular season contests only one thing stood out to me. The team that won each game shot 50% or better and also always made more threes. All of the other statistics were practically even. What that tells me is these teams really aren’t that far apart and a hot shooting night is all it takes to win.

When I compared these two rosters on paper it was almost shocking how much more talent Toronto had. That said, the Raps are a paltry 9-16 in March and April, and that’s not how you want to finish the season. Now compare that to Orlando’s 15-7 over the same period and you see two clubs headed in opposite directions.

A nice little subplot to this series is that Bosh and Howard have an underrated rivalry going that could make for some interesting theater in crunch time. As a whole though I think these games will be more competitive and entertaining than people think since these squads both shoot the 3 very well. The difference is the Magic like to gun theirs in transition where the Raps get most of their attempts in the half court.

One last point to be aware of is that if things are tight down the stretch Toronto’s advantage at the free throw line could be huge.

Prediction: Sleeper series of the first round with Orlando’s superior defense and coaching making the difference. Magic in 7.