Suns at Spurs

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
San Antonio – 44.43% (5th)
Phoenix – 45.61% (13th)

Rebound Differential
San Antonio – +.97 (12th)
Phoenix – -2.39 (25th)

Point Differential
San Antonio – +4.79 (8th)
Phoenix – +5.04 (7th)

Shooting
San Antonio – 45.74% (14th)
Phoenix – 50.02% (1st)

3-Point Shooting
San Antonio – 36.9% (11th)
Phoenix – 39.3% (1st)

Free Throw Shooting
San Antonio – 76.10% (15th)
Phoenix – 78.30% (4th)

Turnovers
San Antonio – 12.62 (4th)
Phoenix – 14.43 (15th)

Fouls
San Antonio – 18.74 (2nd)
Phoenix – 19.91 (8th)

Pace Factor
San Antonio – 90.8 (28th)
Phoenix – 99.0 (4th)

Individual Matchups

Point Guard
Tony Parker & Jacque Vaughn v Steve Nash & Leandro Barbosa – It feels like I’ve written about this match up a million times already. This time Nash is a year older and yet another step slower. Parker on the other hand is in his prime and as quick as ever. Containing Tony’s penetration has to be priority #1 for the Suns.

The backups couldn’t be more different in their contributions. Vaughn is a guy that can play D and run a team, but not necessarily shoot or score. Barbosa is lightning quick and tends to score in bunches or be way off. If Leandro had any interest in defense, he’d be Phoenix’s best option to check Parker.

Shooting Guard
Michael Finley & Manu Ginobili v Raja Bell & Gordan Giricek – Finley and Bell bring pretty much the same things to the table, except Raja is a better defender and shooter. Both play smart and understand “team” ball.

Ginobili is a starter in all but name and really makes the Spurs go. Manu has easily been SA’s best and most important player this season. Flat out, the Spurs are not the same team without him. That’s why his strained left groin has to be such a huge concern. Look for Bell to be at his annoying best when he’s on Ginobili. Gira is far too lackadaisical to be counted on in the playoffs, but I guess he could make a big 3 or two.

Small Forward
Bruce Bowen & Ime Udoka v Grant Hill & Eric Piatkowski – Both starters are well into the downside of their careers. These days Bowen starts but is on a very short leash if he doesn’t produce. Hill has played well this year but a nagging right groin injury has shelved him recently, and almost certainly will limit his effectiveness in this series.

Udoka has played most of the crunch time minutes for SA over the second half of the season. Ime is almost a clone of Bruce (right down the corner 3-pointers) except that Udoka has more bulk and can handle bigger guys down low. I’m not sure Ime can guard Nash like BB can though. Pike is unlikely to play even if Grant can’t go.

Power Forward
Tim Duncan & Matt Bonner v Amare Stoudemire & Boris Diaw – Ah, the marquee match up that everyone wants to see. Except that Amare rarely defends Duncan anymore. Conversely, Tim has his work cut out for him trying to slow down Stat. Stoudemire has been on a serious tear since Shaq’s arrival and Duncan is going to draw the assignment down the stretch. Amare however will be allowed to “float” on defense and clean up the boards.

Since Robert Horry is sidelined indefinitely with a bruised right knee, the Red Rocket is going to have to step up. Bonner is a better shooter than Horry, but no where near the defender. Diaw could wind up playing a huge role in this series if Hill’s groin isn’t sound. If his head is into the game Boris is definitely the Suns x-factor.

Center
Fabricio Oberto & Kurt Thomas v Shaquille O’Neal & Brian Skinner – Oberto’s minutes have been steadily declining since the arrival of Thomas, and I expect that trend to continue here. Fab is a nice role player, but he can’t defend Stoudemire or O’Neal. Shaq was brought to Phoenix specifically to defend Duncan, and in their two regular season get-togethers The Diesel did a superb job checking the Big Fundamental. Shaq on Timmy should provide some great theater in crunch time.

KT is probably the Spurs best option to contain Amare. That said Stat is way too quick for Kurt, so what Thomas has to do is play strong positional defense, which happens to be one of his strengths. KT will also be able to draw either Shaq or Amare away from the basket with his ability to hit the mid-range shot. B Skins is a banger down low and little more. He’s unlikely to see time unless foul trouble becomes a factor.

Coach
Gregg Popovich v Mike D’Antoni – Yet another match up I feel I’ve typed about ad nauseam. I don’t think there’s anything D’Antoni does better than Pop. From preparation to in game diagramming of plays, Pop is one of the all time greats. Mike still tends to get that “deer in headlights” look too often for my liking.

Overall

I’m a little surprised at how many of the experts are writing SA off already. Are the Suns really that much better than the Spurs? Looking at their records over the final two months, they aren’t really that different (Phx 16-8, SA 17-9).

So what gives then?

Well the main thing is that the Spurs have three major contributors banged up. Besides Manu and Horry, Brent Barry has been hampered by a left calf strain for most of the season. SA really misses Brent and Robert’s 3-point shooting, and if Manu can’t go the Spurs are done.

As I see it though, Phoenix still has many of the same issues they’ve had with SA over the years. Yes, Shaq does a nice job on Duncan, but who controls Parker? No one that I see on their roster. And if Amare or O’Neal get into foul trouble the Suns will struggle big time.

To me it comes down to the same old question when these two squads face off. Who can dictate the pace of play? If it’s slow, can Phoenix play the type of defense as a unit that’s needed to beat the Spurs? If the tempo is fast, can SA score enough points to hang with the Suns?

This will be another hard fought series that can go either way. I’m in the minority in that I don’t think SA is dead just yet. They still play better team defense and do a better job taking care of the boards than Phoenix does. As much as I hate to say it, a few call from the officials could decide this one.

Prediction: Bucking the trend! Spurs in 7.