Spurs at Hornets

Regular Season Numbers and Rank

Defensive Field Goal Percentage
New Orleans – 46.00% (16th)
San Antonio – 44.43% (5th)

Rebound Differential
New Orleans – +1.01 (10th)
San Antonio – +.97 (12th)

Point Differential
New Orleans – +5.28 (6th)
San Antonio – +4.79 (8th)

Shooting
New Orleans – 46.56% (8th)
San Antonio – 45.74% (14th)

3-Point Shooting
New Orleans – 38.9% (3rd)
San Antonio – 36.9% (11th)

Free Throw Shooting
New Orleans – 76.86% (11th)
San Antonio – 76.10% (15th)

Turnovers
New Orleans – 11.87 (3rd)
San Antonio – 12.62 (4th)

Fouls
New Orleans – 18.67 (1st)
San Antonio – 18.74 (2nd)

Pace Factor
New Orleans – 92.1 (26th)
San Antonio – 90.8 (28th)

Individual Match Ups

Point Guard
Chris Paul & Jannero Pargo v Tony Parker & Jacque Vaughn – This is certainly the main event as I see it. Back and forth and back forth they’ll go trying to wear each other out. These guys play basically the same type of game; breaking down defenses off the dribble; creating for their teammates; and scoring in bunches when needed. Paul is certainly the more skilled of the two, but it’s not by much right now mainly because Parker is the better mid-range shooter. And while Tony having considerably more post season experience can be overplayed at times, in a match up that figures to be this close any edge - no matter how slight - could be crucial. I look for foul trouble to be a factor for both players at least once since neither is a great on-ball defender. Without a doubt this will be very fun to watch.

The Hornets are going to need Pargo to be at his instant offense best to offset some of Ginobili’s sizable contribution. Vaughn didn’t play much in the first round, but his on-ball defense figures to be critical in helping to contain CP3.

Shooting Guard
Morris Peterson & Bonzi Wells v Michael Finley & Manu Ginobili – Mo Pete has really been relegated to a place holding kind of starter. That might have to change here because he could be one of NO’s best options to defend Manu. Finley actually played a lot versus Phoenix sliding over to SF when Ginobili checked in, but I expect Fin’s minutes to decrease against the more traditional Hornets.

Manu is going to be absolutely key for the Spurs because NO has trouble matching up with him. If the Hornets can’t find a combination that is able to keep Ginobili somewhat in check they will be in BIG trouble. As unreliable as Bonzi is these days he could be very useful if he’s able to post Manu up and put some fouls on the Argentinean.

Small Forward
Peja Stojakovic & Julian Wright v Bruce Bowen & Ime Udoka – When Peja is engaged mentally and his jumper is on the Hornets are almost unbeatable. The question is can he get it done against superior defenders like Bowen and Udoka? I kinda doubt it, but Stojakovic did shoot 60.7% from deep in round one. Bruce’s defensive prowess seems like it will go to waste in this series since it’s unlikely he can check West, and there's no way he can deal with Paul.

Ime might get a turn on West, but he too has zero chance against CP3. I anticipate the slowly rounding into form Brent Barry seeing a lot of time at SF since Peja can’t expose Brent’s poor defense off the dribble. It’s probably not realistic to expect a rookie to perform well in this role, but I think Wright will be NO’s best alternative on Ginobili. Julian has the combination of length, athleticism and quickness that could frustrate Manu into some bad shots.

Power Forward
David West & Ryan Bowen v Tim Duncan & Robert Horry – While this might seem like the main event part two, I don’t see West guarding Duncan all that much because the height and length disparity between the two is too great. This is a monumental test for David since SA can throw multiple defenders at him, all of which will be bigger, stronger and longer than he is. For West to be successful he’s going to have to put the ball on the floor a little more than he’s used to, while still knocking down mid-range jumpers when open. As long as Tim is patient on offense he should have no problem producing in this series.

Horry started to get sea legs back versus the Suns after an extended absence from the court (right knee). I’m sure he’ll get spot minutes here and there, but I don’t see him playing a big role yet. Bowen is an energizer/hustler/agitator who might get a chance on Ginobili if nothing else works. Also look for Ryan to be the designated fouler if the “Hack-a-Dunc” strategy is employed.

Center
Tyson Chandler & Hilton Armstrong v Kurt Thomas & Fabricio Oberto – Chandler has a big challenge ahead of him since he’ll be the primary defender on Duncan. It’s imperative that Ty keeps his emotions in check and doesn’t get into foul trouble because the depth chart gets mighty thin behind him. It took a while, but Thomas has finally wrestled the starting spot from Fab. Kurt’s job will be to draw Chandler away from the basket on offense by making some jumpers, and to keep Ty off the boards by always putting a body on him.

Armstrong will be needed against Tim, but I doubt the referees will let him play enough to make a difference. If Hilton falters, and Chandler has foul problems, coming off the deep pine for the Hornets would be Melvin Ely and/or Chris Andersen. Yuck! I look for Oberto’s flopping to irritate both Ty and West sooner or later. Other than that Fabby has nice hands, can stick an open J, move without the ball and perform in pressure situations.

Coach
Byron Scott v Gregg Popovich – These two really coach the same way; defense first; precision offensive sets; and mandatory intensity and smart play at all times. They both are impeccable in terms of preparation, commanding the respect of their players and diagramming plays out of huddles. Where I give Pop the slight edge is adjustments, both in game and game-to-game. That said, it’s unlikely that a coaching decision/mistake decides this series.

Overall

These two clubs split the season series 2-2, with each squad winning one at home and one on the road. NO ended up with the home court because they had a better conference record…by one game. When analyzing the box scores I noticed that the winner always shot better from the field (by an average of 10.4%) and always had more rebounds (by an average of 10 rpg). The weird thing is that every other stat was virtually even in all four contests. (With the exception of assists, which skewed toward the winner in the last two games.) To me this shows just how even these two teams are in all facets of the game.

Since these are two of the slowest paced clubs in the NBA, along with being two of the lowest turnover squads as well, these tilts should be tight, low scoring, grind it out affairs where every possession counts. They are also the top two teams in terms of fouls committed, so look for free throws to be few and far between.

Don’t worry though, the quality of the play will still be extremely high. I mean, we’re not talking Knicks-Heat late 90’s here. Not by a long shot. Think more along the lines of Utah-Houston in the opening round last year. Round ball purists will definitely love it.

The Hornets are the better shooting club, and the Spurs the superior defensive squad. CP3 and TP cancel each other out, as do West and Duncan in terms of production. So the difference really boils down to Manu. And more specifically, who can close games in crunch time better, Ginobili or Paul? As unstoppable as he is, I just see SA having a plan that works against Chris. I also envision D West struggling to get to his sweet spots on offense. And it doesn’t take a genius to know that Chandler will be in severe foul trouble at least once, if not more. I’m not even mentioning the Spurs tremendous advantage in the area of big game experience.

Prediction: NO had a great season, and has a bright future, but they just aren’t ready yet. SA in 6.