Magic at Pistons
Regular Season Numbers and Rank
Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Detroit – 43.71% (3rd)
Orlando – 44.60% (7th)
Rebound Differential
Detroit – +2.29 (7th)
Orlando – +.31 (16th)
Point Differential
Detroit – +7.39 (2nd)
Orlando – +5.46 (5th)
Shooting
Detroit – 45.78% (13th)
Orlando – 47.44% (5th)
3-Point Shooting
Detroit – 36.6% (13th)
Orlando – 38.6% (4th)
Free Throw Shooting
Detroit – 76.69% (14th)
Orlando – 72.12% (27th)
Turnovers
Detroit – 11.65 (1st)
Orlando – 14.30 (13th)
Fouls
Detroit – 20.58 (13th)
Orlando – 20.58 (14th)
Pace Factor
Detroit – 89.9 (30th)
Orlando – 95.6 (10th)
Individual Match Ups
Point Guard
Chauncey Billups & Rodney Stuckey v Jameer Nelson & Carlos Arroyo – Nelson really stepped up in the first round shooting 51.9% from the field and 50% from three. His floor game was solid too, as he did an outstanding job running his club. Jameer’s defense was Swiss cheese though, and that won’t cut it against Billups. However Chaunc really hasn’t set the world on fire with his play and has been chilly from the floor (40.3%) and three (33.3%) alike in the playoffs. This is an interesting tussle and an important one at that. PG play is always key in the NBA, but when either of these two is making shots AND keeping everyone involved, their squads perform at a much higher level.
Stuckey’s energy and explosiveness as the Pistons third guard hasn’t been utilized as much as I'd like. This rookie could really provide his team with a lift off the pine if given the opportunity. Arroyo has seen his minutes shrink to almost nothing, and I don’t see that trend reversing now.
Shooting Guard
Richard Hamilton & Arron Afflalo v Maurice Evans & Keyon Dooling – Rip is really going to have to work hard on offense as the Magic have a plethora of defenders to throw at him. The good news for Hamilton is that none of those guys are big time scoring threats so he can get some rest on that end. Evans is tough, athletic and a hard worker; in other words the perfect guy to chase Rip around screens all night long. I expect Mo to embrace his assignment and not back down from Hamilton one iota.
I was surprised to see Afflalo get the call against Philadelphia since he seems so tentative with the ball in his hands. That said, he does know his role and never tries to do too much. Dooling has seen most of his time at backup PG, and could play a bigger role in this series, especially if Nelson goes in the tank. Keyon’s defense and quickness make him a quality option to check either Rip or Billups as well.
Small Forward
Tayshaun Prince & Jarvis Hayes v Hedo Turkoglu & Keith Bogans – Prince’s importance to his club is still underappreciated in my opinion, even now. Tay will have some serious work to do taking Hedo out of his comfort zones. This is what I mean by important, if Prince can shut Turkoglu down, Detroit will be in very good shape. In past years I would have given Hedo a 0% chance of producing against Tay, but this season has been different. Turk needs to continue his vary his game and not settle into any patterns or else Prince will eat him up.
Hayes has been used in spot duty only thus far and I imagine that continues here. Bogans is another guy that can defend both Chaunc or Hamilton, and Keith’s toughness and strength pretty much guarantees he’ll be see plenty of action.
Power Forward
Rasheed Wallace & Jason Maxiell v Rashard Lewis & Brian Cook – Sheed versus Shard! Sorry, had to do it. These two are probably the most talented players on their respective squads, but both are also enigmas. When they come to play, look out, which is also why it’s so frustrating when they coast. If Wallace would post Lewis up all game long this probably wouldn’t even be a contest, but we all know Sheed won’t do that. R Lew has an underrated post-up game himself, but it’s his quickness off the dribble that will really give Wallace fits. These guys tend to be barometers for their teams success as well, so trying to get them off early should be a priority for both sides.
Maxiell continues to do his thing as 6th man, but I worry about who he guards here? He’s too small to check Howard, and not quick enough for Lewis or Hedo. This could turn out to be a major problem for Detroit as the series progresses. Cook is due back from a broken right hand sometime around the middle of the series, but don’t look for him to be a contributor.
Center
Antonio McDyess & Theo Ratliff v Dwight Howard & Marcin Gortat – 22.6 points, 18.2 rebounds, 3.8 blocks and 63.8% shooting. That’s what Howard did in destroying Toronto. Sorry Dyess, but you don’t stand a chance. Dwight needs to shed his David Robinson-esque choir boy attitude and just say; “Eff it! Every time I get a touch in the low post I’m putting my man in the basket with the ball.” When he does that, no one will be able to stop him. Since there’s no way Antonio can box Howard out, Dyess needs to try and draw Dwight away from the basket to keep him off the boards. Good luck with that.
Ratliff is probably the Pistons best chance to contain Howard, but Theo is really too light and slow these days to be as effective as he once was. I anticipate Sheed getting the call on Dwight in crunch time, but before that Wallace is too important to risk foul trouble. Rookie Gortat appearing in four games in round one was a shock to say the least, but he’s certainly more athletic and active than the ancient Adonal Foyle.
Coach
Flip Saunders v Stan Van Gundy – Flip is probably coaching for his job again, and he’s not very good under pressure to begin with. Saunders does his homework in terms of preparation, but getting his team to listen to him is another story all together. SVG is better at diagramming plays out of huddles, motivating his men and making adjustments in game and game-to-game. Big advantage for Orlando here.
Overall
These squads split the season series 2-2 with each club winning one at home and one on the road. As usual, the winner shot an average of 52.2% compared to the loser’s 41.8% mark. The one thing that really stuck out though is that the Pistons out rebounded the Magic by an average of eight per game. That’s a pretty hefty number in the post season. The other thing worth noting is that in their last meeting of the year on 2/19 Orlando made thirteen 3-pointers compared to Detroit’s two. That can also swing a game.
The Magic might be the least paid attention to good team in the entire NBA, but make no mistake; they have a real shot to pull the upset here. For that to happen R Lew MUST be engaged mentally and not start sulking if he misses his first couple of shots. When he is “on” Orlando is extremely tough to beat. The next thing that needs to transpire is Nelson has to be steady. Not great or spectacular, but he has to make good decisions with the ball and knock down open shots. If Jameer flames out, so will Orlando.
Big picture wise the Magic need to push the tempo and shoot 3’s in transition. That’s their strength and really isn’t the Pistons forte. When the game slows down Orlando has to pound the ball into Howard time after time after time. They have to make Detroit double, trap or whatever, but the important thing is that the Magic dictate play when they have the ball.
The Pistons really have their work cut out for them here because if they take Orlando lightly it will be tee time in Motown before you know it. The Magic also present match up problems for Detroit since they play small ball to start off and then go even smaller off the bench. Besides coming to play every night from start to finish, the Pistons need to turn this into a half court affair where they grind out each and every possession on both ends of the floor.
If Detroit can’t control the pace and tenor of the games, and Orlando gets some confidence rolling, I’m not sure the Pistons will be able to score enough points to get the job done. This is doubly concerning when you consider the fact that Detroit’s offensive has deserted them in May the past two years.
That’s why it’s gut check time for this group of Pistons. If they lose their core of players will almost certainly be broken up. Then their legacy becomes that of a one hit wonder that got some lucky breaks with opponent’s injuries when they won it all.
Prediction: I’m torn here. On one hand Detroit has a massive experience advantage which will no doubt come into play at some point. Then on the other hand you have the young Magic who match up well with the Pistons and have a dominant big man with shooters to space the floor. This is almost too close to call, so I have to go with my gut. Detroit in 7.
Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Detroit – 43.71% (3rd)
Orlando – 44.60% (7th)
Rebound Differential
Detroit – +2.29 (7th)
Orlando – +.31 (16th)
Point Differential
Detroit – +7.39 (2nd)
Orlando – +5.46 (5th)
Shooting
Detroit – 45.78% (13th)
Orlando – 47.44% (5th)
3-Point Shooting
Detroit – 36.6% (13th)
Orlando – 38.6% (4th)
Free Throw Shooting
Detroit – 76.69% (14th)
Orlando – 72.12% (27th)
Turnovers
Detroit – 11.65 (1st)
Orlando – 14.30 (13th)
Fouls
Detroit – 20.58 (13th)
Orlando – 20.58 (14th)
Pace Factor
Detroit – 89.9 (30th)
Orlando – 95.6 (10th)
Individual Match Ups
Point Guard
Chauncey Billups & Rodney Stuckey v Jameer Nelson & Carlos Arroyo – Nelson really stepped up in the first round shooting 51.9% from the field and 50% from three. His floor game was solid too, as he did an outstanding job running his club. Jameer’s defense was Swiss cheese though, and that won’t cut it against Billups. However Chaunc really hasn’t set the world on fire with his play and has been chilly from the floor (40.3%) and three (33.3%) alike in the playoffs. This is an interesting tussle and an important one at that. PG play is always key in the NBA, but when either of these two is making shots AND keeping everyone involved, their squads perform at a much higher level.
Stuckey’s energy and explosiveness as the Pistons third guard hasn’t been utilized as much as I'd like. This rookie could really provide his team with a lift off the pine if given the opportunity. Arroyo has seen his minutes shrink to almost nothing, and I don’t see that trend reversing now.
Shooting Guard
Richard Hamilton & Arron Afflalo v Maurice Evans & Keyon Dooling – Rip is really going to have to work hard on offense as the Magic have a plethora of defenders to throw at him. The good news for Hamilton is that none of those guys are big time scoring threats so he can get some rest on that end. Evans is tough, athletic and a hard worker; in other words the perfect guy to chase Rip around screens all night long. I expect Mo to embrace his assignment and not back down from Hamilton one iota.
I was surprised to see Afflalo get the call against Philadelphia since he seems so tentative with the ball in his hands. That said, he does know his role and never tries to do too much. Dooling has seen most of his time at backup PG, and could play a bigger role in this series, especially if Nelson goes in the tank. Keyon’s defense and quickness make him a quality option to check either Rip or Billups as well.
Small Forward
Tayshaun Prince & Jarvis Hayes v Hedo Turkoglu & Keith Bogans – Prince’s importance to his club is still underappreciated in my opinion, even now. Tay will have some serious work to do taking Hedo out of his comfort zones. This is what I mean by important, if Prince can shut Turkoglu down, Detroit will be in very good shape. In past years I would have given Hedo a 0% chance of producing against Tay, but this season has been different. Turk needs to continue his vary his game and not settle into any patterns or else Prince will eat him up.
Hayes has been used in spot duty only thus far and I imagine that continues here. Bogans is another guy that can defend both Chaunc or Hamilton, and Keith’s toughness and strength pretty much guarantees he’ll be see plenty of action.
Power Forward
Rasheed Wallace & Jason Maxiell v Rashard Lewis & Brian Cook – Sheed versus Shard! Sorry, had to do it. These two are probably the most talented players on their respective squads, but both are also enigmas. When they come to play, look out, which is also why it’s so frustrating when they coast. If Wallace would post Lewis up all game long this probably wouldn’t even be a contest, but we all know Sheed won’t do that. R Lew has an underrated post-up game himself, but it’s his quickness off the dribble that will really give Wallace fits. These guys tend to be barometers for their teams success as well, so trying to get them off early should be a priority for both sides.
Maxiell continues to do his thing as 6th man, but I worry about who he guards here? He’s too small to check Howard, and not quick enough for Lewis or Hedo. This could turn out to be a major problem for Detroit as the series progresses. Cook is due back from a broken right hand sometime around the middle of the series, but don’t look for him to be a contributor.
Center
Antonio McDyess & Theo Ratliff v Dwight Howard & Marcin Gortat – 22.6 points, 18.2 rebounds, 3.8 blocks and 63.8% shooting. That’s what Howard did in destroying Toronto. Sorry Dyess, but you don’t stand a chance. Dwight needs to shed his David Robinson-esque choir boy attitude and just say; “Eff it! Every time I get a touch in the low post I’m putting my man in the basket with the ball.” When he does that, no one will be able to stop him. Since there’s no way Antonio can box Howard out, Dyess needs to try and draw Dwight away from the basket to keep him off the boards. Good luck with that.
Ratliff is probably the Pistons best chance to contain Howard, but Theo is really too light and slow these days to be as effective as he once was. I anticipate Sheed getting the call on Dwight in crunch time, but before that Wallace is too important to risk foul trouble. Rookie Gortat appearing in four games in round one was a shock to say the least, but he’s certainly more athletic and active than the ancient Adonal Foyle.
Coach
Flip Saunders v Stan Van Gundy – Flip is probably coaching for his job again, and he’s not very good under pressure to begin with. Saunders does his homework in terms of preparation, but getting his team to listen to him is another story all together. SVG is better at diagramming plays out of huddles, motivating his men and making adjustments in game and game-to-game. Big advantage for Orlando here.
Overall
These squads split the season series 2-2 with each club winning one at home and one on the road. As usual, the winner shot an average of 52.2% compared to the loser’s 41.8% mark. The one thing that really stuck out though is that the Pistons out rebounded the Magic by an average of eight per game. That’s a pretty hefty number in the post season. The other thing worth noting is that in their last meeting of the year on 2/19 Orlando made thirteen 3-pointers compared to Detroit’s two. That can also swing a game.
The Magic might be the least paid attention to good team in the entire NBA, but make no mistake; they have a real shot to pull the upset here. For that to happen R Lew MUST be engaged mentally and not start sulking if he misses his first couple of shots. When he is “on” Orlando is extremely tough to beat. The next thing that needs to transpire is Nelson has to be steady. Not great or spectacular, but he has to make good decisions with the ball and knock down open shots. If Jameer flames out, so will Orlando.
Big picture wise the Magic need to push the tempo and shoot 3’s in transition. That’s their strength and really isn’t the Pistons forte. When the game slows down Orlando has to pound the ball into Howard time after time after time. They have to make Detroit double, trap or whatever, but the important thing is that the Magic dictate play when they have the ball.
The Pistons really have their work cut out for them here because if they take Orlando lightly it will be tee time in Motown before you know it. The Magic also present match up problems for Detroit since they play small ball to start off and then go even smaller off the bench. Besides coming to play every night from start to finish, the Pistons need to turn this into a half court affair where they grind out each and every possession on both ends of the floor.
If Detroit can’t control the pace and tenor of the games, and Orlando gets some confidence rolling, I’m not sure the Pistons will be able to score enough points to get the job done. This is doubly concerning when you consider the fact that Detroit’s offensive has deserted them in May the past two years.
That’s why it’s gut check time for this group of Pistons. If they lose their core of players will almost certainly be broken up. Then their legacy becomes that of a one hit wonder that got some lucky breaks with opponent’s injuries when they won it all.
Prediction: I’m torn here. On one hand Detroit has a massive experience advantage which will no doubt come into play at some point. Then on the other hand you have the young Magic who match up well with the Pistons and have a dominant big man with shooters to space the floor. This is almost too close to call, so I have to go with my gut. Detroit in 7.
posted by D$ at 8:36 PM
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