Jazz at Lakers
Regular Season Numbers and Rank
Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Los Angeles – 44.53% (6th)
Utah – 46.07% (17th)
Rebound Differential
Los Angeles – +1.35 (8th)
Utah – +3.07 (4th)
Point Differential
Los Angeles – +7.25 (3rd)
Utah – +6.87 (4th)
Shooting
Los Angeles – 47.64% (3rd)
Utah – 49.74% (2nd)
3-Point Shooting
Los Angeles – 37.8% (6th)
Utah – 37.2% (10th)
Free Throw Shooting
Los Angeles – 76.92% (10th)
Utah – 75.94% (16th)
Turnovers
Los Angeles – 14.09 (11th)
Utah – 14.63 (19th)
Fouls
Los Angeles – 20.62 (15th)
Utah – 24.02 (30th)
Pace Factor
Los Angeles – 98.0 (6th)
Utah – 95.6 (11th)
Individual Match Ups
Point Guard
Derek Fisher & Jordan Farmar v Deron Williams & Ronnie Price – Even though D Wil is slowed by a bruised tailbone I don’t think Fisher can stay in front of him. Deron needs to take advantage when Fish is guarding him because the Lakers have plenty of more athletic bodies to throw at Williams. I’m sure Derek will hear plenty of boos from the Salt Lake faithful, but I don’t expect it to affect his performance any. Fish just needs to make good decisions with the ball and hit open shots.
Farmar is one of those afore mention bodies. While lacking the ideal strength, Jordan does have the quickness to stay with D Wil on defense, and enough offensive ability to make Deron work on both ends. Price is lighting quick and plays the instant offense role for the Jazz, but Ronnie has a tendency to make bad decisions and get yanked rather quickly.
Shooting Guard
Kobe Bryant & Sasha Vujacic v Ronnie Brewer & Kyle Korver – Staying with the Williams theme, I anticipate Kobe will be the man to check D Wil in crunch time and all other important possessions. On offense Bryant needs to continue keeping everyone involved and taking over only when he senses his squad needs it. Brewer is great at moving without the ball, so Kobe can’t sleep when he’s on Ronnie. Brewer has the length and athleticism to do as good a job as humanly possible on the league MVP, but I worry about his experience since “Mamba” knows every trick in the book.
Vujacic is the last guy who will rotate on to Deron at times. Believe it or not, Sasha is actually a very pesky defender with underrated athletic ability. He also possesses more bulk than Farmar, so after Bryant Vujacic may be LA’s best option to contain D Wil. Korver has absolutely no chance on Kobe, so KK might see his minutes cut as a result of that.
Small Forward
Vladimir Radmanovic & Luke Walton v Andrei Kirilenko & Matt Harpring – Vlad starts mainly because his space cadet mental approach makes him useless off the bench. When Radmanovic decides to play and is active the Lakers are pretty much unbeatable, but he can’t be counted on because he’s so rarely engaged. I’ve always wanted to see AK-47 on Bryant in a playoff series. The reason being that I don’t think there’s anyone in the league with the combination of height, extreme length, athleticism and defensive know-how that Andrei has. The only question with Kirilenko is mental; as is how bad will he want it and can Kobe get into his head? I can’t wait to find out myself.
Walton was big for LA in round one averaging 14 points, 5 rebounds, 3.8 assists and shooting 71% from the field and 80% from three. Now I don’t expect he’ll keep that up, but anything close would be nice. Harpring will also get a chance on Bryant, but more so to be physical and rough him up than actually contain him. While Matt still plays hard, he’s lost at least a step (being kind) and doesn’t get extended time unless he’s making shots.
Power Forward
Lamar Odom & Ronny Turiaf v Carlos Boozer & Paul Millsap – Odom is going to have his work cut out for him here. While Lamar’s length will bother Booz’s mid-range game, I don’t think LO has the bulk to deal with Carlos down low. Odom has to stay out of foul trouble because his rebounding and versatility on offense are extremely important to the Lakers success. Lamar’s best weapon will be to try and take Boozer off the dribble and utilize his quickness advantage and maybe put some fouls on Carlos. After averaging 21.1 points, 10.4 rebounds and shooting 54.7% in the regular season, Boozer is down to 16, 11.7 and 42.9% in the playoffs. This goes beyond one series too as his numbers in April (13.9, 7.4 & 49.4%) are even worse, and when compared to March’s production (22.8, 10.3 & 60.1%) are almost inexplicable. If he’s hurt, he’s not letting on, but it goes without saying that Utah needs Carlos to step up if they are to have any chance.
The bench guys play exactly the same way, and are almost carbon copies of one another. The difference between the two right now is that Turiaf is getting healthy after suffering from tonsillitis against Denver, and Millsap still isn’t himself to my eyes (left big toe). The energy, defense and rebounding these two bring is needed by both of their respective clubs.
Center
Pau Gasol & D.J. Mbenga v Memo Okur & Jarron Collins – This is an intriguing match up since both guys can play inside or out. Gasol prefers the low block, but can work in the high post too. Okur likes to hang out at the 3-point line, but he has an underrated post up game as well. We could see cross matches here also, with Pau on Booz and even possibly Okur on Odom. Since the Jazz never played against Gasol this season it’s hard for me to get too specific, but each man will certainly be challenged to play more defense than they normally like to.
Mbenga played great against the Nuggets in the short spurts he was out there. His activity, athleticism and shot blocking were welcome sights to LA fans. Collins will probably be glued to the pine since all the Lakers big men are too quick for him.
Coach
Phil Jackson v Jerry Sloan – This could really be the main event in the series considering these legends have 2,339 combined wins (regular & post season) between them. Each guy commands respect, demands execution on both ends of the court and is not afraid to bench players who don’t comply. The funny thing is that neither of them is good at in game adjustments, but both are impeccable preparers. Phil is the better game-to-game adjuster and Jerry the superior diagramer of plays out of huddles. It’s hard to go against Jackson here since he has 92 more playoff wins than Sloan does.
Overall
LA won the season series 3-1 with the most impressive victory coming in Salt Lake on 3/20 when the Lakers were without Pau. Not only is LA one of the four teams to beat Utah at home, but the Lakers margin of victory over the Jazz in their three wins was 11.7 points. LA also averaged 116 points a game in those victories, which is impressive since the Jazz allowed 99.34 ppg in the regular season. The weird thing is that in Utah’s lone win on 11/30 Boozer AND Okur didn’t play and the Jazz still won by 24. However the Lakers were on a back-to-back and their third game in four nights and had just played Seattle and Denver (high octane offenses) the previous games. Even though Utah is the superior rebounding club, LA held their own in their four contests this year only getting out rebounded by 2.5 per game.
Both squads are deep, versatile and play offense basically the same way. The Lakers of course run the triangle which features crisp ball movement and unselfish play when it’s clicking. The Jazz run probably the oldest offense in the book based mainly on the pick & roll and high-low post action. Each team also moves well without the ball and makes sharp cuts to the basket which usually result in lay-ups. Both clubs will also look to fast break when given the opportunity, but won’t force the issue either.
We’re talking about two of the top three shooting teams and two of the top four passing teams in the NBA here. The main differences I see are that LA is better defensively and is also the superior road squad (10 more wins than Utah away from home).
I worry that the Jazz won’t be able to score points with the Lakers if the tempo is elevated throughout, so I think Utah’s best chance is to slow things down and pound the ball inside to Booz and Memo. Those two both cause match up problems for LA that Phil will have to solve sooner or later.
As long as the Lakers play their game and don’t let the physicality of the Jazz frustrate them they should be fine. Of course it would help if one or two of Fisher, Farmar, Vujacic, Radmanovic or Walton is hitting their threes every night.
Prediction: D Wil isn’t 100%, Boozer is struggling and LA is peaking at the right time. Boldly typing Lakers in 5.
Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Los Angeles – 44.53% (6th)
Utah – 46.07% (17th)
Rebound Differential
Los Angeles – +1.35 (8th)
Utah – +3.07 (4th)
Point Differential
Los Angeles – +7.25 (3rd)
Utah – +6.87 (4th)
Shooting
Los Angeles – 47.64% (3rd)
Utah – 49.74% (2nd)
3-Point Shooting
Los Angeles – 37.8% (6th)
Utah – 37.2% (10th)
Free Throw Shooting
Los Angeles – 76.92% (10th)
Utah – 75.94% (16th)
Turnovers
Los Angeles – 14.09 (11th)
Utah – 14.63 (19th)
Fouls
Los Angeles – 20.62 (15th)
Utah – 24.02 (30th)
Pace Factor
Los Angeles – 98.0 (6th)
Utah – 95.6 (11th)
Individual Match Ups
Point Guard
Derek Fisher & Jordan Farmar v Deron Williams & Ronnie Price – Even though D Wil is slowed by a bruised tailbone I don’t think Fisher can stay in front of him. Deron needs to take advantage when Fish is guarding him because the Lakers have plenty of more athletic bodies to throw at Williams. I’m sure Derek will hear plenty of boos from the Salt Lake faithful, but I don’t expect it to affect his performance any. Fish just needs to make good decisions with the ball and hit open shots.
Farmar is one of those afore mention bodies. While lacking the ideal strength, Jordan does have the quickness to stay with D Wil on defense, and enough offensive ability to make Deron work on both ends. Price is lighting quick and plays the instant offense role for the Jazz, but Ronnie has a tendency to make bad decisions and get yanked rather quickly.
Shooting Guard
Kobe Bryant & Sasha Vujacic v Ronnie Brewer & Kyle Korver – Staying with the Williams theme, I anticipate Kobe will be the man to check D Wil in crunch time and all other important possessions. On offense Bryant needs to continue keeping everyone involved and taking over only when he senses his squad needs it. Brewer is great at moving without the ball, so Kobe can’t sleep when he’s on Ronnie. Brewer has the length and athleticism to do as good a job as humanly possible on the league MVP, but I worry about his experience since “Mamba” knows every trick in the book.
Vujacic is the last guy who will rotate on to Deron at times. Believe it or not, Sasha is actually a very pesky defender with underrated athletic ability. He also possesses more bulk than Farmar, so after Bryant Vujacic may be LA’s best option to contain D Wil. Korver has absolutely no chance on Kobe, so KK might see his minutes cut as a result of that.
Small Forward
Vladimir Radmanovic & Luke Walton v Andrei Kirilenko & Matt Harpring – Vlad starts mainly because his space cadet mental approach makes him useless off the bench. When Radmanovic decides to play and is active the Lakers are pretty much unbeatable, but he can’t be counted on because he’s so rarely engaged. I’ve always wanted to see AK-47 on Bryant in a playoff series. The reason being that I don’t think there’s anyone in the league with the combination of height, extreme length, athleticism and defensive know-how that Andrei has. The only question with Kirilenko is mental; as is how bad will he want it and can Kobe get into his head? I can’t wait to find out myself.
Walton was big for LA in round one averaging 14 points, 5 rebounds, 3.8 assists and shooting 71% from the field and 80% from three. Now I don’t expect he’ll keep that up, but anything close would be nice. Harpring will also get a chance on Bryant, but more so to be physical and rough him up than actually contain him. While Matt still plays hard, he’s lost at least a step (being kind) and doesn’t get extended time unless he’s making shots.
Power Forward
Lamar Odom & Ronny Turiaf v Carlos Boozer & Paul Millsap – Odom is going to have his work cut out for him here. While Lamar’s length will bother Booz’s mid-range game, I don’t think LO has the bulk to deal with Carlos down low. Odom has to stay out of foul trouble because his rebounding and versatility on offense are extremely important to the Lakers success. Lamar’s best weapon will be to try and take Boozer off the dribble and utilize his quickness advantage and maybe put some fouls on Carlos. After averaging 21.1 points, 10.4 rebounds and shooting 54.7% in the regular season, Boozer is down to 16, 11.7 and 42.9% in the playoffs. This goes beyond one series too as his numbers in April (13.9, 7.4 & 49.4%) are even worse, and when compared to March’s production (22.8, 10.3 & 60.1%) are almost inexplicable. If he’s hurt, he’s not letting on, but it goes without saying that Utah needs Carlos to step up if they are to have any chance.
The bench guys play exactly the same way, and are almost carbon copies of one another. The difference between the two right now is that Turiaf is getting healthy after suffering from tonsillitis against Denver, and Millsap still isn’t himself to my eyes (left big toe). The energy, defense and rebounding these two bring is needed by both of their respective clubs.
Center
Pau Gasol & D.J. Mbenga v Memo Okur & Jarron Collins – This is an intriguing match up since both guys can play inside or out. Gasol prefers the low block, but can work in the high post too. Okur likes to hang out at the 3-point line, but he has an underrated post up game as well. We could see cross matches here also, with Pau on Booz and even possibly Okur on Odom. Since the Jazz never played against Gasol this season it’s hard for me to get too specific, but each man will certainly be challenged to play more defense than they normally like to.
Mbenga played great against the Nuggets in the short spurts he was out there. His activity, athleticism and shot blocking were welcome sights to LA fans. Collins will probably be glued to the pine since all the Lakers big men are too quick for him.
Coach
Phil Jackson v Jerry Sloan – This could really be the main event in the series considering these legends have 2,339 combined wins (regular & post season) between them. Each guy commands respect, demands execution on both ends of the court and is not afraid to bench players who don’t comply. The funny thing is that neither of them is good at in game adjustments, but both are impeccable preparers. Phil is the better game-to-game adjuster and Jerry the superior diagramer of plays out of huddles. It’s hard to go against Jackson here since he has 92 more playoff wins than Sloan does.
Overall
LA won the season series 3-1 with the most impressive victory coming in Salt Lake on 3/20 when the Lakers were without Pau. Not only is LA one of the four teams to beat Utah at home, but the Lakers margin of victory over the Jazz in their three wins was 11.7 points. LA also averaged 116 points a game in those victories, which is impressive since the Jazz allowed 99.34 ppg in the regular season. The weird thing is that in Utah’s lone win on 11/30 Boozer AND Okur didn’t play and the Jazz still won by 24. However the Lakers were on a back-to-back and their third game in four nights and had just played Seattle and Denver (high octane offenses) the previous games. Even though Utah is the superior rebounding club, LA held their own in their four contests this year only getting out rebounded by 2.5 per game.
Both squads are deep, versatile and play offense basically the same way. The Lakers of course run the triangle which features crisp ball movement and unselfish play when it’s clicking. The Jazz run probably the oldest offense in the book based mainly on the pick & roll and high-low post action. Each team also moves well without the ball and makes sharp cuts to the basket which usually result in lay-ups. Both clubs will also look to fast break when given the opportunity, but won’t force the issue either.
We’re talking about two of the top three shooting teams and two of the top four passing teams in the NBA here. The main differences I see are that LA is better defensively and is also the superior road squad (10 more wins than Utah away from home).
I worry that the Jazz won’t be able to score points with the Lakers if the tempo is elevated throughout, so I think Utah’s best chance is to slow things down and pound the ball inside to Booz and Memo. Those two both cause match up problems for LA that Phil will have to solve sooner or later.
As long as the Lakers play their game and don’t let the physicality of the Jazz frustrate them they should be fine. Of course it would help if one or two of Fisher, Farmar, Vujacic, Radmanovic or Walton is hitting their threes every night.
Prediction: D Wil isn’t 100%, Boozer is struggling and LA is peaking at the right time. Boldly typing Lakers in 5.
posted by D$ at 10:05 AM
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