Spurs at Lakers
Post Season Numbers
Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Los Angeles – 43.65%
San Antonio – 45.39%
Rebound Differential
Los Angeles – -7.30
San Antonio – +.75
Point Differential
Los Angeles – +7.10
San Antonio – +.83
Shooting
Los Angeles – 48.75%
San Antonio – 45.37%
3-Point Shooting
Los Angeles – 39.69%
San Antonio – 38.59%
Free Throw Shooting
Los Angeles – 76.00%
San Antonio – 74.13%
Turnovers
Los Angeles – 12.80
San Antonio – 12.67
Fouls
Los Angeles – 23.70
San Antonio – 23.58
Pace Factor
Los Angeles – 97.8
San Antonio – 90.9
Individual Match Ups
Point Guard
Derek Fisher & Jordan Farmar v Tony Parker & Jacque Vaughn – Even with all the good Fish has done this season I’ll most likely be calling for his head by the time this series is over. The reason being is that he has no chance to stay in front of Parker. NONE. Look for Tony to get into the lane at will and wreak havoc on the Lakers defense. Derek would be best served by playing off TP at least two steps and forcing him to be strictly a jump shooter. If Parker makes a fair percentage of them that’s fine because it’s better than him penetrating any time he feels like it.
After being such a big part of LA’s success all season Farmer has completely gone in the tank in the playoffs. He went from shooting 46.1% from the field and 37.1% from three to 26.5% and 20% repetitively. His PER has also dropped from 15.43 to a mind boggling 2.52. It’s a shame too because the Lakers could really use his quickness to defend TP. Jacque will see spot duty behind Tony and nothing more.
Shooting Guard
Kobe Bryant & Sasha Vujacic v Manu Ginobili & Michael Finley – Kobe’s patience, fortitude and trust is his teammates is going to be sorely tested in this series. I have a feeling that the Spurs might let Bryant go wild while focusing on stopping everyone else. If that is the case Kobe *must* stick with what got him here and not go into “hero” mode. I think Bryant is going to have little to no trouble putting the clamps on Ginobili. The reason I say that is because Manu (left ankle) is clearly not moving like he normally does. I also suspect that Kobe is going to step up to the challenge of taking Ginobili out of his comfort zones.
Unlike Farmar “The Machine” has continued his fine play off the bench on into the post season. Vujacic is clearly going to make shots, but his pesky D and agitating demeanor might be more important here. Sasha can guard either Parker or Manu for stretches, allowing Bryant to move over to Tony if need be. Finley will see plenty of time on the court as SA really needs his 3-point shooting. However much like Ginobili don’t expect Fin to be defending Kobe for any extended period.
Small Forward
Vladimir Radmanovic & Luke Walton v Bruce Bowen & Ime Udoka – I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, when Vlade has his head in the game and is making plays/shots LA is practically unbeatable. Of course your guess is as good as mine as to when that will actually happen. Bowen is going to be the primary defender on Bryant and Bruce will surely break out all his best “tricks”. Like the one where his forearm accidentally nails Kobe’s lower back after the whistle. The quality of job that Bowen does on Bryant really depends on what the refs let Bruce get away with. I’m sorry, but it’s true.
Walton has done a fine job filling in for Radmanovic on the many nights the enigmatic Serb takes off. The Lakers are going to need Luke’s passing and movement without the ball against the tough Spurs D. Udoka will undoubtedly be the second option on Kobe and will look to be even more physical with the MVP. Ime is stronger and longer than Bowen but probably not as quick and definitely not as savvy. That said those two are going to make Bryant work hard for everything he gets.
Sidebar: Trevor Ariza (right foot) is back practicing with the team and will be able to play in this series if coach Jackson allows it. Ariza’s length, quickness and overall athleticism will be HUGE for LA on the defensive end. With Manu hobbled Trevor should have no problems frustrating him. Ariza could also be key in containing Parker’s penetration.
Power Forward
Lamar Odom & Ronny Turiaf v Tim Duncan & Robert Horry – If there’s one thing I’m already certain of it’s that Odom can’t guard Duncan. I’m sure Lamar will get his opportunities but LO just doesn’t have the beef to bang with Timmy down low. On the flip side I don’t see a single big man on SA’s roster that can stick with Odom on the perimeter. Lamar abused Utah’s front line by using his quickness to put the ball on the deck as well as making sharp cuts to the hoop without the ball. Coach Popovich is going to have to work some of his magic here unless he decides to go small…which will likely play right into the Lakers hands.
Turiaf is another one that will get a shot on Duncan but Ronny’s lack of size and over exuberance will be exposed big time by TD. Horry showed some life in Game 7 against New Orleans but other than a cheap shot here and a 3-pointer there he’s no longer athletic enough to play a lot against LA.
Center
Pau Gasol & D.J. Mbenga v Fabricio Oberto & Kurt Thomas – While Gasol’s playoff numbers look good (20 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 4.5 apg, 2.9 bpg & 56.8%) I don’t think he’s been playing all that well. His D is soft, his fingers are buttery and his constant falling down is flat out ridiculous. I see this as a career defining moment for him…on the defensive end. He’s going to be the Lakers primary defender on Timmy and I highly doubt the Spaniard will be up to the test. Then again if Pau steps up to the task at hand he’ll forever shed the soft and unable to perform under pressure labels. There's no way Oberto can defend Odom, and since TD probably can't guard LO either, I don’t expect to see a lot of Fab in this series.
Mbenga is going to be to be a very important player for LA because no one else on the Lakers possesses his combination of size, strength and athleticism. The question is can he play smart and stay on the court long enough to make a difference? We shall see. If D.J. flames out checking Duncan maybe Chris Mihm gets a chance, but I don’t see that going any better for LA. Thomas may end up starting and getting first crack at Lamar. While Kurt is an excellent positional defender I don’t think he has the quicks to stay in front of Odom either.
Coach
Phil Jackson v Gregg Popovich – The two highest paid coaches in NBA with a combined 13 championships between them going head-to-head…what more could you ask for? The break down goes like this; Pop is the superior play designer out of huddles and Phil is better at game-to-game adjustments. I give Jackson the edge here solely because he has more versatility at his disposal.
Overall
These squads split their season series 2-2 with the home side winning every game. The winning team always scored over 102 points and the loser 85, but the weird thing is how each club’s shooting percentage was so close in the first three contests. I’m talking .1%, 2.2% and .4% here (the Lakers were 8.2% better on 4/13). The similarities stop there though as the Spurs had the edge in most other metrics.
SA made 4.75 more 3’s per game, had 4.75 more assists per game, 3 more steals per game and committed 5.25 less turnovers per game. LA’s one advantage, and it was a big one, was on the boards where they out rebounded the Spurs by a whopping 10.5 per game (2.75 on the offensive glass as well).
The Lakers tend to lull clubs to sleep by trading baskets with them all night long. The danger in this is that most teams don’t have the depth to keep it up for 48 minutes solid like LA does. I see this as major trouble for the Spurs on two fronts. First, SA has trouble scoring sometimes and the Lakers never do. Second, the Spurs in many ways like to get out and run these days as their offense shifts away from being Duncan-centric and plays more to the strengths of Parker and Ginobili.
So for SA to give themselves their best chance to win they’ll have to muck it up and try to control the tempo. The Spurs would also be wise to pound the ball into Timmy down low again and again and again finally forcing LA to double (something they rarely do). When not running their O through Duncan the ball should be in Tony’s hands letting TP break down the Laker D either by scoring or creating.
LA’s defense is better than most people give them credit for, but I fear that the Lakers just don’t match up well with two of SA’s best three players. (Damn your left knee Andrew Bynum!) What LA does have going for them though is that they are longer, quicker and much more athletic overall than the Spurs are. That and they have best player on the planet.
Prediction: This is really a toss up in my mind as I can make a good case for either side. So it’s with little confidence that I make my selection. Lakers in 6.
Defensive Field Goal Percentage
Los Angeles – 43.65%
San Antonio – 45.39%
Rebound Differential
Los Angeles – -7.30
San Antonio – +.75
Point Differential
Los Angeles – +7.10
San Antonio – +.83
Shooting
Los Angeles – 48.75%
San Antonio – 45.37%
3-Point Shooting
Los Angeles – 39.69%
San Antonio – 38.59%
Free Throw Shooting
Los Angeles – 76.00%
San Antonio – 74.13%
Turnovers
Los Angeles – 12.80
San Antonio – 12.67
Fouls
Los Angeles – 23.70
San Antonio – 23.58
Pace Factor
Los Angeles – 97.8
San Antonio – 90.9
Individual Match Ups
Point Guard
Derek Fisher & Jordan Farmar v Tony Parker & Jacque Vaughn – Even with all the good Fish has done this season I’ll most likely be calling for his head by the time this series is over. The reason being is that he has no chance to stay in front of Parker. NONE. Look for Tony to get into the lane at will and wreak havoc on the Lakers defense. Derek would be best served by playing off TP at least two steps and forcing him to be strictly a jump shooter. If Parker makes a fair percentage of them that’s fine because it’s better than him penetrating any time he feels like it.
After being such a big part of LA’s success all season Farmer has completely gone in the tank in the playoffs. He went from shooting 46.1% from the field and 37.1% from three to 26.5% and 20% repetitively. His PER has also dropped from 15.43 to a mind boggling 2.52. It’s a shame too because the Lakers could really use his quickness to defend TP. Jacque will see spot duty behind Tony and nothing more.
Shooting Guard
Kobe Bryant & Sasha Vujacic v Manu Ginobili & Michael Finley – Kobe’s patience, fortitude and trust is his teammates is going to be sorely tested in this series. I have a feeling that the Spurs might let Bryant go wild while focusing on stopping everyone else. If that is the case Kobe *must* stick with what got him here and not go into “hero” mode. I think Bryant is going to have little to no trouble putting the clamps on Ginobili. The reason I say that is because Manu (left ankle) is clearly not moving like he normally does. I also suspect that Kobe is going to step up to the challenge of taking Ginobili out of his comfort zones.
Unlike Farmar “The Machine” has continued his fine play off the bench on into the post season. Vujacic is clearly going to make shots, but his pesky D and agitating demeanor might be more important here. Sasha can guard either Parker or Manu for stretches, allowing Bryant to move over to Tony if need be. Finley will see plenty of time on the court as SA really needs his 3-point shooting. However much like Ginobili don’t expect Fin to be defending Kobe for any extended period.
Small Forward
Vladimir Radmanovic & Luke Walton v Bruce Bowen & Ime Udoka – I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, when Vlade has his head in the game and is making plays/shots LA is practically unbeatable. Of course your guess is as good as mine as to when that will actually happen. Bowen is going to be the primary defender on Bryant and Bruce will surely break out all his best “tricks”. Like the one where his forearm accidentally nails Kobe’s lower back after the whistle. The quality of job that Bowen does on Bryant really depends on what the refs let Bruce get away with. I’m sorry, but it’s true.
Walton has done a fine job filling in for Radmanovic on the many nights the enigmatic Serb takes off. The Lakers are going to need Luke’s passing and movement without the ball against the tough Spurs D. Udoka will undoubtedly be the second option on Kobe and will look to be even more physical with the MVP. Ime is stronger and longer than Bowen but probably not as quick and definitely not as savvy. That said those two are going to make Bryant work hard for everything he gets.
Sidebar: Trevor Ariza (right foot) is back practicing with the team and will be able to play in this series if coach Jackson allows it. Ariza’s length, quickness and overall athleticism will be HUGE for LA on the defensive end. With Manu hobbled Trevor should have no problems frustrating him. Ariza could also be key in containing Parker’s penetration.
Power Forward
Lamar Odom & Ronny Turiaf v Tim Duncan & Robert Horry – If there’s one thing I’m already certain of it’s that Odom can’t guard Duncan. I’m sure Lamar will get his opportunities but LO just doesn’t have the beef to bang with Timmy down low. On the flip side I don’t see a single big man on SA’s roster that can stick with Odom on the perimeter. Lamar abused Utah’s front line by using his quickness to put the ball on the deck as well as making sharp cuts to the hoop without the ball. Coach Popovich is going to have to work some of his magic here unless he decides to go small…which will likely play right into the Lakers hands.
Turiaf is another one that will get a shot on Duncan but Ronny’s lack of size and over exuberance will be exposed big time by TD. Horry showed some life in Game 7 against New Orleans but other than a cheap shot here and a 3-pointer there he’s no longer athletic enough to play a lot against LA.
Center
Pau Gasol & D.J. Mbenga v Fabricio Oberto & Kurt Thomas – While Gasol’s playoff numbers look good (20 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 4.5 apg, 2.9 bpg & 56.8%) I don’t think he’s been playing all that well. His D is soft, his fingers are buttery and his constant falling down is flat out ridiculous. I see this as a career defining moment for him…on the defensive end. He’s going to be the Lakers primary defender on Timmy and I highly doubt the Spaniard will be up to the test. Then again if Pau steps up to the task at hand he’ll forever shed the soft and unable to perform under pressure labels. There's no way Oberto can defend Odom, and since TD probably can't guard LO either, I don’t expect to see a lot of Fab in this series.
Mbenga is going to be to be a very important player for LA because no one else on the Lakers possesses his combination of size, strength and athleticism. The question is can he play smart and stay on the court long enough to make a difference? We shall see. If D.J. flames out checking Duncan maybe Chris Mihm gets a chance, but I don’t see that going any better for LA. Thomas may end up starting and getting first crack at Lamar. While Kurt is an excellent positional defender I don’t think he has the quicks to stay in front of Odom either.
Coach
Phil Jackson v Gregg Popovich – The two highest paid coaches in NBA with a combined 13 championships between them going head-to-head…what more could you ask for? The break down goes like this; Pop is the superior play designer out of huddles and Phil is better at game-to-game adjustments. I give Jackson the edge here solely because he has more versatility at his disposal.
Overall
These squads split their season series 2-2 with the home side winning every game. The winning team always scored over 102 points and the loser 85, but the weird thing is how each club’s shooting percentage was so close in the first three contests. I’m talking .1%, 2.2% and .4% here (the Lakers were 8.2% better on 4/13). The similarities stop there though as the Spurs had the edge in most other metrics.
SA made 4.75 more 3’s per game, had 4.75 more assists per game, 3 more steals per game and committed 5.25 less turnovers per game. LA’s one advantage, and it was a big one, was on the boards where they out rebounded the Spurs by a whopping 10.5 per game (2.75 on the offensive glass as well).
The Lakers tend to lull clubs to sleep by trading baskets with them all night long. The danger in this is that most teams don’t have the depth to keep it up for 48 minutes solid like LA does. I see this as major trouble for the Spurs on two fronts. First, SA has trouble scoring sometimes and the Lakers never do. Second, the Spurs in many ways like to get out and run these days as their offense shifts away from being Duncan-centric and plays more to the strengths of Parker and Ginobili.
So for SA to give themselves their best chance to win they’ll have to muck it up and try to control the tempo. The Spurs would also be wise to pound the ball into Timmy down low again and again and again finally forcing LA to double (something they rarely do). When not running their O through Duncan the ball should be in Tony’s hands letting TP break down the Laker D either by scoring or creating.
LA’s defense is better than most people give them credit for, but I fear that the Lakers just don’t match up well with two of SA’s best three players. (Damn your left knee Andrew Bynum!) What LA does have going for them though is that they are longer, quicker and much more athletic overall than the Spurs are. That and they have best player on the planet.
Prediction: This is really a toss up in my mind as I can make a good case for either side. So it’s with little confidence that I make my selection. Lakers in 6.
posted by D$ at 8:43 PM
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