7.15.2010

Final Recap & Awards

> Even though I went 7-0 on my picks I was kind of disappointed in the final match because the quality of play was no where near what I thought it would be. Give the Dutch credit for their game plan though. Oranje coach Bert Van Marwijk knew his side had to ugly the game up to have a chance, and they did just that to the tune of NINE yellow cards (14 total, smashing the old record of 6 in a Final).

The only problem was that Holland botched their opportunities to score; especially Arjen Robben who I bet has not been sleeping well lately. Wesley Sneijder did not have his best match and Robin Van Persie was practically nonexistent. The Dutch had their chances but with those three off their top form it was too much to overcome.

In winning their first World Cup Spain scored only eight goals total (11 was the previous low), won all their games in the knockout round 1-0 and were the first team to win it all after losing their first round robin match. Which just goes to show that with all their talent on offense it was their trio in the middle on defense (goalie Iker Casillas/central defenders Gerard Piqué & Carles Puyol) that carried them.

> Awards…..

Golden Ball (best player) – Diego Forlán (Uruguay). He certainly would have received my vote for his ability to control the dreaded Jabulani ball and make it swerve in just the right way.

Golden Boot (top scorer) – Thomas Müller (Germany). He won the boot based on a tiebreaker (most assists), but that shouldn’t diminish his accomplishment since he missed a game due to a dubious second yellow card in the Quarterfinals.

Golden Glove (best goalie) – Casillas. “The Saint,” as he is known, was flat out stellar. You had to beat him outright because anything 50-50 and he was making the save.

Best Young Player – Müller. This is the only award I have a problem with. For my money his teammate Mesut Özil was more deserving, but I guess if you win the boot and are 21 or younger it has to go this way.

7.11.2010

LeBron James and his “Decision”

There are so many angles to this story that I almost don’t know where to begin, but “The Decision” seems like the right place to jump off on this epic post.

The hour+ long TV show was a complete and utter train wreck. How Bron’s people thought that was a good idea is just beyond me. And ESPN has to take at least 50% of the blame for their “production.” It was so bad on so many levels it’s not hyperbole to consider it the worst idea in the history of sports.

For starters LeBron came off really, really bad on TV. He looked extremely nervous and did not seem to be enjoying his moment at all. This was very strange to me considering he created that circus. Not only did James come off bad but so did all the ESPN talking heads save for maybe Jon Barry. The rest fell into three categories; kissing LBJ’s butt (Michael Wilbon), nervous to say the wrong thing (Jim Gray) or combo of the two (Stuart Scott).

Then there was the setting, a Boys and Girls club in Greenwich, CT? The audience was made up of kids that looked scared silly and had no clue how to react when he said “In this fall, I’m going to take my talents to South Beach and join the Miami Heat.” It was just hushed silence after that. Again, I think that was another aspect that wasn’t fully considered when LBJ and his “team” at LRMR hatched this scheme.

I say scheme because there is no way in the world that Bron woke up on the morning of 7/8 and changed his mind to the Heat. I’d say once Cleveland’s season was over and Dwyane Wade told James and Chris Bosh that Pat Riley was going to be able to clear enough salary cap space for all three of them to come to Miami it was a done deal. So it’s clear to me that LBJ, Wade and Bosh were playing front offices and the media alike for well over a month…and they thoroughly enjoyed it too.

So give the three of them credit for taking less than the maximum amount of money and making this happen, but many, many old timers are saying James took the easy way out. Just listen to what former NBA player and current Orlando GM Otis Smith had to say. “I was surprised that he went [to Miami]. I thought he was, I guess, more of a competitor. The great ones do and usually stay in one location. This is a new era. It's a little different than my time.” And my man Otis is not alone in feeling that way at all.

Smith’s comment about it being different than his time is something I’ve been wrestling with in my head for the past three days. Maybe I’m just too old to get it and the younger generation loves every minute of this synergy between the sports and entertainment worlds. I mean he did have several Vitamin Water commercials, a cooler of Vitamin Water in the camera picture and a single XXX for him to drink by his side.

So I can see what LeBron is trying to do but at this point I’m really not sure he’s smart enough to pull off his stated goal of being a global icon. He’s certainly getting bad advice from his high school boyz and one has to wonder if James has ever heard the word “no” in his entire lifetime. There’s other examples of his immaturity too, like when he skipped shaking hands and his post game press conference after losing to the Magic in the 2009 playoffs. But more than anything Bron is just flat out not well spoken. He stumbles over words, uses them in the wrong context and still says “axe” rather than ask for Pete's sake. My point is a global icon would do much better than that.

Then you factor in that LBJ did not call any of the six teams prior to “The Decision” to inform them of his choice and you have yet another example of poor advice, lack of forethought or just flat out ignorance. Maybe it wasn’t necessary for him to inform all six teams, but at the very least he owed Cleveland Owner Dan Gilbert a call, if for nothing else than the sheer amount of enabling Gilbert has done for James over the years.

I understand wanting to control leaks, but Stephen A. Smith of Fox Sports broke this exact story on 6/28 so it was already out there. That said Gilbert’s open letter to fans was a mistake as was his subsequent phone interview with The Associated Press where he said things like “He quit. Not just in Game 5, but in Games 2, 4 and 6. Watch the tape. The Boston series was unlike anything in the history of sports for a superstar.” And “He has gotten a free pass. People have covered up for him for way too long. Tonight we saw who he really is.”

Now Gilbert didn’t have to say any of that stuff and obviously let his emotions get the best of him, but is he right? I believe so. Not only did Bron quit but the Cavalier organization also did everything LBJ ever asked them to do and then some. Gilbert’s biggest mistake was making Bron larger than the franchise. Players should never semi-run the team and/or make decisions. That’s what Gilbert really regrets more than anything, but if he just sat back most of everything he said would have been said in media sooner or later. All he really accomplished with his tirades was making himself look bad while giving James an out to look better.

But luckily for Gilbert’s reputation LeBron hurt his own “brand” on multiple levels. For one he’s going to be hated for the first time in his career. Second the Heat will now take over for the Lakers as the most despised team by casual fans for being a Yankees-like super-team. (He also made Kobe Bryant look good in all this, which is something Kobe never quite figured out how to do for himself.)

Overall it was James’ choice to make, and I don’t begrudge him for it one bit. He was a *free* agent after all so this whole thing about him owing cities or owners anything is just nonsense. HOWEVER, and I think everyone agrees on this point, how he handled it was completely misguided. He should have met with the teams, decided, issued a press release after informing said teams and then had someone like Stuart Scott do a “soft” interview after the fact where he got no hard questions at all. It would have been that simple.

That said I think deep down LBJ wants to be a reality star crossed with a Jay-Z type mogul crossed with a great basketball player. It’s a new model for sure, and while Bron unleashed might not be good for his “brand” or legacy, it’s definitely entertaining in an almost Dennis Rodman kind of way. (If you saw the “Welcoming Celebration” you know what I’m talking about.) He’s either going to be a ground breaking trend setter or a Tracy McGrady could have been.

While it’s obvious that Miami was the worst possible choice for his legacy I also think he missed out on a better opportunity on the court as well. If he had chosen Chicago he’d be paired with a young PG (Derrick Rose) and C (Joakim Noah), a PF in Carlos Boozer that knows how to play off him and a nice trade chip in Luol Deng. Imagine if the Bulls say parlayed Deng and James Johnson into Marcin Gortat and J.J. Redick (not that far fetched)? Rose/Redick/James/Boozer/Noah with Taj Gibson and Gortat off the bench…all Chicago would need is a low priced shooter and a backup PG. Then you are looking at a balanced team that can win right now as well as years from now.

As the Heat are currently constituted I can’t see them winning the title this year, they just have too many holes and don’t have a Rajon Rondo or Kendrick Perkins in the pipeline (apologies to Mario Chalmers & Joel Anthony). Looking at the rest of the Miami roster they are set at SG, SF and PF but need starters at the two hardest positions to fill in the NBA....PG and C (which is why I thought the Bulls were the better choice).

It's a pipe dream to think they are going to be able find the 5 guys needed to get the roster to 13 and contend immediately, and that’s assuming all three second round picks (Dexter Pittman, Jarvis Varnado and Da’Sean Butler) pan out and make the team. After “Miami Thrice” all took either $14 (Wade) or $14.5 (James & Bosh) million the Heat have about $8.1 million is cap space left (that includes Chalmers and the cap holds for Anthony and the second rounders).

They are widely expected to sign Mike Miller next leaving them with about $4 million for the final four roster spots. While Miller is a good fit as 6th man he’s not the guy I’d have dropped that money on. I’d have focused on the best big men available as a priority because shooters are easier to find on the cheap. (And for the record Derek Fisher is not signing there as he is using them for leverage purposes only.)

As for on the court the “Miami Thrice” are going to have to play heavy, heavy minutes all season long because the drop off after them will be STEEP. Also, of the three only LeBron is truly durable. Both Chris and Dwyane are semi-fragile, and if any of them get hurt for a stretch then suddenly their lack of depth will be glaring. They will also be consistently facing sold out riled up crowds and opposing teams that have had the Miami game circled for weeks. This is going to make for some tough sledding for a thin team trying to develop chemistry on the fly.

The days of Bron-Bron wowing the crowd by scoring 30 a game are done. So is his stranglehold on the MVP trophy. For the Heat to win Wade has to be Jordan, James Pippen and Bosh Horace Grant. The reason I say that is because while Wade is a true superstar he doesn't do as much as LBJ does overall. So LeBron has to be a defender/passer/rebounder and D Wade the primary scorer. And while I think CB4 (is it CB1 now?) might be the most overrated “star” in the NBA (3-8 career playoff record), as a 3rd banana playing off those two he will be extremely tough.

Generally speaking in terms of tactics they are going to need lot of shooters. Otherwise they will see zone after zone after zone daring Wade and Bron to beat them from the outside. They will also need some defensive minded guys and multiple big bodies.

As far as how Miami matches up with individual teams they aren’t beating the Lakers unless Bosh gets some major help up front. You have Kobe/Dwyane, Ron Artest/James and then Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom/Bosh. Sorry Heat fans, but its not gonna happen…at least this season anyway.

As for the East you can’t consider them the favorites just yet either.

Boston – Kevin Garnett can contain CB1 just like he does with Gasol and Odom. Paul Pierce does a decent job on LBJ. Ray Allen can’t guard Wade but Dwyane will have to work/run on defense chasing Ray. So who stops Rondo for Miami?

Orlando – The only teams that have beaten the Magic in playoffs have had guys that can single cover Dwight Howard. The Heat have no one to guard Howard at all, and until they do, it ain’t happening.

Chicago – Miami has no one to contain Rose and Noah/Boozer/Gibson is a very tough and athletic front court for Bosh to deal with. (Sidebar: If you are a Heat fan that is excited about the prospect of D Fish just remember he’ll have to check Rondo & Rose in the playoffs…good luck with that.)

Atlanta – They aren’t really a serious threat to beat Miami, but if they can acquire Shaquille O’Neal (allowing Al Horford to be a PF, Josh Smith a SF & Marvin Williams to go to the bench) they won’t be pushed over.

Milwaukee – Don't laugh, they are going to be very deep and versatile. I don’t think they’re better than that Heat mind you, but this is yet another tough/dangerous opponent in their same conference.

You have to keep in mind that Riley gave up first round picks in 2011, 2013 and 2015 in the sign and trades with Toronto and Cleveland. Also a factor is the upcoming new Collective Bargaining Agreement where it’s possible that a hard cap salary cap with no exceptions might be instituted. If that happens Miami just mortgaged their future to make money and not win ringS.

Bottom line though is the Heat are Wade’s team and he'll always have won one as “the man”....something Bron won’t EVER have on his resume. I think James is probably ok with that fact as I believe he’ll be happier playing a complementary Pippen type role in Miami than he was being “the man” in Cleveland. In the end I think this team will be the best in the league within three years and be competing for championships from that point forward until one of the “Miami Thrice” is gone.

7.10.2010

Final

Before the World Cup I filled out two separate brackets and in both I had Spain-Holland as the Final. In the one I filled out prior to the Cup I picked the Dutch. In the other, filled out after the Cup started, I picked the Spanish. So if you’ve been betting on my picks (6-0 so far) proceed with caution.

This match features the second and third best teams per the SPI Rankings as well as the two players vying for the Golden Boot (top goal scorer) in David Villa and Wesley Sneijder. Both sides play a similar style of possession based on quick & accurate passes, feature great midfielders & forwards and will have all their players available.

This is a very tough call for me since Spain and Holland are my two favorite countries to visit and the teams I root for once the USA is eliminated. I think the difference will be Iker Casillas in goal and the combo of Gerard Piqué and Carles Puyol in central defense. I’m expecting a classic match with La Furia Roja coming out on top 3-2 in extra time.

7.05.2010

Semifinals

I’ll try to keep things rolling and build on my 4-0 record in the Quarterfinals. As always, SPI rank precedes…

8. Uruguay v 4. Holland – After a miracle finish in the Quarters against Ghana, La Celeste will be without striker Luis Suárez (red card) and defender Jorge Fucile (yellow cards); while defender and captain Diego Lugano (knee) is questionable. The Dutch have concerns of their own with midfielder Nigel De Jong and defender Gregory Van Der Wiel both missing the match dues to yellows.

While Holland’s defense can be questionable at times I think the loss of Suárez will make Diego Forlán’s job too hard for Uruguay. And if Lugano can’t go I see Wesley Sneijder, Robin Van Persie, Arjen Robben and Dirk Kuyt running wild up top; Oranje 3-1.

2. Germany v 3. Spain – This should be a great match considering each side really doesn’t have a glaring weakness. You’ve got the offensive firepower of Xavi, Andrés Iniesta, David Villa and Xabi Alonso versus Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Mesut Özil. Both teams do have a concern up top though with strikers Thomas Müller (yellows) out for Die Mannschaft and Fernando Torres looking lost on the pitch for La Furia Roja. Spanish manager Vicente Del Bosque has Cesc Fábregas waiting in the wings while the choice is much less certain for German coach Joachim Löw.

So with all that offense out there it’s bound to come down to which side can defend better. Philipp Lahm and Jerome Boateng are going to be severely tested by Spain’s ability to link up passes and find open spaces. While Gerard Piqué and Carles Puyol must mark up and stay home on Germany’s many finishers. I’m giving the Spaniards the slight advantage because of captain and best goalie in the world Iker Casillas; La Furia Roja 2-1 in extra time.