Conference Finals

I guess I can live with going 2-2 in the Conference Semi-Finals when I was staring 1-3 in the face for most of the time.  This past second round was a little weird in that I think a decent case can be made that Washington, Chicago and the Clippers were all the better teams in their respective series’.  IF Nene Hilario grabs a defensive rebound, IF Pau Gasol doesn’t pull his hamstring and IF LA doesn’t utterly collapse on their home floor things probably would have been different.  Maybe in an alternate universe somewhere they are.  Anyway, in the end the top two seeds from each conference are meeting in the NBA’s version of the Final Four, so you can’t really ask for more than that. 

EAST 

Cleveland at Atlanta – The Hawks won the season series 3-1 but this current version of the Cavaliers only played in one of those tilts and lost 106-97 in the A.T.L. on 3/6.  Statistically speaking Atlanta was the better defensive team in the regular season (7^th to 20^th in defensive efficiency) but Cleveland was better at cleaning the glass (7^th to 27^th in rebound rate).  The only other standout difference was pace factor where the Hawks were 15^th and the Cavs 25^th.  Cleveland has actually slowed their pace by almost 2 possessions per game in the playoffs where Atlanta has stayed the same.  The reason the Cavs have slowed down even more is that when you replace Kevin Love with Tristan Thompson and J.R. Smith with Iman Shumpert in your starting lineup suddenly you become a defensive team.  

Without too many people noticing Cleveland has morphed into an old school slow it down and play defense unit since Love got hurt.  That said I’m not sure how Thompson and Timofey Mozgov are going to deal with the bruising quartet of Paul Millsap, Al Horford, Pero Antic and Mike Muscala.  Either LeBron James is going to have play some PF or Coach David Blatt is going to have dust off Shawn Marion or Kendrick Perkins.  Likewise Shumpert can only defend one of Jeff Teague or Kyle Korver at a time, and with Kyrie Irving hobbled, Smith and Matthew Dellavedova are not enticing options for either Teague or Korver.  Watching how Teague and Dennis Schröder were getting around John Wall pretty much at will last round penetration at the point of attack has to be a major concern for the Cavs.  Flipping it around DeMarre Carroll is a good option on LeBron but after him the Hawks are looking at Millsap (too slow) or Kent Bazemore (too small).  With Irving visibly slowed down by left knee tendinitis Teague shouldn’t have too much trouble keeping Kyrie in check. 

When I look at this contest on paper Atlanta has several advantages like health, overall talent, individual matchups, coaching and home court.  The analyst in me thinks the Hawks are the way to go based on all that.  However the cynic in me thinks the East completely stinks and Cleveland has the best player with the most experience.  I also can’t get out of my head how shaky Atlanta has looked in big moments thus far.  The bottom line is that sometimes I really hate the prediction business.  Cavs in 6. 

WEST 

Houston at Golden State – The Warriors won the season series 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 15.3 points per game.  Dwight Howard didn’t play in two of the games and Andrew Bogut one, but for the final two meetings both sides were at full strength and GS won by 25 in Clutch City and 13 at home over the span of four days in January.  Numbers wise these teams were first and second in pace factor, fast-break points and three-pointers made per game (Dubs first in pace & fast-break, Rockets in 3’s).  Needless to say this won’t be a grind-it-out slug fest like the days of yore, but more so a highly entertaining modern day analytics shootout. 

When it comes to individual matchups the Warriors have several solid defenders to throw at James Harden in Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and even Draymond Green could get a turn.  With Patrick Beverley still out injured I expect Houston Coach Kevin McHale to go without a true PG a good chunk of the time since Jason Terry and Pablo Prigioni have no chance against Stephen Curry.  The question then becomes which of Corey Brewer and Trevor Ariza defends Klay and Steph?  Switching them up every now and then might be a good idea so the Splash Brothers don’t develop a rhythm against any one individual.  Another note on matchups, if Green is able to contain Howard on the boards when both teams go small that will be really, really bad for the Rockets.

Overall there’s not much if anything that Houston does better than GS and the matchups really favor the Warriors too.  The Rockets can get hot and beat anybody anywhere when you least expect it but I have a feeling this GS group is on another level than Houston is.  Warriors in 5.

Executive of the Year Conundrum

What is the deal with the current state of the Executive of the Year award?  Bob Myers of Golden State ended up winning it but look at the players he added this year compared to my top 3. 

Myers – Steve Kerr (coach), Leandro Barbosa, Shaun Livingston, Justin Holiday, Brandon Rush & James McAdoo. 

David Griffin (finished 2^nd) – David Blatt (coach), LeBron James, Kevin Love, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, Timofey Mozgov, James Jones, Shawn Marion, Mike Miller, Kendrick Perkins, Joe Harris & Brendan Haywood. 

Daryl Morey (7^th) – Trevor Ariza, Corey Brewer, Josh Smith, Jason Terry, Pablo Prigioni, Kostas Papanikolaou, Clint Capela, Joey Dorsey, K.J. McDaniels & Nick Johnson. 

Dell Demps (10^th) – Omer Asik, Dante Cunningham, Quincy Pondexter, Norris Cole, Jimmer Fredette & Toney Douglas. 

Obviously all of those guys aren’t difference makers but I’ll break it down for you. 

Myers hiring Kerr was a stroke of genius and Barbosa & Livingston were effective rotation players.  After that you are talking end of the bench guys unless you want to be generous and consider Holiday a part time rotation player.  So Myers won the award based on 3.5 additions?  Granted one finished second in Coach of the Year but still we are basically talking THREE pieces here. 

Now compare that to Griffin whose coaching hire wasn’t as successful but it wasn’t terrible either.  Griffin also added FOUR starters in James, Love, Smith & Mozgov AND a sixth man in Shumpert.  Not to mention that Jones, Marion & Miller were all in the regular rotation at various points during the season.  Yet somehow Myers’ resume trumps that?  

Morey added one starter in Ariza and completely rebuilt his bench on the fly with Brewer, Smith, Terry & Prigioni.  Dorsey and Papanikolaou also were in their regular rotation at different times.  No way does what Myers did top that.  

Demps acquired two starters in Asik & Pondexter and two major rotation pieces in Cunningham & Cole.  Jimmer was actually a rotation guy too until Cole took his minutes.  Even that is more than what Myers did. 

Last year’s winner was equally as ridiculous with R.C. Buford taking home the hardware.  (The breakdown would be just as lopsided if I did it.)  So what’s the deal here?  Is EOY now a lifetime achievement award for the guy who runs the team that finishes with the best record?  If that’s the case why do I sit for an hour in front of my computer every April breaking down what each guy did from the draft to the end of the season?  

Without the voting parameters being made public knowledge solving this problem will be darn near impossible since the executives that vote on this award don’t have their ballots published for all to see (like the media does on every other award).  The only way forward is to shame the people that voted for Danny Ainge & Stan Van Gundy first or Sam Hinkie & Mitch Kupchak second.  There’s no rational person that follows the NBA closely that would agree with such farcical votes.  I mean Ainge finished 4^th overall and his team was UNDER .500! 

There’s really no other point to this piece besides me getting all of this off my chest.  (For the record when I deliberate over my choices I only consider GM’s whose teams finished the season above.500.)

/rant

Second Round

I went 8-0 in the first round and picked the correct amount of games in four of the series’.  I also managed to pick 6 of the 8 Conference Semi-Finalists back in October only missing on Atlanta and Houston.  #humblebrag 

EAST 

Washington at Atlanta – The Hawks won the season series 3-1 but the lone loss came when Coach Mike Budenholzer rested all five of his starters late in the season.  Statistically speaking these teams are pretty even with two exceptions.  Atlanta has the edge in offensive efficiency (6^th to 19^th) & true shooting percentage (3^rd to 16^th) but the Wizards hold the advantage in rebound rate (4^th to 27^th).  The main individual battles are going to be Paul Millsap & Al Horford versus Nene Hilario & Marcin Gortat.  If Nene and The Polish Hammer can dominate the paint and glass similar to how Brook Lopez just did the Hawks will be trouble.  When it comes to the backcourt I think Jeff Teague & Kyle Korver are going to struggle to contain John Wall & Bradley Beal.  This is where not having Thabo Sefolosha really hurts Atlanta.  However DeMarre Carroll has the defensive ability to make Paul Pierce a non-factor.  If the Hawks find their 3-point stroke and don’t get killed on the boards they’ll roll.  However something tells me that it might be Washington’s time and a lot of the individual matchups actually favor them as well.  This is a virtual coin flip for me and I’ve gone back-and-forth several times already but since I’m hot right now I’ll go with my hunch.  Wiz in 6. 

Chicago at Cleveland – This is the matchup everyone projected (me included) in the Eastern Conference Finals but expectations have been tempered since then because Kevin Love won’t be playing (freaking Kelly Olynyk).  The Cavaliers won the season series 3-1 but that’s a little misleading since one of the games featured a Cleveland squad that no longer exists.  One thing worth noting though is that the Bulls only win came in the game where Love didn’t play.  Looking at the numbers it boils down to the Cavs being better on offense and the Bulls having the upper hand defensively.  Matchup wise Kyrie Irving versus Derrick Rose will be the main talking point but in reality it won’t be much of a contest.  Cleveland has the best two players in the series with LeBron James and Kyrie but after that Chicago is better 3 through 9 on the depth chart any way you slice it.  J.R. Smith being suspended for the first two games only exacerbates that talent discrepancy too.  Without Love I expect Coach David Blatt to play small a lot with LeBron at PF.  There are two problems with that though.  The first being that James Jones, Shawn Marion or Mike Miller will have to play more, which is not good for the Cavs since all three of them are more or less done.  The second is that Taj Gibson (Bulls best Bron defender) will be able to check James while playing his natural position.  It’s also asking a lot of Tristan Thompson & Timofey Mozgov to defend Pau Gasol & Joakim Noah without fouling over the course of a series.  I expect Kyrie and LeBron to be dominant but after that who steps up for Cleveland?  I’m banking on Chicago’s depth and edge in coaching experience to carry them.  Bulls in 6. 

WEST 

Memphis at Golden State – This was my preseason pick for the Western Conference Finals and back in October I thought the Grizzlies advantage inside and on defense would carry them to the NBA Finals.  Fast forward to now and Mike Conley isn’t playing in Game 1 and Tony Allen & Beno Udrih are both slowed by injuries.  That’s not a good thing when Stephen Curry & Klay Thompson are rested and ready to go.  For Memphis to have any chance at all Zach Randolph & Marc Gasol are going to need to consistently dominate Draymond Green & Andrew Bogut.  Coach Dave Joerger’s best option without Conley might be sliding Courtney Lee to the point, Allen to SG and playing Jeff Green more minutes with the starters.  If both teams were 100% healthy I’m not sure which way I’d go, but with the Warriors being the deeper and healthier side right now it’s hard to go against them.  I figure Conley will return eventually giving the Girz a boost but I don’t think it will be enough.  GS in 6. 

Clippers at Houston – These teams split the season series 2-2 but you can throw that out the window since Dwight Howard didn’t play in any of the games and Blake Griffin missed two of them.  This is yet another matchup of a great offense (Los Angeles 1^st in offensive efficiency) versus a good defense (Rockets 6^th in defensive efficiency).  Houston likes to play fast (2^nd in pace factor) but that has a negative side effect (they were 28^th in turnover ratio).  The Clips were 10^th in pace factor but only 2^nd in turnover ratio and the reason for that is one Christopher Emmanuel Paul.  If you watched him play in Game 7 against San Antonio you know there is no way CP3 will be operating at anywhere near full capacity for this series.  I’m sure he’ll give it a go at some point but being a one-legged man against group that plays as fast as the Rockets do will probably cause more harm than good.  Glen Davis is also dinged up for LA and Houston is without Patrick Beverly & Donatas Motiejunas and Howard is still on a minutes restriction.  The individual matchup I am looking forward to most is Dwight versus DeAndre Jordan for control of the paint; it should be fun to watch.  The Rockets have multiple bodies to throw at Blake in Terrence Jones, Josh Smith, Clint Capela, Joey Dorsey and even Howard can take a turn.  On the flip side outside of Matt Barnes and possibly Dahntay Jones the Clips don’t really have an answer for James Harden.  If CP3 were healthy I’d probably lean LA but at this time of year health, home court and having the best player (The Beard) matters.  Houston in 6.