Conference Finals

I guess I can live with going 2-2 in the Conference Semi-Finals when I was staring 1-3 in the face for most of the time.  This past second round was a little weird in that I think a decent case can be made that Washington, Chicago and the Clippers were all the better teams in their respective series’.  IF Nene Hilario grabs a defensive rebound, IF Pau Gasol doesn’t pull his hamstring and IF LA doesn’t utterly collapse on their home floor things probably would have been different.  Maybe in an alternate universe somewhere they are.  Anyway, in the end the top two seeds from each conference are meeting in the NBA’s version of the Final Four, so you can’t really ask for more than that. 

EAST 

Cleveland at Atlanta – The Hawks won the season series 3-1 but this current version of the Cavaliers only played in one of those tilts and lost 106-97 in the A.T.L. on 3/6.  Statistically speaking Atlanta was the better defensive team in the regular season (7^th to 20^th in defensive efficiency) but Cleveland was better at cleaning the glass (7^th to 27^th in rebound rate).  The only other standout difference was pace factor where the Hawks were 15^th and the Cavs 25^th.  Cleveland has actually slowed their pace by almost 2 possessions per game in the playoffs where Atlanta has stayed the same.  The reason the Cavs have slowed down even more is that when you replace Kevin Love with Tristan Thompson and J.R. Smith with Iman Shumpert in your starting lineup suddenly you become a defensive team.  

Without too many people noticing Cleveland has morphed into an old school slow it down and play defense unit since Love got hurt.  That said I’m not sure how Thompson and Timofey Mozgov are going to deal with the bruising quartet of Paul Millsap, Al Horford, Pero Antic and Mike Muscala.  Either LeBron James is going to have play some PF or Coach David Blatt is going to have dust off Shawn Marion or Kendrick Perkins.  Likewise Shumpert can only defend one of Jeff Teague or Kyle Korver at a time, and with Kyrie Irving hobbled, Smith and Matthew Dellavedova are not enticing options for either Teague or Korver.  Watching how Teague and Dennis Schröder were getting around John Wall pretty much at will last round penetration at the point of attack has to be a major concern for the Cavs.  Flipping it around DeMarre Carroll is a good option on LeBron but after him the Hawks are looking at Millsap (too slow) or Kent Bazemore (too small).  With Irving visibly slowed down by left knee tendinitis Teague shouldn’t have too much trouble keeping Kyrie in check. 

When I look at this contest on paper Atlanta has several advantages like health, overall talent, individual matchups, coaching and home court.  The analyst in me thinks the Hawks are the way to go based on all that.  However the cynic in me thinks the East completely stinks and Cleveland has the best player with the most experience.  I also can’t get out of my head how shaky Atlanta has looked in big moments thus far.  The bottom line is that sometimes I really hate the prediction business.  Cavs in 6. 

WEST 

Houston at Golden State – The Warriors won the season series 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 15.3 points per game.  Dwight Howard didn’t play in two of the games and Andrew Bogut one, but for the final two meetings both sides were at full strength and GS won by 25 in Clutch City and 13 at home over the span of four days in January.  Numbers wise these teams were first and second in pace factor, fast-break points and three-pointers made per game (Dubs first in pace & fast-break, Rockets in 3’s).  Needless to say this won’t be a grind-it-out slug fest like the days of yore, but more so a highly entertaining modern day analytics shootout. 

When it comes to individual matchups the Warriors have several solid defenders to throw at James Harden in Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and even Draymond Green could get a turn.  With Patrick Beverley still out injured I expect Houston Coach Kevin McHale to go without a true PG a good chunk of the time since Jason Terry and Pablo Prigioni have no chance against Stephen Curry.  The question then becomes which of Corey Brewer and Trevor Ariza defends Klay and Steph?  Switching them up every now and then might be a good idea so the Splash Brothers don’t develop a rhythm against any one individual.  Another note on matchups, if Green is able to contain Howard on the boards when both teams go small that will be really, really bad for the Rockets.

Overall there’s not much if anything that Houston does better than GS and the matchups really favor the Warriors too.  The Rockets can get hot and beat anybody anywhere when you least expect it but I have a feeling this GS group is on another level than Houston is.  Warriors in 5.