Second Round

I went 8-0 in the first round and picked the correct amount of games in four of the series’.  I also managed to pick 6 of the 8 Conference Semi-Finalists back in October only missing on Atlanta and Houston.  #humblebrag 

EAST 

Washington at Atlanta – The Hawks won the season series 3-1 but the lone loss came when Coach Mike Budenholzer rested all five of his starters late in the season.  Statistically speaking these teams are pretty even with two exceptions.  Atlanta has the edge in offensive efficiency (6^th to 19^th) & true shooting percentage (3^rd to 16^th) but the Wizards hold the advantage in rebound rate (4^th to 27^th).  The main individual battles are going to be Paul Millsap & Al Horford versus Nene Hilario & Marcin Gortat.  If Nene and The Polish Hammer can dominate the paint and glass similar to how Brook Lopez just did the Hawks will be trouble.  When it comes to the backcourt I think Jeff Teague & Kyle Korver are going to struggle to contain John Wall & Bradley Beal.  This is where not having Thabo Sefolosha really hurts Atlanta.  However DeMarre Carroll has the defensive ability to make Paul Pierce a non-factor.  If the Hawks find their 3-point stroke and don’t get killed on the boards they’ll roll.  However something tells me that it might be Washington’s time and a lot of the individual matchups actually favor them as well.  This is a virtual coin flip for me and I’ve gone back-and-forth several times already but since I’m hot right now I’ll go with my hunch.  Wiz in 6. 

Chicago at Cleveland – This is the matchup everyone projected (me included) in the Eastern Conference Finals but expectations have been tempered since then because Kevin Love won’t be playing (freaking Kelly Olynyk).  The Cavaliers won the season series 3-1 but that’s a little misleading since one of the games featured a Cleveland squad that no longer exists.  One thing worth noting though is that the Bulls only win came in the game where Love didn’t play.  Looking at the numbers it boils down to the Cavs being better on offense and the Bulls having the upper hand defensively.  Matchup wise Kyrie Irving versus Derrick Rose will be the main talking point but in reality it won’t be much of a contest.  Cleveland has the best two players in the series with LeBron James and Kyrie but after that Chicago is better 3 through 9 on the depth chart any way you slice it.  J.R. Smith being suspended for the first two games only exacerbates that talent discrepancy too.  Without Love I expect Coach David Blatt to play small a lot with LeBron at PF.  There are two problems with that though.  The first being that James Jones, Shawn Marion or Mike Miller will have to play more, which is not good for the Cavs since all three of them are more or less done.  The second is that Taj Gibson (Bulls best Bron defender) will be able to check James while playing his natural position.  It’s also asking a lot of Tristan Thompson & Timofey Mozgov to defend Pau Gasol & Joakim Noah without fouling over the course of a series.  I expect Kyrie and LeBron to be dominant but after that who steps up for Cleveland?  I’m banking on Chicago’s depth and edge in coaching experience to carry them.  Bulls in 6. 

WEST 

Memphis at Golden State – This was my preseason pick for the Western Conference Finals and back in October I thought the Grizzlies advantage inside and on defense would carry them to the NBA Finals.  Fast forward to now and Mike Conley isn’t playing in Game 1 and Tony Allen & Beno Udrih are both slowed by injuries.  That’s not a good thing when Stephen Curry & Klay Thompson are rested and ready to go.  For Memphis to have any chance at all Zach Randolph & Marc Gasol are going to need to consistently dominate Draymond Green & Andrew Bogut.  Coach Dave Joerger’s best option without Conley might be sliding Courtney Lee to the point, Allen to SG and playing Jeff Green more minutes with the starters.  If both teams were 100% healthy I’m not sure which way I’d go, but with the Warriors being the deeper and healthier side right now it’s hard to go against them.  I figure Conley will return eventually giving the Girz a boost but I don’t think it will be enough.  GS in 6. 

Clippers at Houston – These teams split the season series 2-2 but you can throw that out the window since Dwight Howard didn’t play in any of the games and Blake Griffin missed two of them.  This is yet another matchup of a great offense (Los Angeles 1^st in offensive efficiency) versus a good defense (Rockets 6^th in defensive efficiency).  Houston likes to play fast (2^nd in pace factor) but that has a negative side effect (they were 28^th in turnover ratio).  The Clips were 10^th in pace factor but only 2^nd in turnover ratio and the reason for that is one Christopher Emmanuel Paul.  If you watched him play in Game 7 against San Antonio you know there is no way CP3 will be operating at anywhere near full capacity for this series.  I’m sure he’ll give it a go at some point but being a one-legged man against group that plays as fast as the Rockets do will probably cause more harm than good.  Glen Davis is also dinged up for LA and Houston is without Patrick Beverly & Donatas Motiejunas and Howard is still on a minutes restriction.  The individual matchup I am looking forward to most is Dwight versus DeAndre Jordan for control of the paint; it should be fun to watch.  The Rockets have multiple bodies to throw at Blake in Terrence Jones, Josh Smith, Clint Capela, Joey Dorsey and even Howard can take a turn.  On the flip side outside of Matt Barnes and possibly Dahntay Jones the Clips don’t really have an answer for James Harden.  If CP3 were healthy I’d probably lean LA but at this time of year health, home court and having the best player (The Beard) matters.  Houston in 6.