Fixture #3

RECAP 

Well we did it.  It wasn’t pretty but advancing out of the Group of Death doesn’t have to be.  Especially when you consider that no side had won their next match after playing in Manaus (except Portugal luckily for us).  Then take into account that we were playing one of the best teams in the world on short rest in the pouring rain on a waterlogged pitch.  All things considered I’d say a 0-1 loss to Germany was a great result.  Plus I don’t think there’s much of argument that we weren’t the second best side in Group G after three matches.  

After the initial shock of the draw on 12/6/13 wore off I always thought we’d advance in second place by beating Ghana and Portugal and then losing to Germany.  And while Die Mannschaft let us down by drawing with Ghana, Germany beating Portugal 4-0 is what allowed us to go through in the end.  We are headed to the knockout round in consecutive World Cup’s (WC) for the first time ever and have a decent chance to make only our second ever appearance in the Quarterfinals (2002). 

The United States Men’s National Team (USMNT) was largely dominated in the match and the numbers back it up.  The German’s had more possession (63%-37%), shots (13-4) and shots on goal (9-1).  But thanks largely to Tim Howard’s brilliance we managed to not look nearly as bad as those statistics would suggest.  As we were hanging on for our lives early, before we gained a foothold in the match, Ghana’s John Boye kicked in an own goal in the 31^st minute of the other match putting us in a pretty good position to advance.  We somehow went into halftime with a nil-nil score line before things got really interesting after the break. 

In the 55^th minute Timmy saved a ripping header from Per Mertesacker off a short corner but the rebound fell right to an unmarked Thomas Müller.  Müller managed to curl the ball right between both Matt Besler and Omar Gonzalez and just past the diving Howard’s fingertips.  At that point things were still ok but then in the 57^th minute of the other match our old friend Asamoah Gyan scored leveling things.  For the next 23 minutes the USMNT was one Black Stars goal away from being sent home.  Thankfully Ghanaian keeper Fatawu Dauda made an utterly boneheaded play in the 80^th minute.  Instead of catching a ball in his six yard box he inexplicably punched it down and it landed right at the feet of one Cristiano Ronaldo.  He calmly put it in the back of the net making every fan of the USMNT breathe a little easier. 

With a spot in the Round of 16 all but assured the USMNT did what they normally do, which is not give up.  Watch this clip and imagine if Alejandro Bedoya had just aimed for the upper left 90.  We would have escaped with a 1-1 draw and extended our unbeaten streak to seven matches.  We weren’t done there though as Michael Bradley smartly took the ensuing corner quickly and after a touch from DaMarcus Beasley Michael whipped a cross in.  DeAndre Yedlin was the first to get a head on it but then it fell right to Clint Dempsey at the far post but his header went over the crossbar.  This all happened in the 93^rd and 94^th minutes proving Everton Manager Roberto Martínez’s claim that the USMNT is the fittest side he’s seen at the WC. 

Gonzalez in the 37^th and Kyle Beckerman in the 62^nd minute joined Jermaine Jones as USMNT players on a yellow card.  If any of them were to get another in the Round of 16 they would miss a potential Quarterfinal match. 

HISTORY 

We’ve actually played the Red Devils twice in recent times.  The first was 0-1 loss in Brussels on 9/6/11 where Nicolas Lombaerts scored in the 55^th minute.  I didn‘t see this match but it was our first on foreign soil under then new Manager Jürgen Klinsmann.  Maurice Edu was deemed offside when he netted the equalizer in the 86^th minute.  From everything I read and remember about this match we looked pretty good and held our own.  That said only five guys that played in that match made the USMNT’s final 23-man WC roster. 

The match I do remember happened on 5/29/13 in Cleveland where the supporter turnout was the worst for a home fixture that I have seen in recent times.  The Belgians dominated play in the first half and when Kevin Mirallas put them up in the 6^th minute it looked like things might get ugly.  Geoff Cameron managed to equalize in the 22^nd minute but in the second half things fell apart.  Christian Benteke tallied in the 56^th and 71^st minutes and we really had no answer for him.  Marouane Fellaini rounded out the scoring for Belgium in 64^th minute and Dempsey brought one back on a penalty kick in the 80^th minute for the final 2-4 score line.  Combining both sides and including substitutes that played a whopping 23 total players saw the pitch that day in Cleveland that ended up in Brazil. 

If Belgian manager Marc Wilmots hadn’t cancelled our scheduled scrimmage on 6/12 in São Paulo we’d be even more familiar with them.  As is Nate Sliver’s Soccer Power Index (SPI) gives the USMNT a 41.1% chance of advancing to the Quarterfinals. As of Monday morning the Red Devils rank 9^th and The Yanks 18^th in SPI.  Another thing to keep in mind is that Belgian fans travel quite well so the American Outlaws will have some competition in the stands.  

LINEUP 

Klinsmann made two changes against Germany bringing in Gonzalez for Geoff Cameron and Brad Davis for Bedoya.  Jürgen said both changes were due the players needing rest.  I can buy that for Bedoya but not so much for Cameron.  My fear of Gonzalez is well documented here but after a few early gaffes he actually played quite well against Germany.  Basically whoever plays out of Omar or Geoff will make me nervous so I’m placing my trust in Klinsy to make the right call.  Davis was pretty non-existent in his 59 minutes and I wouldn’t play him again, even if Alejandro can’t go 90 anymore. 

Jürgen has hinted at more changes coming due to guys needing rest and even broached the subject of Jozy Altidore returning to the pitch.  I’d love to see Jozy back but just because he’s been able to jog for the past six days doesn’t mean he’s ready to go 90 or 120.  I think the best case scenario for Jozy is that he can go 20 minutes as a substitute.  Klinsmann needs to be careful if he uses Altidore though since the possibility of 30 minutes of extra time is always there if the match is tied after 90. 

I can’t see making a change on the back line outside of the Omar-Geoff choice.  I also can’t see how sitting Beckerman, Jones or Bradley would do us any good against a side as talented as Belgium.  Dempsey obviously has to start too and I’d lean toward going back to the Bedoya/Graham Zusi duo as well.  If there is going to be change in the midfield I would hope that Mix Diskerud is the guy brought in.  We could really use his creativity with the ball on offense.  Plus he can’t play any worse than Davis did.  Another midfield option could be to just start the speedy Yedlin since he’s been a difference maker every time he’s seen the pitch in this WC.  It also wouldn’t upset me to see Aron “Iceman” Jóhannsson on the pitch again at some point, especially if we need a goal late. 

PREDICTION 

The good news for the USMNT starts on the injury front.  First and foremost Benteke ruptured his Achilles tendon back on 4/3 and obviously is not in the 23 for the Red Devils.  Anthony Vanden Borre’s WC is over with a broken leg and Steven Defour picked up a red card in their last match against South Korea.  It doesn’t stop there though because Captain Vincent Kompany is dealing with a groin issue and dangerous striker Romelu Lukaku has a bad ankle.  Laurent Ciman and Thomas Vermaelen are also dealing with unspecified knocks.  Let’s be clear though, their danger man is Eden Hazard and by all accounts he’s still playing. 

Most pundits seem to cast the Belgians as super-talented individually but lacking chemistry as a group.  Even with all their talent they have only scored four goals in three matches thus far.  With all four of their goals coming in the final 20 minutes and three of them from subs.  In the WC so far they have led for 25 minutes, been trailing for 45 and tied for 200.  Those numbers certainly back up their apparent lack of finishing.  

The Yanks on the other hand allowed the most shots (55) during the Group Stage and if guys are really tiring we can’t have another match where the opposition dominates possession.  We were able to have our share of possession against Portugal and I expect this match to more closely resemble that one than the other two (it better). It would also be nice if Bradley reached his top form for the first time all WC.  In Michael’s defense according to FIFA he covered the most ground of any player in the Group Stage (23.6 miles).  So being the fittest player on the fittest team or not, he’s got to play a whole lot better because there are no excuses at this point of the WC. 

First kick on 7/1 will be at 5 PM local time (1 PM Pacific on ESPN) and Salvador will be the best weather the USMNT has seen all WC.  Right now it’s looking like it will be sunny (sun will set during the match) and clear with temperatures in the mid-60’s to high-50’s during the match with “only” 50-60% humidity.  Salvador was also the shortest flight the USMNT faced thus far when they landed on 6/29.  We also got an extra day off by finishing second in Group G which I’m sure was much needed.  The one piece of bad news is that Djamel Haimoudi of Algeria has been named the match referee.  To me African refs are always wild cards at the WC since they are so unpredictable in what they call.  We’ve been pretty lucky so far when it comes to refs and I hope this guy doesn’t do us in with a phantom red card or buying a dive in the box. 

Having four full days off and playing in a moderate climate should benefit the USMNT more than the Belgian’s at this point.  Salvador will be the furthest north the Red Devils have traveled and given their injury woes I just think the USMNT will be in better shape physically.  I expect The Yanks to give up an early goal as is our tradition followed by Bradley equalizing at some point thereafter.  With the match tied at the end of 90 this is where our being the fittest side will really kick in.  Look for the Iceman to net the winner as a substitute coming in the second half of extra time for a final score line of 2-1 USA.