Fixture #2

RECAP 

I was oh so very naïve in thinking that this would be the World Cup (WC) where everything went right for the United States Men’s National Team (USMNT).  I should have known better.  Instead this has become just another WC where we bumble along, miss opportunities, make stupid mistakes and barely scrape by (if we even do that).  

In the 5^th minute Geoff Cameron tried to clear a pretty benign ball from Miguel Veloso only to absolutely butcher it.  He looked like someone who had never played the game before and was stammering drunk trying to kick the ball for the first time.  Of course it fell right to Nani with no one around him and just like that it was 1-0 Portugal.  Beyond Cameron I do have a bit of a quibble with how quickly Tim Howard went to ground given how badly Nani had been struggling, but someone that plays for Manchester United isn’t missing that chance regardless.  The USMNT has now conceded the most goals (7) of any team in the first five minutes in the history of the WC.  So we have that going for us, which is nice. 

For the rest of the first half we played pretty well creating chances and having our share of the possession (48%-52% overall) too.  Then again with A Selecção down four starters from their first match (Bruno Alves ended up playing) how could we not?  That number eventually went up to five in the 16^th minute when Hélder Postiga (who has Hugo Almeida’s replacement) went down with a hamstring injury.  Éder replaced Postiga and in the 45^th minute his rebound off a Nani shot forced an unbelievable save from Howard.  If Timmy doesn’t make that save the USMNT is in BIG trouble. 

The second half started with Portugal Manager Paulo Bento taking off André Almeida in favor of William since the USMNT, and especially Fabian Johnson, were having a lot of joy attacking the Portuguese left flank.  Then in the 55^th minute Graham Zusi played Johnson into space, and after occupying backup goalkeeper Beto, Fabian cut the ball back to Michael Bradley for what should have been a tap in but Ricardo Costa’s knee cleared it off the line.  In the 64^th minute it didn’t matter anymore as Jermaine Jones smashed an absolute cracker off a half-hearted clearance attempt by Nani.  Jermaine’s blast was the longest open-play goal (28.4 yards) at the WC for the USMNT in the past 50 years. 

Bento made his final change at the 69^th minute bringing in Varela (remember that name) for Raul Meireles, again on the left side.  If you are wondering about all the chances the USMNT created on the left it’s because Cristiano Ronaldo does not track back on defense…ever.  So Almeida and Meireles were exhausted covering for him in the heat and humidity of Manaus.  USMNT Manager Jürgen Klinsmann countered by bringing in the speed of DeAndre Yedlin for the tiring Alejandro Bedoya in the 72^nd minute.  I thought this was a major gamble by Klinsy but when Jones sprung Yedlin down the right hand side in the 81^st minute it looked like genius.  DeAndre swung a cross into the mixer which eventually fell to Zusi who gathered himself and setup a completely onside Clint Dempsey who used his stomach to score what should have been the match winner that saw us through to the knockout round. 

The chain reaction of events that led to Varela’s equalizer was like a Keystone Cops routine from the age of silent films.  It started when Klinsmann decided to bring in Omar Gonzalez in the 90^th minute.  I said out loud at the time that Jürgen was over thinking the situation.  Not to mention that I have an irrational fear of Omar being anywhere on the pitch, so I was worried that he’d make the mistake that cost us.  When the Gonzalez-Zusi sub was announced the fourth referee had shown four minutes of added time.  Well Graham took his damn sweet time making his way off the pitch which is not an uncommon occurrence in world football when your side has the lead.  Well before Zusi made it over to the fourth ref the time had been changed to five minutes and Omar’s official sub-in time was 90+1.  So to recap Klinsy made an unnecessary sub that ended up adding another minute of extra time.  Grrrr… 

On the final sequence Portugal had a throw in deep in their own end which led to a 50-50 ball around midfield.  I say 50-50 to be kind because it sure as shit looked to me like Bradley lost what should have been an easy ball to control.  In the days following Everton Manger Roberto Martínez along with Alexi Lalas and Michael Ballack have all said that Bradley was not at fault there.  I’ll defer to them even though I don’t totally agree.  Eventually the ball found Ronaldo who delivered an inch-perfect cross (his only completed cross of the entire match) to the head of Varela which he of course put in the back of the net.  I have absolutely no idea what the fuck Cameron was doing ball-watching there.  There’s only one guy that’s dangerous in that build up for cripes sake!  Yet he runs right by both Fabian and Geoff?  Also, why was Gonzalez put in just so he could be out of position when it mattered most? 

Varela’s tally at the death was the latest recorded regulation goal in the history of the WC (90+4:33).  I know soccer isn’t always fair but what did we do to deserve these kinds of things always going against us?  We lose our one and only target man to an injury that a little more stretching or a less strenuous workload could have easily avoided.  Our consensus best player had his worst match against Ghana and followed it up with a missed open net and the key give away that cost us two points and a chance to advance.  Oh yeah, and Jermaine (our best player in the WC so far) picked up a yellow card in the 75^th minute meaning if he gets another versus Germany he’s out for the Round of 16. 

HISTORY 

We actually played Die Mannschaft back on 6/2/13 in our “Centennial Celebration” and beat them 4-3.  Granted that was probably Germany’s B- side as only seven players from that squad made the final 23 for the WC.  We still beat them but they did have an own goal for the record.  That match was actually a big turning point for the USMNT as it was the start of a 12-match winning streak that included three World Cup Qualifiers, six Gold Cup matches and three friendlies.  As defender Mats Hummels pointed out they are not taking the USMNT lightly this time around. 

According to Nate Sliver’s Soccer Power Index (SPI) the USMNT’s chances to advance were up to 75.7% as of Wednesday morning which is up from 67.9% Friday morning.  Nate lays out all the scenarios here but the USMNT advances with a win or draw against Germany or if Ghana and Portugal draw.  We can still advance with a loss as long as we win the tiebreaker between the winner of the Ghana-Portugal match.  The first tiebreaker is goal differential followed by total goals scored.  There are four more tiebreakers after that but I doubt it comes to those for the USMNT. 

LINEUP 

With Jozy Altidore already ruled out of the match I wouldn’t make any changes to the XI Klinsmann started against Portugal unless there is an injury that I don’t know about.  As for subs Jürgen seems to have the magic touch there getting contributions from John Brooks and Yedlin, two guys I would have never played unless I was forced to. 

PREDICTION 

The USMNT arrived back at their base hotel in São Paulo at 5 AM on 6/23 after the four hour flight back from Manaus.  They left for Recife after light training on 6/24 so that is an extremely quick turnaround for a match on 6/26 (9 AM Pacific on ESPN).  Especially when you consider that the Germans will have a full extra day of rest on us.  First kick in Recife is at 1 PM local time and rain is in the forecast.  I think rain could be an advantage for the USMNT if it blocks out the mid-day sun and makes the pitch a sloppy mess.  Even if the rain doesn’t play a factor at least we get to wear our white kits again. 

Die Mannschaft is 3^rd in the SPI rankings and The Yanks are 18^th so that is a big step in quality from Portugal (15^th) and Ghana (16^th).  That said Germany is definitely slow on the back line as Ghana exposed badly so we will create plenty of chances like we always do these days.  The two questions I have are can we avoid the terrible mental mistakes that continue to haunt us at the WC?  (I’m looking at you Geoff Cameron!)  And will Bradley step up and play like he is supposed to?  I’m thinking the answer to both of those is no which is why I see us losing the match. 

Then it moves on to how many goals do we lose by because I see Ghana laying it on Portugal in a big way, winning by at least two goals.  So if the Black Stars win 3-1 and we lose 0-1 that’s all she wrote and this is the outcome I expect because that is straight up how we roll at the WC.  If Germany would have just beaten Ghana none of this would matter because the Black Stars would be eliminated now and them beating A Selecção wouldn’t affect us at all.  The referee for USA-Germany will be Ravshan Irmatov from Uzbekistan who apparently is one of the best in the world.  That puts my mind at ease a little.  The ref for Ghana-Portugal will be Nawaf Shukralla from Bahrain which I like far, far less. 

Just for the record if you would have offered me four points after two matches before the WC I would not have taken it because I wanted six so that the Germany match would be meaningless.  This whole thing is a crying shame (I’M STILL LOOKING AT YOU GEOFF CAMERON!!!) because the USA-Portugal match was the highest rated sporting event outside of NFL playoff games and the Super Bowl.  It pulled better ratings than the NBA Finals and World Series and was on par with the BCS Championship game.  Yes, for real.  Now the USMNT will lose all the traction they gained over the last ten days and be right back where they started, as an afterthought to most Americans. 

Or maybe I just need to take some advice from The Most Interesting Man in the World…