Conference Finals

EAST 

Miami at Indiana – The two best records from the East face off in the series that everyone has been waiting on all year.  They split their season series 2-2 AND the last 14 games they have played against each other including the playoffs.  When things have been that even for that long there’s bound to be some bad blood and indeed these two sides don’t like each other much.  So there will be plenty of trash talking and near fracases after the whistle to look forward to.  

On the court the main event will be LeBron James versus Paul George.  George came of age against Bron in last year’s Conference Finals and something about the matchup brings out the best in Paul.  Lance Stephenson will be tasked with containing Dwyane Wade, a job that he is well suited for.  David West has always presented the Heat with issues so I expect to see a lot of Chris Bosh on him rather than the decrepit Udonis Haslem. 

Atlanta made the Pacers look vulnerable by spreading them out with five shooters and Miami has the personnel to do the same.  The problem for the Heat though is that Shane Battier and Rashard Lewis are barely playable at this point in their careers.  This has forced Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra to go deep into his bench and play James Jones, but a lineup of Wade, Ray Allen, Jones, LeBron and Bosh could really give Indy problems.  The flip side of that is the Pacers will kill Miami on the boards when that unit is out there.  That’s why I expect the Heat to play more conventionally than most with a lot of Chris Andersen on the floor whenever Roy Hibbert isn’t hiding in his shell. 

I know Indy has been floundering for months but this is what they have been waiting for since last year so I anticipate them being intense and ready to go from the jump.  That said they are bound to look bad for long stretches or even a game or two and I’m not sure they are mentally tough enough to recover anymore.  I picked the Pacers in the preseason, and even though I think they’ll put on a better showing than most, their offense just isn’t consistent enough at this point to hang with Miami.  Heat in 6. 

WEST 

Oklahoma City at San Antonio – Unfortunately the story line heading into the clash of the two best records in the West is injuries.  Serge Ibaka has been ruled out of the rest of the post season with a left calf injury.  This leaves the Thunder in a real bind as Ibaka was their best rebounder, shot blocker and third best player overall in the regular season.  Nick Collison will be called on to pick up the bulk of his minutes and rookie Kiwi tough guy Steven Adams will see some more run too.  The problem is that OKC’s fifth big man is Hasheem Thabeet and Thunder Coach Scott Brooks isn’t crazy enough to play him.  That means Kendrick Perkins also has to play more, much to the chagrin of the stat geek community.  

On the Spurs side Tony Parker is nursing a Grade 1 strain to his left hamstring.  Supposedly this isn’t as bad as the one he suffered in last year’s NBA Finals so he’s not expected to miss any time.  That doesn’t mean he will be his normal speedy self though and Patty Mills could see an uptick in minutes as his backup.  Kawhi Leonard will draw the Kevin Durant assignment but after that SA really has no decent matchup for the MVP.  With Parker likely hobbled and not the greatest defender to begin with I suspect Danny Green to be given first dibs on Russell Westbrook.  Honestly though there’s not a lot of great options for Spurs Coach Gregg Popovich when it comes to KD and Russ, which is probably why OKC went 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 9.3 points against SA this season. 

A big man rotation of Collison, Perk and Adams doesn’t exactly inspire confidence so it would behoove Brooks to go small with KD as his PF for stretches.  In fact the best lineup for the Thunder might be Reggie Jackson, Westbrook, Caron Butler, KD and one of Adams or Collison.  Scooter doesn’t really have a reputation as an offensive innovator but being unconventional might be the only shot OKC has without Ibaka.  The Spurs can matchup with anything Brooks puts out there but if Pop plays the combo of Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter when KD is at the 4 that will be a problem for the Thunder that could land Durant in foul trouble. 

A healthy OKC proved to be far too athletic for SA this season so I don’t want to overreact to the loss of Ibaka.  At the same time I have a hard time seeing how any team could survive the loss of their third best player in the Conference Finals.  Then there’s Parker being less than 100% to factor in as well.  I have a feeling that this will be a better series than people think but I just can’t pick the Thunder without Serge.  Spurs in 6.