Second Round

EAST 

Washington at Indiana – The Wizards come into this series healthy and fresh after five full days of rest.  As opposed to the Pacers who look unstable mentally after being pushed to the absolute brink by Atlanta.  The Hawks gave Indy trouble by spreading them out with five 3-point shooters on the court together but the problem for Washington is that their big men don’t shoot 3’s outside of the seldom used Al Harrington.  That means this series will be played much more traditionally with both teams playing two bigs most of the time.  I view that as an advantage for the Pacers even with Nene Hilario playing out his mind and Roy Hibbert looking totally lost.  John Wall and Bradley Beal paced the Wiz against Chicago but Indy has George Hill, Lance Stephenson, C.J. Watson and even Paul George to defend Washington’s young backcourt.  Conversely Trevor Ariza and Martell Webster have to be up to the challenge of limiting Paul George.  This series will undoubtedly be hard fought and not very pleasing to eye for long stretches and I think that favors the Pacers.  I’m sure some experts will be on the Wiz but I can’t do it.  Indiana in 7. 

Brooklyn at Miami – This is the series that everyone wanted to see since the Nets went 4-0 against the Heat in the regular season.  That 4-0 is a touch misleading since Dwyane Wade didn’t play in two of the games, three of the wins were by one point and the fourth was a double overtime game where LeBron James fouled out.  That said these teams are extremely even statistically so you can expect a few tight games decided in crunch time.  Paul Pierce and Andrei Kirilenko will be the primary defenders of LeBron with Joe Johnson, Shaun Livingston and Alan Anderson drawing Wade.  Kevin Garnett used to own Chris Bosh but KG will need help from Andray Blatche and rookie Mason Plumlee this time around.  Brooklyn Coach Jason Kidd likes to go small and play unconventional lineups but unfortunately for him Miami can match anything he puts out there thanks to the versatility of James and Bosh.  After having watched them in the Toronto series I worry that the Nets offense will go dormant now and then with the Heat taking advantage by putting big runs on them.  In the end I don’t see this as the epic contest that most do.  Miami in 5. 

WEST 

Clippers at Oklahoma City – These teams are pretty evenly matched statistically but the Thunder have the slight edge everywhere with rebounding being their biggest advantage.  OKC has the bodies in Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins, Nick Collison and Steven Adams to deal with Blake Griffin and the surging DeAndre Jordan.  Where I worry about Los Angeles is who defends Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook?  Matt Barnes is a decent option for KD but after him the drop off is huge with the next best alternatives being Danny Granger and Jared Dudley.  Normally I’d say Chris Paul versus Russ would be the main attraction but CP3’s right hamstring is obviously limiting his ability to move.  The best choice to guard Westbrook is probably Darren Collison right now followed by the rarely seen Willie Green.  The Thunder will need Thabo Sefolosha to get out of his funk to chase J.J. Redick and spend some time on CP3 as well.  At this point in the playoffs health becomes a determining factor and CP3’s hammy isn’t going to miraculously heal when there are games every other day.  OKC in 7. 

Portland at San Antonio – These teams split the season series 2-2 and are statistically pretty even with the Trail Blazers being the superior rebounding side and the Spurs better on defense and from the 3-point line.  The individual matchups are nice all around headlined by Damian Lillard versus Tony Parker in a battle of speed demons.  Then there’s LaMarcus Aldridge going up against his idol in Tim Duncan.  Not to be forgotten are Nicolas Batum and Kawhi Leonard trying to out-do-it-all each other.  Wes Matthews and Mo Williams versus Danny Green and Manu Ginobili should be entertaining too.  Lastly there’s role playing big men Robin Lopez and Tiago Splitter who will more than likely be cross-matched on Duncan and Aldridge respectively.  With the matchups so even coaching could be the difference maker and I have to side with SA’s Gregg Popovich over Terry Stotts there.  That said I’m seeing one blowout for each team on their home court with every other game being closely contested.  I know Portland just proved against Houston that they can execute in big moments but so can the Spurs and I like SA’s depth a little more.  Spurs in 6.