Tap Dancing

I was originally a little disappointed in going 12 for 16 on my playoff picks until I looked at the spreadsheet I keep comparing my picks to various NBA experts whose opinions I respect.  (Yes I actually do this, and have for years.)  Well as it turns out they ALL also went 12 for 16 meaning all I needed was 1 more correct to beat the “experts” (as I have a few times in my career).  I’m pretty happy being one of two that had 7 of 8 in the West considering this little fact: If Oklahoma City beats Detroit in the final inter-conference game of the season the West would tie its best winning percentage ever against the East (.733). 

EAST 

I had in… 

6. New York Knicks – When you look at how crappy the East is this team really has no business missing the playoff with the talent they have.  The biggest questions I have about their season are for (soon to be former) Coach Mike Woodson.  #1 why on earth did he wait until 3/3 to start Ray Felton, J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony, Amar’e Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler together (his five most talented players)?  #2 what possessed him to start Andrea Bargnani for 39 of the 42 games Bargs was available?  New team President Phil Jackson certainly has his work cut out for him because fixing this mess won’t be easy…or quick. 

7. Detroit Pistons – Let’s see here…President Joe Dumars fired Coach Maurice Cheeks after 50 games and then resigned himself after 81 games.  No one ever thought that Joe D would make the same mistake he did in the summer of 2009 when he blew all of his salary cap money on Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva.  So when he did it again this past summer with Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings the writing was probably on the wall.  As for me picking them I knew Cheeks wasn’t an NBA-level coach but I figured with this much talent in a weak conference that they had to make the playoffs by default.  If Owner Tom Gores is wise when picking his new GM this team could immediately be middling with a few smart moves. 

8. Cleveland Cavaliers – This is what I get for picking a team coached by Mike Brown.  I was gambling on Kyrie Irving just being too good to let his team miss the playoffs.  Well Kyrie posted the lowest PER of his career in Brown’s give-the-ball-to-my-superstar-while-everyone-else-stands-around-and-watches-him offense.  There’s no shame in not being as good as LeBron James or Kobe Bryant but when you are getting into a scuffle with a teammate during a players only meeting you might not be ready to be a leader.  Dan Gilbert is another owner looking for a new GM but I doubt a good candidate will want the job with Brown under contract for the next four years. 

I had out… 

9. Atlanta Hawks – Yes the Hawks are an under .500 playoff team but there’s no denying the job rookie Coach Mike Budenholzer did with this group.  He didn’t have his best player (Al Horford, torn right pectoral) for 53 games and expected sixth man Lou Williams was a shadow of his former self coming back from ACL surgery (lowest PER since his rookie year).  Let’s put it this way, if you switched Cheeks and Bud the Pistons are in the playoffs with ease.  I came oh so close to having them in the playoffs but Irving’s superstar-ness swayed me.  I won’t make the mistake of underestimating Coach Bud again. 

10. Toronto Raptors – Dwane Casey was a lame duck coach heading into season, so when new GM Masai Ujiri dumped Rudy Gay after 18 games it looked like the tank job was on.  They were 6-12 at the time of the trade and then a funny thing happened…they started winning, and big.  Since the trade they went 42-21 and ended up winning the Atlantic Division rather easily.  Now the question becomes can Masai really let Casey go and bring in his own guy, especially if they win a round in the playoffs? 

14. Charlotte Bobcats – It’s quite obvious that I had the soon to be Hornets once again ranked way too low in my preseason rankings.  I knew next to nothing about rookie Coach Steve Clifford and I had no idea who would score for them outside of Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker.  Well they are 23^rd in offensive efficiency so I was right there.  What I whiffed on was how good their D would be under Clifford (6^th in defensive efficiency).  Their salary cap situation is good going forward and Owner Michael Jordan seems to be listening to the voice of GM Rich Cho over long time crony President Rod Higgins.  The future might actually be bright for once in the Queen City. 

WEST 

I had in… 

7. Minnesota Timberwolves – I’ll save you the stat geek stuff about how a team with a +2.78 point differential is expected to win such-and-such amount of games or how they might have the best scoring margin of any non-playoff team in NBA history.  Instead I’m going to point to Amin Elhassan’s piece on Ricky Rubio and his colleague Tom Haberstroh’s write up on Kevin Martin (both are in$ider).  The gist of both articles is the same…the Wolves STUNK to high heaven in crunch time and Rubio and Martin’s combined weaknesses were the culprit.  In super-clutch situations (games within 3 points & under 1 minute to play) Minny was 7-18 and outscored by 49 points in 22 minutes.  That is so unfathomably bad that no amount of Kevin Love could overcome it.  This is a pivotal summer for President Flip Saunders as he’ll likely be in the market for a new coach and have to deal with possibly trading a legitimate superstar in his prime. 

I had out…

11. Dallas Mavericks – When I looked at this roster back in October I thought there was no way they’d play defense, rebound or share the ball on offense.  Well I was partially right since they are 22^nd in defensive efficiency and 24^th in rebound rate.  Where I was wrong was on the other end of the court where they are 6^th in true shooting percentage, tied for 4^th in assist ratio and 3^rd in offensive efficiency.  If you would have told me that Monta Ellis was going to lead them in minutes per game I’d have been looking for Dirk Nowitzki to strangle him at some point in January.  The lesson here is never underestimate what Coach Rick Carlisle can do with a clipboard.  Duly noted and won’t happen again.