Conference Finals

Going 4-0 on my predictions in the second round is more like it and runs my playoff record to a semi-respectable 9-3.  I still have three more wins to get but this is as good of a time as any to mention that I had five of the final eight and two of the final four teams correct back in October. 

EAST 

Indiana at Miami – In the regular season the Pacers were not only the best defensive unit (42% opponent shooting) but they were also the best squad at defending the three (32.7% opponent 3-point shooting).  This is important because the Heat were the best shooting side (49.6%) and second best 3-point shooting club (39.6%).  One major statistical difference between these two teams is rebounding, where Indy was the best in the league (+5) and Miami tied for 20^th (-1.5). 

As far as individual matchups go the Pacers have Paul George to defend LeBron James, and while no one can stop James, George has both the length and athleticism to hang with LeBron.  Bron’s biggest advantage over Paul is on the low block, but since George just hung with Carmelo Anthony down there his disadvantage might not be that pronounced.  Dwyane Wade’s right knee apparently has three different bone bruises inside it and he has quite obviously not been himself which gives Lance Stephenson a better than average shot to limit Wade’s effectiveness. 

The one disadvantage I see for Indy is who defends Chris Bosh?  If Bosh’s head is in the game and he’s not wearing a skirt he’s too long for David West to handle in the low post.  If Pacers Coach Frank Vogel moves Roy Hibbert on to Chris then Bosh will undoubtedly draw Roy away from the paint and use his superior mobility to get Hibbert into foul trouble.  Another negative for Indy is if Roy isn’t planted in the paint their defensive structure will fall apart. 

The Pacers are equipped to beat the Heat since they defend the three, rebound and pound the ball inside but Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra just has more depth and ways to play at his disposal.  I probably give Indy a better chance than most here; in fact I would not be shocked if they pulled the upset, especially if Wade can’t produce at his normal levels.  That said the Pacers go through scoring droughts every game and the Heat excel at putting big runs on their opposition.  Miami in 6. 

WEST 

Memphis at San Antonio – This series features several big time matchups so we’ll start at the top with Tony Parker versus Mike Conley.  Parker didn’t look like himself after hurting his left calf in the last series whereas Conley is really coming into his own right now.  Mike is a better defender so straight up against a less than 100% Tony it’s advantage Conley.  But I expect to see a lot of Danny Green and some of Kawhi Leonard on Mike and some each of Tony Allen and Quincy Pondexter on Parker.  

Next up we have Manu Ginobili versus Allen and with how old Manu has looked recently I have no doubt that Tony can control Ginobili’s contributions.  The big men are where it gets really interesting though pitting Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter against Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.  On paper they look very evenly matched size wise but Duncan noticeably slowed down over the course of the last series after banging with Andrew Bogut every game.  Splitter’s defense will be a big key to the Spurs chances because I don’t think Matt Bonner, Boris Diaw or DeJuan Blair can guard Z-Bo or Marc effectively, much less rebound with them. 

I expect these games to be ugly slow it down and pound the ball inside affairs.  So if the refs call it closely the advantage swings to SA because they have more quality depth and Coach Gregg Popovich has more versatility in the ways he can coach, although I have my doubts that “small ball” will be effective against the Grizzlies.  Another advantage for the Spurs is their superior 3-point shooting but I think Memphis can defend Parker, Ginobili and Duncan one-on-one limiting the open looks for SA’s role players.  This series could obviously go either way but something tells me the Griz are this year’s team of destiny.  Memphis in 6.