First Round

EAST

Boston at New York – For the Celtics to have any chance Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett’s left ankles must be close to 100%.  The Knicks will likely be without Amar’e Stoudemire (right knee) for the series and Pablo Prigioni (right ankle) is questionable for Game 1.  I see this one being very testy since Boston needs to ugly it up to have a chance but in the end I just don’t think the Celtics can score enough points consistently to hang with New York’s offense.  Knicks in 7.

Chicago at Brooklyn – With Joakim Noah (right foot) doubtful for the series, Taj Gibson (left knee) not himself and Derrick Rose (left ACL) still not quite ready this is going to be tough for the Bulls.  By comparison only Gerald Wallace (left knee) isn’t right for the Nets.  Chicago needs to make this ugly and hope their defense is enough but I don’t see the Bulls having enough to consistently stop Brook Lopez and the rejuvenated Deron Williams.  Brooklyn in 7.

Atlanta at Indiana – George Hill (groin) and Paul George (abdomen) are not 100% for the Pacers and Josh Smith (left knee) and Al Horford (left shoulder) aren’t right for the Hawks.  The key for Atlanta will be hitting their 3s against the NBA’s best defensive and rebounding team.  I doubt the games will be very exciting to watch but Indiana is just better at the slow down game than the Hawks are.  Pacers in 5.

Milwaukee at Miami – I don’t care what Brandon Jennings says the Bucks don’t have a chance here.  Heat in 4.

WEST

Golden State at Denver – The Nuggets will be without Danilo Gallinari (left ACL) and both Ty Lawson (right foot) and Kenneth Faried (left ankle) aren’t 100%.  Compared to that the Warriors are very healthy with only Andrew Bogut (left ankle) slowed.  These games should be very entertaining high scoring affairs and I give GS a punchers chance because of their superior health and league best 3-point shooting.  In the end I’ll take home court advantage and the coaching experience of George Karl over Mark Jackson.  Denver in 7.

Memphis at Clippers – The Grizzlies have been my dark horse pick to win the West all season but unfortunately for them they are running into their kryptonite.  Los Angeles has more health issues with Caron Butler (right knee) and Chauncey Billups (right groin) both slowed, while Memphis only has sixth man Jerryd Bayless (right knee) dinged, but it doesn’t change the fact that the Clippers have owned the Grizzlies the past two years.  This is going to be a tough series with a few shoving matches but in the end Chris Paul’s brilliance overcomes Tony Allen’s defense.  LA in 7.

Lakers at San Antonio – It seems like everyone is giving Los Angeles a chance because Manu Ginobili (right hamstring) and Tony Parker (left ankle) aren’t right and Stephen Jackson was shockingly released with just four games left in the season (they signed Tracy McGrady to replace him).  So it seems all is not rosy for the Spurs on several levels.  That said the Lakers are far from healthy themselves.  Steve Nash (right hip/hamstring/back) hopes to play in Game 1 but Kobe Bryant (left Achilles) and Jordan Hill (left hip) are out and Metta World Peace (left knee) is still slowed.  SA plays better defense and shoots the 3 better and that will be enough to carry them.  Spurs in 5.

Houston at Oklahoma City – Finally we have a series where both teams are healthy for the most part.  You can expect this tilt to feature lots of open court play and scoring but the Thunder are the better defensive, rebounding and 3-point shooting team.  OKC has been taking some flak for perceived chemistry issues lately and I expect them to play like they are on a mission.  Thunder in 5.