Mid-Season Report

With the defending champion Miami Heat finally playing their 41st game on 1/27 every team in the Association has now reached the midpoint of their season. I never imagined when I joined the staff at MMM that I’d still be writing about the NBA ten years later, yet here we sit with the tenth annual MSR. Since I went heavy on the statistics in the QPR I’m going to attempt to make this MSR a little more off the cuff so I apologize in advance if your team gets short shrift.

* = teams I had making the playoffs in October

EAST

1. *Miami Heat (28-13) – I can’t tell you how many of their games I’ve tuned into early only to go away because they are so difficult to watch due to how much they coast. However when they decide to turn it on around the 7-8 minute mark of the fourth quarter they are a sight to behold as no lead is too big for them to erase. They definitely have rebounding issues that could bite them against bigger sides but their defense (when they feel like it) and 3-point shooting still makes them the heavy favorites to represent the East in the Finals.

2. *New York Knicks (27-15) – Things were going great for them until Ray Felton broke his right pinky finger and missed 12 games. Then the wheels started to come off a bit and their age started to show. Now that they are fully healthy, outside of Marcus Camby & Rasheed Wallace (left feet), with Amar’e Stoudemire adjusting to his bench role and Iman Shumpert back starting next to Felton I expect them to go on a big run very soon. They can certainly challenge Miami in seven games but I don’t think they can really beat the Heat.

3. *Chicago Bulls (26-17) – It’s amazing to me how well they have done without Derrick Rose (left ACL) playing a game, which just goes to show how far good defense can carry a team. Coach Tom Thibodeau has been riding Luol Deng and Joakim Noah a little too hard for my taste and that could prove fatal come the post season. Their outlook all depends on what Rose can do when he returns. If he is 70-80% of himself they could be very dangerous and “the team no one wants to play” in the East.

4. *Brooklyn Nets (26-18) – Firing Avery Johnson after 28 games turned out to be a brilliant move by Owner Mikhail Prokhorov since they have gone 12-4 under interim Coach P.J. Carlisemo. P.J. has loosened the reins some and his guys have responded. Brook Lopez is playing so well that hardly anyone notices how bad Joe Johnson, Gerald Wallace and Kris Humphries have been. I don’t see them as a threat to Miami but they can give anyone else in the East a run for their money.

5. *Indiana Pacers (26-18) – Yet another club that has gotten by on defense and rebounding without their best player. The question is with the emergence of third-year SF Paul George as an All-Star will President Donnie Walsh and GM Kevin Pritchard look into trading Danny Granger (left knee) when he returns? These guys are not fun to watch at all but when the playoffs roll around they will be ready to physically grind with anyone over seven games. I just don’t see them having enough offensive firepower to take down the Heat.

6. *Atlanta Hawks (25-19) – They started out well but the dysfunction that comes with personal agendas and injuries have set in now. You’ve got a new GM in Danny Ferry, a lame duck coach in Larry Drew and Josh Smith declaring that he’s a maximum contract player. Not to mention that high scoring sixth man Lou Williams (right ACL) has been lost for the season. If Ferry doesn’t swing a major trade this bunch has enough talent to make the playoffs in the East, but they will be one-and-done when they get there.

7. Milwaukee Bucks (23-19) – When Scott Skiles resigned after 32 games I was sure GM John Hammond would be next out the door but in a surprise move (to me anyway) Owner Herb Kohl gave Hammond a shiny new 3-year contract extension. Umm, ok. Anyway interim Coach Jim Boylan has decided on a set rotation and stuck with it which is a major upgrade from Skiles right off the bat. Because of that and all the rotation players they have looking for new contracts I see them holding on to reach the playoffs but making no noise once they get there.

8. *Boston Celtics (21-23) – They have been doubly boring to watch since they play hard about once a week and when they do it’s usually a grind-it-out affair. GM Danny Ainge has previously said that he’s not going to blow things up opting for one last run but that might have been a mistake, especially now that Rajon Rondo (right ACL) is done for the season. With Jason Terry and Leandro Barbosa as their only PG options I could see them missing the post season entirely now, and if Ainge senses that no one on the roster is safe outside of Kevin Garnett (full no-trade clause).

*Philadelphia 76ers (18-25) – If Andrew Bynum (both knees) is really able to return around the All-Star break I could see them going on a run and being very dangerous a few weeks after he’s back because I really like mix of shooters and athletes they can surround Drew with. The question is will they be too far out of the race by that point for it to matter? Probably not since the East is so terrible, but if Bynum can’t return to form then they are dead in the water and heading to Secaucus, NJ for the draft lottery.

Detroit Pistons (17-27) – They have been playing much better as of late, and somewhat shockingly, Coach Lawrence Frank has them actually competing and giving maximum effort most nights. If you watched them last year you know that was rarely the case. But what everyone really wants to see is rookie freak of nature center Andre Drummond play more than 20 minutes a game while starting up front with PF Greg Monroe. Apparently they “have a plan” to develop Drummond that likely does not include them making the playoffs.

Toronto Raptors (16-28) – They have played much better since Andrea Bargnani (right elbow) and rookie Jonas Valanciunas (right hand) got hurt and Coach Dwane Casey made the bold move of benching PG Kyle Lowry in favor of Jose Calderon. GM Bryan Colangelo is going to have a tough time finding a taker for the remaining $23 million and two years on Bargnani’s contract but the fact of the matter is that Ed Davis has been better. The post season is probably out of reach but they have some nice pieces in place going forward.

Orlando Magic (14-29) – They were rolling along until Glen Davis hurt his left shoulder and then the wheels fell off. Davis is back now but they have lost their early season mojo. These guys play hard every night and win a fair amount of their games because the opposition takes them lightly. Second-year center Nikola Vucevic has been a revelation and rookie PF Andrew Nicholson has also played well. Maybe rookie GM Rob Hennigan really does know what he’s doing as he rebuilds the franchise.

Cleveland Cavaliers (13-32) – Kyrie Irving is great, probably my favorite player to watch right now, but even he cannot carry this mess to respectability, especially with Anderson Varejao (blood clot right lung) lost for the season. The good news is GM Chris Grant has stockpiled a plethora of first round draft picks and salary cap space to speed the rebuilding process along.

Washington Wizards (11-31) – They were a borderline travesty to watch while John Wall (left knee) recovered but in the nine games since Wall has returned they are a surprisingly respectable 6-3. Nene Hilario & Emeka Okafor give them solid production down low and Martell Webster & Trevor Ariza handle the wing defense freeing up rookie Bradley Beal & Wall to do their thing. They aren’t sniffing the playoffs but I have to admit they are kind of entertaining to watch right now.

Charlotte Bobcats (11-32) – They are no longer a blight on the NBA landscape and actually have a few legitimate pieces to build around. I could not stand to watch them last season but now Kemba Walker and rookie Michael Kidd-Gilchrist have changed that for me. They are still YEARS away from being mentioned with the word “playoffs” but changing their name back to the Hornets should make the locals happy.

WEST

1. *San Antonio Spurs (36-11) – Coach Gregg Popovich’s “resting” shenanigans aside they continue to roll along efficiently winning the games they should and putting up a good fight in all the others. While Tim Duncan has turned back the clock a few years it looks like Father Time has finally caught up with Manu Ginobili to me. I know they have great depth but outside of Duncan and Tony Parker I don’t know who else can be counted on in really big games. The production by committee approach might work during the regular season but come the playoffs I’m still not sold on them. It would not surprise me to see them lose in the first round, seriously.

2. *Oklahoma City Thunder (34-11) – I had them winning it all back in October until the James Harden/Kevin Martin trade. Obviously I WAY overacted to that deal and didn’t count on Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka expanding their respective games. I still worry about Martin under the white-hot post season spotlight, and there’s always a chance that Russell Westbrook goes off the reservation, but for my money the Thunder are the odds on favorites to win it all.

3. *Los Angeles Clippers (33-13) – I didn’t think there was any way Coach Vinny Del Negro could manage all the egos that wanted minutes and touches on this team, yet they have some of the best chemistry in the league. Granted Chauncey Billups (left foot) isn’t back yet and Grant Hill has only played in nine games so I guess there’s still a chance they implode. They can play with anybody in the regular season but I’m not on board with them going any further than the second round just yet.

4. *Memphis Grizzlies (28-15) – They have cooled off some since the start of the season but this squad is built more for the playoffs than the regular season anyway. New Owner Robert Pera is luxury tax adverse so this may be the last time the Mike Conley-Tony Allen-Rudy Gay-Zach Randolph-Marc Gasol core has a chance together. Their bench is a little thin but this is my dark horse title contender because they defend, rebound and excel at half court offense.

5. Golden State Warriors (26-17) – I honestly thought they could be this good, but never ever did I think they’d be this good with Andrew Bogut (left ankle) appearing in only four games. It’s got to be a scary thought for the rest of the West how much their already good defense and rebounding will improve once the big Aussie returns. If Bogut can get back to 60-70% of himself by the post season this is “the team no one wants to play” in the West. They are still too green to make a real run at the title but the second round is not out of the question at all.

6. *Denver Nuggets (27-18) – Coach George Karl has done a masterful job of managing the plethora of egos and talent at his disposal. His recent blasting of JaVale McGee is a good example. Their bench unit of Andre Miller-Corey Brewer-Wilson Chandler-McGee is extremely athletic and long (outside of Miller). That said unless VP Masai Ujiri makes a 3-for-1 type of trade for a superstar scorer I don’t see them getting out of the first round. They are a great regular season side though.

7. *Utah Jazz (24-20) – I thought for sure when Mo Williams (right thumb) went down after 24 games they were dead in the water. But low and behold the ancient duo of Jamaal Tinsley (yes, he’s still in the NBA, and starting too) and Earl Watson have held down the point nicely. All eyes are on VP Kevin O’Connor and new GM Dennis Lindsey and what they’ll do with Al Jefferson and/or Paul Millsap. Both Al & Paul are in the final year of their contracts and Derrick Favors & Enes Kanter are behind them and ready to play. It’s tough to predict where they finish or what their ceiling is with the specter of a big trade looming over them, but making the playoffs seems a pretty safe bet either way.

8. Houston Rockets (24-22) – One of my favorite teams to watch play because they get up and down the floor in a hurry and either take it to the rack or shoots threes. James Harden, Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons are all super fun to watch just because of their activity level. However I’m not sold on them as a playoff team because they play no defense, even though Parsons and Omer Asik are both quality defenders. GM Daryl Morey has stockpiled a bunch of talented players, draft picks and salary cap space so they are another candidate to do a big 3-for-1 deal for a superstar.

Portland Trail Blazers (22-22) – I had them as the worst team in the West prior to the season mainly because I thought they had no depth. Well I was at least 50% right because their lack of depth is almost criminal. However their starting unit of rookie Damian Lillard-Wes Matthews-Nicolas Batum-J.J. Hickson-LaMarcus Aldridge has been fantastic. Those five can play with anybody but eventually they will wear down and land GM Neil Olshey back in Secaucus, NJ.

*Los Angeles Lakers (19-25) – They don’t play any defense in the half court setting yet somehow their transition defense manages to be even worse than that. Kobe Bryant is awful away from the ball and Steve Nash is horrendous on it. Dwight Howard only plays D when he feels like it (i.e. when he’s getting touches down low) and Pau Gasol checked out mentally long ago on both ends. This leads me to Coach Mike D’Antoni who has been an unmitigated disaster as the leader of this hot mess.

For all of VP Jim Buss’ talk of D’Antoni tailoring his system to his player’s strengths the evidence, such as Earl Clark starting over Gasol, points in exactly the opposite direction. Mike D has them playing fast when they should play slow. He has them rarely running post ups even though they have three of the best post players in the NBA. He preaches offense when scoring points is the least of their worries. And worst of all he talks about the need for better chemistry and trust when he misuses each and every one of his star players which in turn frustrates them hindering the very thing he’s talking about.

ABOVE ALL ELSE the question that needs to be asked is “HOW IN THE HELL DID JIM BUSS THINK D’ANTONI WAS THE RIGHT FIT FOR THIS GROUP?” I can already see the writing on the wall and the choices Little Jimmy will have to make. First will be D’Antoni or Gasol by 2/21. Next will be this summer between Howard and D’Antoni. Before breaking this squad up I’d like to see what a real coach, like say Bernie Bickerstaff, could do with them first. I know “What’s wrong with the Lakers” makes for interesting talk but if you watch them play regularly you know this has not been a good team and that they are a long shot to make the playoffs unless they make MAJOR changes to the way they play and stick with them.

Dallas Mavericks (19-25) – I love Owner Mark Cuban declaring that the “Bank of Cuban is open” letting everyone know that they are ready to make a deal. Well to my recollection the “Bank of Cuban” has been open since last summer but no one wants to make a withdrawal. It’s funny because when the “Bank of Cuban” should have been open to resign Tyson Chandler after they won the ’10-11 title it wasn’t. Hey, at least he’ll always have “Shark Tank” to fall back on. Dirk Nowitzki is still not himself after right knee surgery and the rest of the squad just isn’t that good. Hello lottery!

*Minnesota Timberwolves (17-24) – Injuries have flat out killed them especially Kevin Love re-breaking his right hand and having surgery that will keep him out until sometime in mid to late March. Ricky Rubio is back but not anywhere near himself yet and now Nikola Pekovic (right thigh) is out as well. The only player to appear in all 41 games thus far is Luke Ridnour and I’m not even mentioning that Coach Rick Adelman has been away from the club since 1/6 while tending to his very ill wife. This is just a lost season for them all around and it’s a shame too because they had a lot of entertainment potential.

Sacramento Kings (16-29) – Oh my are they ever a mess, both on the court and away from it. The Maloof brothers finally found someone willing to overpay for their rotting carcass of a franchise in hedge fund manager Chris Hansen (who plans to move them to Seattle). Hopefully the first thing the Hansen group does is fire President Geoff Petrie and bring in someone that knows how to build a team. This is a talented bunch for sure but they have no idea how to play the game together which is why I rarely watch them.

New Orleans Hornets (15-29) – They were quite awful to start the season even though they always played hard. But in the 13 games that Eric Gordon has played in since his “right knee injury” they have been borderline dangerous. Greivis Vasquez is the most underrated PG in the league and Al-Farouq Aminu suddenly has a pulse in his contract year. I do have to question why GM Dell Demps traded for Ryan Anderson though because he plays the same position as prized rookie Anthony Davis and Coach Monty Williams tends to play Ryan more. If you are going nowhere you might as well get Davis as much experience as possible. But I digress; if Gordon is playing it’s worth checking them out on League Pass.

Phoenix Suns (15-30) – Another mess of a franchise run by a cheapskate owner in Robert Sarver and a clueless President (and ex-agent) in Lon Babby. Hopefully the firing of Coach Alvin Gentry at the 41 game mark means one of them has finally realized that they are going nowhere fast and it’s time to blow things up, clear salary cap space and start acquiring assets. Unfortunately I severely doubt that is their plan, and even it was I’d have no faith in them actually executing a full rebuild.

Mid-Season Awards

Defensive Player – Joakim Noah (Chicago)

Sixth Man – Ryan Anderson (New Orleans)

Coach – Mark Jackson (Golden State)

Rookie – Damian Lillard (Portland)

MVP – Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City)

All NBA

PG – Chris Paul (Clippers)
SG – Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
SF – Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City)
PF – LeBron James (Miami)
C – Tim Duncan (San Antonio)