Western Conference Preview

I’m going to be hard pressed to surpass picking 14 of 16 playoffs teams, both Finals teams and the NBA Champion like I did before the season last year.  I’m also on a preseason prediction roll of 6 of 7 years with at least one Finals team, 4 of 5 champions and two years in a row with both Finals teams.  The great thing about having a blog for so long is that if you don’t believe me all you have to do is search the archives.

1. San Antonio Spurs – They looked invincible last year, including a 20-game winning streak (10 playoff games), until getting dismissed in four straight (after winning the first two) by OKC in the Conference Finals.  The only new addition to the roster is rookie Nando de Colo as GM R.C. Buford decided to bring the entire cast back.  I’m not sure that’s really a good thing but second guessing Buford and Coach Gregg Popovich is not allowed.  The Spurs will be great in the regular season and exposed in the playoffs.

Eyes On – Kawhi Leonard.  As the rest of his teammate’s age he should be groomed to be the new face of the franchise.  He can defend, rebound and could be a star if he starts hitting his jumper consistently.

Now or Never – Tiago Splitter.  He had a 20.51 PER last season in only 19 minutes a game.  I’m not sure why he can’t get on the court more but he’s about to be a RFA and likely won’t stay without more burn.

2. Los Angeles Lakers – GM Mitch Kupchak had quite a summer acquiring Dwight Howard, Steve Nash, Antawn Jamison and Jodie Meeks.  Nash & Howard will form a devastating pick and roll combo while Jamison & Meeks will give their bench some scoring punch.  Their bench is still not great but it’s much improved.  I expect the Lakers to struggle early with all their new parts and new Princeton offense, but once they find their groove, look out.  Their defense should be better and will be key in how far they go.

Eyes On – Devin Ebanks.  The 43^rd pick from 2010 is finally going to get his chance to be rotation player as backup SF.  He’s very athletic, a good defender, plays within himself and can hit an open jumper.

Now or Never – Kobe Bryant.  He keeps saying he’s only going to play 2-3 more years.  If that’s really the case it’s time for him to start sharing the ball more.  Otherwise there’s no way he’ll get ring number six.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder – GM Sam Presti shocked the NBA world by trading James Harden for Kevin Martin only three days before the season tips off.  Martin is not the ball handler, creator for others or finisher at the rim that Harden is but Kevin can really shoot it.  Martin will keep them at a near-elite level but OKC certainly takes a step back this year.  Presti made this move for the future and Jeremy Lamb (12^th pick 2012), two 2013 firsts (Toronto & Dallas) and a 2013 second (Charlotte) is a very nice haul.

Eyes On – Martin.  He’s coming of his lowest PER (16.60) since ’05-06 while replacing the Sixth Man of the Year.  Will he accept a reduced role and suddenly become a chemistry guy in his contract year?

Now or Never – Eric Maynor.  He tore his right ACL in the 9^th game last year and was done for the season.  He’s about to be a restricted free agent (RFA) so he has to bounce back quickly to get paid.

4. Denver Nuggets – Basketball Prospectus’ Kevin Pelton has them 1^st and ESPN’s John Hollinger has them 2^nd making the Nugs the favorite of the stat geeks.  It’s easy to see why computer projections love them; they are very deep, almost too talented and extremely athletic.  I would have to say this is probably Coach George Karl’s dream “no-star” roster too.  I question if they have enough shooting after Danilo Gallinari though and who’s their go-to-guy?  Another very tough regular season side that flames out early.

Eyes On – Ty Lawson.  His PER has risen every year he’s been in the league (16.51>17.99>19.43) and he’s about to be a RFA.  If he doesn’t sign an extension by 10/31 will it affect their chemistry?

Now or Never – Andre Iguodala.  We’ve heard how unhappy he was in Philadelphia and how he’s going to shoot more threes in Denver.  He’s the highest paid by Nugget by far so it’s time to walk the walk.

5. Memphis Grizzlies – Zach Randolph (right knee) appeared in only 28 games last season and Rudy Gay (left shoulder) 54 the year prior.  Since their core has never had a decent run together no one really knows how good they can be.  On paper their starters can hang with anybody but their wing depth is lacking.  Quincy Pondexter has yet to prove he belongs at backup SF and Jerryd Bayless has to replace O.J. Mayo’s offense as sixth man.  The Griz can certainly win a round but any more is likely a reach.

Eyes On – Darrell Arthur.  He missed all of last season with a torn right Achilles but is a very useful role playing big man.  He can hit an open jumper and is a great team defender.

Now or Never – Wayne Ellington.  I’ve always liked him for the designated 3-point shooter role but he’s never found his niche.  Since he’s about to be a RFA and has no other skill he better shoot near 40%.

6. Los Angeles Clippers – VP by default Gary Sacks made a lot of waves this summer by acquiring Lamar Odom, Jamal Crawford, Grant Hill, Matt Barnes, Willie Green, Ronny Turiaf and Ryan Hollins.  That’s a lot of new faces for Coach Vinny Del Negro to incorporate, some of whom will have to accept reduced roles.  I’m not going to deny the Clips have talent but it just doesn’t seem to fit together very well.  I also question if they will play any defense but they are a solid playoff team capable of pulling an upset.

Eyes On – Eric Bledsoe.  He struggled last year with a right knee injury but he might be the best player you’ve never seen play.  He’s an explosive athlete that’s a tough minded defender.  He just need minutes.

Now or Never – Odom.  A season after winning Sixth Man of the Year he flat out quit to the tune of a 9.26 PER.  He apparently showed up to camp out of shape yet again…not a good sign in a contract year.

7. Utah Jazz – Director Kevin O’Connor has done a masterful job assembling a team while managing to fly completely under the radar.  The Jazz could have as little as $1,660,000 on their salary cap this offseason if no options are picked up.  That’s amazing when you consider all the talent they have.  New addition Marvin Williams joins Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson to solidify their starting frontcourt and reserve Derrick Favors is a defensive force.  Their guard rotation isn’t as strong but this is a playoff team for sure.

Eyes On – Enes Kanter.  He reportedly lost 51 pounds in the summer and it shows BIG time from what I’ve seen so far.  He has a new found spring in his step and can suddenly score at the rim in traffic.

Now or Never – Mo Williams.  He has been slowed with a left hip injury in the preseason which is not good considering he’s in a contract year.  He’ll need to up his PER from 15.02 to get paid what he wants.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves – President David Kahn had a great offseason adding Andrei Kirilenko, Brandon Roy, Chase Budinger, Alexey Shved, Dante Cunningham, Greg Stiemsma and Lou Amundson.  That’s why it’s a shame that Kevin Love (right hand) is out 6-8 weeks and Ricky Rubio (left ACL/LCL) won’t be back until January.  When healthy this squad has enough depth and versatility to keep Coach Rick Adelman very busy.  They will struggle early but will be extremely dangerous when everyone’s back.

Eyes On – Nikola Pekovic.  The Montenegrin big man’s PER went from 11.29 to 21.47(!) in his second season.  He plays below the rim but is tough as nails, has good hands and a knack for finishing.

Now or Never – Roy.  After sitting out a year to rest his knees he signed a 2-year $10.4 million contract.  If healthy he could really help but people seem to forget how truly bad he was in 2010-11 (13.94 PER).

9. Golden State Warriors – GM Bob Myers made two quality additions to their roster in Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry but his big coup was landing Andrew Bogut last year.  The big Aussie gives Coach Mark Jackson the defensive anchor he desires and Bogut should form a nice starting tandem with David Lee too.  They are taking the SF by committee approach but other than that they have nice depth elsewhere.  If Bogut (left ankle) is able to play most of the season (65+ games) the playoffs are not out of reach.

Eyes On – Klay Thompson.  He has all the tools to be a prototypical SG in the classic mold and made Monta Ellis expendable.  He’s a prime candidate to make “the jump” in his second season.

Now or Never – Stephen Curry.  I’ve never been totally sold on him and especially since his twice surgically repaired right ankle can’t get healthy.  He’ll need some luck since he’s about to be a RFA.

10. Dallas Mavericks – Owner Mark Cuban missing the big free agent meeting with Deron Williams he had been planning for all year to film an episode of “Shark Tank” is my favorite offseason moment.  I mean…WOW!  President Donnie Nelson recovered nicely acquiring Chris Kaman, Elton Brand, O.J. Mayo, Darren Collison and Dahntay Jones.  They have enough talent to make the playoffs but this is a bad mix of players and Dirk Nowitzki (right knee) missing 3-6 weeks means they’ll likely start slowly.

Eyes On – Mayo.  He’s complained for years about being misused and needing more touches, well now’s his chance.  He should be the number two scoring option in Dallas so we’ll see what he’s made of.

Now or Never – Rodrigue Beaubois.  After two surgeries on his left foot since 2010 he already has a sprained left ankle.  His development has been poor and he needs to produce as an upcoming RFA.

11. Houston Rockets – Gone are Luis Scola, Kevin Martin, Kyle Lowry, Goran Dragic, Marcus Camby, Samuel Dalembert, Chase Budinger, and Courtney Lee.  That’s a decent club’s rotation right there alone.  In their place GM Daryl Morey has a slew of young and talented players with new acquisitions James Harden, Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik leading the way.  Coach Kevin McHale will have his work cut out for him with such a new group.  The playoffs are likely out of reach but they should be entertaining to watch.

Eyes On – Harden.  He forced his way off a legitimate Championship contender over $4.5 million total dollars over four years.  I suppose he really must want to be the man, but be careful what you wish for…

Now or Never – Lin.  After a phenomenal 35-game stint in New York (19.97 PER) he signed a 3-year $25 million contract (year three “poison pill” for $15 million).  Time to prove that he wasn’t just a fluke.

12. Phoenix Suns – If President Lon Babby has a plan I’d love to know what it is?  His biggest error was holding on to Steve Nash FAR too long and then trading him to a division rival.  Overall Babby’s track record is shoddy at best and this is why you don’t hire former agents to be personnel men.  I really like the Suns big man rotation of Marcin Gortat, Luis Scola and Markieff Morris but outside of that they don’t have much.  They aren’t making the playoffs and won’t have much salary cap room…so status quo.

Eyes On – Goran Dragic.  The Slovenian PG had a career year (18.03 PER) and was rewarded with a 4-year $30 million contract.  He will have the freedom to do whatever he wants, which should be interesting.

Now or Never – Wesley Johnson.  His team option for next season has yet to be picked up and I don’t think it should be.  He had an 8.08 PER last year while shooting 31.4% from three, his supposed strength.

13. Sacramento Kings – Coach Keith Smart’s boys were dead last in opponent shooting and 25^th in rebound differential last year.  Yet President Geoff Petrie added only two players, Aaron Brooks and James Johnson, to a club that won 22 games.  Umm…ok.  Throughout the preseason their rotation has been a mess and I still don’t know who their starting PG or SF will be.  For a franchise in residence limbo with broke ownership they do have some talent, but they also lack the cohesion to do anything with it.

Eyes On – DeMarcus Cousins.  He put up 18.1 points, 10.9 rebounds, 1.2 blocks and a 21.72 PER last year.  He looks to be in much better shape this season which should have his opponents worried.

Now or Never – Tyreke Evans.  He’s regressed badly after being the fourth rookie in history to average 20 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists.  He’s about to be a RFA and finally being at his natural SG should help.

14. New Orleans Hornets – GM Dell Demps’ big offseason move was signing the crown jewel of the Chris Paul trade, Eric Gordon, to a 4-year $58 million contract.  Never mind that Gordon’s games played have dropped every year he’s been in the league (78>62>56>9) or that he’s missed the entire preseason with a sore right knee, David Stern knew what he was doing!  Besides Gordon the Hornets have nothing in the backcourt and their SF situation is a disaster.  They won’t win much, but they’ll likely play hard.

Eyes On – Anthony Davis.  I saw him play this summer on the National Team and the rookie number one pick is ready to dominate on defense immediately.  His offensive game is a still mystery but he’s for real.

Now or Never – Al-Farouq Aminu.  His team option has yet to be picked up and I’m not sure what NBA skill he has other than length and athleticism.  If he doesn’t progress the CP3 trade looks even worse.

15. Portland Trail Blazers – New GM Neil Olshey added Jared Jeffries, Sasha Pavlovic and Ronnie Price to a team that won 28 games a year ago...what!?!?  The Blazers could also have as many as FIVE rookies in their rotation before it’s all said and done.  New Coach Terry Stotts is not a defensive guru which is not a good thing for a side that was 28^th in opponent shooting last season.  I also question how LaMarcus Aldridge will hold up as a full time center.  These guys are going to be terrible in crunch time.

Eyes On – Damian Lillard.  The rookie sixth pick looked great in Summer League and preseason.  He’s lightning-quick with the ball, can shoot and find the open man.  He will get every opportunity to shine.

Now or Never – J.J. Hickson.  He signed a 1-year $4 million contract and has never had a PER above 15.67.  Since he’s going to start at PF and play a lot of minutes this is his big opportunity to prove himself.

Final Four – San Antonio, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Lakers

Western Finals – Memphis, Lakers

NBA Finals – Miami, Lakers

NBA Champion – Lakers