Second Round

I ended up going 6-2 in the first round and would have gone 7-1 if Memphis knew how to finish in close games.  The Grizzlies also ruined an almost perfect first round for me in terms of games.  I missed San Antonio and Oklahoma City by one game each and hit every other series exactly.  As for my people in Chicago, losing Derrick Rose (ACL left knee) after one game and Joakim Noah (left ankle) after three is nothing to hang your heads about.   The Bulls will be contenders again next season.

EAST

Philadelphia at Boston – Paul Pierce (sprained MCL left knee), Ray Allen (bone spurs right ankle), Avery Bradley (dislocated left shoulder) and Mickael Pietrus (right knee) all being hurt leaves the Celtics without a fully healthy player in their regular wing rotation.  Meanwhile the only 76er known to be slowed is Andre Iguodala (right Achilles).  I give a slight advantage to Boston when it comes to the big man rotations even though Brandon Bass/Kevin Garnett/Greg Stiemsma is pretty much equal to Elton Brand/Spencer Hawes/Lavoy Allen.  That leaves the PG battle between Rajon Rondo and Jrue Holiday, which I still give to Rondo even though Holiday has stepped it up as of late.  Philly needs to exploit their superior rebounding, depth and health by pushing the tempo whenever possible.  I am expecting that these games will mostly be close low scoring affairs decided by crunch time execution which favors the C’s experience big time.  That said the Sixers have a legitimate shot here if the injuries to Pierce and Allen force them to miss time.  In the playoffs it’s always unwise to pick against the healthier side but that’s exactly what I’m going to do.  Boston in 6.

Indiana at Miami – When looking through the numbers it’s shocking just how evenly matched these squads are, and outside of Leandro Barbosa (left ankle) both clubs are more or less healthy too.  On paper the Pacers two main advantages are the PG tandem of George Hill/Darren Collison and center Roy Hibbert.  The Heat have no one on their roster that can match Roy’s size, and since the rest of the big man rotations are virtually identical, it’s imperative for Hibbert to be aggressive in the paint on both ends of the floor.  Indy also has some long and tough defenders to throw at LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in Paul George, Danny Granger and Dahntay Jones.  I think this is going to be another hard fought series featuring low scores, close games and a few shoving matches when tempers flare.  I know LeBron isn’t exactly known as a closer (to be kind) but these Pacers really struggle to manufacture baskets in crunch time.  Indy also has a tendency to go through scoring droughts where they give up huge runs.  I view this series as the de facto Eastern Conference Finals and it’s certainly possible that it goes the distance.  In the end though I see Miami winning three close games and one blow out.  Heat in 5.

WEST

Lakers at Oklahoma City – Anyone who knows me has heard me say multiple times this season that “Los Angeles can’t beat the Thunder in the playoffs.”  The Lakers come in beat up and tired, both mentally and physically, after allowing Denver to push them to seven games.  Now they are facing the most athletic group in the NBA that also features a lightning quick PG in Russell Westbrook, an undersized hustling big man in Nick Collison and a legitimate defender for Kobe Bryant in Thabo Sefolosha.  The formula for LA remains the same; take care of the ball, slow the tempo, pound it inside and play team defense.  Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum must consistently win their individual matchups with Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins respectively.  Perkins normally plays Bynum very tough but Kendrick has a mystery right hip injury that could prove to be critical if the series goes long.  Metta World Peace usually does a very nice job on Kevin Durant, and with Matt Barnes (right ankle) not himself it will be up to Kobe to deal with Westbrook for the Lakers to have any chance.  OKC GM Sam Presti literally built his roster to match LA’s strengths and exploit their weaknesses, and that’s exactly what they’ll do.  Thunder in 5.

Clippers at San Antonio – The other club from Los Angeles comes in exhausted after a physically grueling seven-game series with Memphis.  Chris Paul (right hip flexor) is slowed, Blake Griffin (left knee) is obviously not the same player and Caron Butler (fractured left hand) is living up to his nickname “Tuff Juice.”  Meanwhile the Spurs will have had a full seven days off by the time this series tips off.  SA is an astounding 28-3 in their last 31 games and an even more astonishing 22-3 in their last 25 road games.  (Two of the road losses came when they rested their starters too.)  One last scary stat for the Clips; the Spurs were the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season (39.3%) and LA was tied for 27^th in defending the three (36.5%).  I anticipate SA Coach Gregg Popovich has a plan that will take Griffin out of his comfort zones exploiting the holes in his still developing game.  I also don’t see the Spurs giving away 24-point leads with 8 minutes to play or succumbing to Paul’s late game wizardry like the Grizzlies did.  And I’m not even mentioning the extreme coaching mismatch that is Popovich versus Vinny Del Negro.  I expect SA to bring fresh players in waves at the Clips all while raining tons of threes.  Spurs in 5.