Finals
My picks for the Conference Finals were shaky at best as reflected in my 1-1 record (11-3 overall). I did have Miami-Oklahoma City as the Finals in my season preview but I made the classic mistake of going against that by picking San Antonio. I am a big proponent of the emerging numbers based analytics that are currently sweeping the NBA universe and that’s really why I picked the Spurs. However over the course of the Western Conference Finals the Thunder managed to reverse several trends that were working against them coming in. OKC committed three less turnovers, one less foul and handed out the exact number of assists per game. They also shot a better percentage from the field and were practically equal from the 3-point line. These were all supposed to be huge advantages for SA heading in as was coaching but Scott Brooks did a number on Coach of the Year Gregg Popovich by getting his club to buy into consistently making the extra pass while taking better care of the ball. The Spurs and Pop never recovered and really looked at a loss for new ideas in games 6 & 7.
Miami at Oklahoma City – From looking at their regular season statistics there really isn’t much separating these two squads. The Thunder are better at defending the three (9th to 25th) and free throw shooting (1st to 7th) while playing at a faster pace (5th to 14th). The Heat have the edge in assists (21st to 30th), turnovers (23rd to 30th) and fouls (14th to 23rd) per game. Five or less spots separate them in opponent shooting, field goal & 3-point shooting, rebound differential, offensive & defensive efficiency and true shooting percentage.
When it comes to individual matchups nothing compares to the top two voters getters in MVP and All-NBA going at each other. I suppose you could argue that they aren’t the best two players in the Association but you’d be fighting an uphill battle. Of course I’m talking about LeBron James and Kevin Durant, and what makes this so great is they play the same position so they should be guarding each other a lot of the time. James has the muscle and Durant the length and I’d be lying if I said I was excited to see these two go at each other with the title on the line. The clash of second fiddles should favor Russell Westbrook since Dwyane Wade (left knee) is obviously not himself. Making matters worse for Wade is that defensive ace Thabo Sefolosha will be on him most of the time and when Thabo checks out Sixth Man of the Year James Harden checks in meaning Dwyane can’t hide on defense anymore, even if Shane Battier is on the court with him. I don’t think it matters if Chris Bosh (abdominal strain) starts or comes off the bench because OKC has plenty of big bodies to throw at him. Second place vote getter in Defensive Player of the Year and All-Defense Serge Ibaka will be the primary Bosh defender but Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison will also have their shots.
If I was Thunder Coach Scott Brooks I wouldn’t waste any time getting the lineup of Westbrook/Harden/Sefolosha/Durant/Ibaka on the floor together. For my money that is the most athletic five in the NBA (maybe ever…seriously) and even Miami will have trouble matching up against it. Heat Coach Eric Spoelstra hasn’t been stellar this post season but to match that five I think Wade/Battier/James/Bosh/Udonis Haslem gives him the best chance. Bosh is the only guy on either team that qualifies as a low-post threat offensively but with OKC’s multitude of post defenders I think we’ll see these games decided on the perimeter and in the open court rather than in the paint. This series is going to be very competitive and highly entertaining to watch and it’s extremely tough to make a call. I had Miami winning this tussle in my season preview but I can’t shake this feeling that it’s the Thunder’s time. They are healthier, deeper, have home court advantage and picking them allows me to hedge my bets and say I was right either way. OKC in 7.
Miami at Oklahoma City – From looking at their regular season statistics there really isn’t much separating these two squads. The Thunder are better at defending the three (9th to 25th) and free throw shooting (1st to 7th) while playing at a faster pace (5th to 14th). The Heat have the edge in assists (21st to 30th), turnovers (23rd to 30th) and fouls (14th to 23rd) per game. Five or less spots separate them in opponent shooting, field goal & 3-point shooting, rebound differential, offensive & defensive efficiency and true shooting percentage.
When it comes to individual matchups nothing compares to the top two voters getters in MVP and All-NBA going at each other. I suppose you could argue that they aren’t the best two players in the Association but you’d be fighting an uphill battle. Of course I’m talking about LeBron James and Kevin Durant, and what makes this so great is they play the same position so they should be guarding each other a lot of the time. James has the muscle and Durant the length and I’d be lying if I said I was excited to see these two go at each other with the title on the line. The clash of second fiddles should favor Russell Westbrook since Dwyane Wade (left knee) is obviously not himself. Making matters worse for Wade is that defensive ace Thabo Sefolosha will be on him most of the time and when Thabo checks out Sixth Man of the Year James Harden checks in meaning Dwyane can’t hide on defense anymore, even if Shane Battier is on the court with him. I don’t think it matters if Chris Bosh (abdominal strain) starts or comes off the bench because OKC has plenty of big bodies to throw at him. Second place vote getter in Defensive Player of the Year and All-Defense Serge Ibaka will be the primary Bosh defender but Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison will also have their shots.
If I was Thunder Coach Scott Brooks I wouldn’t waste any time getting the lineup of Westbrook/Harden/Sefolosha/Durant/Ibaka on the floor together. For my money that is the most athletic five in the NBA (maybe ever…seriously) and even Miami will have trouble matching up against it. Heat Coach Eric Spoelstra hasn’t been stellar this post season but to match that five I think Wade/Battier/James/Bosh/Udonis Haslem gives him the best chance. Bosh is the only guy on either team that qualifies as a low-post threat offensively but with OKC’s multitude of post defenders I think we’ll see these games decided on the perimeter and in the open court rather than in the paint. This series is going to be very competitive and highly entertaining to watch and it’s extremely tough to make a call. I had Miami winning this tussle in my season preview but I can’t shake this feeling that it’s the Thunder’s time. They are healthier, deeper, have home court advantage and picking them allows me to hedge my bets and say I was right either way. OKC in 7.
posted by D$ at 5:07 PM
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