Conference Finals

I ended up going 4-0 in the second round missing three series’ by one game and hitting one exactly.  With all the major injuries we’ve had being 10-2 at this point is nothing to sneeze at.  It’s also worth pointing out that I had five of the final eight and two of the final four right in my season preview.  If I’m able to finish out with three more wins I can officially call this season a success from a prediction standpoint.

EAST

Boston at Miami – Looking at their regular season statistics the Celtics have the edge in 3-point defense (Bos 1^st/Mia 25^th), assists (Bos 2^nd/Mia 21^st) and turnovers (Bos 17^th/Mia 23^rd) per game.  The Heat are superior when it comes to rebound differential (Mia 6^th/Bos 28^th) and offensive efficiency (Mia 6^th/Bos 24^th) while playing at a faster pace (Mia 14^th/Bos 22^nd).  They are more or less even in opponent shooting, defensive efficiency, field goal shooting, 3-point shooting, true shooting percentage and fouls per game.

You can’t talk about individual match ups in this series without mentioning injuries.  Ray Allen (right ankle) is clearly not himself and with no Avery Bradley (left shoulder) we may see Rajon Rondo or even Sasha Pavlovic on Dwyane Wade.  Paul Pierce normally does as good a job as anyone on LeBron James but with PP (left knee) at less than 100% it’s going to be a struggle.  Mickael Pietrus is normally a solid defender who could check either James or Wade but Pietrus (right knee) is also slowed so Marquis Daniels may get an opportunity on each as well.  With both Allen and Pierce hobbling around Wade, Bron and Shane Battier shouldn’t have much trouble containing them.  Miami has Ronny Turiaf, Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony to rotate on Kevin Garnett and Mario Chalmers is an underrated defender for Rondo.  With D Wade (left knee) somewhat gimpy himself I think his turns on Rajon will limited.

Both of these sides come off tough physical series’ that featured many boring grind-it-out games.  I wish I could say we are in for something different here but we aren’t.  Since neither club has a true inside presence I think we’ll see a lot of jump shots late in the shot clock on both ends of the court.  Boston won the season series 3-1 but looking at both rosters I don’t see anywhere that the Celtics have an advantage in their current depleted state.  Even their bench is worse than the Heat’s, and that’s really saying something.  The only drama in this series will be whether or not Chris Bosh (abdominal strain) returns (I think he will).  I see these games being close throughout with the athleticism of Wade and James carrying Miami over Boston’s crumbling core in crunch time.  Heat in 5.

WEST

Oklahoma City at San Antonio – Comparing their regular season numbers the Spurs have a few offensive stats on their side including assists per game (SA 4^th/OKC 30^th) and 3-point shooting (SA 1^st/OKC 11^th).  Not surprisingly the Thunder have the edge in defensive field goal percentage from the field (OKC 3^rd/SA 17^th) and 3-point range (OKC 9^th/SA 19^th).  In a series that figures to be close it’s also worth noting that the Spurs committed less turnovers (SA 3^rd/OKC 30^th) and fouls (SA 3^rd/OKC 23^rd) per game by a wide margin.  Otherwise these teams are practically equal in rebound differential, field goal shooting, pace factor, true shooting percentage and offensive & defensive efficiency.

When it comes to individual matchups the main event pits second team All-NBA guards Tony Parker and Russell Westbrook against each other in what should be a barn burner of quickness.  Both guys can get to the hole at will and where Parker excels at floaters in the lane Westbrook is deadly on pull up jumpers from mid-range.  Next would be herky-jerky left handed sixth men Manu Ginobili and James Harden.  Manu did not play in any of their three tilts this season (Spurs went 2-1 against the Thunder) so I’m very interested to see these two go at it.  While OKC can throw Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed at Tim Duncan SA doesn’t really have an ideal stopper for Kevin Durant.  The job will fall to first team All-Rookie selection Kawhi Leonard to start games but something tells me we’ll see a lot of the mercurial Stephen Jackson in KD’s face.

The Thunder usually shine in the open court but I think they need be careful with how much they run in this series.  Even though it’s unnatural for them I think OKC actually needs to slow the game down to take advantage of their superior defense.  The Thunder’s discipline in shot selection is going to be sorely tested because the Spurs always turn mistakes into easy points.  OKC’s resolve will also be stretched when SA goes on one of their patented big runs.  The Spurs play a brand of “Euro-ball” where they drive and kick looking for threes in the half court but they also look to fan out to the short corner three on fast breaks.  SA has more quality depth than the Thunder do and the Spurs are absolutely murder when games turn into track meets.  I expect these contests to be free flowing affairs featuring plenty of scoring but SA is just too hot right now having won 18 straight, 32 of their last 35, 24 of their last 27 on the road and 43 of their last 47 when Tony Parker plays.  Spurs in 6.