Eastern Conference Preview

1. Miami Heat – Coach Erik Spoelstra is planning on using a full time “position-less” system (i.e. small ball) with LeBron James as his main low post option.  With Bron playing “point power forward” he’ll look to draw double teams and pass the ball out to shooters like Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Mike Miller and James Jones.  The Heat still lack quality big men and could be vulnerable on the boards but stifling perimeter defense should offset some of that.  Injuries are all that can keep Miami from winning the East.

Eyes On – Chris Bosh.  He’s always bristled at playing center full time but that’s where he finds himself.  And with his recent admission that he’s no longer trying to bulk up I wonder if he can bang for 82 games?

Now or Never – Mario Chalmers.  He has been a starter by default for his entire career but has never posted a PER higher than his rookie season (13.35).  He’ll need to improve that mark in his contract year.

2. Boston Celtics – GM Danny Ainge recovered nicely from Ray Allen’s departure by signing Jason Terry and acquiring Courtney Lee in a sign-and-trade.  Once Avery Bradley (both shoulders) returns in mid-December the Celtics will sport a very deep and defensive minded backcourt rotation.  Up front they have more questions though as starters Brandon Bass and Kevin Garnett (now a full time center) are backed up by rookies and assorted stiffs.  If Miami stumbles Boston will be right there ready to pounce.

Eyes On – Jared Sullinger.  He fell to 21 on draft night due to concerns about his back but thus far the rookie has looked good in Summer League and preseason.

Now or Never – Jeff Green.  He didn’t play last year due to heart surgery then signed a 4-year $36 million contract.  His highest PER came in his second season (13.99) so he’s yet to prove he’s worth that money.

3. Indiana Pacers – Donnie Walsh and Kevin Pritchard replaced Larry Bird and David Morway as President and GM respectively and the new guys doubled-down on what old regime started.  They resigned starters Roy Hibbert (4-years/$56 million) and George Hill (5-years/$40 million) keeping their core intact.  New rotation players D.J. Augustin, Gerald Green and Ian Mahinmi should improve their bench as well.  Indiana is dangerous but their lack of a true go-to-guy will hold them back in the playoffs.

Eyes On – Paul George.  Even though I think he’s playing out of position at SG his potential upside is the x-factor for how much the Pacers can improve.

Now or Never – David West.  He’s entering his contract year and if he wants another big pay day he’ll have to increase the 12.8 points and 6.6 rebounds he averaged last season.

4. Brooklyn Nets – This summer President Billy King handed out $81,404,478 in salary for this season alone on 12 players not including draft picks.  Owner Mikhail Prokhorov wanted to be relevant when they moved into the new Barclays Center and he got his wish.  Deron Williams and Joe Johnson will form an extremely talented and versatile backcourt but their depth is very suspect and good chemistry won’t happen overnight.  Brooklyn will be a good team but genuine contender status is at least a year away.

Eyes On – MarShon Brooks.  A right foot injury has slowed him in training camp but the second year SG might be the only consistent scoring option off the bench for the Nets.

Now or Never – Brook Lopez.  He signed a 4-year $60 million contract after playing in only five games last season (right foot).  To justify that money he’s going to have to defend and rebound much better.

5. Atlanta Hawks – New GM Danny Ferry accomplished the almost unthinkable when he found takers for the massively overpaid Joe Johnson (4-years/$89 million left) and the overrated Marvin Williams.  The beauty of what Ferry did in clearing up Atlanta’s salary cap situation is they won’t be that much worse in the standings.  Al Horford (torn left pectoral) played in only 11 games last season and his return can’t be understated.  The Hawks don’t have a lot of quality depth but they will scrap and play defense.

Eyes On – Josh Smith.  He has already told management that he will play out the final year of his contract and not sign an extension.  Coming off a career high PER (21.14) I see another big year coming.

Now or Never – Devin Harris.  He’s on his fourth club in nine seasons as he enters his contract year.  He has to rediscover his defensive mindset and prove he can lead a good team by sharing the ball.

6. New York Knicks – President Glen Grunwald was busy in the offseason adding Ray Felton, Jason Kidd, Pablo Prigioni, Ronnie Brewer, Kurt Thomas, Marcus Camby and Rasheed Wallace (not exactly a youth corps).  Then there’s the question of what Amar’e Stoudemire (left knee) will look like after missing the first 6-8 weeks of the season.  When Mike Woodson took over as coach last year the Knicks really started playing better defense, and while their talent is decent, the age of their bench concerns me.

Eyes On – J.R. Smith.  He’s already complained about his role as sixth man after signing a reduced rate contract (2-years/$5.7 million).  That is not a good sign for a team with very tenuous chemistry.

Now or Never – Carmelo Anthony.  It’s his team in his city but he’s only advanced out of the first round of the playoffs once in his career.  If that doesn’t change the NY media is going get ugly with him.

7. Philadelphia 76ers – Coach Doug Collins has never lasted longer than three years in all of his previous three stops and marquee addition Andrew Bynum (right knee) has yet to practice with his new teammates.  These two factors combined with a slightly suspect bench worry me when it comes to how good they can really be.  The Sixers do possess a lot of youth and athleticism and have several players that could break out.  I just have a bad feeling about this group but they are playoff bound barring injuries.

Eyes On – Evan Turner.  Unlike many out there I still think he has the potential to be a quality NBA starter.  With Andre Iguodala finally gone it’s time for ET to show what he’s made of.

Now or Never – Jrue Holiday.  His highest PER was 15.49 in his second season and he’s apparently seeking a maximum contract extension.  He’ll have to prove he’s more than just a marginal starter first.

8. Chicago Bulls – With Derrick Rose (left ACL) out for most of the season Owner Jerry Reinsdorf decided to tighten the purse strings and dismantle arguably the best bench in the Association.  Gone are C.J. Watson, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, Omer Asik and John Lucas III and their replacements aren’t nearly as capable.  I have them here because Coach Tom Thibodeau will get them to play great defense and won’t allow excuses.  The boost Rose will provide when he returns should be just enough squeak in.

Eyes On – Taj Gibson.  He will be a restricted free agent (RFA) after the season and is one of the most underrated players in the league.  A productive season could mean a mega-contract for him this summer.

Now or Never – Richard Hamilton.  He has a team option for $5 million next season and if he wants it to be picked up he’ll have to improve on his 13.27 PER as he turns 35.

9. Milwaukee Bucks – After trading Andrew Bogut for Monta Ellis last year their big summer acquisition was Samuel Dalembert who will certainly help fill the defensive and rebounding void created by Bogut’s departure.  But that is it; they are counting on their versatility and the undersized pass last backcourt of Ellis and Brandon Jennings to carry them.  Year in and year out no group frustrates me more than the Bucks do.  They have decent talent, depth and play hard but it never seems to come together for them.

Eyes On – Ersan Ilyasova.  I think the 25-year old Turk is one of the best kept secrets in the league.  He sported a 20.55 PER last season, shot 45.5% from three and had a 25 rebound game as well.

Now or Never – John Hammond & Scott Skiles.  GM and coach respectively are both in their contract years and have compiled a sparkling 146-166 record together.  Obviously it’s playoffs or bust for both.

10. Toronto Raptors – In Dwane Casey’s first year as coach the Raps moved from 28^th to 7^th in opponent shooting and 19^th to 10^th in rebound differential.  Now if GM Bryan Colangelo could just give him enough talent they might be in business.  Kyle Lowry, Landry Fields, Dominic McGuire and John Lucas III give them more depth on the perimeter but their big man rotation has some question marks.  If Toronto can find someone besides Andrea Bargnani to score consistently they might sneak into the playoffs.

Eyes On – Jonas Valanciunas.  The rookie from Lithuania (5^th pick in 2011) has been the best big man in Europe for two years.  Word is he’s not afraid of contact and has a real live low post game on offense.

Now or Never – DeMar DeRozan.  I really don’t understand how he’s still a starter (12.87 PER last season)?  If he wants to get paid as a RFA he must defend with some zeal and pass once in a while.

11. Detroit Pistons – I’ve been very down on President Joe Dumars for a few years, and I while still don’t love the mix of players he’s put together, there’s no denying they have some talent.  Detroit goes three deep at almost every position with legitimate NBA players.  The question is can Coach Lawrence Frank get them to play together on offense while committing to some semblance of defense?  If they manage to develop a little chemistry and intensity I could see the Pistons making the playoffs.

Eyes On – Greg Monroe.  I was extremely late to the party on him but I have seen the light now.  He’s got a great low post game, can rebound and is a good passer.  All he needs is some national exposure.

Now or Never – Austin Daye.  He’ll be a RFA after the season but I don’t see him getting the minutes he’ll need to prove himself.  And why should he with a single digit PER (7.19) last season?

12. Cleveland Cavaliers – GM Chris Grant’s marquee offseason addition was…wait for it…C.J. Miles (2-years/$4.5 million).  Anderson Varejao (right wrist) played in only 25 games last season so getting him back will help, but I fail to see where else the Cavs improved?  Second year players Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson are really going to have to make “the jump” and Coach Byron Scott will have to get them to defend some to approach respectability.  Some people are predicting playoffs for them but I don’t see it.

Eyes On – Jon Leuer.  It’s amazing to me that he’s already on his third team entering his second year.  He’s a no frills big man that can finish around the rim, mix it up inside and hit an open jumper.

Now or Never – Omri Casspi.  The once promising Israeli has seen his PER drop every year he’s been stateside (13.04>11.76>11.26).  He needs to reverse that trend as he enters restricted free agency.

13. Orlando Magic – It’s hard to say what they will look like sans their franchise player and with new Coach Jacque Vaughn calling the shots.  Jameer Nelson, Hedo Turkoglu and J.J. Redick are still there and while the cast new GM Rob Hennigan put together may not be star laden the Magic actually have a bunch of solid guys.  I have them higher than most pundits but I’m counting on them doing the “us against the world” routine at every turn and playing hard every night.  Even with that the playoffs are out of reach.

Eyes On – Gustavo Ayon.  The Mexican national is very fun to watch and doesn’t need the ball to be effective.  He hustles all over the place and plays the game the right way in all phases.

Now or Never – Glen Davis.  He’s always griping about wanting to be the man and needing more touches, well he should finally get them as the sole low post threat on an offensively challenged team.

14. Washington Wizards – GM Ernie Grunfeld takes a lot of flak, and while he’s nowhere near great, I also don’t think he’s terrible.  The Wiz will have an entirely new starting frontcourt in Trevor Ariza, Emeka Okafor and Nene (not good enough for one name) Hilario.  That’s not top notch but it’s decent enough.  A.J. Price, Jordan Crawford and Martell Webster are all passable backups on the wings.  Where they are in trouble though is frontcourt depth if the fragile Mek or Nene gets hurt.  Its lottery time again in DC. 

Eyes On – Bradley Beal.  This rookie (3^rd pick) has been compared to everyone from Dwyane Wade to Ray Allen.  High praise to be sure and probably the one reason to watch Washington early on.

Now or Never – John Wall.  I had such high hopes for him and thus far he’s let me down.  He’s going to miss the first month of the season (left knee) but he’ll never reach his potential until he fixes his jumper.

15. Charlotte Bobcats – New GM Rich Cho is taking the build slowly and smartly approach and that’s probably a wise move.  At the very least it’s a direction which is something this franchise has lacked under Michael Jordan’s ownership.  New additions Ramon Sessions, Ben Gordon and Brendan Haywood are all legitimate role players so at the very least Charlotte shouldn’t look like a D-League side anymore.  I do have to question the hiring of Mike Dunlap though since rookie coaches and bad teams never mix.

Eyes On – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.  Are you sensing a theme that rookies are the only reason to watch bad squads?  The 2^nd pick is supposed to be the next Scottie Pippen if you can stomach watching the Cats.

Now or Never – Byron Mullens.  He finally got some minutes in his third year and his PER exploded (0.76>3.53>13.02).  If he improves his rebounding and defense he could get overpaid as a RFA.

Final Four – Miami, Atlanta, Indiana, Boston

Eastern Finals – Miami, Boston