Quarter Pole Review

After a year off due the lockout, and with Washington, Minnesota & Memphis all playing their 20^th game on 12/14, the eighth annual QPR is back!  The East has already separated into 9 teams contending for the 8 playoff seeds (sorry Orlando).  As usual the West is deeper and more wide open with 11 clubs vying for the 8 spots (sorry Portland).

Before I get started I have to pour some out for my guru, ESPN’s John Hollinger.  The creator of PER is leaving the World Wide Leader to become the Vice President of Basketball Operations for the Memphis Grizzlies.  In his eight years at the Mothership I probably read every single one of his articles (excluding whenever I was in Europe).  I don’t know what I’ll do without his PER Diem every day, so in honor of the “Professor” I’m going heavy on the stats I view as most important in this QPR.

OFG% = opponent field goal percentage

RDF = rebound differential

3P% = 3-point field goal percentage

PDF = point differential

SoS = strength of schedule

ATLANTIC

New York Knicks (18-5) – They are 2^nd in 3P% (41%), 4^th in PDF (+7.1) and both Carmelo Anthony (26.13) and Tyson Chandler (23.34) are rocking career high PER’s.  Then Jason Kidd (19.45) is sporting his best PER since ’06-07 and Rasheed Wallace (17.00) since ’07-08.  NY does have some negative stats though, like being 22^nd in OFG% (45.4%) and 28^th in RDF (-4.2), but their chemistry is great...for now.

Brooklyn Nets (13-10) – They are 27^th in OFG% (46.1%) but are tied for 10^th in PDF (+2.1) against the 5^th best SoS (.523).  Deron Williams (17.54) & Kris Humphries (14.64) have their lowest PER’s since ’06-07, Gerald Wallace (14.18) since ’03-04 and Joe Johnson (13.75) since ’02-03.  What has saved Brooklyn is career high PER’s from Brook Lopez (23.79) and amazingly enough Andray Blatche (23.89).

Philadelphia 76ers (12-11) – They are 24^th in RDF (-2.9) and 21^st in PDF (-2.3) against the 2^nd easiest SoS (.469).  Career high PER’s from Jrue Holiday (18.25) and Evan Turner (15.66) have carried them.  But it’s impossible to judge Philly without Andrew Bynum (left knee).  Bynum has an appointment on 12/20 that will let him know if he’ll be out “another month” or if he can “ramp it up.”  Stay tuned…

Boston Celtics (12-11) – They are 20^th in OFG% (45%), 27^th in RDF (-4) and have a negative PDF (-.5).  Jeff Green has his lowest PER (11.81) since his rookie season, Brandon Bass his lowest (11.51) since ’06-07 and Courtney Lee (7.99) & Jason Terry (13.2) sport career lows.  It’s still too early to write them off but Boston has looked very old and disinterested at times and I no longer see that extra gear.

Toronto Raptors (5-19) – They are 23^rd in OFG% (45.7%), 26^th in RDF (-3.4) & 3P% (33.2%) and 27^th in PDF (-6.2).  Andrea Bargnani has his lowest PER (12.67) since ’07-08 and said Toronto is “pretty much the worst team in the NBA.”  Ed Davis (20.85), Kyle Lowry (20.57) and DeMar DeRozan (14.68) have career high PER’s, but Davis only plays 17.5 minutes a game and Lowry has missed 8 games already.

CENTRAL

Chicago Bulls (13-9) – They are tied for 2^nd in OFG% (42.6%), are 3^rd in RDF (+4.2) and 8^th in PDF (+2.6) with Derrick Rose not playing a game.  Credit has to go Coach Tom Thibodeau and his next man up/no excuses style.  I do worry about Luol Deng (41.1) and Joakim Noah (40.2) being 1^st and 2^nd respectively in minutes per game league wide, but as of now they are sitting pretty for when Rose returns.

Milwaukee Bucks (12-10) – They are basically middle of the road in every statistical category except 3P% where they are 28^th (32.6%).  They have a negative PDF (-1.2) and Coach Scott Skiles is up to his normal change-the-rotation-every-single-night tricks.  Ersan Ilyasova has been a major disappointment with his lowest PER (13.99) since his rookie year.  Barring a trade I see Milwaukee finishing 9th yet again.

Indiana Pacers (13-11) – They are 1^st in OFG% (40.9%!), 5^th in RDF (+3.8) and have a positive PDF (+.6) without the services of Danny Granger while playing against the 2^nd easiest SoS (.469).  David West (20.74), George Hill (16.93) and Paul George (16.78) all have career high PER’s which has offset Roy Hibbert’s career low (14.67).  If healthy Indiana can be a very dangerous side come playoff time.

Detroit Pistons (7-19) – They are unremarkable in any statistical category outside of 3P% where they are tied for 9^th (36.4%).  The bad news is they are 23^rd in PDF (-3.3) against the 8^th easiest SoS (.486).  Greg Monroe (17.86) and Jonas Jerebko (10.93) have both been a disappointing putting up career low PER’s, but Andre Drummond has been a surprise with the 2^nd highest PER (21.10) among rookies.

Cleveland Cavaliers (5-20) – They are 28^th in OFG% (47%) and 26^th in PDF (-5.8) but superstar-in-the-making Kyrie Irving has missed 11 games.  They are 10^th in RDF (+1.7) on the strength of Anderson Varejao’s career high PER (21.99) but no one else on the roster outside of Varejao and Irving has a PER higher than 12.8.  Cleveland has no shot at the playoffs but Irving alone makes them worth watching.

SOUTHEAST

Miami Heat (15-6) – They are 3^rd in 3P% (40.6), 6^th in PDF (+5) and have played the 3^rd toughest SoS (.531).  They are middle of pack in OFG% (13^th) and RDF (tied 17^th) but the big take away thus far has been how much they coast.  It has bitten then a few times causing Coach Erik Spoelstra to ditch his “position-less” lineup in favor of a more traditional one.  When committed, Miami is still very tough to beat.

Atlanta Hawks (14-7) – They are 7^th in PDF (+2.9), 10^th in OFG% (44%) and tied for 9^th in 3P% (36.4%) against the 10^th toughest SoS (.508).  Outside of Devin Harris’ career low (11.84) every other player is right around their career norms for PER.  Atlanta has great chemistry and gets it done by playing smart and hard.  They are a notch below elite status but can still beat anybody when they play well.

Orlando Magic (10-13) – They are 8^th in OFG% (43.8%) and tied for 12^th in RDF (+.9) but are 27^th in 3P% (33%) and 20^th in PDF (-2.2) against the 11^th easiest SoS (.493).  My biggest take away from them so far is that Jacque Vaughn can really coach.  They are still on the fringes of the playoff race with Hedo Turkoglu missing 22 games and Jameer Nelson 7.  If you don’t come to play hard Orlando will beat you.

Charlotte Bobcats (7-16) – They are 30^th in RDF (-4.5) & PDF (-7.9) and 25^th in OFG% (45.9%).  Youngsters Kemba Walker (19.68) & Gerald Henderson (16.74) have career high PER’s, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (16.48) is 6^th in rookie PER and veteran Ben Gordon (17.69) has his highest PER since ’06-07.  Rookie Coach Mike Dunlap does get them to play hard and they are no longer an unwatchable mess.

Washington Wizards (3-18) – They are 29^th in both 3P% (31.6%) & PDF (-7.7) and tied for 21^st in RDF (-2.2).  John Wall has yet to play; Nene Hilario has missed 11 games, Trevor Booker 12, Trevor Ariza 6 and A.J. Price 4.  They are no fun to watch and you have to wonder how much longer Coach Randy Wittman and GM Ernie Grunfeld will be employed since it’s well past time for Owner Ted Leonsis to clean house.

SOUTHWEST

San Antonio Spurs (19-6) – They are 5^th in 3P% (38%), 7^th in OFG% (43.7%) and 3^rd in PDF (+7.8) against the 6^th toughest SoS (.517).  Tim Duncan (24.99) has his highest PER since ’06-07, Tony Parker (22.73) since ’08-09 and Tiago Splitter (21.68) has a career high in only 19.7 minutes per game.  Kawhi Leonard has missed 16 games and Stephen Jackson 15 yet SA hasn’t missed a beat. 

Memphis Grizzlies (15-6) – They are 6^th in OFG% (43.5%), 7^th in RDF (+3.1) and 5^th in PDF (+6.2) against the 7^th toughest SoS (.512).  Marc Gasol (20.74), Mike Conley (17.58) and Quincy Pondexter (10.68) all have career high PER’s offsetting Rudy Gay’s lowest (16.37) since ’09-10 and Tony Allen’s lowest ever (10.56).  Memphis is not only the dark horse to come out of the West but also to win it all.

Houston Rockets (11-11) – They are middle of the pack statistically everywhere except OFG% (45.8%) where they are 24^th.  Greg Smith (22.68), Chandler Parsons (15.49) and Omer Asik (13.60) all sport career high PER’s.  James Harden and Jeremy Lin have yet to figure out how to play together but that’s to be expected with Coach Kevin McHale missing 13 games.  These boys are fun to watch though.

Dallas Mavericks (11-13) – They are 6^th in 3P% (37.7%) and 9^th in OFG% (43.9%) but a lowly 29^th in RDF (-4.4) and 19^th in PDF (-1.7) against the easiest SoS (.463) in the league.  O.J. Mayo has been a revelation in Dirk Nowitzki’s absence with a career high PER of 18.36.  Coach Rick Carlisle deserves credit for keeping Dallas afloat but even Dirk’s return won’t be enough for them to make the playoffs.

New Orleans Hornets (5-17) – They are 25^th in OFG% (46%) and 28^th in PDF (-6.5) against the toughest schedule (.544) overall.  Surprisingly they are 4^th in 3P% (39.4%) even without Eric Gordon taking the court (or being in the state of Louisiana for that matter).  Number one pick Anthony Davis has missed 13 games but leads all rookies in PER (24.13) and fellow rookie Brian Roberts (16.61) is 5^th.

NORTHWEST

Oklahoma City Thunder (19-4) – They are tied for 2^nd in OFG% (42.6%), 8^th in RDF (+2.9) and 1^st in both 3P% (41.6%!) and PDF (+9.3).  The only nit you could pick is they’ve done it against the 6^th easiest SoS (.483).  Kevin Durant (28.23) and Serge Ibaka (20.03) both sport career highs PER’s and Kevin Martin has fit in very well.  There isn’t much not to like about this group but I’m just not sold on them…yet.

Minnesota Timberwolves (12-9) – They are 2^nd in RDF (+4.9), 10^th in PDF (+2.1) and tied for 11^th in OFG% (44.1%).  On the downside they are dead last in 3P% (29.8%) and have played the 4^th easiest SoS (.480).  Ricky Rubio missed 20 games, Brandon Roy 16, Chase Budinger 15 and Kevin Love 10.  If they can get healthy Minny will be uber-deep, ultra-entertaining to watch and dangerous in the playoffs.

Utah Jazz (13-12) – They are 8^th in 3P% (37%), 11^th in RDF (+1.1) and 13^th in PDF (+.7) but are only 21^st in OFG% (45.1%) against the 4^th easiest SoS (.480).  Derrick Favors (18.93) and Enes Kanter (14.73) are posting career high PER’s in only 21.8 and 15.2 minutes per game respectively.  I expect one or both of Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap to be traded this season since Utah is too inconsistent to make a real run.

Denver Nuggets (12-12) – They are 6^th in RDF (+3.3) but only 25^th in 3P% (33.4%) against the second toughest SoS (.534).  JaVale McGee (23.15) and Corey Brewer (13.78) have career high PER’s while Andre Iguodala (13.25) and Ty Lawson (15.02) are posting career lows.  Coach George Karl has done a poor job with his lineup choices and rotation patterns but Denver has too much talent to miss the playoffs.

Portland Trail Blazers (10-12) – They are tied for last in OFG% (47.1%), 22^nd in PDF (-3), tied for 21^st in RDF (-2.2) and tied for 20^th in 3P% (34.1%) against the 8^th easiest SoS (.486).  J.J. Hickson leads the team in PER with a career high 19.91 and Damian Lillard (17.74) and Meyers Leonard (13.05) rank 4^th and 12^th among rookies respectively.  Portland is rebuilding and has some nice pieces moving forward.

PACIFIC

Los Angeles Clippers (17-6) – They are 4^th in OFG% (42.9%) and 2^nd in PDF (+8.4) against the 3^rd toughest SoS (.531).  Eric Bledsoe (24.18), DeAndre Jordan (17.42) and Matt Barnes (16.98) all sport career high PER’s and Jamal Crawford has his 2^nd highest ever (17.57).  “A Tribe Called Bench” has carried them and their chemistry is much better than I thought it would be.  The Clips are for real.

Golden State Warriors (16-8) – They are 5^th in OFG% (43.2%), 4^th in RDF (+4.1), 11^th in 3P% (36.2%) and 12^th in PDF (+1.2) against the 9^th toughest SoS (.509).  Brandon Rush was lost in the 2^nd game of the season and Andrew Bogut has missed 20 games.  I thought GS would be better than most, but that was with Bogut.  Coach Mark Jackson deserves major credit for making them a solid playoff team already.

Los Angeles Lakers (10-14) – They are 1^st in RDF (+5.5), 7^th in 3P% (37.2%) and 9^th in PDF (+2.3) against the 10^th easiest SoS (.490).  Jordan Hill (16.97) and Jodie Meeks (14.35) boast career high PER’s and Kobe Bryant (25.68) sports his highest mark since ’06-07.  On the flip side Antawn Jamison (13.97) and Pau Gasol (15.07) have career lows and Dwight Howard (20.76) his lowest since ’05-06.  The Lakers are an ugly mess to watch but Gasol should be back on 12/18 and Steve Nash on 12/22 then we’ll really see what Coach Mike D’Antoni’s famed offensive system is really made of.  I have no idea what to make of this team until then.

Phoenix Suns (9-15) – They are tied for last in OFG% (47.1%), 23^rd in RDF (-2.5), tied for 22^nd in 3P% (34%) and 24^th in PDF (-4.1) against the 6^th easiest SoS (.483).  Goran Dragic (20.08) has a career high PER and Jermaine O’Neal his highest (18.59) since ’06-07 while at the other end Michael Beasley (9.99) has a career low.  This is a bad mix of guys that don’t like playing together; some trades are needed.

Sacramento Kings (7-15) – They are 25^th in RDF (-3.1) & PDF (-5.5) against the 8^th toughest SoS (.510).    Jimmer Fredette (18.45) has a career high PER and Tyreke Evans (18.19) his highest since his rookie season.  Meanwhile Marcus Thornton (14.72), Aaron Brooks (11.31) and James Johnson (6.37) all possess career lows.  This bunch has no idea how to play and firing Coach Keith Smart won’t help any.

Quarter Pole Awards

Defensive Player – Joakim Noah (Chicago)

Sixth Man – Kevin Martin (Oklahoma City)

Coach – Mark Jackson (Golden State)

Rookie – Damian Lillard (Portland)

MVP – Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City)

All NBA

PG – Chris Paul (Clippers)

SG – Kobe Bryant (Lakers)

SF – Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City)

PF – LeBron James (Miami)

C – Tim Duncan (San Antonio)