Finals

I went 1-1 on my Conference Finals picks with Memphis reminding me of a valuable lesson I’m sure we all have learned before: Pick with your head and not your gut.  A 10-4 record in the playoffs is nothing to brag about so instead I’ll point to having picked at least one Finals team in 7 of the past 8 Octobers.

When it comes to statistics these two sides are virtually identical across the board.  I had to dig deep to come up with three meaningful categories where there was a sizable difference.  The first is turnovers per game where Miami was 6^th best (13.3) and San Antonio 17^th (14.1).  The next is fouls per game where the Spurs were 1^st overall (17.4) and the Heat 8^th (18.7).  But the most intriguing number I found is almost counterintuitive; SA played at the 6^th fastest place league wide (96.4 possessions per game) and Miami was only 23^rd (93.0).  Who would have thought that?

As for the matchups there is intrigue across the board.  The Spurs have a top end LeBron James defender in Kawhi Leonard but after Kawhi the likes of Boris Diaw and Tracy McGrady (yep that T-Mac) have no chance to check the King.  With Dwyane Wade (right knee) obviously not himself Danny Green will be able to do a better than average job containing him.  Heck even Manu Ginobili will likely be able to stay in front of Wade right now.  Chris Bosh (right ankle) was downright awful against Indiana averaging 11 points and 4.3 rebounds on 37.7% shooting.  Things won’t get any easier for Bosh with Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter on him this series.

For the Heat the key matchup is Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole on Tony Parker.  Both Mario and Norris are decent defenders but a healthy Parker is handful for anyone.  I actually think Cole stands a better chance than Chalmers but for Norris to stay on the floor he’ll have to continue to shoot the three at the 57.7% clip he has been in the playoffs.  I’m sure Wade will be the primary Ginobili defender but it’s possible that Shane Battier gets a chance too if Manu heats up.  I don’t think Bosh can guard Duncan on the low block so that leaves the undersized Udonis Haslem, the frenetic Chris “Birdman” Andersen and the offensively inept Joel Anthony.  Splitter can’t be forgotten on offense either as he has “x-factor” written all over him.

This brings me to my next point; while SA is the deeper squad talent wise and can match up with any small-ball formation Miami trots out there, Spurs Coach Gregg Popovich must resists the temptation and stay BIG.  Likewise SA needs to play slower and follow the Pacers model with Duncan, Splitter, Leonard and Green playing the parts of David West, Roy Hibbert, Paul George and Lance Stephenson.  For the Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra needs to emphasize playing the “pace and space” style that served them so well during the regular season along with taking the ball to the rim consistently and not settling for too many jump shots.

The Spurs will have had NINE full days of rest by tip-off compared to only two for Miami.  I know Indiana just physically beat up the Heat over the course of seven games but SA is bound to get off to a slow start in Game 1 on the road (gambling alert).  This Final is a virtual toss-up and chock full of interesting story lines all over the place so the TV ratings should be stout.  While it certainly has the all the ingredients to go the distance something tells me (is that my gut again?) not to pick against the best player of his generation...in his prime...with revenge on his mind...AND home court advantage.  Miami in 6.