First Round

EAST

Brooklyn at Toronto – The Nets purposely lost 4 of their final 5 games to drop to #6 and play the Raptors.  I’m not sure why because I can’t find a single meaningful statistic where Brooklyn is better.  That said they do have the experience edge over Toronto in a big way which is what most are pointing to as the difference maker.  I tend to look at it differently because the Raps are younger, more athletic, play superior defense and rebound WAY better.  This might not be the prettiest series to watch but I expect every game to be competitive and possibly chippy.  In the end I’m siding with home court and the better coach.  Toronto in 7.

Atlanta at Indiana – Much has been made about the Pacers limping to the finish line at 10-13.  The Hawks were also one of only two sub-.500 teams to at least split the season series with Indy.  Atlanta’s plan will be to spread the Pacers out with 3-point shooters at every position.  That might be enough for them to steal a game but I see Indy using this series to reestablish their identity and mojo.  Pacers in 5.

Charlotte at Miami – The Bobcats are the better defensive side by any measure you’d like to use and they have Gerald Henderson and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to defend Dwyane Wade and LeBron James respectively.  Conversely I don’t see Chris Bosh or Udonis Haslem slowing down Al Jefferson even a little bit.  In fact Heat coach Erik Spoelstra’s best option for Big Al is probably Chris “Birdman” Andersen.  I tried to paint an optimistic picture there but the reality is even a half-engaged Miami should cruise.  Heat in 4.

Washington at Chicago – On paper I actually think the Wizards have more talent than the Bulls do especially with Nene Hilario healthy again.  For Washington to be successful John Wall needs to push the ball early and often and get open 3-point looks in transition for Bradley Beal, Trevor Ariza and Martell Webster.  Chicago is going to want to slow the game down and grind the Wiz to a pulp on both ends.  Even if the Bulls are able to do that they will still have multiple games where they can’t throw a rock in the ocean.  This series fascinates me and is a virtual coin flip in my mind but I’m going with the home court/coach combo again.  Chicago in 7.

WEST

Golden State at Clippers – The big story here is that Andrew Bogut (fractured right rib) is unlikely to play meaning we’ll see a lot of Jermaine O’Neal, Marreese Speights and possibly Hilton Armstrong in his place.  The Warriors are a defense first side so losing their back line anchor doesn’t bode well.  You can look for GS Coach Mark Jackson to go with some small-ball lineups but unfortunately for him Los Angeles can match up with any combination he sends out there.  The Clips are getting healthy at the right time and are no slouches on defense themselves (#1 in opponent 3P%).  This series will feature lots of high flying offense on both ends with a few cheap shots thrown in for good measure but I just don’t see the Dubs having enough without Bogut.  LA in 6.

Memphis at Oklahoma City –It’s kind of shocking just how similar these teams are when you compare their important metrics, and I’m not just saying that because the Grizzlies were my preseason pick to make the Finals.  The Thunder have the horses up front in Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison to deal with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.  On the flip side Mike Conley, Courtney Lee, Tayshaun Prince, Tony Allen and possibly even James Johnson are decent options to check Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.  This series has a chance to be highly compelling TV but ultimately I think OKC will have too much on the offensive end for Memphis to match consistently.  Thunder in 6.

Dallas at San Antonio – This series features the two best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA so there is potential for some eye-pleasing offense here.  That said I just can’t find anything that the Mavericks do better than the Spurs.  I know I just wrote not to underestimate Big D Coach Rick Carlisle but he’s going up against the master here in SA’s Gregg Popovich.  Spurs in 4.

Portland at Houston – There are interesting individual matchups all over the court in this one starting with Nicolas Batum versus Chandler Parsons as do-it-all SFs.  Then there’s the gritty Wesley Matthews having to deal with foul drawing maven James Harden.  The Trail Blazers have Robin Lopez and possibly Joel Freeland (right knee) to check Dwight Howard but on defense I think Howard will have to cross match and guard LaMarcus Aldridge because Terrence Jones doesn’t stand a chance against the L-Train.  That could cause the Rockets some issues as could Patrick Beverley (right knee) not being 100%.  If Beverley isn’t right Damian Lillard could be the guy who swings the series in PDX’s favor.  Statistically these clubs are pretty darn even across the board so I think this series will feature multiple tight games that are decided in crunch time.  You can also expect to see a ton of 3-pointers from both teams and an all around entertaining brand of basketball.  In the end though I have to go with the best player (Harden) and home court.  Rockets in 7.