World Cup Preview

RECAP 

The United States Men’s National Team (USMNT) began their Send-Off Series with a 2-0 win over Azerbaijan on 5/27 in San Francisco.  The match got off to a nervy start when Captain Clint Dempsey was scratched during warm-ups with groin soreness.  From there the USMNT struggled to break down the Milli who kept ten men behind the ball at all times.  With the opposition playing so compact the 4-4-2 diamond formation that debuted on 4/2 in a friendly against Mexico didn’t produce many chances.  The USMNT did dominate possession though (70%-30%) and finally broke through in the 75^th minute when substitute Mix Diskerud booted home a rebound off a Michael Bradley shot.  Aron Johannsson (another sub) added the second in the 81^st minute when he headed in a Brad Davis corner.  

Overall there wasn’t a ton to take away from this match since Azerbaijan played a style that the USMNT is unlikely to see at the World Cup (WC).  That said they did get the win and it has to be noted that the windy conditions and heavy legs from two weeks of intense training also played a part in them looking sluggish. 

On 6/1 in Harrison, NJ the diamond formation was in full effect creating a ton of chances against a very wily Turkish side.  The only problem was that we pressed so much offensively that our back line was put under a lot of pressure and looked extremely vulnerable.  The statistics back it up too as the Ay Yıldızlılar had the edge in possession (57%-43%), shots (23-8) and shots on goal (7-4).  Of course we did get the win thanks to a brilliant goal by Fabian Johnson (his first) in the 26^th minute.  The one-two he played with Bradley was sublime and lends credence to having Michael playing a more creative role rather than a defensive one.  Dempsey got the second tally when he poked home a misplayed clearance by Turkish defender Hakan Balta.  It wasn’t all roses though as Geoff Cameron was judged to have handled Mustafa Pekternek’s shot on the goal line in the 90^th minute.  Selcuk Inan slotted home the subsequent penalty kick (PK) to round out the 2-1 score line.  

I took two things away from this match.  One, when we put our minds to it we can create chances against anyone.  Two, our defense is not up to the task when we press numbers forward. 

In Jacksonville, FL on 6/7 it all came together for the USMNT against Nigeria.  Manager Jürgen Klinsmann inserted Kyle Beckerman into the starting XI and planted him right in front of the back four at the base of the diamond.  This shifted Jermaine Jones to the left and allowed the USMNT to have their most solid performance on both ends against an opponent that is very similar to Ghana.  On offense we played the now seemingly preferred 4-4-2 attacking diamond.  However when the Super Eagles had the ball we morphed into almost a 4-1-4-1 with both Dempsey and Bradley tracking back to clog up the midfield and not leave the back line so exposed.  This tactical switch along with Beckerman playing the holding destroyer role he is built for made Klinsmann look very smart. 

That’s not all though.  Jozy Altidore finally got off the schnide in a big way with a brace.  His first goal came in the 32^nd minute off a really professional counter attack that saw the ball move quickly from Cameron in the back to Jones to Alejandro Bedoya to Fabian who set it up on a platter for Jozy.  Sometimes all you need is a tap in to get yourself going and that proved to be true as Altidore’s next strike was top-notch.  He chested down a long ball from Bradley, controlled the ball with one touch, got himself some space with the second touch and then blasted home a rocket from 15 yards out.  Things would have gone absolutely perfect had Matt Besler not pulled down Victor Moses in the box in the 86^th minute.  Moses made the ensuing PK ruining Tim Howard’s clean sheet on his 100^th cap. 

This match was a great approximation of what the USMNT will see against Ghana and it really couldn’t have gone any better besides the late PK.  We were able to create chances (14 shots, 6 on goal) while not being broken down even though Nigeria had the possession edge (53%-47%).  I suspect all three of the USMNT’s matches in Brazil will follow a similar pattern so call me cautiously optimistic right now. 

After going 3-0 in the Send-Off Series for the first time ever (also the only side heading into the WC on a 3-game winning streak) the USMNT landed in São Paulo on 6/9 a little before 9 AM local time.  They were supposed to have a closed-door scrimmage against Belgium on their training grounds at São Paulo F.C. on 6/12 but Belgium Manager Marc Wilmots didn’t want to risk being caught in a traffic jam stemming from the subway strike.  This is really the only thing that has gone wrong in the lead up to the first match, other than Brad Davis and Timmy Chandler having “unspecified knocks” that have kept them out of training.  The USMNT flew to Natal, the site of their first match, on 6/13 to have three days to get used to the muggy conditions in the northeast part of the country. 

LINEUP 

For the match against the Black Stars on 6/16 (3 PM Pacific on ESPN) I expect Jürgen to deploy more or less the same lineup that he did against Nigeria.  In front of Howard’s goal going left to right will be DaMarcus Beasley, Besler, Cameron and Fabian.  That group played together in all of the Send-Off matches except against Turkey where Chandler started over Beasley.  In front of them will likely be Beckerman doing what he does best.  I have two concerns about Kyle playing a big role though.  The first is his lack of foot speed against the best in the world.  Secondly playing him means we lose an attacking player in the starting XI.  That is small price to pay if it gets us 3 points but it does limit our offense some. 

Jermaine seems destined to play on the left side of the diamond and either Bedoya or Graham Zusi will be opposite him on the right.  Ideally you’d like to have both Alejandro and Graham’s playmaking ability on the pitch together but as the Turkey match showed we need more defense than offense right now.  Bradley, Dempsey and Altidore will shoulder most of the creative responsibilities up front and I give Klinsmann credit for not over-thinking having our three most talented players deployed where they can work together. 

As for substitutes with Chandler’s status uncertain I don’t see any subs coming in for the back four unless there is an injury.  If any of Omar Gonzalez, John Brooks or DeAndre Yedlin sees the pitch we are in big trouble.  Howard is one of the best keepers in the world and it would stink to lose him but Brad Guzan is a more than capable backup if it comes to that.  Whoever doesn’t start out of Bedoya and Zusi is the first option in the midfield followed by Davis.  Julian Green looked like a boy amongst men when he played versus Turkey so he is just along for the ride.  (Yes, Landon Donovan should have made the 23 over him.)  Up front one of Chris Wondolowski or Johannsson could be used although it was rumored that Aron wasn’t ready to play since he really struggled with the intense training that the USMNT went through.  Lastly my boy Mixy could come in for really anyone from Beckerman to Dempsey depending on what Jürgen thinks the team needs at the time. 

HISTORY 

Every time the USMNT has earned points out of their first match in the WC they have advanced past the group stage.  In 1994 we drew with Switzerland 1-1, 2002 we beat Portugal 3-2 and in 2010 another 1-1 draw this time with England.  The other side of that coin shows that when we lose the first match we never advance.  In 1990 we lost 1-5 to Czechoslovakia, 1998 to Germany 0-2 and in 2006 it was the Czech Republic again 0-3.  You’ll also notice a pattern of us advancing out of the group every other cycle meaning we are due to be eliminated in 2014.  I choose to ignore that and instead focus on a how a win against the Black Stars in our first match would galvanize the country and ratchet up interest about 10-fold. 

By now everyone knows that Ghana has knocked us out of the last two WCs.  In 2006 they took us out in the final group match 2-1 when a win would have seen us advance.  In 2010 they got us in extra time in the round of 16 by the same final score line of 2-1.  The players on both sides keep saying how none of that matters since both teams feature different players, coaches and systems.  Well let me be the first to say that it matters to me.  I WANT REVENGE!  Sure there may be some differences between the two but one thing remains the same and it’s the crest on the front of the kit. 

PREDICTION 

I have no doubt that we can beat Ghana if we play our best but we can’t have any momentary mental lapses on the back line.  It also would be HUGE to score the first goal (for a change) and dictate the match from there.  But being that we are the USMNT don’t be surprised if we go down 0-1 early.  Going into a WC as a USMNT supporter you also have to expect that a referee will make a terrible call that goes against us.  Either a good goal that we score will be disallowed or an offside call will be missed allowing the opposition to score.  This WC has already shown us that a dive in the box can easily sway the wrong ref.  Sweden’s Jonas Eriksson has been named the referee for our first match and I’d prefer a European any day over an African, Asian or South American. 

Even if some kind of disaster strikes us early there is no reason to abandon hope.  We are a resilient bunch and can create the necessary chances to get back into any match.  I honestly think that world football pundits are underrating us a little right now.  I watch all of our matches and we can hang with anybody these days, Germany and Portugal included.  Who would have thought that fellow CONCACAF side Costa Rica would beat powerhouse Uruguay 3-1?  My point being that we will never be the most talented group but at this point you take us lightly at your own risk because on any given match day we can win regardless of opponent. 

With that said I do expect us to shock the world and advance out of the Group of Death.  I think you’ll see an exciting match against Ghana that we win 3-2 or at the very least draw 2-2.  Playing Portugal with an ailing Cristiano Ronaldo in the rainforest of Manaus where the condition of the pitch isn’t the greatest doesn’t scare me.  In fact I’m most confident that we beat A Selecção.  Heading into the final group match against Die Mannschaft having six points and not needing a result would be fabulous because even as overly-optimistic as I might be I don’t see that one going well for us.  Keep in mind that if Germany has already qualified for the knockout round Manager Joachim Löw might do his old pal Klinsy a favor by giving a few of his best XI some “rest.” 

I’ll have more after the Ghana match but until then enjoy the festivities.