NBA Finals

The first NBA Finals rematch since the summer of ’98 when the Bulls and Jazz clashed has everyone giddy with anticipation, right?  I mean people should be excited with Miami going for a 3-peat and Tim Duncan and Coach Gregg Popovich trying to join the 5-ring club.  The Heat would be just the fourth franchise to win three straight joining the Lakers (’52-54 & ’00-02), Celtics (’59-66) and Bulls (’91-93 & ’96-98).  Duncan would join contemporary Kobe Bryant while passing rival Shaquille O’Neal and Pop would join Pat Riley and John Kundla in a tie for third overall.  But it just feels like the general public isn’t as into it as they should be with all these historical ramifications on the line.  Or maybe I’m just projecting my own feelings onto everyone else as I count down the days to the World Cup. 

I was very tempted to just reference Zach Lowe’s preview, give my prediction and call it good.  Instead I’ll try to force out some actual analysis.  Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra has used three different starting lineups in the playoffs with the latest featuring Rashard Lewis as the PF du jour.  I think Spo needs to stick with that and resist the temptation to play Udonis Haslem any more than he absolutely has to.  Chris Andersen is the best option to match San Antonio’s size but Birdman is slightly injured (left thigh) and his production drops once he crosses the 20-minute mark anyway.  With Mike Miller gone the Heat are going to need one of Shane Battier or James Jones to join Ray Allen in providing timely 3-point shooting. 

For the Spurs a lot will be riding on the health of Tony Parker’s left ankle.  He says he’s fine and with potentially three different 2-day breaks between Finals games (the NBA finally switched back to the 2-2-1-1-1 format) he should at least be able to maintain the health level he starts out with.  Even if he can’t go Patty Mills has done a fine job filling in for Tony this year.  Granted Mills is no Parker but SA did go 11-3 without the speedy Frenchman this season.  Kawhi Leonard is a good option for LeBron James, Duncan can guard Chris Bosh and Danny Green, Manu Ginobili and Marco Bellinelli can defend this version of Dwyane Wade. 

Rest or rust won’t be an issue in this series since Miami had five days off and the Spurs four.  What will be an issue is depth, or lack thereof.  Rotations are generally shortened in the playoffs but SA has a legitimate 12 guys that will be ready to play and contribute at any given moment.  The Heat can basically rely on seven players (Mario Chalmers, Norris Cole, Wade, Ray, Bron, Bosh and Bird) which gives Pop a lot more adjustment options over the course of seven games.  Then you factor in that Miami has beaten an undermanned Charlotte side, an overrated Brooklyn squad and an imploding Indiana club.  I know you can only play whose in front of you but I think the Heat would have struggled quite a bit more with Dallas, Portland and Oklahoma City.

Much has been made about the Spurs and the “bad taste in their mouth” from last year’s implosion.  Extra motivation never hurts but the bottom line is that SA is a better unit than they were last season.  It’s borderline idiotic to pick against the best player in the world in his prime but this Miami team just isn’t as good as last year’s version.  So if the Spurs are better and the Heat are worse there’s only one conclusion to make.  SA in 5.