Basketball World Cup Preview

With college football starting this weekend, and the NFL next weekend, I’m pretty sure the inaugural FIBA Basketball World Cup (used to be the World Championship) is flying way under the radar for most casual sports fans.  Never fear though, that’s what I’m here for.  The B-Ball World Cup (WC) runs from 8/30 to 9/14 and takes place at six cities in Spain.  The WC consists of 24 teams split into four groups with the top four teams from each group being seeded into a 16-team knockout bracket.  Around the globe the WC is viewed as more important than the Olympics but that obviously isn’t the case is good ole USA.  The main motivation to win the WC for The Yanks, besides a shiny new gold medal of course, is it allows them to skip qualifying for the Olympics at the 2015 FIBA Americas Championship.

With the particulars out of the way USA Basketball (USAB) has already played four friendlies leading up to the WC.  They beat Brazil 95-78 in Chicago, Dominican Republic 105-62 & Puerto Rico 112-86 in New York and Slovenia 101-71 in Las Palmas, Canary Islands.  Along the way USAB Chairman Jerry Colangelo and Coach Mike Krzyzewski lost a player to injury, had another withdraw unexpectedly and made seven cuts. 

After Paul George’s gruesome leg injury forced his withdrawal the first round of cuts saw Bradley Beal, Paul Millsap and John Wall shown the door.  Then in a big surprise Kevin Durant withdrew out of nowhere citing “physical and mental fatigue.”  Coach K had built USAB’s offense around KD during training camp in Las Vegas and losing Durant so soon after George took away two-thirds of USAB’s projected starting frontcourt.  The final four cuts were Gordon Hayward, Kyle Korver, Damian Lillard and Chandler Parsons.

The final 12 chosen by Colangelo and Coach K were Kyrie Irving, Stephen Curry, Derrick Rose, Klay Thompson, James Harden, DeMar DeRozan, Kenneth Faried, Rudy Gay, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, Andre Drummond and Mason Plumlee.  It’s worth noting that both Gay and Plumlee were not on the original invitee’s list and earned their way onto the team with their play.  Likewise I think that DeRozan and Drummond made the final cut based on the big performances they each had against the Dominican Republic.

When pressed on the matter of his rotation Coach K says he’s still experimenting but other than gamesmanship with the other countries I think the rotation is pretty much set.  Kyrie will start at PG, Steph at SG, Harden at SF, Faried at PF and Davis at center.  They are backed up by Rose, Klay, DeRozan, Gay and Cousins.  DeMar is the 10^th man and probably won’t play at all in close games.  Drummond is the 11^th man and Plumlee the 12^th and as far as I can tell they are insurance policies for Spain only.

The overall makeup of the final roster is a little atypical for USAB in recent tournaments since they kept less shooting in favor of more big men.  I’m sure that is to deal with Spain’s frontcourt of Pau Gasol, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka but since USAB can only meet Spain in the final game I’m a little worried that we might not even get there.

I watched all four friendlies and I haven’t been impressed with this group so far at all.  The raw numbers don’t look too bad when you consider their point differential is +29 points per game.  Their rebound differential is also an impressive +9.8 per game.  They are forcing opponents into 18.3 turnovers per game and average 19.5 stocks (steals+blocks) per game.  The shooting numbers (52.1% FG, 39.5% 3FG & 73.5% FT) aren’t superlative but they aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination either.  To my eyes this squad just doesn’t look to have that intangible “it” that their predecessors under Colangelo and Coach K have had.

When they need a score in crunch time they really have no one that can get them an easy bucket outside of “Boogie” Cousins in the low post.  I’m well aware that Irving, Rose, Harden, DeRozan and Gay can beat their man off the dribble whenever they want but in FIBA those lanes all the way to the hoop just aren’t there consistently.  That means those drives turn into mid-range jumpers…which are not Kyrie, Derrick, James or Rudy’s specialty…or kick-outs. 

This brings me to 3-point shooters.  By my count Curry and Thompson are the only deadeye marksmen from three on the roster.  Other guys can and will shoot 3’s but the likes of Irving, Harden, DeRozan and Gay are nowhere near the level of Steph and Klay.  If both of the “Splash Brothers” are off on the same night I can see USAB really struggling.  That is why I would have kept Korver around to be the 12^th man over Plumlee.  FIBA basketball has always been about 3-point shooting over low post defense so I really don’t understand keeping Mason over Kyle on the deep pine.  Now if Faried, Davis, Cousins and Drummond are all in foul trouble at the same time against Spain (always a possibility with FIBA referees) I may eat those words when Plumlee steps up but until then color me dubious.

So far USAB has hung around in games playing pretty good defense (41.7% OPFG) and running almost no set offense that I can decipher.  Their superior depth has basically worn the opposition down until they give up a 15-0 run followed by another 10-0 run not too long after and then it’s garbage time.  The thing is the way they are doing it by out-athleticing everyone it is too reminiscent of the “dark days” of USAB.  I’m already sick of watching Harden jack up bad shots or drive the lane flailing around looking for a foul call.  Curry and Thompson likewise have taken many ill-advised jumpers and Rudy Gay is being Rudy Gay disguised as a “stretch four.”  Derrick Rose’s game is also showing considerable signs of rust, which to be fair is not all that surprising.

I have seen some good things though starting with “Manimal” Faried’s hustle.  I’m not sure if his energy will translate when the level of competition picks up but against the lesser sides his work rate has been a wakeup call to the rest of his teammates.  The next is Anthony Davis.  “The Brow” is ready to explode onto the international scene but since he doesn’t have a go-to move on offense yet he has to do it with defense, freak athleticism and length.  So far Davis and Faried’s activity along with Kyrie Irving’s playmaking ability (5.7 AST/TO) has defined this team.

USAB was drawn into Group C and will play all of their group stage games in Barakaldo at the Bizkaia Arena.  Barakaldo is located at the very northern edge of Spain on the Bay of Biscay about an hour and a half drive from the French border.  Most pundits expect USAB to roll through their group and I tend to agree.  Turkey might be the exception and possibly the Mike Fratello coached Ukraine could present a few problems early.  Hopefully USAB gets a test from someone in their group but the more likely scenario is that the group stage, and even the early part of the knockout round, will just be a tune up for the semifinals and finals.

If I was a betting man I’d take “the field” over this USAB squad right now.  I just have a very bad feeling about this group with the way they play.  Even more concerning is that their body language hasn’t been the greatest thus far.  Potentially having to play Spain with all their big guns in Madrid for the gold doesn’t sit well with me either.  Granted USAB hasn’t been able to cake walk for years now but something tells me that our run of three straight major tournament wins is about to end…and it wouldn’t shock me if it happened before the final game.  I hope all the “superstars” that skipped this summer are ready to play in Mexico next summer at the FIBA Americas Championship.

USAB GROUP SCHEDULE

8/30 – Finland at 12:30 PM

8/31 – Turkey at 12:30 PM

9/2 – New Zealand at 8:30 AM

9/3 – Dominican Republic at 12:30 PM

9/4 – Ukraine at 8:30 AM

(all times Pacific & all games on ESPN)

KNOCKOUT SCHEDULE

9/6 – Round of 16 in Barcelona

9/9 – Quarterfinal in Barcelona

9/11 – Semifinal in Barcelona

9/14 – Final in Madrid

(assumes USAB is seeded as C1)