First Round

EAST 

Washington at Toronto – This matchup features a great defensive team in the Wizards (5^th in defensive efficiency) versus a great offensive team in the Raptors (3^rd in offensive efficiency).  They play at basically the same pace but Washington is the superior rebounding team (4^th in rebound rate compared to 19^th for T-Dot).  I give a slight edge in bench firepower and coaching to the Raps but at the same time I lean toward the depth the Wiz have with their big men.  John Wall and Bradley Beal going toe-to-toe with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan every night should be highly entertaining.  This series is going to be a war and get really testy at times.  I can see it going either way but since I have to pick someone I’ll go with the better defensive and rebounding side.  Look for Paul Pierce to steal a game too.  Washington in 6. 

Milwaukee at Chicago – Who would have thought before the season that the Bucks would end up being better defensively (2^nd to 11^th in efficiency) than the Bulls?  The combined length of Michael Carter-Williams, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo and John Henson is just scary when deployed together.  That said I’m not sure where Milwaukee is going to go when they need a clutch basket and the intensity is high.  Chicago will finally have all their guys available at the same time but Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Kirk Hinrich are still banged up.  This is probably going to be a really ugly series to watch outside of The Greek Freak making his post season debut.  The Bulls will have a game where they can’t throw it in the ocean but all they really need to do is find their groove before round two begins.  Chicago in 5. 

Boston at Cleveland – Some pundits seem to think that the Celtics are going to play them tough but I’m not drinking that Kool-Aid at all.  The only thing to watch out for here is if the Cavaliers make it out of the series healthy.  Cleveland in 4. 

Brooklyn at Atlanta – The Hawks won the season series 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 17.2 points per game.  So…um…yeah…there’s that.  Atlanta in 4. 

WEST 

New Orleans at Golden State – The Warriors led the league in defensive efficiency, were second in offensive efficiency all while beating their opposition by 10.1 points per game (also tops in the NBA).  Looking at this matchup I’m not really sure how the Pelicans can hurt them.  One thing NO does have going for them is that with the recent return of Jrue Holiday they finally have all hands on deck.  The Dubs really don’t have anyone that can deal with Anthony Davis, but is The Brow ready to dominate a series yet?  That’s probably the only reason to watch this one, to see if The Brow can win a game by himself.  GS in 4.  

Dallas at Houston – This is a tough one to call because the Rockets are missing two starters in Patrick Beverley and Donatas Montiejunas...not to mention Dwight Howard still being on a minutes restriction.  For the Mavericks Chandler Parsons and Devin Harris plan to give it a go but neither is 100%.  Dallas’ dirty little secret is that Rajon Rondo has actually made them worse offensively since his arrival.  Luckily for the Mavs Coach Rick Carlisle is a Jedi so maybe he can find something that works with Rondo in the playoffs.  Houston is going to ride James Harden and GM Daryl Morey’s analytics based offense as far as it takes them.  This is another toss up for me so I’ll roll with the best player in The Beard.  Rockets in 6. 

Portland at Memphis – This a battle of the walking wounded with the Trail Blazers missing Wesley Matthews and having Nicolas Batum, Arron Afflalo, Chris Kaman and C.J. McCollum all banged up.  For the Grizzles Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Tony Allen are all less than 100% too.  This would have been a fascinating matchup if both sides were healthy but as is Memphis just has way more quality depth at their disposal.  Portland has the best player in LaMarcus Aldridge but the Griz won the season series 4-0 by an average of 8.5 points per game.  Memphis in 5. 

San Antonio at Clippers – This is a juicy one with great individual matchups all over the place.  You’ve got Chris Paul-Tony Parker at the point, Blake Griffin-Tim Duncan in the pivot and Jamal Crawford-Manu Ginobili off the bench.  Los Angeles was 14-2 over the final month of the season and the Spurs 15-3.  The Clips led the league in offensive efficiency and SA was 3^rd in defensive efficiency.  Add all that up and it seems like a crime that these two squads are meeting in the first round.  One concern for the Spurs is the status of Tiago Splitter because without him they lack the size to keep DeAndre Jordan from the owning the paint on both ends.  (I’m assuming Duncan will be on Griffin most of the time.)  CP3 knows that’s he’s never been past the second round and he can see Father Time approaching in the distance now, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he annihilates Parker individually.  Since LA doesn’t really have any big-time wing players for Kawhi Leonard to defend if he can step up his offensive game that could be the x-factor in the series.  This is another one that is too close for me to call but I’ll go with the best player (CP3) and home court advantage.  Clips in 7.